Should remainers vote for the Libs?
Discussion
Mario149 said:
And yet as far as I can tell, anyone who's ever worked in trade in the EU is saying it's still going to take years (7+) to finalize and get anything in place and even then it won't be nearly as good. I'll happily take everything with a pinch of salt, but when you have those that have worked in the area saying one thing, and a few politicians who haven't saying another, I'm going to go with the people who have experience in the area.
Really? I've done heaps of trade in the EU and I don't subscribe to that view. Mario149 said:
I can only speak for myself, but the broad strokes are remaining in the EEA allows the dust to settle and guarantees minimum disruption to the economy.
May I respecfully ask if that "disruption to the economy" refers to any of the following negative predictions previously served up so ending the post-Brexit (vote) boom:- the chance of another, sorry a first, emergency budget with tens of £billions in cuts and taxes
- employment falling to a ten year low, rather than the ten year high we got in the face of Osborn telling us there would be half a million jobs lost if we voted Leave
- another, no make that a first, year-long post-referendum recession (CMD and TBG)
- more expensive mortgages rather than less expensive mortgages as happened
- a record low in the FTSE 100 rather than the record high we've seen
- house prices tumbling as opposed to growing as now (whether FTBs like it or not)
- Nissan moving out as opposed to building their new car plant in Sunderland as now
- the end of western politican civilisation as we know it
Or, perhaps, is stronger growth being referred to as a 'disruption'?
As I see it.....
Those that wished to remain in the EU say that Brexit means tough times ahead for the UK economy.
Well, I will not argue against the theory that there might well be a downturn in the UK economy.
However one would require a crystal ball to know where we,or the EU,will be in 10 years time.
What we do know is where we are now.
The biggest upheaval that has affected the lives of the majority of the average Joes In the UK has been the fallout from the financial crisis.
That crisis has affected pensions,savings rates and the future inflation that QE will exacerbate amongst other things.
By allowing the expansion of the EU to countries whose economies and cultures are incompatible with the stronger Northern European countries the economies of those weaker countries has caused a lot of pain to their populace by way of high youth unemployment and general austerity measures.
The EU has responded to these problems by increasing those austerity measures and kicking the ball down the road for,in truth,they don't have any real solutions.
The open borders policy has had its benefits but has also brought both financial,structural and political problems.
I am in business and through my business career I have had to make choices,some of which have borne fruit others have not.
What I have learnt from my experience in business is that whinging about "what is" offers no benefits.
Roll your sleeves up,work hard and get on with the job in hand,that's the answer.
Those that wished to remain in the EU say that Brexit means tough times ahead for the UK economy.
Well, I will not argue against the theory that there might well be a downturn in the UK economy.
However one would require a crystal ball to know where we,or the EU,will be in 10 years time.
What we do know is where we are now.
The biggest upheaval that has affected the lives of the majority of the average Joes In the UK has been the fallout from the financial crisis.
That crisis has affected pensions,savings rates and the future inflation that QE will exacerbate amongst other things.
By allowing the expansion of the EU to countries whose economies and cultures are incompatible with the stronger Northern European countries the economies of those weaker countries has caused a lot of pain to their populace by way of high youth unemployment and general austerity measures.
The EU has responded to these problems by increasing those austerity measures and kicking the ball down the road for,in truth,they don't have any real solutions.
The open borders policy has had its benefits but has also brought both financial,structural and political problems.
I am in business and through my business career I have had to make choices,some of which have borne fruit others have not.
What I have learnt from my experience in business is that whinging about "what is" offers no benefits.
Roll your sleeves up,work hard and get on with the job in hand,that's the answer.
andymadmak said:
Mario149 said:
And yet as far as I can tell, anyone who's ever worked in trade in the EU is saying it's still going to take years (7+) to finalize and get anything in place and even then it won't be nearly as good. I'll happily take everything with a pinch of salt, but when you have those that have worked in the area saying one thing, and a few politicians who haven't saying another, I'm going to go with the people who have experience in the area.
Really? I've done heaps of trade in the EU and I don't subscribe to that view. All I can recall is various Remain campaigners (many of whom have never had a productive job, let alone been senior trade figures) saying the average FTA takes 7 years, when asked what the average lead time is for an FTA where there is already free trade and mutual recognition of standards then there's a noticeable silence...
