Theresa May (Vol.2)
Discussion
davepoth said:
Non-tariff barriers are the real problem, and the cost of compliance with those is what will cause the slow leaching of business from the UK into the EU. That's why it's vital that we have the ability to make the UK competitive, and that means not being bound by the Common External Tariff.
Is that worse than the situation I've outlined? Given we specialise in services to a great extent and the SM is absolute bobbins for services, my finger in the air assessment is that that it's an issue, but not the issue.paulrockliffe said:
Because from within the EU they can supply at zero tariff to the EU, the UK and any country the EU has a FTA. Within the UK they would not benefit from those FTAs because they would only apply to EU countries.
The UK could negotiate the same FTAs in principle, but we have nothing to offer as those countries gain access to the UK by virtue of their FTA with the EU. A separate FTA with the UK would actually be detrimental to those countries.
This is the situation for Turkey and was roundly rejected during the referendum campaign for the reasons above.
What about countries that the EU doesn't have FTA's with. If the UK can secure them and give those countries a route to the EU then isn't that a similar advantage to us?The UK could negotiate the same FTAs in principle, but we have nothing to offer as those countries gain access to the UK by virtue of their FTA with the EU. A separate FTA with the UK would actually be detrimental to those countries.
This is the situation for Turkey and was roundly rejected during the referendum campaign for the reasons above.
paulrockliffe said:
davepoth said:
Non-tariff barriers are the real problem, and the cost of compliance with those is what will cause the slow leaching of business from the UK into the EU. That's why it's vital that we have the ability to make the UK competitive, and that means not being bound by the Common External Tariff.
Is that worse than the situation I've outlined? Given we specialise in services to a great extent and the SM is absolute bobbins for services, my finger in the air assessment is that that it's an issue, but not the issue.So the negotiation that the UK needs to do with a major exporting country like India or Brazil or Malaysia is that we will give you a really good deal on market access for goods if you'll do a good deal on services.
The EU on the other hand has different objectives. Germany wants to protect the mittelstadt, and France wants to protect its farmers. That means that they won't be as aggressive on tariffs as we would be. Under a Common External Tariff we would also not be able to be aggressive on tariffs, which means that we wouldn't be able to negotiate the services market access that we need.
PurpleMoonlight said:
What about countries that the EU doesn't have FTA's with. If the UK can secure them and give those countries a route to the EU then isn't that a similar advantage to us?
In the major example of a customs union the EU has - with Turkey - that's not the case. Turkey is only allowed to sign trade deals with countries the EU has already signed deals with, and has to unilaterally reduce its duty rates to FTA levels even if it hasn't signed a deal with that country. Based on what I've read of the backstop (which is the model for the customs union that the EU eventually wants) it is functionally identical to the Turkey one.
PurpleMoonlight said:
What about countries that the EU doesn't have FTA's with. If the UK can secure them and give those countries a route to the EU then isn't that a similar advantage to us?
In theory, yes. And there's an incentive for the countries to go that way as it's an easier negotiation with fewer compromises with the smaller, less diverse, UK economy. But that's where the scale of the two economies comes in; the EU wouldn't allow it for that reason. Can't blame them fro that at all, just as we shouldn't be setting up this way, the EU shouldn't be accepting of the reciprocal situation, and they aren't.
PurpleMoonlight said:
What about countries that the EU doesn't have FTA's with. If the UK can secure them and give those countries a route to the EU then isn't that a similar advantage to us?
The May WA doesn't allow that.Have you still not understood this simple point?
The May deal prevents UK having FTA's that lower tariff rates below EU levels.
davepoth said:
The UK is (as a country) not especially bothered about reducing tariffs in FTAs - they only affect goods, and the UK's economy is (as you said) based on services.
The people most affected by the protectionist tariff rates, generally the bottom 30% of the income scale, the people left behind and ignored for 30 years, certainly do care about having to pay above world trade costs on their weekly shop.This is one of the major benefits of Brexit for the lower income level people in our country, to throw that aside because the major part of the economy is services based is incredibly ignorant of why the UK voted Brexit.
Labour really don't understand their voters with their current Kier Starmer policy of permanent Customs Union membership.
jsf said:
davepoth said:
The UK is (as a country) not especially bothered about reducing tariffs in FTAs - they only affect goods, and the UK's economy is (as you said) based on services.
The people most affected by the protectionist tariff rates, generally the bottom 30% of the income scale, the people left behind and ignored for 30 years, certainly do care about having to pay above world trade costs on their weekly shop.This is one of the major benefits of Brexit for the lower income level people in our country, to throw that aside because the major part of the economy is services based is incredibly ignorant of why the UK voted Brexit.
Labour really don't understand their voters with their current Kier Starmer policy of permanent Customs Union membership.
jsf said:
davepoth said:
The UK is (as a country) not especially bothered about reducing tariffs in FTAs - they only affect goods, and the UK's economy is (as you said) based on services.
