tesla , the future ?

[Jonesy23]

RobDickinson said:

Jonesy23 said:

No one in the main part of the industry is going to release a product where known shortcomings in design result in predicable deaths.

Lowering risk, we already have a lot of road deaths.

Every major auto maker is heavily into self driving tech. it wont be perfect especially in the early years,

The vast vast majority of deaths are down to operator error. No liability on the manufacturer or defect in the product, conceptual or otherwise.

This doesn't mean that anyone will accept an imperfect solution that kills people just because the overall toll is 99% lower. The manufacturers won't want the liability, the engineers (at least any of the good ones) won't want the criminal or moral liability, and the potential customers (at least the majority not blinded by the shiny) won't accept something that probably won't kill them.

Make it work to an appropriate level of safety and reliability - fine. Rush in and do some half arsed solution because you think 'it'll do, we'll work the bugs out later' and things will end badly.

[otolith]

wc98 said:

i don't think there are lots of people looking for ev's to fail. i think there are a lot of people that think there are huge infrastructure and power supply issues to solve before we make the step to ev's being the vehicle of choice .
they are a great option as a daily commuter for those doing regular journeys to and from a place of work and those that rarely travel far. the way the average virtue signalling city council thinks these days this sector will need to expand rapidly as city bans for ice become the norm. although if the aforementioned council actually did some research they would find the "green" credentials do not stack up in a lot of areas.

once the big boys of the industry stop playing at it tesla may well be toast anyway. how in hells name they can justify the price for what they currently produce i have no idea. yes batteries are expensive, but they are basically an empty fuel tank, that currently are not up to lasting the life of the vehicle. i always thought one of the benefits of an electric car would be a drop in price from a similar spec ice vehicle as there is a huge reduction in moving parts and electronics. yes , i am a bit naive at times.

the main good news story from tesla for me is they are an american company, so at least it is not the uk tax payers buck this time.

I think there are plenty on PH who have a knee jerk reaction to green pinko commie EV nonsense, although I suspect more of then drive four cylinder diesels than V8s. I also think that the transition will take a very long time without clear signals from government that they will be willing to address issues like grid capacity and public charging infrastructure, but that’s exactly what we’ve seen lately. With government buy-in, I think it’s pretty much inevitable.

[otolith]

300bhp/ton said:

As I say. I have nothing against EV’s and I’m a convert to electric power for RC cars, planes and helicopters. Even my lawn mower is battery operated. And I probably have way more 18650 Li-ion batteries than most average households.

But the reality is. Lots and lots of people simply cannot charge an electric car at work or home. I see this in the village I live in, the nearest town and all the places I’ve worked at in the past 10 years.

If you can’t charge them. They are not fit for purpose. And lots and lots of people do drive well over 70 miles a day. Which for most of the EV’s is the practical limit of their range under good conditions.

Dunno. I could easily charge my cars, and so could everyone on my street. My neighbour works for Mitsubishi and had a charging point fitted for their plug in hybrid thing (told me I should get one too while they were free, couldn’t be arsed, thinking now I am selling the house that I screwed up there). Spent this weekend with friends who easily could too - they actually have a Passat PHEV. He doesn’t charge it at home because it’s a company car and it costs him nothing to charge it at public chargers. His partner said she took the piss when he got it (it’s not a toaster, why do you need to plug it in) but admitted she actually really likes driving it. I thought it was nice to be driven in, very quiet at town speeds and quick enough. Their neighbours have a Model S.

My feeling is that hybrids will come to dominate the market, and as the electric range increases and the petrol contribution decreases people will come to resent occasionally having to put fuel in them until eventually most people can get a car and arrange their lives such that the petrol engine is just an unwanted lump of metal they’re dragging around with them.

There are issues for people living where parking is limited, but they are essentially solved - anywhere you have street lighting, you can put charging points. I do think there will come a time where there are places where it’s simply impractical to have a car, because it’s impractical to run charging and the differential between the running costs of EVs and ICEs is such that only people who can’t afford a car live there. It’s just going to be a rebalancing of where the slums are, but if I were investing in property it’s definitely something I would consider.

