Brexit: EU considers migration ‘emergency brake’ for UK

[stripy7]

legzr1 said:

The start of gentle persuasion and real politics.

I expect tears from a narrow majority under the impression the results of a rushed referendum were legally binding

I wasn't a leaver but I will defend the majority decision (aka as democracy) to the extreme.

[347Andy]

"I've heard this term many times now... what does it actually mean in the here and now?
People at the next election will all vote for Corbyn?"

Probably not most people are not that stupid, but UKIP would certainly pick up a few votes !

[Garvin]

Both Germany and France are in a much more perilous position than they like to lead us to believe, both financially and politically - their intransigence with regard to reform of the EU is now well and truly biting them in the butt. They are staring into the abyss now that their gamble that UK would remain with just a few crumbs off the table has failed and, despite all the political rhetoric, will be looking at ways to get UK to remain before Article 50 is triggered.

Whether they can put something together that might entice May to 'reconsider' (another referendum perhaps?) remains to be seen, but they have little option but to try. May has told them both that A50 won't be triggered before the end of this year so an interesting 5 or so months lies ahead.

[Derek Smith]

Garvin said:

Both Germany and France are in a much more perilous position than they like to lead us to believe, both financially and politically - their intransigence with regard to reform of the EU is now well and truly biting them in the butt. They are staring into the abyss now that their gamble that UK would remain with just a few crumbs off the table has failed and, despite all the political rhetoric, will be looking at ways to get UK to remain before Article 50 is triggered.

Whether they can put something together that might entice May to 'reconsider' (another referendum perhaps?) remains to be seen, but they have little option but to try. May has told them both that A50 won't be triggered before the end of this year so an interesting 5 or so months lies ahead.

The difficult position of the leaders of the EU is a double-edged sword. Their negotiators will be restricted by the need to keep the rest of the EU happy and this means not appearing to allow the UK favourable terms. Similarly, the UK needs to come out of the negotiations with something they can spin as rather bullish. If the EU blocks any Norwegian/Swiss style option then this might help them encourager les autres. The UK might be seen as important to them as an admiral to the navy, but there are times when importance is not persuasive.

For the UK, an healthy and strong EU, able to award benefits with largess would have been best I think.

I am not convinced the EU are putting this forward in order for us to remain. It is, if anything, disruptive for us. As mentioned by Halb, this has already led to a group of mps playing politics. Not something the negotiators need.

As many have said, this is a time when we, the UK, needs a strong unified presence. Next we'll find the EU bosses have made overtures to Scotland. This will help keep Spain in line for obvious reasons.

[legzr1]

stripy7 said:

I wasn't a leaver but I will defend the majority decision (aka as democracy) to the extreme.

Yes, yes. Good for you.

Just thought I'd repeat the point that the results of a referendum can be taken on board and then totally ignored.

I'm not saying it would be an easy decision but a few well worded lies (emblazoned on a bus for example) might convince a few

[Jockman]

legzr1 said:

Yes, yes. Good for you.

Just thought I'd repeat the point that the results of a referendum can be taken on board and then totally ignored.

I'm not saying it would be an easy decision but a few well worded lies (emblazoned on a bus for example) might convince a few

If the EU were to come back with an outstandingly brilliant bespoke deal, better than anything that has ever been on the table before, a deal that was acceptable to the majority of voters........would you thank the Brexiteers?

Or would you put a negative spin on it?

[jjlynn27]

Jockman said:

If the EU were to come back with an outstandingly brilliant bespoke deal, better than anything that has ever been on the table before, a deal that was acceptable to the majority of voters........would you thank the Brexiteers?

Or would you put a negative spin on it?

I'd say thanks, and that I was wrong. Deal including free movement and free access to sm, sure I'd say yes, bring it. To be really 'outstandingly' brilliant it would include few other bits too.

[alfie2244]

Jockman said:

If the EU were to come back with an outstandingly brilliant bespoke deal, better than anything that has ever been on the table before, a deal that was acceptable to the majority of voters........would you thank the Brexiteers?

Or would you put a negative spin on it?

Kind of we won't get a divorce after all but stay together in an open marriage which will be cheaper and better for the kids....that sort of brilliant bespoke deal you mean? Yeh that will work won't it.

[Northern Munkee]

Who exactly is floating this? Anyone with any clout or a EU MP grouping we've never heard of? Smacks of trying to undermine TM's and the electorate's resolve "that Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it" with some Tory wets wiping out her majority.

Alternatively this could be viewed as exactly what Boris originally floated at the outset, but was dropped after all the Remainers and their media friends poured st on, Vote Out, to Stay In after a 2nd genuine negotiation.

I'm sure there are plenty of other narratives (spin) on this, to take your pick, depending on your prejudices.

Incidentally could someone clarify something for me is there a difference between "maintaining access to the single market" the same as "tariff free access to the EU"? I hear different phrases used by different politicians and wonder if there is a subtle or less subtle distinction.

[jjlynn27]

tariffs are only one, the crudest barrier to access to free access to single market. You can't possibly know if someone is spinning or not, unless they clarify what they exactly mean. What you consider 'u-turn' will also depend on your position.

