How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

Author
Discussion

FocusRS3

3,411 posts

47 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
stuckmojo said:
Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.

Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Yup, exactly this......

tonker

56,983 posts

204 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Putting up rates. Like that's going to collect swing voters (borrowers). The old vote they way they always did. The middle aged are indebted. They swing elections. We clearly have one coming just after Brexit.

And even outside that, the MPC would be mad to meddle too much until anyone has clue at which way the wind will blow after (still may be "if") we leave and in what terms

tannhauser

1,185 posts

171 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
FocusRS3 said:
stuckmojo said:
Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.

Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Yup, exactly this......
Glad to hear I'm not alone in my thinking.

ashleyman

6,214 posts

55 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Joey Deacon said:
I have never understood why anyone would want to buy a new build, you are basically getting cardboard walls and weetbix squeeky floors with the risk of affordable housing scum next door. Add in the total lack of parking in the street once every ones children are teenagers and every house has four cars plus a tiny, overlooked garden and it seems madness to me.

Yet all the millenials at my work will only consider a brand new house (Obviously with the white, leased bottom of the range Mercedes A class on the drive)

If you try and explain that they would be better off buying a bigger, better built older house with a decent garden they look at you as if you are an idiot.

I can only assume they are not prepared to do any work to a property so are happy to pay over the odds. The trouble is it will start to look tatty in five years due to the terrible build quality and nobody prepared to do any maintenance.
Me neither until I started actually looking to buy something. I'd absolutely love to live in a georgian/victorian/edwardian terrace or semi. ABSOLUTELY LOVE TOO, I simply can't afford one and probably won't for a long long time.

I think what people need to remember is us younguns are looking at new builds because we can get Help2Buy.

Mate of mine got a 3 bed terrace house on a new build estate and it's nice. Nice house, decent area but everything is built for someone else. Downstairs is very disabled friendly when they don't need any special requirements, no assigned parking etc... They got it because it's the only house they could afford. The other older stock was out of reach. The equity loan is what got them in a house and not a flat. They saved for 8 years whilst renting a council owned studio flat.

Even flats, 2 bed flat round here is £300k+. As i posted a few weeks back, those are out of my league but the new builds at £350k+ with help 2 buy loan are within reach. It's absolutely terrifying when you add up mortgage, equity loan, ground rent, service charge and the rest plus the prospect of interest rates increasing.

Saw some new builds Saturday just gone and the kitchen door handle came off in my hand. I just shoved it back in and walked away. I even asked the estate agent lady and the developer if the flats were finished or needed final snagging and they said why? do you see things that need doing - I pointed at loads of stuff - carpet not stuck down, gap in joins, mark on walls, paint on switchgear etc... They asked if I did this for work and totally avoided the question.

I'm well up for working on anything too. I spent today gutting my old bedroom at my parents house and disconnecting electrics and chasing new plugs and sockets etc... We're moving back to help my sick mum and using the opportunity to save more money for deposit.

Edited by ashleyman on Thursday 2nd August 18:53

dom9

7,012 posts

165 months

Thursday 2nd August 2018
quotequote all
Offered £65k below asking on a little place near us (maybe £50k work to do)... no other offers, sellers chain about to collapse... might just happen. Smaller than we wanted but didn't want to overleverage before Brexit etc.

Also offered £85k less than asking on a house in Cobham (needed a LOAD of work, like £150k) and the sellers didn't bite... so we moved on. The garden area was HUGE for town centre.

These offers tend to be just over 10% below asking but they're not hugely overpriced (IMHO) as they are - they just need work for 'our taste'.

Maybe trying our luck since we found 'the perfect place', came up to the seller's number and then they decided not to move frown everywhere else feels like a compromise!

If this one doesnt happen (we'll know tomorrow), then I might take a month of for summer to end, see what happens with Brexit and then go again!

stongle

3,039 posts

118 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
FocusRS3 said:
stuckmojo said:
Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.

Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Yup, exactly this......
Shame the market doesn't agree with you and GBP falls. Worst performing major CCY on Thursday, 1% drop off that bat, only those who've been at the bong water thought we were getting 50bps hike. Options are super bearish (meaning no one is pricing in
Furture raises - any of that further raise nonsense Carney was trooping out no one beloeves).