The people most affected by the protectionist tariff rates, generally the bottom 30% of the income scale, the people left behind and ignored for 30 years, certainly do care about having to pay above world trade costs on their weekly shop.This is one of the major benefits of Brexit for the lower income level people in our country, to throw that aside because the major part of the economy is services based is incredibly ignorant of why the UK voted Brexit.
Labour really don't understand their voters with their current Kier Starmer policy of permanent Customs Union membership.
davepoth said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
What about countries that the EU doesn't have FTA's with. If the UK can secure them and give those countries a route to the EU then isn't that a similar advantage to us?
In the major example of a customs union the EU has - with Turkey - that's not the case. Turkey is only allowed to sign trade deals with countries the EU has already signed deals with, and has to unilaterally reduce its duty rates to FTA levels even if it hasn't signed a deal with that country. Based on what I've read of the backstop (which is the model for the customs union that the EU eventually wants) it is functionally identical to the Turkey one.
This isn't Turkey we are talking about but the world's fifth largest economy and it would be an entirely unsatisfactory economic arrangement. Added to which concessions would almost certainly be made in other politically sensitive areas like FOM in order to secure some access for services exports.
It is the sort of arrangement that could only be proposed by either politicians ignorant of economic realities or deliberately trying to sabotage the whole thing.
PurpleMoonlight said:
jsf said:
The May WA doesn't allow that.
Have you still not understood this simple point?
The May deal prevents UK having FTA's that lower tariff rates below EU levels.
We were discussing the post WA UK:EU free trade area.Have you still not understood this simple point?
The May deal prevents UK having FTA's that lower tariff rates below EU levels.
You still dont get it, which is amazing.
jsf said:
Which is based on the terms in the WA, UK wont be able to lower tariffs below EU levels.
You still dont get it, which is amazing.
I get that the UK:EU free trade area will be based on the political declaration.You still dont get it, which is amazing.
May claims the UK will be able to effect trade agreements with the RoW. Is she lying?
PurpleMoonlight said:
May claims the UK will be able to effect trade agreements with the RoW. Is she lying?
Yes and noAs I understand it the UK will be able to negotiate trade deals on services with the ROW if we are in a customs union with the EU, but there will be no incentive for anyone to agree to them.
PurpleMoonlight said:
I get that the UK:EU free trade area will be based on the political declaration.
May claims the UK will be able to effect trade agreements with the RoW. Is she lying?
Yes she is lying if you are understand what a trade deal is for. UK may be able to sign a trade deal, but that deal wont be allowed if it adds advantages over the EU customs union.May claims the UK will be able to effect trade agreements with the RoW. Is she lying?
It would be a pointless exercise and very limited in its scope. Only a politician could try and sell this as being able to do a deal. A businessman would tell you its pointless.
Anyone with their head screwed on would tell you its an unacceptable deal if you want to improve the free trade conditions for the UK.
jsf said:
Yes she is lying if you are understand what a trade deal is for. UK may be able to sign a trade deal, but that deal wont be allowed if it adds advantages over the EU customs union.
It would be a pointless exercise and very limited in its scope. Only a politician could try and sell this as being able to do a deal. A businessman would tell you its pointless.
Anyone with their head screwed on would tell you its an unacceptable deal if you want to improve the free trade conditions for the UK.
Are you claiming the UK will not be able to effect trade agreements with the RoW while in the UK:EU free trade area, but the EU will?It would be a pointless exercise and very limited in its scope. Only a politician could try and sell this as being able to do a deal. A businessman would tell you its pointless.
Anyone with their head screwed on would tell you its an unacceptable deal if you want to improve the free trade conditions for the UK.
If so, wouldn't that contradict the 'level playing field' proposed?
PurpleMoonlight said:
Are you claiming the UK will not be able to effect trade agreements with the RoW while in the UK:EU free trade area, but the EU will?
If so, wouldn't that contradict the 'level playing field' proposed?
What incentive would there be for an RoW nation to do a trade deal with us?If so, wouldn't that contradict the 'level playing field' proposed?
We can offer no better terms than the EU will be offering. And IIRC the EU signing up to a deal gives the RoW nation access to our market with no reciprocity anyway.
Technically we are free to arrange our own trade deals with RoW (so technically May is correct). But there are sufficient strings attached to that ability that practically it will never happen. May is politicking - she knows full well her deal is pretty much the definition of "a bad deal". No real surprise when the person arranging it is Robbins.
Edited to add - it's "level" as far as the EU are concerned as it prevents us taking any competitive advantage - which is one of the main things they are fearful of. Ask yourself why...
PurpleMoonlight said:
Are you claiming the UK will not be able to effect trade agreements with the RoW while in the UK:EU free trade area, but the EU will?
If so, wouldn't that contradict the 'level playing field' proposed?
You have been told how this works numerous times now.If so, wouldn't that contradict the 'level playing field' proposed?
The EU controls the conditions of the Customs Union, if they want to change the terms and that change disadvantages the UK, the UK cant do anything about it.
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