[Northern Munkee]

jjlynn27 said:

tariffs are only one, the crudest barrier to access to free access to single market. You can't possibly know if someone is spinning or not, unless they clarify what they exactly mean. What you consider 'u-turn' will also depend on your position.

Yeah that's sort of what I thought it must be a distinction, just trying to understand the degrees of what "Brexit means Brexit" may mean, and degrees of free movement which would broadly appear to be the flip side of the quid pro quo.

So conceivably "maintain full access to the single market" might (rather unlikely) mean, in the room, input on the rules, but full free movement of people", through EEA/EFTA/Norway reg by fax/paying in/Swiss/Canada, free movement of labour, to "tariff free access to the single market, not writing the rules, not paying in, to visa access" to the nuclear options of WTO access to the single market.

[jjlynn27]

Northern Munkee said:

Yeah that's sort of what I thought it must be a distinction, just trying to understand the degrees of what "Brexit means Brexit" may mean, and degrees of free movement which would broadly appear to be the flip side of the quid pro quo.

So conceivably "maintain full access to the single market" might (rather unlikely) mean, in the room, input on the rules, but full free movement of people", through EEA/EFTA/Norway reg by fax/paying in/Swiss/Canada, free movement of labour, to "tariff free access to the single market, not writing the rules, not paying in, to visa access" to the nuclear options of WTO access to the single market.

You are bungling a lot of options into the same box. For example, Norway has access to single market for financial services, while Switzerland doesn't. Canada, obviously, don't have free movement of labour but rather other tariffs applied to products. French cheese is taxed at 400% for consumption in Norway, while Norway fish is taxed at 12% in EU. So a lot of options, so Brexit means Brexit could mean a lot of different things. The whole 'emergency brake' story, afaik, is from Observer, but I can't find original story there. Think we'll have to wait to see what'll pan out.

[legzr1]

Jockman said:

If the EU were to come back with an outstandingly brilliant bespoke deal, better than anything that has ever been on the table before, a deal that was acceptable to the majority of voters........would you thank the Brexiteers?

You think that's how the idea of ignoring the referendum result would be sold?


Oh, and thank you

[Murph7355]

Halb said:

Brexit: EU considers migration ‘emergency brake’ for UK for up to seven years
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/24/brex...
...

I don't understand why any time limit needs to be put on or an "emergency brake" pulled. I don't think anyone is suggesting zero immigration from the EU. Just control of it. Why is that a problem for the rest of the EU? It makes no sense, UNLESS you harmonise all your policy ("minimum wage", benefits, taxation etc).

[Northern Munkee]

jjlynn27 said:

Northern Munkee said:

Yeah that's sort of what I thought it must be a distinction, just trying to understand the degrees of what "Brexit means Brexit" may mean, and degrees of free movement which would broadly appear to be the flip side of the quid pro quo.

So conceivably "maintain full access to the single market" might (rather unlikely) mean, in the room, input on the rules, but full free movement of people", through EEA/EFTA/Norway reg by fax/paying in/Swiss/Canada, free movement of labour, to "tariff free access to the single market, not writing the rules, not paying in, to visa access" to the nuclear options of WTO access to the single market.

You are bungling a lot of options into the same box. For example, Norway has access to single market for financial services, while Switzerland doesn't. Canada, obviously, don't have free movement of labour but rather other tariffs applied to products. French cheese is taxed at 400% for consumption in Norway, while Norway fish is taxed at 12% in EU. So a lot of options, so Brexit means Brexit could mean a lot of different things. The whole 'emergency brake' story, afaik, is from Observer, but I can't find original story there. Think we'll have to wait to see what'll pan out.

Not bundling, just rolling through a list of versions of Brexit I've heard.

[Anglade]

///ajd said:

Is this to make us stay in?

Interesting.

No.

It's not to make us stay in the EU - that ship will sail - but it's a way to allow us to maintain access to the single market without allowing complete freedom of movement.

It's still Brexit - but the kind of Brexit-lite that I suspect Boris, et al. always wanted.

I for one would be delighted if this were to happen as I suspect it would minimise the economic implications of leaving the EU; but within the context of still being allowed to arrange our own trade deals with the rest of the World...

[king arthur]

Isn't this the "Liechtenstein" option as espoused by Richard North? EEA membership with an emergency brake on immigration?

[jjlynn27]

Northern Munkee said:

Not bundling, just rolling through a list of versions of Brexit I've heard.

Wasn't meant as a criticism, but as an observation. Some of the options are quite different, I'm myself trying to figure out which one gives what. And there is A LOT to get through. Quite interesting to read.

[FiF]

Northern Munkee said:

Incidentally could someone clarify something for me is there a difference between "maintaining access to the single market" the same as "tariff free access to the EU"? I hear different phrases used by different politicians and wonder if there is a subtle or less subtle distinction.

Can't speak for others, but for me maintaining access to the single market means not just tariff free, but also mutual recognition of standards, and other technical barriers to trade.

[Jockman]

legzr1 said:

Jockman said:

If the EU were to come back with an outstandingly brilliant bespoke deal, better than anything that has ever been on the table before, a deal that was acceptable to the majority of voters........would you thank the Brexiteers?

You think that's how the idea of ignoring the referendum result would be sold?


Oh, and thank you

Yup. Hence the "acceptable to the majority of voters" bit.

You're more than welcome.