[turbobloke]

otolith said:

wc98 said:

i don't think there are lots of people looking for ev's to fail. i think there are a lot of people that think there are huge infrastructure and power supply issues to solve before we make the step to ev's being the vehicle of choice .
they are a great option as a daily commuter for those doing regular journeys to and from a place of work and those that rarely travel far. the way the average virtue signalling city council thinks these days this sector will need to expand rapidly as city bans for ice become the norm. although if the aforementioned council actually did some research they would find the "green" credentials do not stack up in a lot of areas.

once the big boys of the industry stop playing at it tesla may well be toast anyway. how in hells name they can justify the price for what they currently produce i have no idea. yes batteries are expensive, but they are basically an empty fuel tank, that currently are not up to lasting the life of the vehicle. i always thought one of the benefits of an electric car would be a drop in price from a similar spec ice vehicle as there is a huge reduction in moving parts and electronics. yes , i am a bit naive at times.

the main good news story from tesla for me is they are an american company, so at least it is not the uk tax payers buck this time.

I think there are plenty on PH who have a knee jerk reaction to green pinko commie EV nonsense, although I suspect more of then drive four cylinder diesels than V8s. I also think that the transition will take a very long time without clear signals from government that they will be willing to address issues like grid capacity and public charging infrastructure, but that’s exactly what we’ve seen lately. With government buy-in, I think it’s pretty much inevitable.

That cylinder angle sure is a compelling point baseless old hat generalisation with group smear to go, top work! The previous example was only a few hours back and we really needed another.

Politicians bought in long ago, what's needed is a lot more money (taxpayers') not more hot air; it may well be forthcoming but there are still pressures on gov't spending to give pause for thought. If busting a budget gut on EVs was one of Corbyn's think-of-a-number spending plans it didn't get as much airtime as his other remarkable economic insights, why on earth not?!

otolith said:

My feeling is that hybrids will come to dominate the market, and as the electric range increases and the petrol contribution decreases people will come to resent occasionally having to put fuel in them until eventually most people can get a car and arrange their lives such that the petrol engine is just an unwanted lump of metal they’re dragging around with them.

That was looking half reasonable up to the emotive give-away. Not that hybrids and EVs won't proliferate, so far political will has been enough for that with a few bribes to help things along.

[anonymous-user]

otolith said:

Dunno. I could easily charge my cars, and so could everyone on my street.

That depends on the rate you'll all be charging at, how many at the same time and the rating of the supply to your street. Have you really worked that out? Of course it's true that as yet unavailable smart chargers talking to each other could balance the load on a line to below it's rating and of course everyone won't need to charge every night or at the same time but these are all problems that need to be addressed and can be, but as yet they haven't been.

otolith said:

There are issues for people living where parking is limited, but they are essentially solved - anywhere you have street lighting, you can put charging points.

That's just made up. There's absolutely no way you can run the required cabling for a street of chargers down old street light conduits. Besides street lights aren't spaced every car apart. Do you have any idea how thick (and expensive) cables rated to run a whole street of chargers would be? This is crazy talk, not to mention a carbon copy of the last Tesla thread. As has already been pointed out; out of town/supermarket/work fast charging stations are a far better solution outside of new towns with new electrical infrastructure, than charging at home.

Anyway, slightly back on topic; is tesla the future? I hope so. Especially if that means god awful shopping trolleys like the Leaf and i3 aren't.

Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 17th October 01:47

[RobDickinson]

fblm said:

That's just made up. There's absolutely no way you can run the required cabling for a street of chargers down old street light conduits. Besides street lights aren't spaced every car apart. Do you have any idea how thick (and expensive) cables rated to run a whole street of chargers would be? This is crazy talk, not to mention a carbon copy of the last Tesla thread. As has already been pointed out; out of town/supermarket/work fast charging stations are a far better solution outside of new towns with new electrical infrastructure, than charging at home.

Yep utterly impossible, shame its already been done.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/london-st...

They wont be fast chargers, just low wattage trickle charge meant for overnight topups I guess

https://youtu.be/rKaEhBjt1ls

"They charge at about 5 kW, or 16 amps, not super fast but overnight charging is all most drivers need."

Edited by RobDickinson on Tuesday 17th October 01:46

[otolith]

RE: kerbside charging - they’re doing it, right now. Not fast charging, that requires more current, but fast charging is the fossil fuel mindset of run it empty and fill it up quick. EV usage is going to be about trickle charging it for the 22 hours a day you don’t use it.

