Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 8
Discussion
Edinburger said:
As this article said... like it or not, Brexit will change the terms on which any independence referendum would be fought. Britain, including Scotland, will be out. If Scotland tried to rejoin after independence, issues such as the currency, borders and the UK single market would rise quickly up the agenda. See https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan...
I'd have thought currency, borders and the UK market are fairly significant things that should be making up part of their independence campaign, rather than things to figure out as part of attempting to rejoin the EU?Edited by Edinburger on Saturday 18th January 11:58
psi310398 said:
While the SNP remains the dominant force in Scottish politics, a further referendum must surely remain likely whatever was said about a once-in-generation chance the last time round? It might not be 'right' but, in practical terms, I can't see how it can be resisted.
Simply because the majority don't want it, poll after poll show little or no change in support. Why should Scotland have to put up with another hate-filled campaign, dividing families and friends, for the ill thought out dreams of a minority just because they can't accept democracy?"At last month’s General Election, 68.1 per cent of the Scottish electorate turned out. Of that 68.1 per cent, 45 per cent voted Nat.
That’s just over 30 per cent of the total electorate. Or 1,242,084 out of 4,053,140."
The future of this country shouldn't be based on who shouts loudest.
psi310398 said:
While the SNP remains the dominant force in Scottish politics, a further referendum must surely remain likely whatever was said about a once-in-generation chance the last time round? It might not be 'right' but, in practical terms, I can't see how it can be resisted.
Talk of a further referendum will be as sure as the sun rising because it is the mast that the SNP have pinned themselves to and it is what their core support (who don't dwell too much on policy because policy basics never mind its intricacies elude them) want to hear.Resisting it is exceptionally easy and framed in law that the SNP and the Scottish Government are obliged to follow. You are falling for an SNP narrative that anyone giving the issue more than casual observance can see through.
The practical facts are this - while the SNP state that a vote for them is not a vote for independence (as Nicola did, repeatedly, very recently) and the need for a s.30 order still exists then many many Scots will feel safe voting for the SNP for many other reasons (Labour are s
t, anti-Toryism etc. etc.) safe in the knowledge independence isn't happening today, or tomorrow.Moreover, continued resistance to re-running the referendum seems to be the more popular stance or at the very least moot as despite repeated knock-backs since 2014 (plus Brexit, plus Conservative election victory) and the shrill claims of Fatty Blackford it is not driving 'the Scottish people' into the arms of support for independence.
As I said, the issue now seems to be more about getting into the position to have the plebiscite than making the case for winning it. The SNP are receding in their demands rather than advancing.
The only ones who don't believe the above are the SNats who have convinced themselves 'the Union' is on the verge of collapse due to external forces and they are the tipping point ('tick tock'
). What someone needs to remind them is that the 2014 independence referendum was granted (not earned) and by a discredited politician who made more than a few mistakes in his career that everyone else is determined to move on from. 2014 and 2016 were what they were, and 'lessons are being learned'.Edited by Evercross on Sunday 19th January 12:32
Alpacaman said:
psi310398 said:
While the SNP remains the dominant force in Scottish politics, a further referendum must surely remain likely whatever was said about a once-in-generation chance the last time round? It might not be 'right' but, in practical terms, I can't see how it can be resisted.
Simply because the majority don't want it, poll after poll show little or no change in support. Why should Scotland have to put up with another hate-filled campaign, dividing families and friends, for the ill thought out dreams of a minority just because they can't accept democracy?"At last month’s General Election, 68.1 per cent of the Scottish electorate turned out. Of that 68.1 per cent, 45 per cent voted Nat.
That’s just over 30 per cent of the total electorate. Or 1,242,084 out of 4,053,140."
The future of this country shouldn't be based on who shouts loudest.
total control over everything, why some people think this would be a great idea for Scotland is just beyond comprehension.
If you think the SNP are making a pigs erse running Scotland just now, image how bad it would become when they only
have themselves to answer to, chaos and disaster would reign supreme. FFS Scotland...wake up.
psi310398 said:
I can't see how it can be resisted.
It's very easily resisted. May said no. Boris said no. That's basically it.Empty vessels make the most noise, and it's incumbent on Sturgeon to make the noise to pay lip service to satisfying her hordes. But ultimately her hands are tied, she's got no cards to play. The real government knows it, so just tells her to p
s off, and she's stuck.Or she's not stuck, she's able to show the plebs that she's 'trying' but big bad wastemonster isn't playing fair with poor wee Scotland. And as the sitting leader the status quo does her no harm personally.
technodup said:
And as the sitting leader the status quo does her no harm personally.