I've asked the question many times on the Economic impact thread, I've not yet had an answer.
Leggy said:
Simple question. Would they be the best opposition to keep the Conservatives in check?
It depends on your local seat, in a marginal constituency between Labor and Tory the voter might reason that a Liberal Democrat vote would be wasted and instead vote for a Labor candidate (who presumably did not back Brexit) and might reasonably influence a much softer approach.Sway said:
andymadmak said:
Mario149 said:
And yet as far as I can tell, anyone who's ever worked in trade in the EU is saying it's still going to take years (7+) to finalize and get anything in place and even then it won't be nearly as good. I'll happily take everything with a pinch of salt, but when you have those that have worked in the area saying one thing, and a few politicians who haven't saying another, I'm going to go with the people who have experience in the area.
Really? I've done heaps of trade in the EU and I don't subscribe to that view. All I can recall is various Remain campaigners (many of whom have never had a productive job, let alone been senior trade figures) saying the average FTA takes 7 years, when asked what the average lead time is for an FTA where there is already free trade and mutual recognition of standards then there's a noticeable silence...
I've asked the question many times on the Economic impact thread, I've not yet had an answer.
Getting a negotiated deal that represents a fair terms for both parties takes a lot longer. Brussels does want a deal with the UK but they must reach an agreement that can be reconciled with a much broader group including people like the Finnish finance minister Petteri Orpo who will push for punitive measures. Prime Minister May will be hoping to have a pro-brexit majority elected in parliament that will push through whatever EU deal they can get without resistance as, in the end, the UK will have to come to an agreement with terms that will be concessional on both sides and within the time limits allowed. That's negotiation.
speedy_thrills said:
Leggy said:
Simple question. Would they be the best opposition to keep the Conservatives in check?
It depends on your local seat, in a marginal constituency between Labor and Tory the voter might reason that a Liberal Democrat vote would be wasted and instead vote for a Labor candidate (who presumably did not back Brexit) and might reasonably influence a much softer approach.andymadmak said:
Mario149 said:
And yet as far as I can tell, anyone who's ever worked in trade in the EU is saying it's still going to take years (7+) to finalize and get anything in place and even then it won't be nearly as good. I'll happily take everything with a pinch of salt, but when you have those that have worked in the area saying one thing, and a few politicians who haven't saying another, I'm going to go with the people who have experience in the area.
Really? I've done heaps of trade in the EU and I don't subscribe to that view. I've built a fair few driveways but I would think it would take me quite a while to build a motorway.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/brac...
This is how long FTAs take
footnote said:
andymadmak said:
Mario149 said:
And yet as far as I can tell, anyone who's ever worked in trade in the EU is saying it's still going to take years (7+) to finalize and get anything in place and even then it won't be nearly as good. I'll happily take everything with a pinch of salt, but when you have those that have worked in the area saying one thing, and a few politicians who haven't saying another, I'm going to go with the people who have experience in the area.
Really? I've done heaps of trade in the EU and I don't subscribe to that view. I've built a fair few driveways but I would think it would take me quite a while to build a motorway.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/brac...
This is how long FTAs take
What's the average lead time for an FTA where those prior conditions are already in existence?
footnote said:
Pooh said:
footnote said:
Pooh said:
ou sont les biscuits said:
I What I care about is having a Parliament that functions as a Parliament for the next two years as we negotiate Brexit. And I'll be casting my vote in a tactical way to ensure insofar as I can with my single vote, is that the show isn't being driven by the swivel eyed loon faction in the Conservative party.
Genuinely curious how you propose to do that? Voting Lib Dem won't reduce the influence of the people you call loons. I have already asked how the Lim Dems will have any significant influence over a majority Conservative government, which is the most likely outcome of the election but nobody has been able to tell me. If your local Conservative candidate is not a "swivel eyed loon" then surely voting Conservative would be the best way to dilute the influence of the loons?
The election result is not a foregone conclusion
The media and Conservatives and PH expect a stonking great Tory majority, but if the Conservatives don't get a stonking great majority it will obviously be seen as a lack of support for May's Brexit plans by the public.
So, a vote for a candidate of any opposition party is a vote against May's Brexit.
And you never know, if enough people do that, and 48% of those that could be bothered to vote were opposed to Brexit, there may not be a tory majority at all.