GBP trades largely on sentiment, and noones buying it. Unfortunately the market agrees with my ahole of an opinion.

BREXIT is removing all the tools required to steer international CCY movements AND domestic demand cycle. Savers were never or are gonna see most if any of this raise so the nonsense comments on screw those with mortgages is typical I'll thought out PH tttery.

For property we seem to be driven now by need, supply (demand) and sentiment. National level property data will be all but useless even at regional level. Good street, schools etc, sellers market; anything compromised buyers market. Which is exactly how London seems to operate outside super prime.

All that saying, going long super prime London property may not be a bad trade right now. A potential Brexit outcome and something very absent from the news is what the UK does on services post Brexit. All discussion is on goods currently. If we crashout it's not inconceivable we do an insane deal on corporation tax (like errr Ireland) and certain regs to keep FS in London. London is the league above Paris and Frankfurt, it's competing with NYC and Hong Kong. We're pretty much the global centre of tax avoidance and money laundering anyway; may as well go full tilt on it.

If your open to foreign money and banking, watch the money come rolling in. Difficult policy to sell though, bankers save country from Brexit disaster (and also I hear why France and Germany are actually bricking it on Brexit and want to give us enough of a deal stopping us going full postal on services).


Edited by stongle on Friday 3rd August 07:40

p1stonhead

22,616 posts

123 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
stongle said:
FocusRS3 said:
stuckmojo said:
Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.

Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Yup, exactly this......
Shame the market doesn't agree with you and GBP falls. Worst performing major CCY on Thursday, 1% drop off that bat, only those who've been at the bong water thought we were getting 50bps hike. Options are super bearish (meaning no one is pricing in
Furture raises - any of that further raise nonsense Carney was trooping out no one beloeves).

GBP trades largely on sentiment, and noones buying it. Unfortunately the market agrees with my ahole of an opinion.

BREXIT is removing all the tools required to steer international CCY movements AND domestic demand cycle. Savers were never or are gonna see most if any of this raise so the nonsense comments on screw those with mortgages is typical I'll thought out PH tttery.

For property we seem to be driven now by need, supply (demand) and sentiment. National level property data will be all but useless even at regional level. Good street, schools etc, sellers market; anything compromised buyers market. Which is exactly how London seems to operate outside super prime.

All that saying, going long super prime London property may not be a bad trade right now. A potential Brexit outcome and something very absent from the news is what the UK does on services post Brexit. All discussion is on goods currently. If we crashout it's not inconceivable we do an insane deal on corporation tax (like errr Ireland) and certain regs to keep FS in London. London is the league above Paris and Frankfurt, it's competing with NYC and Hong Kong. We're pretty much the global centre of tax avoidance and money laundering anyway; may as well go full tilt on it.

If your open to foreign money and banking, watch the money come rolling in. Difficult policy to sell though, bankers save country from Brexit disaster (and also I hear why France and Germany are actually bricking it on Brexit and want to give us enough of a deal stopping us going full postal on services).

Edited by stongle on Friday 3rd August 07:40
I agree and think London will be promoted in any way it can be and regulations will rise or fall to accommodate those who want to get in from overseas.

Just what Brexiters voted for - to have London run away with things and leave the rest of the country behind, again.....

Its quite shocking that people thought those in power would ever care about anyone outside of London and the South East. They just wont and never will. That is also quite a sad fact though because they really should.




Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 3rd August 07:48

rovermorris999

4,674 posts

145 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
I agree and think London will be promoted in any way it can be and regulations will rise or fall to accommodate those who want to get in from overseas.

Just what Brexiters voted for - to have London run away with things and leave the rest of the country behind, again.....

Its quite shocking that people thought those in power would ever care about anyone outside of London and the South East. They just wont and never will. That is also quite a sad fact though because they really should.




Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 3rd August 07:48
Thank God for London and the south-east. Without them this country would be totally screwed. Have a look at where tax revenues are raised. If there's a boom there after Brexit then better than no boom. At least there'll be money to spend on the rest of the country. Just don't make me live there again!

