Theresa May (Vol.2)
Discussion
Bill said:
motco said:
'No deal' looks as if it is the only possible outcome. Anything more favourable to UK than the May proposal would be rejected by EU, and anything harder for UK would clearly not pass the House. No deal is automatic if nothing else is agreed and nothing else can be agreed obviously. Delaying A50 only prolongs the agony, and reversal of A50 would start a riot or two.
There's plenty of scope for a softening of May's red lines. Extend A50 and form a customs union with FoM gets rid of the NI border issue and gives parliament what they want and won't be resisted by the EU.mattmurdock said:
The rest of the Withdrawal Agreement is good, it is just the backstop that is stopping it being agreed. The issue is the backstop is an extremely complex issue for both sides.
Only because the EU made it so. The obvious solution is to allow the WTO to judge if our solution is good enough. Take the decision away from the EU.(or UK)Bill said:
Why wouldn't the HoC pass it?? They mostly want to remain and BRINO allows them to "respect the wishes of the people" while not buggering the country* up.
Brexit was always going to be a compromise.
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The problem is that the only country that has the sort of half in/half out relationship with the EU that would be acceptable to most economically and politically is Switzerland and the EU is trying to coerce them into changing the terms of their various agreements.Brexit was always going to be a compromise.
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People can talk about "soft" and "hard" Brexits all they like and "compromise", but most proposed "solutions" continue things much as they are (but perhaps with worse terms for services exports to the EU) and remove our say in those laws and regulations to which we will remain subject. They aren't as awful as May's deal (due to the irrevocable nature of that backstop), but they don't really solve anything on a long term basis as the same tensions will remain.
mattmurdock said:
The rest of the Withdrawal Agreement is good, it is just the backstop that is stopping it being agreed. The issue is the backstop is an extremely complex issue for both sides.
There are numerous articles pointing out the fact that the backstop is distinctly NOT the only thing stopping the WA being agreed. It ties us in far too closely to the EU on several fronts, to the point where we might as well stay in.Even the DUP have said as much.
JagLover said:
People can talk about "soft" and "hard" Brexits all they like and "compromise", but most proposed "solutions" continue things much as they are (but perhaps with worse terms for services exports to the EU) and remove our say in those laws and regulations to which we will remain subject. They aren't as awful as May's deal (due to the irrevocable nature of that backstop), but they don't really solve anything on a long term basis as the same tensions will remain.
I agree, and it was always likely to be so. The winning margin in the referendum wasn't enormous, and then May threw away a working majority and had to get into bed with the DUP. So it became inevitable.
JagLover said:
Elysium said:
I am beginning to think that 'no deal' will only be possible if it is the outcome of a second referendum.
Any deal that might command a parliamentary majority will look 'soft' to the Brexiteer MP's. May's problem is that she tried to come up with something that appealed to everyone, but in reality neither side liked it. She is still talking about middle ground, but in reality I am not sure we have any.
There is some irony here, but I think we will start to see Brexiteers supporting and planning for an a50 extension and second referendum. It is the only way of deciding between the three factions:
Just get out / no-deal
Brexit in name only / customs union and 4 freedoms
Remain
Without a referendum, we will just keep banging away until we find a soft Brexit that all parties can agree.
Farage is already there:
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/nigel-farage-brexi...
You are assuming that the "people's vote" campaigners are planning to allow "no deal" to be an option on the ballot paper, as many are not. Any deal that might command a parliamentary majority will look 'soft' to the Brexiteer MP's. May's problem is that she tried to come up with something that appealed to everyone, but in reality neither side liked it. She is still talking about middle ground, but in reality I am not sure we have any.
There is some irony here, but I think we will start to see Brexiteers supporting and planning for an a50 extension and second referendum. It is the only way of deciding between the three factions:
Just get out / no-deal
Brexit in name only / customs union and 4 freedoms
Remain
Without a referendum, we will just keep banging away until we find a soft Brexit that all parties can agree.
Farage is already there:
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/nigel-farage-brexi...
motco said:
'No deal' looks as if it is the only possible outcome. Anything more favourable to UK than the May proposal would be rejected by EU, and anything harder for UK would clearly not pass the House. No deal is automatic if nothing else is agreed and nothing else can be agreed obviously. Delaying A50 only prolongs the agony, and reversal of A50 would start a riot or two.
I think you are right that there are three options: 1. No Deal
2. Mays Deal - which will not be allowed to change to any significant degree
3. Remain
Parliament is against no-deal and the EU can stop it. On that basis it is never going to happen automatically. If we keep delaying then it will be between Mays deal (which Brexiteers will see as BRINO) and remain.
The only way to break the deadlock, whilst having a leave option that satisfies the Brexiteers is to put all three to a referendum and act immediately on the result. The leavers stand to gain the most from it.
Re: the border issues, I'll try and be brief.
DUP want NI to be as different as possible from Ireland - both being in the EU doesn't sit well with the DUP.
Brexit was an opportunity to relinquish the every intertwining relationship between NI and Ireland.
