How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

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FocusRS3

3,411 posts

92 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
devnull said:
Well, the rates went up then - .75%

I have slack sellers of a property who are dragging their heels to complete, so it looks like my current 1.9% offer is out of the window as it expires in Oct.
The rates rise was nailed on and the lenders I'm sure had already priced this in to mortgage deals.

I am trying to push for my sellers to rent to get my deal done too.....

Alfa numeric

3,027 posts

180 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
superlightr said:
Alfa numeric said:
an internal door that was literally ripped off its hinges by an 8 year old girl...
I blame the kids too wink

It really is our kids that are wrecking our house...….no point in having walls repainted, new doors put on etc and looking nice as the children are just not careful enough. When they move out will be the time.

Lucky my parents built the house and have solid internal walls and stuff that even kids cant destroy. Its just cosmetic.
The door hinges weren't screwed in- it was the ensuite door in a room we'd not moved in to yet, she just pulled it open and if I hadn't been there to catch it she would have ended up underneath it!

makaveli144

378 posts

140 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
People go for new builds as the whole thing is so much easier imo. You have no seller faffing about as they are desperate to sell it so will throw solicitors etc at you. Which I appreciate isn't ideal but if your after an easier house purchase journey it works.

Couple that with all the incentives that can be negotiated and help to buy the cost of the process is so much less.


If your are a first time buyer or havent banked loads of equity then a new build is the best option.

I'm in a new build and it isn't ideal, I would have liked a character property. But it is our first home, it's incredibly well insulated (costs £50 average for gas and electricity) in a 4 bedroom house.

kingston12

5,486 posts

158 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
A massive £50k reduction on one of the ones I posted in the last thread:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

It makes you wonder if the buyers prepared to part with well over £1m for a bog standard semi in Surbiton have started to dry up.

That said, it has been joined by an even more expensive one:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prop...

That's not been on as long, but obviously not a sealed bid job so the estate agent might have to do some work.

stongle

5,910 posts

163 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
devnull said:
Well, the rates went up then - .75%

I have slack sellers of a property who are dragging their heels to complete, so it looks like my current 1.9% offer is out of the window as it expires in Oct.
Big chance rates coming down later in the year. This was a dumb rise. Although the headline numbers said do it, and the hawks have cried wolf a lot in the pass; there is no way the economy will support significant rises. The savers won't see it, and the borrowers have been hit 20,40,50 quid in the pocket a month with declining job security. Genius.

0.2-0.4 growth is FA, emplyment number heald up by gig econony? poss poor rate decision.

FocusRS3

3,411 posts

92 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
stongle said:
Big chance rates coming down later in the year. This was a dumb rise. Although the headline numbers said do it, and the hawks have cried wolf a lot in the pass; there is no way the economy will support significant rises. The savers won't see it, and the borrowers have been hit 20,40,50 quid in the pocket a month with declining job security. Genius.

0.2-0.4 growth is FA, emplyment number heald up by gig econony? poss poor rate decision.
With respect, the MPC Voted 9-0 in favour of the rise. There is less than zero chance rates will be getting lowered for some time... That vote tells you there is likely to be further rate rises.


Edited by FocusRS3 on Thursday 2nd August 12:58

turbobloke

104,009 posts

261 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
FocusRS3 said:
stongle said:
Big chance rates coming down later in the year. This was a dumb rise. Although the headline numbers said do it, and the hawks have cried wolf a lot in the pass; there is no way the economy will support significant rises. The savers won't see it, and the borrowers have been hit 20,40,50 quid in the pocket a month with declining job security. Genius.

0.2-0.4 growth is FA, emplyment number heald up by gig econony? poss poor rate decision.
With respect, the MPC Voted 9-0 in favour of the rise. There is less than zero chance rates will be getting lowered for some time... That vote tells you there is likely to be further rate rises.
Possibly one more 25bp rise to provide wiggle room before rates start to fall again around brexit?

wisbech

2,980 posts

122 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
From elsewhere - Perth WA prices are now down 14%, and still sliding.

gibbon

2,182 posts

208 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
FocusRS3 said:
With respect, the MPC Voted 9-0 in favour of the rise. There is less than zero chance rates will be getting lowered for some time... That vote tells you there is likely to be further rate rises.


