How far will house prices fall [volume 5]

[hyphen]

stuckmojo said:

V6Alfisti said:

Certainly much of the fat is coming out of some ridiculous new build pricing in some areas.. How they ever thought they would get £800k for 522sqft in N4

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/46845094

28th Jun 2018 £447,500 Price reduced by £262,500
14th Jun 2018 £710,000 Price increased by £15,000
30th May 2018 £695,000 Price increased by £65,000
3rd May 2018 £630,000 Price reduced by £120,000
17th Apr 2018 £750,000 Price reduced by £25,000
21st Mar 2018 £775,000 Price reduced by £24,995
13th Mar 2018 £799,995 Price increased by £45
7th Mar 2018 £799,950

Still a chunk of money for a young professional Chinese investor

Foreign investors tend to look at the map. Hence why places like elephant and castle attract sales, as the builders can do property fairs in Asia and point out how close it is to everything.

[loafer123]

V6Alfisti said:

Certainly much of the fat is coming out of some ridiculous new build pricing in some areas.. How they ever thought they would get £800k for 522sqft in N4

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/46845094

28th Jun 2018 £447,500 Price reduced by £262,500
14th Jun 2018 £710,000 Price increased by £15,000
30th May 2018 £695,000 Price increased by £65,000
3rd May 2018 £630,000 Price reduced by £120,000
17th Apr 2018 £750,000 Price reduced by £25,000
21st Mar 2018 £775,000 Price reduced by £24,995
13th Mar 2018 £799,995 Price increased by £45
7th Mar 2018 £799,950

The quoting price is £857 psf NOW.

The original was more like £1,500 psf.

It's probably *worth* £500 psf.

[V6Alfisti]

loafer123 said:

The quoting price is £857 psf NOW.

The original was more like £1,500 psf.

It's probably *worth* £500 psf.

Agreed it's still too much, suspect the developer slightly over specced with the pool e.t.c but that's quite a hair cut from the developers expectation

[alfaman]

hyphen said:

Foreign investors tend to look at the map. Hence why places like elephant and castle attract sales, as the builders can do property fairs in Asia and point out how close it is to everything.

Get them in Singapore - locals here have no idea that the immediate surrounding area may be a complete crime ridden sthole ... thinking all central London is prime

[mike74]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Damp is the only issue I can think of, but when you look at the pics the worst examples of damp are actually the annex.

But even if the main house is suffering with damp surely that doesn't account for £150k loss of value?
And surely the current owners didn't spend £400k on it without having a survey which would have highlighted the damp?

[Matt p]

V6Alfisti said:

loafer123 said:

The quoting price is £857 psf NOW.

The original was more like £1,500 psf.

It's probably *worth* £500 psf.

Agreed it's still too much, suspect the developer slightly over specced with the pool e.t.c but that's quite a hair cut from the developers expectation

That’s without ground rent and service charges which no doubt will be eye watering.

[stuckmojo]

alfaman said:

Get them in Singapore - locals here have no idea that the immediate surrounding area may be a complete crime ridden sthole ... thinking all central London is prime

This is true. When I lived there I remember many investment houses shop fronts with models of London apartment blocks. Locations were awful, but the SG investor would never know.

[GreatGranny]

mike74 said:

Damp is the only issue I can think of, but when you look at the pics the worst examples of damp are actually the annex.

But even if the main house is suffering with damp surely that doesn't account for £150k loss of value?
And surely the current owners didn't spend £400k on it without having a survey which would have highlighted the damp?

It was also listed in 2015 and it looked in quite good condition then



Looks like photos in latest advert were the ones taken 8 months ago when you would have had new ones done especially in this weather.

Bankruptcy?
Marriage split?
Business failure?

Edited by GreatGranny on Tuesday 7th August 08:11

[loafer123]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

At £500 psf it would be just over £250k, so 4x£50k income plus £50k savings or bank of Mum and Dad.

That’s probably about right for the income of a buyer of a flat like that.

[alfaman]

stuckmojo said:

alfaman said:

Get them in Singapore - locals here have no idea that the immediate surrounding area may be a complete crime ridden sthole ... thinking all central London is prime

This is true. When I lived there I remember many investment houses shop fronts with models of London apartment blocks. Locations were awful, but the SG investor would never know.

I always tell my local friends ‘talk to me or another Brit BEFORE you buy in London ....

other thing is ... Singaporeans think it’s entirely appropriate that they can buy property in London as non- residents for only 3% extra ... so skew the market in London

As a RESIDENT in Singapore (but not PR) - my stamp duty would be nearly 20% (15% penalty ) .... locals here don’t want ‘foreigners’ buying ... even if they live AND work in Singapore ... comes across as rather unfair / hypocritical. So I have to rent (stamp duty alone would be 8-10 years rent ... for nothing )

[Jobbo]

GreatGranny said:

mike74 said:

Damp is the only issue I can think of, but when you look at the pics the worst examples of damp are actually the annex.

But even if the main house is suffering with damp surely that doesn't account for £150k loss of value?
And surely the current owners didn't spend £400k on it without having a survey which would have highlighted the damp?