DUP were 'gifted' half a million £'s to campaign for Brexit. Nobody to this day, knows the source of this income (DUP Dark Money) Some say it was the Russians wanting to see the split in the UK EU partnership. I think that's a load of old balls personally but what we do know, is that we've no idea where the primary donation came from.
DUP don't seem too concerned of where it came from, but that half million still served a purpose in terms of funding the Brexit campaign. They still lost, NI, unsurprisingly, voted remain, despite DUP best efforts. There was also more to read into the vote than just stay/remain - DUP will feel a weakened unionist hand that so many in NI chose to stay, despite their efforts to the contrary.
Good Friday agreement gives NI citizens the right to unite with Ireland with a majority vote. The DUP absolutely do not like the good friday agreement.
A hard Brexit is akin to tearing up the good Friday agreement. Hence the backstop. DUP have stated in recent days that they have no issues with a hard brexit 'no deal' scenario - as that's their preferred outcome. Tearing up the GFA.
Tony Blair called this out even before the 2016 referendum, that the Brexit vote was a paradox to the GFA - how can you let the public vote on something when a leave vote is in direct conflict to an international treaty we've previously signed up to? The leave vote should only have been allowed to take place once that paradox had been removed. But Cameron didn't think that paradox would ever rear its head, so it was dismissed, and now, the whole of Brexit has become that very same paradox. The backstop IS the Good Friday agreement.
To make matters worse, the fact that the DUP are required for the government to keep their majority, its now become a Paradox squared, or a double paradox if you like.
The very blunt reality is, that the only way to deliver a Brexit with the UK outside of the CU/SM is to tear up the Good Friday agreement. The only way to keep the Good Friday agreement is to keep the UK within the CU/SM. T May came up with a negotiation, a very good negotiation with the EU, that gave NI special status, which meant that the UK could leave and the GFA was kept intact - but the stumbling block was that she needed the DUP support. And as mentioned above, we know the DUP stance on special status for NI.
And thats all despite NI broadly welcoming the WA. It did mean that NI would have to diverge from rest of GB in terms of food standards etc, a clear red line for the DUP. Not an NI red line, a DUP red line. Business in NI welcomed the deal, and so do the majority of its people. It delivers compromise and certainty.
The DUP keep talking about being trapped in the backstop by the EU but the clear reality, is that it’s the DUP that have trapped the government. They have trapped T May from making the deal that delivers Brexit and a majority in parliament, all because of those 10 crucial seats.
There is a lot of support for the DUP in areas of England, that they are protecting the union and fighting for sovereignty, standing up for the United Kingdom, but it’s just a political mask to conceal their true goal, which is to diverge NI as much as possible from Ireland. And they are holding the rest of the UK to ransom as a result. Is that unionism? They are the ones who have destroyed Brexit. The conservatives can’t call it out, due to the confidence and supply agreement – labour won’t call it out – why would they – it’s a wrecking ball that sits within the party so they are quite happy to sit and watch the destruction.
DUP want NI to be as different as possible from Ireland - both being in the EU doesn't sit well with the DUP.
Brexit was an opportunity to relinquish the every intertwining relationship between NI and Ireland.
DUP were 'gifted' half a million £'s to campaign for Brexit. Nobody to this day, knows the source of this income (DUP Dark Money) Some say it was the Russians wanting to see the split in the UK EU partnership. I think that's a load of old balls personally but what we do know, is that we've no idea where the primary donation came from.
DUP don't seem too concerned of where it came from, but that half million still served a purpose in terms of funding the Brexit campaign. They still lost, NI, unsurprisingly, voted remain, despite DUP best efforts. There was also more to read into the vote than just stay/remain - DUP will feel a weakened unionist hand that so many in NI chose to stay, despite their efforts to the contrary.
Good Friday agreement gives NI citizens the right to unite with Ireland with a majority vote. The DUP absolutely do not like the good friday agreement.
A hard Brexit is akin to tearing up the good Friday agreement. Hence the backstop. DUP have stated in recent days that they have no issues with a hard brexit 'no deal' scenario - as that's their preferred outcome. Tearing up the GFA.
Tony Blair called this out even before the 2016 referendum, that the Brexit vote was a paradox to the GFA - how can you let the public vote on something when a leave vote is in direct conflict to an international treaty we've previously signed up to? The leave vote should only have been allowed to take place once that paradox had been removed. But Cameron didn't think that paradox would ever rear its head, so it was dismissed, and now, the whole of Brexit has become that very same paradox. The backstop IS the Good Friday agreement.
To make matters worse, the fact that the DUP are required for the government to keep their majority, its now become a Paradox squared, or a double paradox if you like.
The very blunt reality is, that the only way to deliver a Brexit with the UK outside of the CU/SM is to tear up the Good Friday agreement. The only way to keep the Good Friday agreement is to keep the UK within the CU/SM. T May came up with a negotiation, a very good negotiation with the EU, that gave NI special status, which meant that the UK could leave and the GFA was kept intact - but the stumbling block was that she needed the DUP support. And as mentioned above, we know the DUP stance on special status for NI.
And thats all despite NI broadly welcoming the WA. It did mean that NI would have to diverge from rest of GB in terms of food standards etc, a clear red line for the DUP. Not an NI red line, a DUP red line. Business in NI welcomed the deal, and so do the majority of its people. It delivers compromise and certainty.