Edited by FocusRS3 on Thursday 2nd August 12:58
I'm with Strongle on this.

They have hiked as they backed themselves into a corner and would loose huge market respect / control sould they AGAIN not hike, with the double benefit of having somewhere to actually cut from once things worse.

In a normal scenario, we dont have the numbers to justify a hike imho.

hyphen

26,262 posts

91 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
makaveli144 said:
If your are a first time buyer or havent banked loads of equity then a new build is the best option.

I'm in a new build and it isn't ideal, I would have liked a character property. But it is our first home, it's incredibly well insulated (costs £50 average for gas and electricity) in a 4 bedroom house.
Are the rest of the residents also volvo drivers with accountancy or similar jobs? tongue out

As a FTB who hadn't banked loads of equity, I bought a character home!

FocusRS3

3,411 posts

92 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
gibbon said:
I'm with Strongle on this.

They have hiked as they backed themselves into a corner and would loose huge market respect / control sould they AGAIN not hike, with the double benefit of having somewhere to actually cut from once things worse.

In a normal scenario, we dont have the numbers to justify a hike imho.
I think WE are saying the same thing. Strongel was suggesting there would be a 'cut'.. The start of your post reads differently.

stuckmojo

2,982 posts

189 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Christ, it's almost McKinsey rates smile

Keep the viewing comments coming, please, they make good reading.

wisbech

2,980 posts

122 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
gibbon said:
I'm with Strongle on this.

They have hiked as they backed themselves into a corner and would loose huge market respect / control sould they AGAIN not hike, with the double benefit of having somewhere to actually cut from once things worse.

In a normal scenario, we dont have the numbers to justify a hike imho.
Unemployment getting to historically low levels - inflation over target - a weak currency. Numbers are there I think.

tannhauser

1,773 posts

216 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
FocusRS3 said:
stongle said:
Big chance rates coming down later in the year. This was a dumb rise. Although the headline numbers said do it, and the hawks have cried wolf a lot in the pass; there is no way the economy will support significant rises. The savers won't see it, and the borrowers have been hit 20,40,50 quid in the pocket a month with declining job security. Genius.

0.2-0.4 growth is FA, emplyment number heald up by gig econony? poss poor rate decision.
With respect, the MPC Voted 9-0 in favour of the rise. There is less than zero chance rates will be getting lowered for some time... That vote tells you there is likely to be further rate rises.
Agreed, though I wouldn't be surprised if they raise them slightly then lower them in "times of need".

And the borrowers who cannot afford the extra £20-50 a month on mortgage interest, and have failed to factor possible future increases into their repayment plans? Fck 'em.

stongle

5,910 posts

163 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
FocusRS3 said:
stongle said:
Big chance rates coming down later in the year. This was a dumb rise. Although the headline numbers said do it, and the hawks have cried wolf a lot in the pass; there is no way the economy will support significant rises. The savers won't see it, and the borrowers have been hit 20,40,50 quid in the pocket a month with declining job security. Genius.

0.2-0.4 growth is FA, emplyment number heald up by gig econony? poss poor rate decision.
With respect, the MPC Voted 9-0 in favour of the rise. There is less than zero chance rates will be getting lowered for some time... That vote tells you there is likely to be further rate rises.


