How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
Nickgnome said:
otis criblecoblis said:
So you can't explain how they would work or why they weren't used. As thought.
The 50k number is half the current target number. Helicopter was asked how he would achieve this figure, given how controlled you both say it's possible to be.
Let me state i have no problem with FoM either inter Eu counties or inter UK.The 50k number is half the current target number. Helicopter was asked how he would achieve this figure, given how controlled you both say it's possible to be.
I’m not sure why i am required to explain to you how to repatriate Eu nationals who have no job. Suggest you read the relevant clauses 48 and 49
Why would you want to limit total immigration to 50,000 if the economy needs more? That would be an act of self harm.
This should not be considered mutually exclusive with reducing further our already low unemployment.
The current government has a 100k target for immigration. I personally think it a bit silly to set an actual number, but that's another conversation. The 50k figure is simply half of this to represent the split between EU and rest of world. So you were asked in a hypothetical situation how you would actually control numbers to get close to that figure. I clearly wasn't advocating a 50K total immigration figure.
Odd that we now have Remainers advocating deporting those from the EU. The optics of that done on any scale would really play well to the Guardian crowd, what with kids being removed from schools and deported.
The reason it's not widely used is because it's very expensive and does nothing to control numbers in the way the public wants to see.
Given the current numbers of immigration from outside the EU, the UK doesn't seem to have a shortage of people wanting to come and work here. I don't see the problem in those from the joining the same kinda system.
Coolbanana said:
It isn't really - it is all just opinion and conjecture, there is no hard evidence because the only way to prove any is to thrive as the 5th or better World economy outside of the EU.
So the UK is 5th. Nice, hey?
You are stating that the EU has somehow retarded the UK's performance. Let's look at who the Top 4 are then:
1. USA - the UK is in no position, ever, to compete against the US on equal terms; it has a much larger population and manufacturing base.
2. China - likewise, the Chinese population is just too large and well-organised as manufacturers willing to work for a lot less to compete against.
3. Japan - motor vehicle industry, manufacturing etc. Dwarfs the UK's and I cannot see the UK being any better than it already is outside of the EU; there is nothing restricting it.
4. Germany - significantly stronger than the UK and in the EU...so if the German's can do it...hmmm?
Just where does the evidence you claim to have seen lead the UK? How much better? Able to compete against Germany for the 4th position? Quite a jump but why can Germany be doing so much better from within and the UK not? The German economy is $4.2 Trillion...that's quite some way larger than $2.9. Germany proves a country can make the EU benefit. Or are you suggesting Germany would be much better outside too? Why?
Do you see the UK being able to compete with Japan, having overtaken Germany? How so? What trade deals or restrictions specifically are preventing the UK now? Who can't it trade with favourably that would make a significant difference?
I believe, you will find that the UK, at best, would not thrive any better than it is now, outside of the EU. The EU is not restricting the UK's economy in any significant way. Germany proves this. Or are the Germans just better?
The notion that the UK will thrive better is another red herring - another largely weak excuse and not a very good one when studied properly, without bias.
Compete in what sense? So the UK is 5th. Nice, hey?
You are stating that the EU has somehow retarded the UK's performance. Let's look at who the Top 4 are then: 1. USA - the UK is in no position, ever, to compete against the US on equal terms; it has a much larger population and manufacturing base.
2. China - likewise, the Chinese population is just too large and well-organised as manufacturers willing to work for a lot less to compete against.
3. Japan - motor vehicle industry, manufacturing etc. Dwarfs the UK's and I cannot see the UK being any better than it already is outside of the EU; there is nothing restricting it.
4. Germany - significantly stronger than the UK and in the EU...so if the German's can do it...hmmm?
Just where does the evidence you claim to have seen lead the UK? How much better? Able to compete against Germany for the 4th position? Quite a jump but why can Germany be doing so much better from within and the UK not? The German economy is $4.2 Trillion...that's quite some way larger than $2.9. Germany proves a country can make the EU benefit. Or are you suggesting Germany would be much better outside too? Why?
Do you see the UK being able to compete with Japan, having overtaken Germany? How so? What trade deals or restrictions specifically are preventing the UK now? Who can't it trade with favourably that would make a significant difference?
I believe, you will find that the UK, at best, would not thrive any better than it is now, outside of the EU. The EU is not restricting the UK's economy in any significant way. Germany proves this. Or are the Germans just better?
The notion that the UK will thrive better is another red herring - another largely weak excuse and not a very good one when studied properly, without bias.
The point about being the 5th largest economy isn't that we're in the running for some trophy or poised to join oust China or the US from top spot. The only context I have heard leavers noting this is to assert that we can survive perfectly well outside the EU as many smaller economies do.
Bully boy tactics dont seem to be working against the swiss. Some may find the current EU-swiss renegotiation intersting. The EU threatened the swiss with removal of their equivalence to trade stocks if they didnt sign a new deal by last Friday which gave the EU more power over swiss law and employment.
https://www.thelocal.ch/20181213/what-you-need-to-...
https://www.thelocal.ch/20181213/what-you-need-to-...
toppstuff said:
Sovereignty - meh. It’s a dog whistle word these days but it’s meaningless in the modern world. Globalisation has neutered the concept. We don’t live in days of empire any more.