I think that's a fairly clear explanation of why people vote for parties other than the governing party but you'll probably maintain otherwise.
This is not just my opinion, Sky News had a guy from a major bank on today saying that they have upgraded their outlook for the pound because an increased Conservative majority reduces the chance of a hard Brexit for exactly the reasons I stated earlier.
A "Real World" that elected Trump.
The "Real World" is no longer as reliable as it used to be - the real world is very undpredictable indeed.
The voters decide who wins the election - not you, not my grandad's dog, not Betty Turpin, not a random banker on Sky News - although they all have just one vote, like me, like you - (except my grandad's dog) (and Betty Turpin)
Sway said:
That's how long FTAs take where there is not existing free trade, nor mutual recognition of standards.
What's the average lead time for an FTA where those prior conditions are already in existence?
This situation is unique. Obviously having common standards at the moment helps, though one still has to address the bigger question of how they will be kept in line in the future, particularly when the UK is supposed to be "taking back control".What's the average lead time for an FTA where those prior conditions are already in existence?
But surely the biggest difference between this negotiation and normal trade negotiations is nothing to do with trade; it's the political stakes. The political stakes are far, far higher than normal and that makes the negotiation far more risky. It is going to be far harder for a party to publicly back down and give concessions if it's managed to get itself backed into a corner. The negotiation is not going to be the usual fare of a bunch of anonymous civil servants talking for a few years in private followed by a photo op for some political leaders as they sign the deal and swap biros.
Mario149 said:
And yet as far as I can tell, anyone who's ever worked in trade in the EU is saying it's still going to take years (7+) to finalize and get anything in place and even then it won't be nearly as good. I'll happily take everything with a pinch of salt, but when you have those that have worked in the area saying one thing, and a few politicians who haven't saying another, I'm going to go with the people who have experience in the area.
You are pessimist remoaner. Making deals is easy. And if they don't accept that we hold all the cards, we'll walk. That'll teach them. We'll concentrate on Commonwealth, where they are just waiting to do the best, the most beautiful deal with/for us because of shared history and everything. If they don't play ball, we'll send them few black belt six sigma and few purple belt kaizen specialists to explain to them systemic risks and outcomes built into the unwillingness to accept a deal presented to them. https://www.ft.com/content/f224b684-2513-11e7-8691...
https://www.ft.com/content/5fef7796-1914-11e7-a53d...
Edited by jjlynn27 on Friday 21st April 12:31
Sway said:
footnote said:
andymadmak said:
Mario149 said:
And yet as far as I can tell, anyone who's ever worked in trade in the EU is saying it's still going to take years (7+) to finalize and get anything in place and even then it won't be nearly as good. I'll happily take everything with a pinch of salt, but when you have those that have worked in the area saying one thing, and a few politicians who haven't saying another, I'm going to go with the people who have experience in the area.
Really? I've done heaps of trade in the EU and I don't subscribe to that view. I've built a fair few driveways but I would think it would take me quite a while to build a motorway.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/brac...
This is how long FTAs take
What's the average lead time for an FTA where those prior conditions are already in existence?
Also, what other global benchmarks are there for such things? The US seems to take significantly less time to do its deals, for example.
footnote - do you have some technical issue with your browser that only lets you read chathamhouse.org and pistonheads.com?
Pooh said:
footnote said:
Pooh said:
footnote said:
Pooh said:
ou sont les biscuits said:
I What I care about is having a Parliament that functions as a Parliament for the next two years as we negotiate Brexit. And I'll be casting my vote in a tactical way to ensure insofar as I can with my single vote, is that the show isn't being driven by the swivel eyed loon faction in the Conservative party.
Genuinely curious how you propose to do that? Voting Lib Dem won't reduce the influence of the people you call loons. I have already asked how the Lim Dems will have any significant influence over a majority Conservative government, which is the most likely outcome of the election but nobody has been able to tell me. If your local Conservative candidate is not a "swivel eyed loon" then surely voting Conservative would be the best way to dilute the influence of the loons?
The election result is not a foregone conclusion
The media and Conservatives and PH expect a stonking great Tory majority, but if the Conservatives don't get a stonking great majority it will obviously be seen as a lack of support for May's Brexit plans by the public.
So, a vote for a candidate of any opposition party is a vote against May's Brexit.
