How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)

[don'tbesilly]

Ghibli said:

don'tbesilly said:

Leadsom doesn't support May's version of Brexit because it's not Brexit, but anyone who pays the slightest bit of attention to the negotiations knows that.

I'd align her more with the original Davis plan which prior to Chequers was recognised as a viable plan, however it became clear after Chequers, May had been working against such a plan, and no-one apart from May and a selected cabal knew that.

What followed was a resignation by Davis and Johnson, Leadsom gave May some rope to see if she would change her plan and not concede further, which May is now doing, hence Leadsoms alleged threats to quit IMO.

So what we are seeing is Tory MP's standing by what was promised as a result of the referendum, and what was promised by May in her Lancaster House speech and in her own manifesto.

It's not difficult to work out.

What we are seeing is people's visions of Brexit failing and MP's resigning.

It's not difficult to work out. It's just a case of people realising that they didn't know what Brexit will actually be.

That's of course you're opinion which you're entitled to.

What we're seeing is a PM that stated a vision for Brexit as defined in her Lancaster House speech and her own manifesto that she has now lost the will to carry through on.

As a result some MP's with conviction, who can't back the current plan proposed by May which contradicts her previous stance and conviction, are, and as a matter of principle resigning/might resign as a result of a lack of confidence and more importantly, of trust.

May will undoubtedly find the same when and if she leads the Tories at any forthcoming General Election, a GE the Tories will inevitably lose.

[anonymous-user]

don'tbesilly said:

That's of course you're opinion which you're entitled to.

What we're seeing is a PM that stated a vision for Brexit as defined in her Lancaster House speech and her own manifesto that she has now lost the will to carry through on.

As a result some MP's with conviction, who can't back the current plan proposed by May which contradicts her previous stance and conviction, are, and as a matter of principle resigning/might resign as a result of a lack of confidence and more importantly, of trust.

May will undoubtedly find the same when and if she leads the Tories at any forthcoming General Election, a GE the Tories will inevitably lose.

What we are seeing is lots of MPs saying lots of different things. Some of the public believe that the MPs can deliver what they say.

The reality is that they are in negotiations with the EU are they have no control over the EU. If they don't get what they said they can offer they will blame whoever they can for not getting it.

If we end up with any deal it will need to be agreeable with the UK and the EU. Not a bunch of MPs promising things that they can't deliver.

[crankedup]

Ghibli said:

don'tbesilly said:

That's of course you're opinion which you're entitled to.

What we're seeing is a PM that stated a vision for Brexit as defined in her Lancaster House speech and her own manifesto that she has now lost the will to carry through on.

As a result some MP's with conviction, who can't back the current plan proposed by May which contradicts her previous stance and conviction, are, and as a matter of principle resigning/might resign as a result of a lack of confidence and more importantly, of trust.

May will undoubtedly find the same when and if she leads the Tories at any forthcoming General Election, a GE the Tories will inevitably lose.

What we are seeing is lots of MPs saying lots of different things. Some of the public believe that the MPs can deliver what they say.

The reality is that they are in negotiations with the EU are they have no control over the EU. If they don't get what they said they can offer they will blame whoever they can for not getting it.

If we end up with any deal it will need to be agreeable with the UK and the EU. Not a bunch of MPs promising things that they can't deliver.

As I mentioned a few hours ago, the businesses in Germany are getting nervous and have ‘advised’ the EU negotiations team to stop posturing and antagonising. They are now putting pressure on as they recognise the importance of a good deal with the U.K., and U.K. with the EU.

[anonymous-user]

crankedup said:

As I mentioned a few hours ago, the businesses in Germany are getting nervous and have ‘advised’ the EU negotiations team to stop posturing and antagonising. They are now putting pressure on as they recognise the importance of a good deal with the U.K., and U.K. with the EU.

At the same time the UK car industry is saying it's a bad idea to leave.

Wherever we end up it won't be the Brexit dream for all who voted for or the people that didn't vote for it.

[Tuna]

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

So you think that she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with and (in her current position) cannot influence? Why is that?

Edited by Tuna on Saturday 13th October 15:19

Which version of Brexit does she support.

Obviously not the May or Mogg Minford versions.

Does it matter? If she resigns it's because she's against Chequers. How many Remainers have not resigned?

You avoided the question though - do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

[PurpleMoonlight]

Ghibli said:

What we are seeing is lots of MPs saying lots of different things. Some of the public believe that the MPs can deliver what they say.

The reality is that they are in negotiations with the EU are they have no control over the EU. If they don't get what they said they can offer they will blame whoever they can for not getting it.

If we end up with any deal it will need to be agreeable with the UK and the EU. Not a bunch of MPs promising things that they can't deliver.