Zonergem

1,352 posts

48 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
Eventually (maybe sooner than we think) demographic trends, Brexit consequences and the relentless rise of inequality are going to put a left-wing Labour government into power - they came a darn sight closer last year than expected - and then where's your London-centric financial services and oligarch piss-up going to be?

rovermorris999

4,674 posts

145 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
Ifs, buts and maybes. Who knows? I'm just hoping Corbyn stays as Labour leader as there's a smaller chance of them getting in. If he's replaced with someone more media-friendly then all bets are off.

stongle

3,039 posts

118 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
Zonergem said:
Eventually (maybe sooner than we think) demographic trends, Brexit consequences and the relentless rise of inequality are going to put a left-wing Labour government into power - they came a darn sight closer last year than expected - and then where's your London-centric financial services and oligarch piss-up going to be?
Its a thread on London House Prices, so FS js a big underlying factor; but here goes:

Ah yes the Corbyn and momentum Venezuala aspiration. Full retard.

What the country needs is:

1. Service (particularly Financial) and high tech industries protected and promoted by Govt policy, with the same levels of everyone else can go fk themselves as our (former) EU counterparts.

2. More fiscal policy - regeneration of areas outside London, coupled with a significant re-examination of how benefits are handed out. We solve our "lazy " problem once and full all. Remove the digital work / benefit switch and taper those returning to work in and ideally out of state dependency.

3. Sovereign wealth fund / investment vehicle (raise money cheaply on Financial markets, oh we just shot ourselves in the foot there!), to invest in UK plc and regions unable to self fund or develop themselves. Use investment parameters similar to Norges.

2 and 3 have been hinted at by Labour and both credible options to save the economy going into a death spiral. Unfortubately they cant help themselves, backed up by their momentum rabble. The more likely an idiot led Labour govt, capital flight becomes an issue. At that point we won't be worrying about house prices but the cost of spam.

HardtopManual

1,359 posts

122 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
I've been watching the market for "forever" houses in my neck of the woods (N21) since we moved here (renting) in 2015. 4 beds in decent nick on a good road used to go on for over a million and sell within weeks. Now, they seem to go on in the 900s, hang around for a month or two, drop into the 800s and go SSTC. A good number come back on. Do-er uppers aren't moving at all. I don't keep spreadsheets but drop from peak appears to be around 15% at this price point - double that for the multi-million pound mansions. I think we'll see a return at least to the 2009-2012 plateau, so another 10-15% from here. I wouldn't be surprised if they go a lot lower than that, but it depends on events. PM Corbyn and all bets are off.

turbobloke

89,898 posts

216 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
Zonergem said:
Eventually (maybe sooner than we think) demographic trends, Brexit consequences and the relentless rise of inequality are going to put a left-wing Labour government into power - they came a darn sight closer last year than expected - and then where's your London-centric financial services and oligarch piss-up going to be?
Inequality fell in 2010 and has stayed relatively level since. Some relentless rise that is.

Momentum's relentless rise in Labour ranks is another matter.

It's amazing that Corbyn's marxists didn't get in last time when fewer people than now appreciate just how much he was talking out of his poop chute including various astronomical bribes which have failed already.

Arguably there's less chance of them getting in next time.

aeropilot

21,424 posts

183 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
Arguably there's less chance of them getting in next time.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the voting public...........


BlackLabel

12,468 posts

79 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
Zonergem said:
Eventually (maybe sooner than we think) demographic trends, Brexit consequences and the relentless rise of inequality are going to put a left-wing Labour government into power - they came a darn sight closer last year than expected - and then where's your London-centric financial services and oligarch piss-up going to be?
And ironically London is a Labour stronghold now and is unlikely to return to the Tories again. 49 seats to Corbyn’s Labour vs 21 to the Tories was the London Westminster constituency breakdown last year.

Why is London so left wing? smile

turbobloke

89,898 posts

216 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
As Corby remains relevant to house prices - the ancient cyclist not the town - it's of relevance that demographics rather than offering the promise of victory actually don't help JC. The birth rate isn't rising enough to produce enough trotty students (see 2017 headline " Number of children being born in Britain hits 10-year low") and the prospects weren't good prior to that.