And you never know, if enough people do that, and 48% of those that could be bothered to vote were opposed to Brexit, there may not be a tory majority at all.
I think that's a fairly clear explanation of why people vote for parties other than the governing party but you'll probably maintain otherwise.
This is not just my opinion, Sky News had a guy from a major bank on today saying that they have upgraded their outlook for the pound because an increased Conservative majority reduces the chance of a hard Brexit for exactly the reasons I stated earlier.
A "Real World" that elected Trump.
The "Real World" is no longer as reliable as it used to be - the real world is very undpredictable indeed.
The voters decide who wins the election - not you, not my grandad's dog, not Betty Turpin, not a random banker on Sky News - although they all have just one vote, like me, like you - (except my grandad's dog) (and Betty Turpin)
Perhaps, I'm misunderstanding you, or you mean something different.
But the implication of all your posts is that there is no point in voting for any opposition at all because you already know who the likely winner will be.
I'm sure you know that if everybody followed your lead, and voted Tory because the media say they are going to win - then of course, they would win - it would be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I'm not sure from what you say, whether you genuinely perceive there to be no value at all in the existence of any opposition whatsoever - that you seem to be advocating the creation of a one party state - on the basis that they are going to win anyway?
There's a story that illustrates what I'm reading in your posts - which may not be what you intend to say at all:
Two soldiers are guarding a checkpoint in a city under curfew. Everybody has to be indoors by 8pm at risk of death.
It's 7.45pm when a man crosses through the checkpoint. They watch him go down the road and then one soldier raises his rifle and shoots the man in the back.
'What did you do that for?' the other soldier asks. 'It's only 7.45pm.'
'Yes,' the first soldier replies, 'But I know where he lives and he'd never have made it by 8pm'
It does sound to me, that you would happily not have an election at all, because you already "know" on the basis of your beliefs, a couple of polls and a load of media hyperbole, you'd happily reinstall Theresa May at No10 with an absolute majority.
Is that what you're saying?
Pooh said:
I am not sure why you have such difficulty understanding a simple point, lets just wait and see who wins the election, I fully expect the Conservatives will get an increased majority, the lib Dems will pick up a few seats, the SNP will lose a few and labour will lose a lot. We will see who's correct in a few weeks.
And... final point... it's worth remembering Edward Heath called a snap election in 1974 confident of a bigger majority but ended up with a hung parliament... just saying!footnote said:
Pooh said:
I am not sure why you have such difficulty understanding a simple point, lets just wait and see who wins the election, I fully expect the Conservatives will get an increased majority, the lib Dems will pick up a few seats, the SNP will lose a few and labour will lose a lot. We will see who's correct in a few weeks.
And... final point... it's worth remembering Edward Heath called a snap election in 1974 confident of a bigger majority but ended up with a hung parliament... just saying!
Nor had Heath just been made PM after a Leave referendum result etc.
jjlynn27 said:
Mario149 said:
And yet as far as I can tell, anyone who's ever worked in trade in the EU is saying it's still going to take years (7+) to finalize and get anything in place and even then it won't be nearly as good. I'll happily take everything with a pinch of salt, but when you have those that have worked in the area saying one thing, and a few politicians who haven't saying another, I'm going to go with the people who have experience in the area.
You are pessimist remoaner. Making deals is easy. And if they don't accept that we hold all the cards, we'll walk. That'll teach them. We'll concentrate on Commonwealth, where they are just waiting to do the best, the most beautiful deal with/for us because of shared history and everything. If they don't play ball, we'll send them few black belt six sigma and few purple belt kaizen specialists to explain to them systemic risks and outcomes built into the unwillingness to accept a deal presented to them. https://www.ft.com/content/f224b684-2513-11e7-8691...
https://www.ft.com/content/5fef7796-1914-11e7-a53d...
Edited by jjlynn27 on Friday 21st April 12:31
turbobloke said:
footnote said:
Pooh said:
I am not sure why you have such difficulty understanding a simple point, lets just wait and see who wins the election, I fully expect the Conservatives will get an increased majority, the lib Dems will pick up a few seats, the SNP will lose a few and labour will lose a lot. We will see who's correct in a few weeks.
And... final point... it's worth remembering Edward Heath called a snap election in 1974 confident of a bigger majority but ended up with a hung parliament... just saying!Nor had Heath just been made PM after a Leave referendum result etc.
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