But May promised.

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

Does it matter? If she resigns it's because she's against Chequers. How many Remainers have not resigned?

You avoided the question though - do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

I don't know what plan she was supporting. It would need to be something agreeable with the EU. She appears to be abandoning the Brexit dream which can't be delivered.

People are starting to see that Brexit isn't what they thought it would be. Blaming other people seems be the goal in the scramble for the exit.

[don'tbesilly]

Ghibli said:

don'tbesilly said:

That's of course you're opinion which you're entitled to.

What we're seeing is a PM that stated a vision for Brexit as defined in her Lancaster House speech and her own manifesto that she has now lost the will to carry through on.

As a result some MP's with conviction, who can't back the current plan proposed by May which contradicts her previous stance and conviction, are, and as a matter of principle resigning/might resign as a result of a lack of confidence and more importantly, of trust.

May will undoubtedly find the same when and if she leads the Tories at any forthcoming General Election, a GE the Tories will inevitably lose.

What we are seeing is lots of MPs saying lots of different things. Some of the public believe that the MPs can deliver what they say.

The reality is that they are in negotiations with the EU are they have no control over the EU. If they don't get what they said they can offer they will blame whoever they can for not getting it.

If we end up with any deal it will need to be agreeable with the UK and the EU. Not a bunch of MPs promising things that they can't deliver.

I think you'll find any bunch of MP's have more collective power than you give them credit for.

The same bunch of MP's as a collective within Labour have already stated they'll vote down any deal May gets from Brussels.
A similar bunch of MP's as a collective within the Conservative party have stated the same.

Any deal the UK agrees with the EU needs to be voted on in the House of Commons, which strangely is occupied by the same MP's already referred to, along with others from other parties.

If May continues on the path she's following a bunch of MP's can call for a vote of no confidence in her,the same bunch coupled with another bunch can oust her.

If the collective bunches can't agree on anything, the collective bunch as a whole will be responsible for the inevitable path of leading the UK out of the EU on the 29th March 2019 without a deal.

[anonymous-user]

PurpleMoonlight said:

But May promised.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CPMpeNDIGdk

[Tuna]

Ghibli said:

At the same time the UK car industry is saying it's a bad idea to leave without an agreement.

Wherever we end up it won't be the Brexit dream for all who voted for or the people that didn't vote for it.

You missed an important part there.

You're also missing the point that some people who voted Brexit will be more than happy to just leave, and are quite ready to accept some short term hassle to achieve that.

The 'Brexit dream' for most is ending membership of the EU and gaining control over tariffs, trade and immigration - not your magic interpretation, which no doubt involves cake and other nonsense.

Against those tests, Chequers will indeed disappoint many (and hurt a lot of Remainers when they finally realise what their preferred compromise actually involves).

[Tuna]

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Does it matter? If she resigns it's because she's against Chequers. How many Remainers have not resigned?

You avoided the question though - do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

I don't know what plan she was supporting. It would need to be something agreeable with the EU. She appears to be abandoning the Brexit dream which can't be delivered.

Still avoiding the question. Is it too difficult? Do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

That doesn't require that she negotiates her own deal with the EU, just that she feels the current one is not workable and she cannot influence it in a constructive manner.

Ghibli said:

People are starting to see that Brexit isn't what they thought it would be. Blaming other people seems be the goal in the scramble for the exit.

Your interpretation, and I'm wondering where you see blame? To give you a hint, resigning is not the same as blaming.

[PurpleMoonlight]

don'tbesilly said:

I think you'll find any bunch of MP's have more collective power than you give them credit for.

The same bunch of MP's as a collective within Labour have already stated they'll vote down any deal May gets from Brussels.

No they haven't.

They have said that they will support a deal that complies with their six requirements.

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Does it matter? If she resigns it's because she's against Chequers. How many Remainers have not resigned?

You avoided the question though - do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

I don't know what plan she was supporting. It would need to be something agreeable with the EU. She appears to be abandoning the Brexit dream which can't be delivered.

Still avoiding the question. Is it too difficult? Do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

That doesn't require that she negotiates her own deal with the EU, just that she feels the current one is not workable and she cannot influence it in a constructive manner.

Ghibli said:

People are starting to see that Brexit isn't what they thought it would be. Blaming other people seems be the goal in the scramble for the exit.

Your interpretation, and I'm wondering where you see blame? To give you a hint, resigning is not the same as blaming.

I'm not avoiding the question. If her dream of Brexit doesn't exist how can she support it.

[don'tbesilly]

PurpleMoonlight said:

don'tbesilly said:

I think you'll find any bunch of MP's have more collective power than you give them credit for.

