How far will house prices fall [volume 5]
Discussion
Offered £65k below asking on a little place near us (maybe £50k work to do)... no other offers, sellers chain about to collapse... might just happen. Smaller than we wanted but didn't want to overleverage before Brexit etc.
Also offered £85k less than asking on a house in Cobham (needed a LOAD of work, like £150k) and the sellers didn't bite... so we moved on. The garden area was HUGE for town centre.
These offers tend to be just over 10% below asking but they're not hugely overpriced (IMHO) as they are - they just need work for 'our taste'.
Maybe trying our luck since we found 'the perfect place', came up to the seller's number and then they decided not to move
everywhere else feels like a compromise!
If this one doesnt happen (we'll know tomorrow), then I might take a month of for summer to end, see what happens with Brexit and then go again!
Also offered £85k less than asking on a house in Cobham (needed a LOAD of work, like £150k) and the sellers didn't bite... so we moved on. The garden area was HUGE for town centre.
These offers tend to be just over 10% below asking but they're not hugely overpriced (IMHO) as they are - they just need work for 'our taste'.
Maybe trying our luck since we found 'the perfect place', came up to the seller's number and then they decided not to move
everywhere else feels like a compromise!If this one doesnt happen (we'll know tomorrow), then I might take a month of for summer to end, see what happens with Brexit and then go again!
FocusRS3 said:
stuckmojo said:
Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.
Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Yup, exactly this......Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Furture raises - any of that further raise nonsense Carney was trooping out no one beloeves).
GBP trades largely on sentiment, and noones buying it. Unfortunately the market agrees with my a
hole of an opinion.BREXIT is removing all the tools required to steer international CCY movements AND domestic demand cycle. Savers were never or are gonna see most if any of this raise so the nonsense comments on screw those with mortgages is typical I'll thought out PH t
ttery. For property we seem to be driven now by need, supply (demand) and sentiment. National level property data will be all but useless even at regional level. Good street, schools etc, sellers market; anything compromised buyers market. Which is exactly how London seems to operate outside super prime.
All that saying, going long super prime London property may not be a bad trade right now. A potential Brexit outcome and something very absent from the news is what the UK does on services post Brexit. All discussion is on goods currently. If we crashout it's not inconceivable we do an insane deal on corporation tax (like errr Ireland) and certain regs to keep FS in London. London is the league above Paris and Frankfurt, it's competing with NYC and Hong Kong. We're pretty much the global centre of tax avoidance and money laundering anyway; may as well go full tilt on it.
If your open to foreign money and banking, watch the money come rolling in. Difficult policy to sell though, bankers save country from Brexit disaster (and also I hear why France and Germany are actually bricking it on Brexit and want to give us enough of a deal stopping us going full postal on services).
Edited by stongle on Friday 3rd August 07:40
stongle said:
FocusRS3 said:
stuckmojo said:
Interesting opinion. I'd mention that the MPC need to look at inflation and currency, and these are both under threat from the US growth and USD performance, as well as the FED interest rates policy.
Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Yup, exactly this......Ideally, we should be above the US rates to protect the Pound. So I'd say there are more rate rises to come. Over borrowed mortgage holders? As above, fck'em.
Furture raises - any of that further raise nonsense Carney was trooping out no one beloeves).
GBP trades largely on sentiment, and noones buying it. Unfortunately the market agrees with my a
hole of an opinion.BREXIT is removing all the tools required to steer international CCY movements AND domestic demand cycle. Savers were never or are gonna see most if any of this raise so the nonsense comments on screw those with mortgages is typical I'll thought out PH t
ttery. For property we seem to be driven now by need, supply (demand) and sentiment. National level property data will be all but useless even at regional level. Good street, schools etc, sellers market; anything compromised buyers market. Which is exactly how London seems to operate outside super prime.
All that saying, going long super prime London property may not be a bad trade right now. A potential Brexit outcome and something very absent from the news is what the UK does on services post Brexit. All discussion is on goods currently. If we crashout it's not inconceivable we do an insane deal on corporation tax (like errr Ireland) and certain regs to keep FS in London. London is the league above Paris and Frankfurt, it's competing with NYC and Hong Kong. We're pretty much the global centre of tax avoidance and money laundering anyway; may as well go full tilt on it.
If your open to foreign money and banking, watch the money come rolling in. Difficult policy to sell though, bankers save country from Brexit disaster (and also I hear why France and Germany are actually bricking it on Brexit and want to give us enough of a deal stopping us going full postal on services).
Edited by stongle on Friday 3rd August 07:40
Just what Brexiters voted for - to have London run away with things and leave the rest of the country behind, again.....
Its quite shocking that people thought those in power would ever care about anyone outside of London and the South East. They just wont and never will. That is also quite a sad fact though because they really should.
Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 3rd August 07:48
p1stonhead said:
I agree and think London will be promoted in any way it can be and regulations will rise or fall to accommodate those who want to get in from overseas.
Just what Brexiters voted for - to have London run away with things and leave the rest of the country behind, again.....
Its quite shocking that people thought those in power would ever care about anyone outside of London and the South East. They just wont and never will. That is also quite a sad fact though because they really should.
Thank God for London and the south-east. Without them this country would be totally screwed. Have a look at where tax revenues are raised. If there's a boom there after Brexit then better than no boom. At least there'll be money to spend on the rest of the country. Just don't make me live there again!Just what Brexiters voted for - to have London run away with things and leave the rest of the country behind, again.....
Its quite shocking that people thought those in power would ever care about anyone outside of London and the South East. They just wont and never will. That is also quite a sad fact though because they really should.
Edited by p1stonhead on Friday 3rd August 07:48
Eventually (maybe sooner than we think) demographic trends, Brexit consequences and the relentless rise of inequality are going to put a left-wing Labour government into power - they came a darn sight closer last year than expected - and then where's your London-centric financial services and oligarch piss-up going to be?
Zonergem said:
Eventually (maybe sooner than we think) demographic trends, Brexit consequences and the relentless rise of inequality are going to put a left-wing Labour government into power - they came a darn sight closer last year than expected - and then where's your London-centric financial services and oligarch piss-up going to be?
Its a thread on London House Prices, so FS js a big underlying factor; but here goes: Ah yes the Corbyn and momentum Venezuala aspiration. Full retard.
What the country needs is:
1. Service (particularly Financial) and high tech industries protected and promoted by Govt policy, with the same levels of everyone else can go f
k themselves as our (former) EU counterparts.2. More fiscal policy - regeneration of areas outside London, coupled with a significant re-examination of how benefits are handed out. We solve our "lazy
" problem once and full all. Remove the digital work / benefit switch and taper those returning to work in and ideally out of state dependency.3. Sovereign wealth fund / investment vehicle (raise money cheaply on Financial markets, oh we just shot ourselves in the foot there!), to invest in UK plc and regions unable to self fund or develop themselves. Use investment parameters similar to Norges.
2 and 3 have been hinted at by Labour and both credible options to save the economy going into a death spiral. Unfortubately they cant help themselves, backed up by their momentum rabble. The more likely an idiot led Labour govt, capital flight becomes an issue. At that point we won't be worrying about house prices but the cost of spam.
I've been watching the market for "forever" houses in my neck of the woods (N21) since we moved here (renting) in 2015. 4 beds in decent nick on a good road used to go on for over a million and sell within weeks. Now, they seem to go on in the 900s, hang around for a month or two, drop into the 800s and go SSTC. A good number come back on. Do-er uppers aren't moving at all. I don't keep spreadsheets but drop from peak appears to be around 15% at this price point - double that for the multi-million pound mansions. I think we'll see a return at least to the 2009-2012 plateau, so another 10-15% from here. I wouldn't be surprised if they go a lot lower than that, but it depends on events. PM Corbyn and all bets are off.
Zonergem said:
Eventually (maybe sooner than we think) demographic trends, Brexit consequences and the relentless rise of inequality are going to put a left-wing Labour government into power - they came a darn sight closer last year than expected - and then where's your London-centric financial services and oligarch piss-up going to be?
Inequality fell in 2010 and has stayed relatively level since. Some relentless rise that is.Momentum's relentless rise in Labour ranks is another matter.
It's amazing that Corbyn's marxists didn't get in last time when fewer people than now appreciate just how much he was talking out of his poop chute including various astronomical bribes which have failed already.
Arguably there's less chance of them getting in next time.
Zonergem said:
Eventually (maybe sooner than we think) demographic trends, Brexit consequences and the relentless rise of inequality are going to put a left-wing Labour government into power - they came a darn sight closer last year than expected - and then where's your London-centric financial services and oligarch piss-up going to be?
And ironically London is a Labour stronghold now and is unlikely to return to the Tories again. 49 seats to Corbyn’s Labour vs 21 to the Tories was the London Westminster constituency breakdown last year. Why is London so left wing?
As Corby remains relevant to house prices - the ancient cyclist not the town - it's of relevance that demographics rather than offering the promise of victory actually don't help JC. The birth rate isn't rising enough to produce enough trotty students (see 2017 headline " Number of children being born in Britain hits 10-year low") and the prospects weren't good prior to that.
Hasn't the prospect of Brexit been discouraging immigration?
Meanwhile the older percentiles in the UK demographic are living and voting longer. It didn't work out last time for Corbyn. May represents the most immediate threat to house prices in terms of silver surfers becoming disenchanted over Brexit and other muddles leading to a lower oldie vote for the Conservatives.
