How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[Mining Subsidence Man]

irc said:

Just another data point. The property dept of a big Edinburgh law firm is currently mega busy. They are making redundancies. Why? Not privy to there forecasting but speculation is that current boom is a combination of Kent up post lockdown demand combined with stamp duty holiday and will be shirt lived as economy gets hit with post furlough redundancies.

My job is dealing with the fallout of disused mines (non coal). What happens is that conveyancing flags a mining search, usually via someone like Searchflow (property search supermarket) and then that gets done and all is either fine, or further work is required, some of it being quite exciting/shocking/expensive.

There are two (ish) main elements to the work.

1. New developers getting things done as a planning requirement, or upfront, because they knew the problems when they bought the site.

2. General housing stock conveyancing stuff.

1 is currently flat out. We are flying with 1, so are all of the other mining firms. The 2 is dragging a bit. I hear of all the estate agents being flat out and having to do night shifts to deal with demand and I'm just not seeing it come out of conveyancing. It is ticking over, but it is not the flat out that it sometimes is. The drillers have 5 rig days next week. 15 is flat out. It's not dead, but it's not flat out.

I know that some staff have come back off furlough and some changes have been made (and surveyors and solicitors) but it's not properly flying.

Everyone I talk to is worried about the end of furlough.

Which is why it won't end.

Watch this space and the 5 months holiday posse get their hols extended.


Edit:- I also gather quite a lot of these bounceback loans are finding their way into BTL. There's a big push on with those at the moment.

[marky911]

Carbon Sasquatch said:

kingston12 said:

Why not just put in an offer at asking price (or whatever you are prepared to pay) anyway?

If there is any truth at all in what the agent is saying, then I’d agree there is no real chance you’d get it, but it’s not much time wasted.

Agree with that - especially if you are in a position to proceed - some of those viewings will be people who haven’t sold theirs yet, are in a chain, need a big mortgage etc.

It’s always worth an offer with an explanation of your position.

Yes gents, I'd usually take that approach, but having shown an interest in 3 or 4 properties over the last couple of weeks, anything interesting has gone within a day or two. The agent selling this one is our local Yopa lass and she's a straight talker, so isn't just bigging it up or anything.
She knows where I am if it didn't sell, but to be honest if 10 people view it and it doesn't go, then I doubt I'd want it either.

Plus as John145 says above, any one taking a romantic view can bid it up to whatever, but the latest thing is valuers not agreeing.

We are in no rush, but if the right place comes up we'll buy. I know I'll find something though and there's an even better chance of that next year, so we'll just keep on watching and waiting, unless a great plot comes up.

[Vanden Saab]

The house two doors down from us went on the market last weekend. It is all but identical in size, position and layout to ours and was on the market for £30,000 more than we paid for ours almost exactly a year ago...it is now sstc. That is an almost 12% increase in a year assuming it went for full asking...

[MX6]

Vanden Saab said:

The house two doors down from us went on the market last weekend. It is all but identical in size, position and layout to ours and was on the market for £30,000 more than we paid for ours almost exactly a year ago...it is now sstc. That is an almost 12% increase in a year assuming it went for full asking...

Interesting, we had a very similar situation. A couple of months ago a house in our cul-de-sac with exact same floor plan plus conservatory came onto the market with an asking price that was £35k up on what we paid about 6 months previously, roughly 12% up. It was probably in better decorative condition than ours in fairness. It sold STC in two days, didn't even make it to the weekend, so I can only assume the accepted offer was asking price or close to.

There's been quite a lot of these anecdotal accounts now, I'm sure we will start to see all this born out in the figures when they start to come through.

[John Locke]

We sold our house in June to a FTB who fortunately is not in a desperate hurry; her mortgage valuation took more than 6 weeks from offer. We found something we wanted to buy from decent realistic sellers who accepted our offer on 27th July, formal mortgage application filed the same day (already approved in principle), and are still waiting for the valuation to be carried out. September 11th is being suggested.
The whole process is pathetic.

ETA: Since our sale, three more houses in our road have been offered and sold STC; one every two years is the norm.

[marky911]

Well the one I mentioned above has sold. Came on Thursday, 10 viewings booked by Friday. Sold yesterday.

There have been dozens like that up here over the last month.

All the warning signs are there not to jump in....
I just can’t stay off Zoopla though. :grin:

[Pit Pony]

p1stonhead said:

Thankyou4calling said:

I own a HOMO In Bedford. Beautiful looking house. 8 bed, shared facilities, goes for £300 ish a room PCM. Paid £325,000 in 2015. Worth no more now.

I think LGBT is the generally accepted term in 2020

HMO

Some assumptions:
Say 80% occupancy, and £600 bills a month, that about £16k profit before finance costs ?
Let's say you have 40% equity, that's £200k to finance at say 3%.
So your 125k investment is making a £10k profit? Not bad.
I've got £42k invested in a nice family 3 bed, and the profit after financing and repairs last year was £6500. I'm not sure the hassle of 8 beds is worth it. Obviously I've made assumptions, so could be wrong.

[Bullet-Proof_Biscuit]

Fairly sombre reading:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-...


London tube capacity is down to 28%! TfL will be after another bailout soon at that rate but will the gov't do it again? Perhaps they will stipulate TfL must reduce services & frequency to get back in the black as part of the loan conditions if they do, same I suppose for commuter trains, all those season ticket holders not renewing will stress the rail networks for sure.

As well as a collapse in value of prime business premises, (London office construction sector doomed), perhaps new builds flats also?