The same bunch of MP's as a collective within Labour have already stated they'll vote down any deal May gets from Brussels.

No they haven't.

They have said that they will support a deal that complies with their six requirements.

Thanks, you've just confirmed what I had previously written.

Most Labour MP's don't know what the six requirements are/were, Corbyn certainly doesn't, and some Labour MP's don't even believe in the six requirements as being viable/realistic and are based on very early statements made by Tory MP's.

So I stand by what I've written.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Tuna said:

Still avoiding the question. Is it too difficult? Do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

But she was supporting it a few days ago, so what's changed for her?

[PurpleMoonlight]

don'tbesilly said:

Thanks, you've just confirmed what I had previously written.

Most Labour MP's don't know what the six requirements are/were, Corbyn certainly doesn't, and some Labour MP's don't even believe in the six requirements as being viable/realistic and are based on very early statements made by Tory MP's.

So I stand by what I've written.

Sorry I haven't confirmed anything for you.

You claimed Labour will refuse any deal, they clearly won't. The fact the deal they will support is unlikely is irrelevant to your claim.

[don'tbesilly]

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Does it matter? If she resigns it's because she's against Chequers. How many Remainers have not resigned?

You avoided the question though - do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

I don't know what plan she was supporting. It would need to be something agreeable with the EU. She appears to be abandoning the Brexit dream which can't be delivered.

Still avoiding the question. Is it too difficult? Do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

That doesn't require that she negotiates her own deal with the EU, just that she feels the current one is not workable and she cannot influence it in a constructive manner.

Ghibli said:

People are starting to see that Brexit isn't what they thought it would be. Blaming other people seems be the goal in the scramble for the exit.

Your interpretation, and I'm wondering where you see blame? To give you a hint, resigning is not the same as blaming.

I'm not avoiding the question. If her dream of Brexit doesn't exist how can she support it.

Her plan/vision as sold by May did exist up to Chequers, after Chequers it's been dissipating every time May opens her mouth.

So are you now going to answer the question - should Leadsom support a plan she clearly doesn't support?

[KrissKross]

dazwalsh said:

crankedup said:

According to articles in the Daily Mail today at last the German car manufacturing bosses are ‘advising’ the EU negotiating members to stop the posturing and antagonising PM May and get a decent deal agreed. Sounds very much like the Germans are getting nervous as much as U.K. bosses, which was always going to be the way.

Business will start to have their say now and the politicians will fall into line on the back of that. Think they have had enough of the nonsense.

The politicians on both sides are clueless, they have no concept of what negotiating really is.

Let the businesses do business, simple.

[don'tbesilly]

PurpleMoonlight said:

don'tbesilly said:

Thanks, you've just confirmed what I had previously written.

Most Labour MP's don't know what the six requirements are/were, Corbyn certainly doesn't, and some Labour MP's don't even believe in the six requirements as being viable/realistic and are based on very early statements made by Tory MP's.

So I stand by what I've written.

Sorry I haven't confirmed anything for you.

You claimed Labour will refuse any deal, they clearly won't. The fact the deal they will support is unlikely is irrelevant to your claim.

No, you did confirm it.

Your argument is irrelevant.

[Tuna]

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Ghibli said:

Tuna said:

Does it matter? If she resigns it's because she's against Chequers. How many Remainers have not resigned?

You avoided the question though - do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

I don't know what plan she was supporting. It would need to be something agreeable with the EU. She appears to be abandoning the Brexit dream which can't be delivered.

Still avoiding the question. Is it too difficult? Do you think she should continue to support a plan that she disagrees with?

That doesn't require that she negotiates her own deal with the EU, just that she feels the current one is not workable and she cannot influence it in a constructive manner.

Ghibli said:

People are starting to see that Brexit isn't what they thought it would be. Blaming other people seems be the goal in the scramble for the exit.

Your interpretation, and I'm wondering where you see blame? To give you a hint, resigning is not the same as blaming.

I'm not avoiding the question. If her dream of Brexit doesn't exist how can she support it.

How do you think what you typed makes any sense? If May refuses to move from Chequers, despite serious criticism from Remainers, Leavers and the EU, how do we know if Leadsom's "dream of Brexit" exists or not?

You know you're being completely hypocritical over this, trying to make a political point from someone actually sticking to their principles.

Just to spell it out for you: Resigning is saying she believes that May's approach is going to be bad for the country. "Anything but this" is a valid option, and doesn't require you to have a "dream", just some principles.

We're actually moving to a position where May (a Remainer) has managed to force out all of the Leave members who oppose her approach to Brexit. You should be celebrating that Remain has won the day. If May survives, whatever happens next is your dream, not theirs.