The DUP keep talking about being trapped in the backstop by the EU but the clear reality, is that it’s the DUP that have trapped the government. They have trapped T May from making the deal that delivers Brexit and a majority in parliament, all because of those 10 crucial seats.
There is a lot of support for the DUP in areas of England, that they are protecting the union and fighting for sovereignty, standing up for the United Kingdom, but it’s just a political mask to conceal their true goal, which is to diverge NI as much as possible from Ireland. And they are holding the rest of the UK to ransom as a result. Is that unionism? They are the ones who have destroyed Brexit. The conservatives can’t call it out, due to the confidence and supply agreement – labour won’t call it out – why would they – it’s a wrecking ball that sits within the party so they are quite happy to sit and watch the destruction.
Elysium said:
Parliament is against no-deal and the EU can stop it. On that basis it is never going to happen automatically. .
Probably, but not certainly. I can see the possibility that , given it needs changes in primary legislation, a blizzard of amendments (ably assisted by the speaker) would either get voted down or not make it time for March 29.[quote=soupdragon1
Good Friday agreement gives NI citizens the right to unite with Ireland with a majority vote. The DUP absolutely do not like the good friday agreement.
A hard Brexit is akin to tearing up the good Friday agreement. Hence the backstop. DUP have stated in recent days that they have no issues with a hard brexit 'no deal' scenario - as that's their preferred outcome. Tearing up the GFA.
[/quote]
Please expand on why a hard Brexit tears up the GFA.
Good Friday agreement gives NI citizens the right to unite with Ireland with a majority vote. The DUP absolutely do not like the good friday agreement.
A hard Brexit is akin to tearing up the good Friday agreement. Hence the backstop. DUP have stated in recent days that they have no issues with a hard brexit 'no deal' scenario - as that's their preferred outcome. Tearing up the GFA.
[/quote]
Please expand on why a hard Brexit tears up the GFA.
Bill said:
I agree, and it was always likely to be so.
The winning margin in the referendum wasn't enormous, and then May threw away a working majority and had to get into bed with the DUP. So it became inevitable.
Wasn't enormous ? 1 million more votes in the highest turnout in electorial history.The winning margin in the referendum wasn't enormous, and then May threw away a working majority and had to get into bed with the DUP. So it became inevitable.
s2art said:
Elysium said:
Parliament is against no-deal and the EU can stop it. On that basis it is never going to happen automatically.
Probably, but not certainly. I can see the possibility that , given it needs changes in primary legislation, a blizzard of amendments (ably assisted by the speaker) would either get voted down or not make it time for March 29.Avoiding 'no-deal' is Govt and opposition policy. MP's are going to support measures that allow this to be debated prior to the deadline and May is going to find it hard to fight that as it would look like blatant filibustering.
There is an outside chance that it will still be unclear at our end as we reach the deadline, but, if this happens, the EU are likely to offer us a lifeline by extending.
If you want 'no deal' I don't think you should be banking on it happening by default.
Balmoral said:
It can't be allowed like that as it splits the leave vote. Unless the total of 1 and 2 combined is greater than 3 in which case it's leave under the greater of 1 and 2.
The question can be worded to avoid any possibility of splitting the leave vote. For example by asking it in two parts: 1. Do you want to Leave or Remain?
2. If we Leave should it be with no-deal or Mays deal?
It's really simple and I can't understand why this myth about vote splitting is persisting.
Elysium said:
Balmoral said:
It can't be allowed like that as it splits the leave vote. Unless the total of 1 and 2 combined is greater than 3 in which case it's leave under the greater of 1 and 2.
The question can be worded to avoid any possibility of splitting the leave vote. For example by asking it in two parts: 1. Do you want to Leave or Remain?
2. If we Leave should it be with no-deal or Mays deal?
It's really simple and I can't understand why this myth about vote splitting is persisting.
Elysium said:
s2art said:
Elysium said:
Parliament is against no-deal and the EU can stop it. On that basis it is never going to happen automatically.
Probably, but not certainly. I can see the possibility that , given it needs changes in primary legislation, a blizzard of amendments (ably assisted by the speaker) would either get voted down or not make it time for March 29.Avoiding 'no-deal' is Govt and opposition policy. MP's are going to support measures that allow this to be debated prior to the deadline and May is going to find it hard to fight that as it would look like blatant filibustering.
There is an outside chance that it will still be unclear at our end as we reach the deadline, but, if this happens, the EU are likely to offer us a lifeline by extending.
If you want 'no deal' I don't think you should be banking on it happening by default.
Balmoral said:
Elysium said:
Balmoral said:
It can't be allowed like that as it splits the leave vote. Unless the total of 1 and 2 combined is greater than 3 in which case it's leave under the greater of 1 and 2.
The question can be worded to avoid any possibility of splitting the leave vote. For example by asking it in two parts: 1. Do you want to Leave or Remain?
2. If we Leave should it be with no-deal or Mays deal?
It's really simple and I can't understand why this myth about vote splitting is persisting.
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