Also cafes and ancillary industries that rely on the commuter volumes, reinforcing the concept of zombie businesses port furlough termination.

'Bosses more likely to hand out P45s when they don't have to face to face the home workers' was particularly savage imho, true mind..

[princeperch]

Slightly off topic: Well good luck getting the vast swathes of civil servants around Whitehall back to the office in any meaningful way.

The government has fked the public sector for a good few years now with crap pay rises so it can hardly be a surprise the Whitehall lot aren't keen on going back to paying hundreds of pounds a month on their travel when they are rewarded each year with a 1pc payrise and maybe a £25 love to shop voucher if you've really put a shift in.

You reap what you sow unfortunately.

[ooid]

Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:

London tube capacity is down to 28%! TfL will be after another bailout soon at that rate but will the gov't do it again? Perhaps they will stipulate TfL must reduce services & frequency to get back in the black as part of the loan conditions if they do, same I suppose for commuter trains, all those season ticket holders not renewing will stress the rail networks for sure.
...

TFL as national embarrassment can totally bust all I care...

Years of crap service, delays, strikes and over-priced tickets?

[gizlaroc]

princeperch said:

Slightly off topic: Well good luck getting the vast swathes of civil servants around Whitehall back to the office in any meaningful way.

The government has fked the public sector for a good few years now with crap pay rises so it can hardly be a surprise the Whitehall lot aren't keen on going back to paying hundreds of pounds a month on their travel when they are rewarded each year with a 1pc payrise and maybe a £25 love to shop voucher if you've really put a shift in.

You reap what you sow unfortunately.

And yet the packages are still looking better than most private sector positions doing the same thing out of London.

[Geoffscars]

In the early 1990s I decided to buy some houses.
I bought about 1 a year for 20 years and ended up with 18 of them
This was instead of a pension. What would have gone in the pension went for deposits.
All houses in South Wales and generally the Cardiff suburbs
I always tried to buy well, anticipate the market etc
The long and the short of it is no one can tell what will happen
Some have doubled in value one or two are worth less than 20 years ago
Some estates became desirable and values go up others went scruffy
Overall I have made money but you just can't beat or second guess the market

[Previous]

gizlaroc said:

And yet the packages are still looking better than most private sector positions doing the same thing out of London.

With great security to boot.

[Sheepshanks]

princeperch said:

Slightly off topic: Well good luck getting the vast swathes of civil servants around Whitehall back to the office in any meaningful way.

The government has fked the public sector for a good few years now with crap pay rises so it can hardly be a surprise the Whitehall lot aren't keen on going back to paying hundreds of pounds a month on their travel when they are rewarded each year with a 1pc payrise and maybe a £25 love to shop voucher if you've really put a shift in.

You reap what you sow unfortunately.

Civil Service is a pretty harsh employer - if managers want people back in they won't give them any choice.

[rustyuk]

Our neighbour has just sold. They had quite a bit of interest from people in London escaping as they no longer needed to be in the office everyday.

[kingston12]

rustyuk said:

Our neighbour has just sold. They had quite a bit of interest from people in London escaping as they no longer needed to be in the office everyday.

What area is that? It’s interesting to know how far the exodus is spreading.

[John Locke]

Sheepshanks said:

Civil Service is a pretty harsh employer - if managers want people back in they won't give them any choice.

My goodness, that’s really harsh; expecting employees to actually turn up for work.

[cml24]

kingston12 said:

rustyuk said:

Our neighbour has just sold. They had quite a bit of interest from people in London escaping as they no longer needed to be in the office everyday.

What area is that? It’s interesting to know how far the exodus is spreading.

Yes this information would be interesting to know. Speaking with colleagues, it seems to be a matter of perspective. One in Teddington believes everyone will be buying houses near him to escape London. In my mind Teddington is full of high rise buildings and as central as it gets and people will be selling up to by big houses just inside/outside the m25. Ask other people though and they think those living an hour from central London will now be selling up to move two hours away to be by the coast or double their house size!

Maybe everyone is correct (apart from the skyscrapers in Teddington perhaps) and there are waves of people so its really only central London that will suffer greatly...

[Bullet-Proof_Biscuit]

ooid said:

Bullet-Proof_Biscuit said:

London tube capacity is down to 28%! TfL will be after another bailout soon at that rate but will the gov't do it again? Perhaps they will stipulate TfL must reduce services & frequency to get back in the black as part of the loan conditions if they do, same I suppose for commuter trains, all those season ticket holders not renewing will stress the rail networks for sure.
...

TFL as national embarrassment can totally bust all I care...

Years of crap service, delays, strikes and over-priced tickets?

Tbh I think my point was imagine if the gov't cannot afford to bail out TfL! Imagine the national embarrassment and the downgrading of UK rating from lack of confidence etc, bit of a tangential point but potentially possible, gov't didn't want to do it at all last time, and if my scenario were to play out just think what the world will think of us - albeit not very good atm anyway *brexit*

[Thankyou4calling]

cml24 said:

Yes this information would be interesting to know. Speaking with colleagues, it seems to be a matter of perspective. One in Teddington believes everyone will be buying houses near him to escape London. In my mind Teddington is full of high rise buildings and as central as it gets and people will be selling up to by big houses just inside/outside the m25. Ask other people though and they think those living an hour from central London will now be selling up to move two hours away to be by the coast or double their house size!

Maybe everyone is correct (apart from the skyscrapers in Teddington perhaps) and there are waves of people so its really only central London that will suffer greatly...

I live in Teddington and I can assure you there are no high rises.