Which is what the house of cards is really resting on. It all depends now on how long the ambitious arm of her party are willing to leave her sitting there, not going forward.ETA. Angus Robertson, former Westminster leader for the SNP (Blackford's predecessor), has been the first to break ranks and say openly that IndyRef 2 will definitely not be happening this side of the 2021 Scottish elections. As someone with no current elected position he has nothing to lose by saying this, but he has also stated he will be running for election in 2021!
My reckoning is that, knowing Nicola can't hold on to her position forever, he has taken one look at the future SNP leadership hopefuls and reckons he could wipe the floor with them. I'm inclined to agree.
Salmond staged a similar comeback from the SNP wilderness after all!
Edited by Evercross on Sunday 19th January 13:29
technodup said:
t's very easily resisted. May said no. Boris said no. That's basically it.
Empty vessels make the most noise, and it's incumbent on Sturgeon to make the noise to pay lip service to satisfying her hordes. But ultimately her hands are tied, she's got no cards to play. The real government knows it, so just tells her to ps off, and she's stuck.
Or she's not stuck, she's able to show the plebs that she's 'trying' but big bad wastemonster isn't playing fair with poor wee Scotland. And as the sitting leader the status quo does her no harm personally.
Let's look at that certainty again after the next election...Empty vessels make the most noise, and it's incumbent on Sturgeon to make the noise to pay lip service to satisfying her hordes. But ultimately her hands are tied, she's got no cards to play. The real government knows it, so just tells her to p
s off, and she's stuck.Or she's not stuck, she's able to show the plebs that she's 'trying' but big bad wastemonster isn't playing fair with poor wee Scotland. And as the sitting leader the status quo does her no harm personally.
psi310398 said:
Let's look at that certainty again after the next election...
The Westminster government has already set the mark for after the next election (assuming you mean 2021).What exactly do the Conservatives have to lose from the above? If anything, stating their position in advance closes off the SNP line of stating a win at Holyrood gives them a mandate. A mandate for what - to keep asking and getting told no?
Here's the bit - unless the SNP stand candidates in every UK constituency and get a majority at Westminster there is no way they can force the issue. They are reliant on a compliant Westminster government, which will never be the Conservatives despite Cameron's aberration, and two of the Labour leadership candidates have already made their position clear on the issue (plus if Labour do ever win a majority at Westminster they have no good reason to capitulate either).
Hoping for a Labour minority government (which Sturgeon was gambling on in December) in the distant future really is betting on very long odds. Time is now their enemy as they have lost control of the agenda. What are their other options, more marches, civil war, UDI.....
Edited by Evercross on Sunday 19th January 14:53
Evercross said:
The Westminster government has already set the mark for after the next election (assuming you mean 2021).
What exactly do the Conservatives have to lose from the above? If anything, stating their position in advance closes off the SNP line of stating a win at Holyrood gives them a mandate. A mandate for what - to keep asking and getting told no?
If the SNP does win a thumping majority in 2021, many Scots won't really care what London says about anything, whether Unionists like it or not. And London can't really ignore such a result.What exactly do the Conservatives have to lose from the above? If anything, stating their position in advance closes off the SNP line of stating a win at Holyrood gives them a mandate. A mandate for what - to keep asking and getting told no?
And the Tories will not want to fight the next UK general election in Scotland with the SNP hanging every misfortune that has befallen Scotland since Brexit on them.
I simply do not believe that the push for a referendum (even by a minority) can be long resisted. We'll see.
psi310398 said:
If the SNP does win a thumping majority in 2021, many Scots won't really care what London says about anything, whether Unionists like it or not. And London can't really ignore such a result.
Explain the mechanism by which they can be forced not to ignore it.psi310398 said:
And the Tories will not want to fight the next UK general election in Scotland with the SNP hanging every misfortune that has befallen Scotland since Brexit on them.
A lot of 'what if's' there, plus the Conservatives will be prioritising holding on to their new friends in the North of England rather than trying to win over the 'Tory Scum Out' faction of the SNats who have laid out their stall unambiguously.The problem for the SNP will be hanging on in their limbo while more and more people realise that the SNP are waiting for more s
t to befall Scotland rather than using their powers to do something about it. The longer they are told 'no chance' the more the SNP are going to have to start rowing.Edited by Evercross on Sunday 19th January 15:02
psi310398 said:
Evercross said:
The Westminster government has already set the mark for after the next election (assuming you mean 2021).
What exactly do the Conservatives have to lose from the above? If anything, stating their position in advance closes off the SNP line of stating a win at Holyrood gives them a mandate. A mandate for what - to keep asking and getting told no?