We do indeed still live in the days of empire and we are going to be subject to one if May's deal goes through or if we remain EU members. jsf said:
Bully boy tactics dont seem to be working against the swiss. Some may find the current EU-swiss renegotiation intersting. The EU threatened the swiss with removal of their equivalence to trade stocks if they didnt sign a new deal by last Friday which gave the EU more power over swiss law and employment.
https://www.thelocal.ch/20181213/what-you-need-to-...
Interesting, thanks for posting.https://www.thelocal.ch/20181213/what-you-need-to-...
When it comes to European neighbours the EU commission seems to have only one template for negotiations, master and subject.
From the other article
"Switzerland had hoped to win the right to an unlimited deal with Leuthard saying the country had fulfilled the same conditions for recognition of stock market equivalence as other third states (non-EU members) who have obtained unlimited access."
Other third states which the EU was not trying to bring under their sway.
Edited by JagLover on Monday 17th December 05:53
I'm seeing the mainstream media currently are headlining "2nd referendum/people's vote" in one form or another.
Not sure if it's been mentioned already but I find the rank hypocrisy of the guardian (I know it's not just confined to them) in particular very hard to stomach when only 10 years ago they were headlining this:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec...
The tone in that article compared to what the guardian have been putting out recently in relation to our own affairs is strikingly different.
I realize it's a decade apart and from different editors but reading the comments section in the guardian is soul destroying, I don't know why I do it. Even linking that article into the comments section on current Brexit articles wouldn't wake their audience up.
Not sure if it's been mentioned already but I find the rank hypocrisy of the guardian (I know it's not just confined to them) in particular very hard to stomach when only 10 years ago they were headlining this:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec...
The tone in that article compared to what the guardian have been putting out recently in relation to our own affairs is strikingly different.
I realize it's a decade apart and from different editors but reading the comments section in the guardian is soul destroying, I don't know why I do it. Even linking that article into the comments section on current Brexit articles wouldn't wake their audience up.
anarki said:
I'm seeing the mainstream media currently are headlining "2nd referendum/people's vote" in one form or another.
and a number (like the economist) are careful to say this should be a choice between May's deal and Remain.Quite how this solves the only issue they care about, which is remaining in the EU without destroying the Tory party (given who controls the Labour party), is rather mysterious.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Compete in what sense?
The point about being the 5th largest economy isn't that we're in the running for some trophy or poised to join oust China or the US from top spot. The only context I have heard leavers noting this is to assert that we can survive perfectly well outside the EU as many smaller economies do.
No, many Leavers have expressed wanting to leave the EU based upon a belief, incorrect in my view, that the EU is holding the UK back, retarding the ability to trade more effectively. The point about being the 5th largest economy isn't that we're in the running for some trophy or poised to join oust China or the US from top spot. The only context I have heard leavers noting this is to assert that we can survive perfectly well outside the EU as many smaller economies do.
I am stating that overall, there would be no improvement and a risk of going backwards.
My point being...using economy as a reason, is not a good one. I then gave an example of a good reason.
Murph7355 said:
Coolbanana said:
It isn't really - it is all just opinion and conjecture, there is no hard evidence because the only way to prove any is to thrive as the 5th or better World economy outside of the EU....
Mostly correct, it is all just opinion and conjecture.But the same applies in reverse - didn't stop one of the Remain numpties on here reckoning we're only 5th because we're in the EU
Where you are off the mark is in thinking there will ever be a way to prove anything on this. There won't. If it were possible to run parallel universes (with the likes of you, MX5nut and Heli123 I'm not overly sure we're not
) then there might be a chance. But there won't....Do you subscribe to that logic generally?
Given it's winter, let's try this: you put Winter tyres on your car, ditching the Summers, drive around, get up the hills no probs, braking distances are good etc.
You then decide, nah, get rid, sell them.
Your car still gets you about, you use your God-like driving skills and "driving to the conditions" but you notice that getting up that hill is slower, bit more slippery, you need to work harder and your braking distances are longer at any given speed. A noticeable degradation in performance, if you are honest with yourself.
Your logic would not allow you to see that the Winter tyres performed better than your Summers in this analogy and you would still be saying there is no proof? Right?
So a degradation of the UK economy outside of the EU, would not constitute proof that being in the EU was actually better, economically, to you.
If this is what you truly believe...don't ever try and lead a business.
Dr Jekyll said:
Coolbanana said:
No, many Leavers have expressed wanting to leave the EU based upon a belief, incorrect in my view, that the EU is holding the UK back, retarding the ability to trade more effectively.
So the customs union and associated tariffs are a figment of our imagination?Seeing as we have just had are arses handed to us in the negotiations, we may have been held back from it being handed to us by other countries we want deals with to be fair. They are going to be laughing when our current rabble come crawling.
don'tbesilly said:
So had I condemned all the Politicians you've condemned above whilst not naming them (I do know to whom you refer by the way) prior to me posting about Juncker it would have justified me posting about Juncker, is that what you're suggesting?