Hasn't the prospect of Brexit been discouraging immigration?
Meanwhile the older percentiles in the UK demographic are living and voting longer. It didn't work out last time for Corbyn. May represents the most immediate threat to house prices in terms of silver surfers becoming disenchanted over Brexit and other muddles leading to a lower oldie vote for the Conservatives.
stongle said:
Shame the market doesn't agree with you and GBP falls. Worst performing major CCY on Thursday, 1% drop off that bat, only those who've been at the bong water thought we were getting 50bps hike. Options are super bearish (meaning no one is pricing in
Furture raises - any of that further raise nonsense Carney was trooping out no one beloeves).
GBP trades largely on sentiment, and noones buying it. Unfortunately the market agrees with my ahole of an opinion.
BREXIT is removing all the tools required to steer international CCY movements AND domestic demand cycle. Savers were never or are gonna see most if any of this raise so the nonsense comments on screw those with mortgages is typical I'll thought out PH tttery.
For property we seem to be driven now by need, supply (demand) and sentiment. National level property data will be all but useless even at regional level. Good street, schools etc, sellers market; anything compromised buyers market. Which is exactly how London seems to operate outside super prime.
All that saying, going long super prime London property may not be a bad trade right now. A potential Brexit outcome and something very absent from the news is what the UK does on services post Brexit. All discussion is on goods currently. If we crashout it's not inconceivable we do an insane deal on corporation tax (like errr Ireland) and certain regs to keep FS in London. London is the league above Paris and Frankfurt, it's competing with NYC and Hong Kong. We're pretty much the global centre of tax avoidance and money laundering anyway; may as well go full tilt on it.
If your open to foreign money and banking, watch the money come rolling in. Difficult policy to sell though, bankers save country from Brexit disaster (and also I hear why France and Germany are actually bricking it on Brexit and want to give us enough of a deal stopping us going full postal on services).
Short answer. Opinion: GBP fell because the Governor of the Bank of England stated that interest rates won't get back to their historical average of 5% for a very long time, and may rise slowly and very gradually. Which means they'll keep lagging the USD and FED policy and keep GBP down. Furture raises - any of that further raise nonsense Carney was trooping out no one beloeves).
GBP trades largely on sentiment, and noones buying it. Unfortunately the market agrees with my a
hole of an opinion.BREXIT is removing all the tools required to steer international CCY movements AND domestic demand cycle. Savers were never or are gonna see most if any of this raise so the nonsense comments on screw those with mortgages is typical I'll thought out PH t
ttery. For property we seem to be driven now by need, supply (demand) and sentiment. National level property data will be all but useless even at regional level. Good street, schools etc, sellers market; anything compromised buyers market. Which is exactly how London seems to operate outside super prime.
All that saying, going long super prime London property may not be a bad trade right now. A potential Brexit outcome and something very absent from the news is what the UK does on services post Brexit. All discussion is on goods currently. If we crashout it's not inconceivable we do an insane deal on corporation tax (like errr Ireland) and certain regs to keep FS in London. London is the league above Paris and Frankfurt, it's competing with NYC and Hong Kong. We're pretty much the global centre of tax avoidance and money laundering anyway; may as well go full tilt on it.
If your open to foreign money and banking, watch the money come rolling in. Difficult policy to sell though, bankers save country from Brexit disaster (and also I hear why France and Germany are actually bricking it on Brexit and want to give us enough of a deal stopping us going full postal on services).
Edited by stongle on Friday 3rd August 07:40
stuckmojo said:
Short answer. Opinion: GBP fell because the Governor of the Bank of England stated that interest rates won't get back to their historical average of 5% for a very long time, and may rise slowly and very gradually. Which means they'll keep lagging the USD and FED policy and keep GBP down.
I didn't fully understand the need for this openness. To me it undermined any call for conservatism in the borrowing stakes for the masses and served to remove any doubt for the rest of the world that UK rates weren't worth investing in for a return. What benefit is there to such openness? Reassurance?
rovermorris999 said:
Thank God for London and the south-east. Without them this country would be totally screwed. Have a look at where tax revenues are raised. If there's a boom there after Brexit then better than no boom. At least there'll be money to spend on the rest of the country. Just don't make me live there again!
I reluctantly agree with this. After spending a week in the south east just the fact that there is building going on EVERYWHERE is an indication of how much economic activity there is. Even up in Cambridge, the road in from the north east seemed to have a mile of brownfield development going on, a lot of it commercial/industrial so not just box houses.Contrast this to where I live where there are some new student halls going up and the neighbours had an extension a few years ago, and that's about it.
But yes, I couldn't live south east of a straight line drawn between Oxford and Peterborough (thus making it the shortest distance).