RE: cylinders - sorry, I have a //m straight six and an 8500RPM NA four pot (and a filthy 3.0 V6 remapped diseasel) and would absolutely love a V8 and realistically could live with one (I have lived with a wankel) - but most people bemoaning EV drivetrains (including most of those on PH ) don’t, they’ve got nasty turbocharged four pot petrols or diesels, which are both objectively and subjectively utterly inferior to a good EV drivetrain. I can entirely sympathise with someone saying they don’t want to give up their high revving NA 4 and manual gearbox or their V8 for an electric, but a 2.0 TDI or a modern turbo 4 with a DSG or pretty much anything above 3-series sized where the sound insulation kills the engine noise completely - nah, that’s bks. You’ve got a nasty engine and a boring gearbox or something where is makes no frigging difference, and it’s just machismo speaking.

[anonymous-user]

RobDickinson said:

Yep utterly impossible, shame its already been done.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/london-st...

They wont be fast chargers, just low wattage trickle charge meant for overnight topups I guess

Come on. How many of those can you put on one street? Think about it. That's a 4.6kW charger. A street with 10 lamp posts a side would need a 480A circuit! 480A at 240V! Does that mean anything to you? It's a solution that can only provide a tiny handful of locations in any area. It's so obviously not a solution beyond a few first adopters. Honestly, I just don't think you or many people appreciate how much power these cars need and the challenges of providing it to more than a handful of people at a time on circuits not designed for it.

otolith said:

...I can entirely sympathise with someone saying they don’t want to give up their high revving NA 4 and manual gearbox or their V8 for an electric, but a 2.0 TDI or a modern turbo 4 with a DSG or pretty much anything above 3-series sized where the sound insulation kills the engine noise completely - nah, that’s bks. You’ve got a nasty engine and a boring gearbox or something where is makes no frigging difference...

I agree. I doubt most people know or care what powertrain/capacity/configuration is in their car beyond petrol or diesel. Europe is a little weird, often putting the engine size on the bootlid but the rest of the world doesn't. I don't even know what capacity 2 of my cars are nor do I care any more than I care what sized motor my washing machine has. Petrol, diesel, electric... most of the time, who cares?

Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 17th October 02:53

[otolith]

fblm said:

I agree. I doubt most people know or care what powertrain/capacity/configuration is in their car beyond petrol or diesel. Europe is a little weird, often putting the engine size on the bootlid but the rest of the world doesn't. I don't even know what capacity 2 of my cars are nor do I care any more than I care what sized motor my washing machine has. Petrol, diesel, electric... most of the time, who cares?

That’s the reality of it. I think the emotional thing is a PH/car enthusiast thing, even amongst those of us who who drive really quite dull things. You only have to look at the transition to diesel to see how little the general public care about such things. They have more rational, sensible concerns about range and charging infrastructure, but range anxiety will be overcome by hydrids and there appears to be political will to solve charging issues.

[menguin]

Charging infrastructure becomes less of an issue when you see what the goal is: most people, motoring forum residents omitted, don't give a st about the car. They buy a car as a means to get from A to B. Sure, They buy into a brand, because marketing works and it applies from everything from water to ovens.

If an ownership proposition was either: outlay £5-£50k on a 1.5 ton car, find somewhere to store the car for most of the time that you're not using it, insure it for most of the time you're not using it and use it twice a day (on average), or pay a monthly fee to have a car self drive to your house whenever you need one, take you from a to b and vice versa, for a competitive price, which one will most choose?

Charging infrastructure isn't the future. Fleets of self driving pool cars is. People can still subscribe to the premium brand, pay for extra features, etc, but this is where the tech in the industry wants this to go.

[PRTVR]

RobDickinson said:

google/Waimo are very risk adversed, take it slow, use well known/mapped streets in good weather etc.

Trick will be navigating roadworks in heavy rain at night etc

Very true, my son has a XC90 whilst not been self drive it's close, driving back from the lake District he went over Hardknott pass, at a few points the car lost the plot, engaging diff locks and the dashboard was flashing like it was Christmas,even telling him he was been overtaken, if it was fully self drive perhaps they will have to limit them to main roads and avoid problem areas till the software improved,
eventually we will get there with electric vehicles,there is some interesting research going on, Graphene research into batteries or capacitors are producing good results, practically instantaneous charging may be possible or at least as fast as it takes you to fill your petrol tank.
https://futurism.com/scientists-develop-better-bat...