If the SNP does win a thumping majority in 2021, many Scots won't really care what London says about anything, whether Unionists like it or not. And London can't really ignore such a result.What exactly do the Conservatives have to lose from the above? If anything, stating their position in advance closes off the SNP line of stating a win at Holyrood gives them a mandate. A mandate for what - to keep asking and getting told no?
And the Tories will not want to fight the next UK general election in Scotland with the SNP hanging every misfortune that has befallen Scotland since Brexit on them.
I simply do not believe that the push for a referendum (even by a minority) can be long resisted. We'll see.
Just because we don't march up and down waving flags every week it doesn't mean unionists in Scotland are any less passionate. Coupled with the fact the SNP are unable to come up with even the basics of how we would function as a independent country, the chances of a referendum any time soon are tiny.
Alpacaman said:
The chances of a referendum any time soon are tiny.
Correction - the chances of a referendum any time soon are zero. The chances of the SNP winning one were it to be held in the near future are tiny, despite Brexit/Toarees/Boris.hutchst said:
Yes, but a resurgent (and credible) Labour party will hurt the SNP more than the Tories.
..and I am sure they know it. When the SNP are fighting on two front they will be screwed. Right now they are getting an easy time of it because of a genuine rival that is weak and another rival is isn't engaging because it is currently playing on a different battlefield and has nothing to gain by splitting its forces.Just to put a wee perspective on things, my social-media-vocal SNat relative has often expressed the opinion (possibly accurate) that the only reason Brexit happened was because David Cameron wanted to appease the vocal and irritating Euro-sceptic wing of the Conservative party and fend off UKIP. I would be wasting my time therefore pointing out him that ergo the 2014 Scottish independence referendum only happened because David Cameron wanted to appease a vocal and irritating Alex Salmond and fend off the SNP. It was a move of political expediency by a particular Prime Minister. There is nothing in the rules that says a win by the SNP in 2021 must lead to a repeat of what happened after their win in 2011,
Edited by Evercross on Sunday 19th January 15:27
Blib said:
With a majority of 80, Scotland is not that important.
some Scots that have always given the union the nod,, but with the prospect of another
15 years of Tory Westminster rule, and Labour broken, it may be the final straw ?
Before you know it the YES vote has gone up 5 points, and the SNP have a massive majority in Holyrood
What happens then ?
Cantaloupe said:
Blib said:
With a majority of 80, Scotland is not that important.
some Scots that have always given the union the nod,, but with the prospect of another
15 years of Tory Westminster rule, and Labour broken, it may be the final straw ?
Before you know it the YES vote has gone up 5 points, and the SNP have a massive majority in Holyrood
What happens then ?
psi310398 said:
And the Tories will not want to fight the next UK general election in Scotland with the SNP hanging every misfortune that has befallen Scotland since Brexit on them.
The SNP have been blaming the Tories for everything bad FOREVER. It's just noise to us now. Sturgeon got into politics because Thatcher and hasn't shut up about it since.Situation normal.
Cantaloupe said:
Before you know it the YES vote has gone up 5 points, and the SNP have a massive majority in Holyrood
What happens then?
Nothing as far as referenda are concerned, because a devolved assembly does not have the powers to conduct referenda on constitutional matters.What happens then?
To go back to one of your earlier questions....
Cantaloupe said:
Evercross said:
Thirdly - electoral rules have changed which is why the question on an indyref ballot must now be different (despite Nippy's attempts to dodge the rules, thankfully now pointed out to her as legally dodgy).
Sources ?At the committee stage MSPs of all parties were critical of the proposal that the bill would allow for any previous question approved by the Electoral Commission to be used in any future referenda. The committee stated this meant that Scotland was effectively no longer under Electoral Commission scrutiny and this could lead to legal challenges in future. The SNP were of course hoping for a re-use of the 2014 question, along with its 'Yes/No' answer that has subsequently been ruled incompetent for any future UK referenda by the Electoral Commission in 2017.
The compromise that was reached was that the Electoral Commission rules that existed at the beginning of the current Scottish Parliamentary term (2016) would apply for the remainder of the term (2021) but any changes to rules introduced since would apply thereafter.
Another reason why Nippy and co were in such a hurry, and why they are seething because they know another window of opportunity they thought they had fenegled for themselves is closing.
said:
Nothing as far as referenda are concerned, because a devolved assembly does not have the powers to conduct referenda on constitutional matters.
Yes, I know that, but in a hypothetical situation with all polls showing a 50/50 % Yes-No for 6 consecutive months, plus Holyrood having a overwhelming working SNP majority, would it be wise, prudent, counter-productive, perverse even
with all the world watching agog, for a Tory administration to still stubbornly refuse another, not unreasonable
request for another ref ?
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