It was also listed in 2015 and it looked in quite good condition then



Looks like photos in latest advert were the ones taken 8 months ago when you would have had new ones done especially in this weather.

Bankruptcy?
Marriage split?
Business failure?

Looks like another house was built in its curtilage and sold in 2017: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/32a-maes-llydan/...

[anarki]

I realize this is a difficult question to answer but are prices likely to stay stagnant/ease off over the next year(s) in Bristol?

I have a steady job and earn just above the UK average - £32k ish a year, have very little debt - £2k total of which I can clear easily and quickly, and I have a small deposit currently - £11k

I am not a first time buyer, my old property was sold 2 years ago after a separation.

Going through some mortgage calculators it seems the max I'm able to borrow is around £130-140k. As I have a son I require a 2 bedroom property.

This leaves a very small pocket of properties available. If I theoretically add another £10k to my deposit it still doesn't get me any further. Mainly 2 bed flats around the £150-£160k

Very undesirable areas such as Hartcliffe currently have 3 bed, ex council, terrace houses up for £170k+ that need work doing to them. Now don't get me wrong I'm not a snob and am more than happy to put some very hard graft in fixing up a place, but £170k on a rundown 3 bed terrace in an impoverished area is surely having a laugh.

Do I hold out and continue to save, add to my deposit and hope prices fall or will they keep climbing higher, ever out of reach? My thought process over the past few months was to wait and see what Brexit does to prices but I'm not sure whether I should just get on the ladder now.

Thanks for reading.

[mike74]

Jobbo said:

ooks like another house was built in its curtilage and sold in 2017: https://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/32a-maes-llydan/...

But still, that was before the current owners paid £400k for it, so still doesn't explain the drop in value.

[Helicopter123]

Halifax index out today showing an upturn.

One survey but very upbeat.

[HardtopManual]

Unfortunately, the Halifax index does not contain a regional breakdown, which in a country like ours, makes it all but useless.

[joyless lobotomised parrot]

Regional doesn't really do it either. The micro-market nature of the property sector breaks down far further than merely into regions.

[p1stonhead]

On the purely anecdotal side of things, I’m remortgaging and Nationwide just valued my place (Surrey) at £150k more than I bought it for in 2014 - a 33% increase.

Probably about right for the area considering now other sales.

However, they appear to purely base it off the below calculator though then send a surveyor round to confirm.....

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-ind...

Edited by p1stonhead on Wednesday 8th August 06:37

[hyphen]

anarki said:

I realize this is a difficult question to answer but are prices likely to stay stagnant/ease off over the next year(s) in Bristol?

I have a steady job and earn just above the UK average - £32k ish a year, have very little debt - £2k total of which I can clear easily and quickly, and I have a small deposit currently - £11k

I am not a first time buyer, my old property was sold 2 years ago after a separation.

Going through some mortgage calculators it seems the max I'm able to borrow is around £130-140k. As I have a son I require a 2 bedroom property.

This leaves a very small pocket of properties available. If I theoretically add another £10k to my deposit it still doesn't get me any further. Mainly 2 bed flats around the £150-£160k

Very undesirable areas such as Hartcliffe currently have 3 bed, ex council, terrace houses up for £170k+ that need work doing to them. Now don't get me wrong I'm not a snob and am more than happy to put some very hard graft in fixing up a place, but £170k on a rundown 3 bed terrace in an impoverished area is surely having a laugh.

Do I hold out and continue to save, add to my deposit and hope prices fall or will they keep climbing higher, ever out of reach? My thought process over the past few months was to wait and see what Brexit does to prices but I'm not sure whether I should just get on the ladder now.

Thanks for reading.

Have you looked through the sales and stc's? If the Hartcliffe ones are selling, then that may be the market price. If you can do it up by yourself and sell in for a profit then perhaps go for it.

I would actively keep viewing properties, and yes, if Brexit goes well then consider buying incase of a confidence uplift.

And speak to the mortgage peoole and get an actual amount they would lend, along with an AIP rather than relying on mortgage calculators so you are ready to pounce (or as pH like to say, 'pull the trigger' ) and also seen as a serious buyer.

[hyphen]

p1stonhead said:

On the purely anecdotal side of things, I’m remortgaging and Nationwide just valued my place (Surrey) at £150k more than I bought it for in 2014 - a 33% increase.

Probably about right for the area considering now other sales.

However, they appear to purely base it off the below calculator though then send a surveyor round to confirm.....

https://www.nationwide.co.uk/about/house-price-ind...

Edited by p1stonhead on Wednesday 8th August 06:37

Don't worry about it, they take your mortgage and then put it together with some other mortgages and sell it to someone else. Some rating agency will have given that online calculator methodology a pre-approval of A++

[stuckmojo]

hyphen said:

Don't worry about it, they take your mortgage and then put it together with some other mortgages and sell it to someone else. Some rating agency will have given that online calculator methodology a pre-approval of A++

This, a million times. Mark to fantasy stuff (doesn't mean the specific house wouldn't sell for that, mind)