ScotHill said:
I reluctantly agree with this. After spending a week in the south east just the fact that there is building going on EVERYWHERE is an indication of how much economic activity there is. Even up in Cambridge, the road in from the north east seemed to have a mile of brownfield development going on, a lot of it commercial/industrial so not just box houses.
It's even worse in some parts unfortunately. We've got big problems ahead in my area (Kingston on the Surrey/London border) where literally thousands of new flats have been built with virtually no improvements to supporting infrastructure. It's a bit of a scandal really, but the real problems won't be felt until the developers are long gone and the council that approved it all have changed several times.stuckmojo said:
Short answer. Opinion: GBP fell because the Governor of the Bank of England stated that interest rates won't get back to their historical average of 5% for a very long time, and may rise slowly and very gradually. Which means they'll keep lagging the USD and FED policy and keep GBP down.
Well, rates aren't getting near 5% for the foreseeable future, to think so is optimism beyond my wildest dreams (and I can imagine a sex sandwich with the Minogue sisters). Fed normalisation isn't all roses in the US. At least being long GBP is a better long-term bet than EUR.Anyhoo, historically your view might be correct, but the noise coming out of central bankers for a while (particularly from Jackson Hole), was they might be done and stimulus needs to come from elsewhere. I think a whippy correction on house prices as rates normalize is a massive issue for UK plc, but the real driver isn't rates but other factors.
How far will house prices fall has now become a political factor. Under a future Labour govt as we have in opposition almost certainly. A robust Brexit result, either in or out may actually stabilise them - or at least people's confidence.
What happened to the blog, looks interesting?
On newsnight or similar they mentioned the BoE guidance is 2-3% with 2.75% being the real figure.
Interesting anacdote over at hpc
"We did 3 viewings yesterday, purely anecdotal but I thoroughly enjoyed these comments from the EA's we met
'market is weird at the moment'
'market is slowing down'
'the London money is slowing'
'4 years ago I would of sold this house in an afternoon' (it has been on the market since April 18)
'we are encouraging vendors to list as soon as possible as we are expecting a flood of new listings in the autumn'
'we sent this property to our client list of 400 investors/landlords and not one was interested'
'the seller only wants to see a proceedable offer that can move very quickly'
"
Interesting anacdote over at hpc
"We did 3 viewings yesterday, purely anecdotal but I thoroughly enjoyed these comments from the EA's we met
'market is weird at the moment'
'market is slowing down'
'the London money is slowing'
'4 years ago I would of sold this house in an afternoon' (it has been on the market since April 18)
'we are encouraging vendors to list as soon as possible as we are expecting a flood of new listings in the autumn'
'we sent this property to our client list of 400 investors/landlords and not one was interested'
'the seller only wants to see a proceedable offer that can move very quickly'
"
BlackLabel said:
And ironically London is a Labour stronghold now and is unlikely to return to the Tories again. 49 seats to Corbyn’s Labour vs 21 to the Tories was the London Westminster constituency breakdown last year.
Why is London so left wing?
Why ironically? For many London property is sharing a crappy flat with loads of people and paying a fortune for the privilege, then relying upon public transport to go to a low-paying job. Housing standards are poor and poorly-enforced. Overcrowding is rife. Benefits are critical to keeping a large proportion of people “solvent.” For many, there is no dream of property ownership, self-determination or even much hope.Why is London so left wing?
Meanwhile property is exploited shamelessly by a hefty minority - endless AirBnBs, shabby BTLs, dodgy landlords and dodgier agents renting rooms on “licences” and trying to avoid responsibility, and so on.
Renters now outnumber owners.
People with little to show for their lives and little hope of personal betterment tend not to vote Tory.
skwdenyer said:
BlackLabel said:
And ironically London is a Labour stronghold now and is unlikely to return to the Tories again. 49 seats to Corbyn’s Labour vs 21 to the Tories was the London Westminster constituency breakdown last year.
Why is London so left wing?
Why ironically? For many London property is sharing a crappy flat with loads of people and paying a fortune for the privilege, then relying upon public transport to go to a low-paying job. Housing standards are poor and poorly-enforced. Overcrowding is rife. Benefits are critical to keeping a large proportion of people “solvent.” For many, there is no dream of property ownership, self-determination or even much hope.Why is London so left wing?
Meanwhile property is exploited shamelessly by a hefty minority - endless AirBnBs, shabby BTLs, dodgy landlords and dodgier agents renting rooms on “licences” and trying to avoid responsibility, and so on.
Renters now outnumber owners.
People with little to show for their lives and little hope of personal betterment tend not to vote Tory.
If the next Labour gov't proceeds as per the last two, and it appears to offer worse things (not that we can believe it, but incompetence has a way of coming through) a wrecked economy will stuff everyone except the top 1%.
Disenchanted oldies not voting Conservative can help with that.
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