The more I read about Graphene the more I am amazed at the possibilities.

[Sensei Rob]

Until an electric vehicle wins Le Mans, I'm unconvinced.

[RobDickinson]

The good thing with the tesla setup (probably all the more advanced ones) is it improves and uses the fleet data to fix things.

Like when you raise the suspension for bumps it remembers for you, or when you have to correct the self drive it figures it out and shares that with all the other cars. Its learning and mapping even when you are not in autopilot too. Its a system setup to grow and learn as people drive.

[Catatafish]

menguin said:

Charging infrastructure becomes less of an issue when you see what the goal is: most people, motoring forum residents omitted, don't give a st about the car. They buy a car as a means to get from A to B. Sure, They buy into a brand, because marketing works and it applies from everything from water to ovens.

If an ownership proposition was either: outlay £5-£50k on a 1.5 ton car, find somewhere to store the car for most of the time that you're not using it, insure it for most of the time you're not using it and use it twice a day (on average), or pay a monthly fee to have a car self drive to your house whenever you need one, take you from a to b and vice versa, for a competitive price, which one will most choose?

Charging infrastructure isn't the future. Fleets of self driving pool cars is. People can still subscribe to the premium brand, pay for extra features, etc, but this is where the tech in the industry wants this to go.

Being self-driven also frees up more time to consume products and services - look at whos developing these things.

[PRTVR]

Sensei Rob said:

Until an electric vehicle wins Le Mans, I'm unconvinced.

But the point is electric cars are means of moving people around, they invoke no emotion, I would hate to watch ev racing, for me it's just soulless, nobody is going to wind down their Windows at traffic lights to listen to a EV as happens if you drive a V8, if you mean battery life I would not be so sure, the next 5 years are going to be interesting.

[V8 Fettler]

The widespread use of a shared fleet of autonomous electric cars trundling along the main roads will lead to halcyon days for enthusiasts driving old technology vehicles on obscure backroads. But for how long?

[PRTVR]

V8 Fettler said:

The widespread use of a shared fleet of autonomous electric cars trundling along the main roads will lead to halcyon days for enthusiasts driving old technology vehicles on obscure backroads. But for how long?

When the police have no need to catch speeding motorists they will just cover the other roads in speed bumps, maybe people will start hacking the autonomous cars, I can see a problem for getaway drivers, stood outside a bank looking at your phone to find the next car available is 10 minutes away

[BenjiS]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

Of course. They won’t wear black and white striped jumpers and balaclavas, and carry shooters. They wear hoodies, drink Redbull, and tap at keyboards in the dark.

[anonymous-user]

Those dudes sound like NPE posters. Scayree!

[menousername]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

Disagree with this. If it was simple convenience it would have been replaced a long long time ago.

Part of it is the joy of driving. Part of it is similar to our innate desire for home ownership.

I read an article the other day and a comment made that the car has offered us a safe, personal space for ourselves and our family, tailored to our preferences, complete with our own music, dvd players, bluetooth connectivity, "infotainment" etc etc. It has become much more than just a convenient way of getting from A-B.

The reason it has not already been replaced is the same reason we mortgage ourselves to the eyes to own a house- we are not good at sharing. We are not good at cooperating. We desire that safe space of our own and the car is, rightly or wrongly, an extension of that.

Viewed objectively with our thinking brain, the fact that we cling on to it in the face of increasing costs, increasing speed cameras, conjestion, parking charges etc, does seem irrational. Viewed in the context of millions of years of evolution, instinct, survival, its quite clear everything we do is with the end-goal of achieving a safe and defined space for our families. We crave ownership.

Hence, IT nerds in San Fran thinking all we want is an app that hails a cab do not get it. 25 y/o coders living inner-city still paying off their student loans think we want what they want which is low cost travel for the rare times they travel. In 10 years when they have a family and soare cash those same coders will be looking for exactly what everyone else craves - a house in the burbs, a car, and 2.4 plus a dog