Do you know what my own thoughts are in regards Johnson/Mogg and Farage?
How do you know I haven't condemned them and for the same reasons you've mentioned?
Do you think the same people were responsible for me forming my opinions on the EU?
Do you think anything that they wrote/said were the reasons I voted to leave the EU?
As I posted the video it seems the accusation of double standards was/is aimed at me, if so can you tell me how you arrived at that decision, I can only assume it was something you gleaned from my posts, if so can you cite some examples?
I think you're taking personally what wasn't aimed at you personally.Do you know what my own thoughts are in regards Johnson/Mogg and Farage?
How do you know I haven't condemned them and for the same reasons you've mentioned?
Do you think the same people were responsible for me forming my opinions on the EU?
Do you think anything that they wrote/said were the reasons I voted to leave the EU?
As I posted the video it seems the accusation of double standards was/is aimed at me, if so can you tell me how you arrived at that decision, I can only assume it was something you gleaned from my posts, if so can you cite some examples?
What I posted was a very general point.
Edited by b
hstewie on Monday 17th December 07:33
hstewie on Monday 17th December 07:33Dr Jekyll said:
Coolbanana said:
No, many Leavers have expressed wanting to leave the EU based upon a belief, incorrect in my view, that the EU is holding the UK back, retarding the ability to trade more effectively.
So the customs union and associated tariffs are a figment of our imagination?brexit last night , they live and work in France and are just about to retire, the nub of it was 100% selfish
wanting the benefits of swanning about not putting anyting back into the UK or caring about the people of the UK
just being free to come back to sponge on the NHS when they are old and decrepit ..
p1stonhead said:
You think its held us back?
Seeing as we have just had are arses handed to us in the negotiations, we may have been held back from it being handed to us by other countries we want deals with to be fair. They are going to be laughing when our current rabble come crawling.
Some seem to think that free trade is the route to endless riches.Seeing as we have just had are arses handed to us in the negotiations, we may have been held back from it being handed to us by other countries we want deals with to be fair. They are going to be laughing when our current rabble come crawling.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:Crackie said:
That's a pretty big generalisation based upon some unsupported anecdotes. Would it not be better to use up to date research from people with credible credentials.
If someone thinks 20% over 5 years is the figure, that is fine. I'd rather go with the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics instead. Their most recent research put the no deal figure between 1.0% and 3.1%...…..not good I grant you but significantly better than the projected impact of May's backstop deal.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/new-research-shows-economic-a...
Apologies, I should and could have been clearer.If someone thinks 20% over 5 years is the figure, that is fine. I'd rather go with the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics instead. Their most recent research put the no deal figure between 1.0% and 3.1%...…..not good I grant you but significantly better than the projected impact of May's backstop deal.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/new-research-shows-economic-a...
The 20% over five years was the financial hit someone said they were prepared to personally take if things went badly.
Most people seem to work on the principle "I don't believe it will happen".
I think many people look at studies with an air of "It'll never happen to me".
If it should happen to them I'd like to know how much of a hit people are prepared to take personally, and how well they've prepared for it.
People change jobs and they do the maths to see if they can afford it.
People change car and they do the maths to see if they can afford it.
Who's done the maths to see if they can afford to be 2% worse off or 3% worse off etc.
About half (£279bn) of our imports are from Eurozone countries, and another £66bn from the USA. So about 60% of our imports now cost about 12-15% more than pre-referendum? I could see that quite easily being 2-3% worse off overall.
If that's the case, no maths needed. They've lived it, and has anyone really noticed any difference?
PurpleMoonlight said:
p1stonhead said:
You think its held us back?
Seeing as we have just had are arses handed to us in the negotiations, we may have been held back from it being handed to us by other countries we want deals with to be fair. They are going to be laughing when our current rabble come crawling.
Some seem to think that free trade is the route to endless riches.Seeing as we have just had are arses handed to us in the negotiations, we may have been held back from it being handed to us by other countries we want deals with to be fair. They are going to be laughing when our current rabble come crawling.
jsf said:
Bully boy tactics dont seem to be working against the swiss. Some may find the current EU-swiss renegotiation intersting. The EU threatened the swiss with removal of their equivalence to trade stocks if they didnt sign a new deal by last Friday which gave the EU more power over swiss law and employment.
https://www.thelocal.ch/20181213/what-you-need-to-...
A lot of that seems familiar, including some of the problems, the one sided solutions and the bullying. https://www.thelocal.ch/20181213/what-you-need-to-...
It'll be fun seeing that lot get through a referendum.
PurpleMoonlight said:
p1stonhead said:
You think its held us back?
Seeing as we have just had are arses handed to us in the negotiations, we may have been held back from it being handed to us by other countries we want deals with to be fair. They are going to be laughing when our current rabble come crawling.
Some seem to think that free trade is the route to endless riches.Seeing as we have just had are arses handed to us in the negotiations, we may have been held back from it being handed to us by other countries we want deals with to be fair. They are going to be laughing when our current rabble come crawling.
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