Edited by FocusRS3 on Thursday 2nd August 12:58
Less than 0%, you wish. Rate rise on back of .4% growth and manufactured unemployment number. Vacant leadership on brexit - seriously. The MPC was in a corner this time around. Unless the govt get real o a Brexit strategy (either in or out), the economy has a very very strong chance of falling into-'ve growth this year. Manufacturing data is poor and we don't have an (announced) strategy on Financial Services preventing investment. This is sleep walking to death.


stuckmojo

2,982 posts

189 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
stongle said:
Less than 0%, you wish. Rate rise on back of .4% growth and manufactured unemployment number. Vacant leadership on brexit - seriously. The MPC was in a corner this time around. Unless the govt get real o a Brexit strategy (either in or out), the economy has a very very strong chance of falling into-'ve growth this year. Manufacturing data is poor and we don't have an (announced) strategy on Financial Services preventing investment. This is sleep walking to death.

Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.

Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.

p1stonhead

25,568 posts

168 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
FocusRS3 said:
stongle said:
Big chance rates coming down later in the year. This was a dumb rise. Although the headline numbers said do it, and the hawks have cried wolf a lot in the pass; there is no way the economy will support significant rises. The savers won't see it, and the borrowers have been hit 20,40,50 quid in the pocket a month with declining job security. Genius.

0.2-0.4 growth is FA, emplyment number heald up by gig econony? poss poor rate decision.
With respect, the MPC Voted 9-0 in favour of the rise. There is less than zero chance rates will be getting lowered for some time... That vote tells you there is likely to be further rate rises.
Possibly one more 25bp rise to provide wiggle room before rates start to fall again around brexit?
yes heard lots saying this today. Rising so that they can be sufficiently dropped post brexit.

FocusRS3

3,411 posts

92 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
stuckmojo said:
Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.

Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Yup, exactly this......

tannhauser

1,773 posts

216 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
FocusRS3 said:
stuckmojo said:
Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.

Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Yup, exactly this......
Glad to hear I'm not alone in my thinking.

ashleyman

6,987 posts

100 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
I have never understood why anyone would want to buy a new build, you are basically getting cardboard walls and weetbix squeeky floors with the risk of affordable housing scum next door. Add in the total lack of parking in the street once every ones children are teenagers and every house has four cars plus a tiny, overlooked garden and it seems madness to me.

Yet all the millenials at my work will only consider a brand new house (Obviously with the white, leased bottom of the range Mercedes A class on the drive)

If you try and explain that they would be better off buying a bigger, better built older house with a decent garden they look at you as if you are an idiot.

I can only assume they are not prepared to do any work to a property so are happy to pay over the odds. The trouble is it will start to look tatty in five years due to the terrible build quality and nobody prepared to do any maintenance.
Me neither until I started actually looking to buy something. I'd absolutely love to live in a georgian/victorian/edwardian terrace or semi. ABSOLUTELY LOVE TOO, I simply can't afford one and probably won't for a long long time.

I think what people need to remember is us younguns are looking at new builds because we can get Help2Buy.

Mate of mine got a 3 bed terrace house on a new build estate and it's nice. Nice house, decent area but everything is built for someone else. Downstairs is very disabled friendly when they don't need any special requirements, no assigned parking etc... They got it because it's the only house they could afford. The other older stock was out of reach. The equity loan is what got them in a house and not a flat. They saved for 8 years whilst renting a council owned studio flat.

Even flats, 2 bed flat round here is £300k+. As i posted a few weeks back, those are out of my league but the new builds at £350k+ with help 2 buy loan are within reach. It's absolutely terrifying when you add up mortgage, equity loan, ground rent, service charge and the rest plus the prospect of interest rates increasing.

Saw some new builds Saturday just gone and the kitchen door handle came off in my hand. I just shoved it back in and walked away. I even asked the estate agent lady and the developer if the flats were finished or needed final snagging and they said why? do you see things that need doing - I pointed at loads of stuff - carpet not stuck down, gap in joins, mark on walls, paint on switchgear etc... They asked if I did this for work and totally avoided the question.

I'm well up for working on anything too. I spent today gutting my old bedroom at my parents house and disconnecting electrics and chasing new plugs and sockets etc... We're moving back to help my sick mum and using the opportunity to save more money for deposit.

Edited by ashleyman on Thursday 2nd August 18:53

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