Hasn't the prospect of Brexit been discouraging immigration?

Meanwhile the older percentiles in the UK demographic are living and voting longer. It didn't work out last time for Corbyn. May represents the most immediate threat to house prices in terms of silver surfers becoming disenchanted over Brexit and other muddles leading to a lower oldie vote for the Conservatives.

stuckmojo

2,104 posts

144 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
stongle said:
Shame the market doesn't agree with you and GBP falls. Worst performing major CCY on Thursday, 1% drop off that bat, only those who've been at the bong water thought we were getting 50bps hike. Options are super bearish (meaning no one is pricing in
Furture raises - any of that further raise nonsense Carney was trooping out no one beloeves).

GBP trades largely on sentiment, and noones buying it. Unfortunately the market agrees with my ahole of an opinion.

BREXIT is removing all the tools required to steer international CCY movements AND domestic demand cycle. Savers were never or are gonna see most if any of this raise so the nonsense comments on screw those with mortgages is typical I'll thought out PH tttery.

For property we seem to be driven now by need, supply (demand) and sentiment. National level property data will be all but useless even at regional level. Good street, schools etc, sellers market; anything compromised buyers market. Which is exactly how London seems to operate outside super prime.

All that saying, going long super prime London property may not be a bad trade right now. A potential Brexit outcome and something very absent from the news is what the UK does on services post Brexit. All discussion is on goods currently. If we crashout it's not inconceivable we do an insane deal on corporation tax (like errr Ireland) and certain regs to keep FS in London. London is the league above Paris and Frankfurt, it's competing with NYC and Hong Kong. We're pretty much the global centre of tax avoidance and money laundering anyway; may as well go full tilt on it.

If your open to foreign money and banking, watch the money come rolling in. Difficult policy to sell though, bankers save country from Brexit disaster (and also I hear why France and Germany are actually bricking it on Brexit and want to give us enough of a deal stopping us going full postal on services).


Edited by stongle on Friday 3rd August 07:40
Short answer. Opinion: GBP fell because the Governor of the Bank of England stated that interest rates won't get back to their historical average of 5% for a very long time, and may rise slowly and very gradually. Which means they'll keep lagging the USD and FED policy and keep GBP down.

Shnozz

21,842 posts

227 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
stuckmojo said:
Short answer. Opinion: GBP fell because the Governor of the Bank of England stated that interest rates won't get back to their historical average of 5% for a very long time, and may rise slowly and very gradually. Which means they'll keep lagging the USD and FED policy and keep GBP down.
I didn't fully understand the need for this openness. To me it undermined any call for conservatism in the borrowing stakes for the masses and served to remove any doubt for the rest of the world that UK rates weren't worth investing in for a return.

What benefit is there to such openness? Reassurance?

ScotHill

813 posts

65 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
rovermorris999 said:
Thank God for London and the south-east. Without them this country would be totally screwed. Have a look at where tax revenues are raised. If there's a boom there after Brexit then better than no boom. At least there'll be money to spend on the rest of the country. Just don't make me live there again!
I reluctantly agree with this. After spending a week in the south east just the fact that there is building going on EVERYWHERE is an indication of how much economic activity there is. Even up in Cambridge, the road in from the north east seemed to have a mile of brownfield development going on, a lot of it commercial/industrial so not just box houses.

Contrast this to where I live where there are some new student halls going up and the neighbours had an extension a few years ago, and that's about it.

But yes, I couldn't live south east of a straight line drawn between Oxford and Peterborough (thus making it the shortest distance).

kingston12

3,130 posts

113 months

Friday 3rd August 2018
quotequote all
ScotHill said:
I reluctantly agree with this. After spending a week in the south east just the fact that there is building going on EVERYWHERE is an indication of how much economic activity there is. Even up in Cambridge, the road in from the north east seemed to have a mile of brownfield development going on, a lot of it commercial/industrial so not just box houses.
It's even worse in some parts unfortunately. We've got big problems ahead in my area (Kingston on the Surrey/London border) where literally thousands of new flats have been built with virtually no improvements to supporting infrastructure. It's a bit of a scandal really, but the real problems won't be felt until the developers are long gone and the council that approved it all have changed several times.