How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

Author
Discussion

Robertj21a

5,210 posts

43 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
toppstuff said:
Robertj21a said:
Perhaps some of us get a bit fed up with your continual pessimism over absolutely anything. Even 'good' news you seem to doubt and I'm sure that you won't really be happy until Corbyn gets in and you can tell us how we asked for it.
It all begins to sound too much like 'The Twins' for my personal liking - but I'm also the first to say that this is a forum for discussion and free speech.
I live here like you do. I’ve got a home, savings , family and friends all invested in the future of this country.

I see warning signs EVERYWHERE that brexit is not a good thing to do right here, right now. I’m in my 50s and although everyone simply discounts my experience and takes the piss, I AM well travelled and I’ve seen and done a lot. I am not apologising for that.

And I don’t like what I see.

Anyhow. It is what it is.

??
I honestly think you're misreading some of all this. You have tended to set yourself up as some form of 'expert' on what other countries think about Brexit. Others, who seem to have travelled just as much, seem to have different views to your own, but it can appear that you believe only your view can be the correct one.
I don't think anyone is deliberately 'taking the piss' - or if they are then it's probably because you have set yourself up to take a tumble.
I can cope with pessimists but, like it or not, your view is just that - your view. You may be proved right, or you may have been suckered in by The Guardian or left-wing views elsewhere, I don't know.
The overall impression you give (to me at least) is that you are quite sensitive to anyone disagreeing with you - in which case you're always going to have some difficulties on this particular thread.


Nath911t

178 posts

135 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
steve_k said:
May deal top 40 horrors

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-17/40-hidde...

I think it will take a bit more than removing the backstop to get through.
I know a few people have quoted this but what an absolute disaster of a "deal" - you'd have to have been dropped on your head a few times to even think May's deal is acceptable.

What's her plan? Leave it to the very last minute and let MPs go for this or no deal?

digimeistter

3,796 posts

147 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
Robertj21a said:
toppstuff said:
Robertj21a said:
Perhaps some of us get a bit fed up with your continual pessimism over absolutely anything. Even 'good' news you seem to doubt and I'm sure that you won't really be happy until Corbyn gets in and you can tell us how we asked for it.
It all begins to sound too much like 'The Twins' for my personal liking - but I'm also the first to say that this is a forum for discussion and free speech.
I live here like you do. I’ve got a home, savings , family and friends all invested in the future of this country.

I see warning signs EVERYWHERE that brexit is not a good thing to do right here, right now. I’m in my 50s and although everyone simply discounts my experience and takes the piss, I AM well travelled and I’ve seen and done a lot. I am not apologising for that.

And I don’t like what I see.

Anyhow. It is what it is.

??
I honestly think you're misreading some of all this. You have tended to set yourself up as some form of 'expert' on what other countries think about Brexit. Others, who seem to have travelled just as much, seem to have different views to your own, but it can appear that you believe only your view can be the correct one.
I don't think anyone is deliberately 'taking the piss' - or if they are then it's probably because you have set yourself up to take a tumble.
I can cope with pessimists but, like it or not, your view is just that - your view. You may be proved right, or you may have been suckered in by The Guardian or left-wing views elsewhere, I don't know.
The overall impression you give (to me at least) is that you are quite sensitive to anyone disagreeing with you - in which case you're always going to have some difficulties on this particular thread.
Yup, well said. I'm in my fifties, I have an SME and responsibilities to all my staff, yet perhaps we are more open to taking a risk than seeing this Country in servitude, as we believe in it.

richie99

940 posts

124 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
Nath911t said:
I know a few people have quoted this but what an absolute disaster of a "deal" - you'd have to have been dropped on your head a few times to even think May's deal is acceptable.

What's her plan? Leave it to the very last minute and let MPs go for this or no deal?
Yep. You've got it! "I just need a bit more time. I will be getting agreement from the EU any day now." Spin it all out, run down the clock. "Oops it's too late to do anything else now."

I think I'd heard somewhere that the reason for trying to delay any parliamentary vote until 27 Feb is that by then it is too late to pass legislation to ask for a delay to Art 50 before we have actually left.

Murph7355

21,303 posts

194 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
Elysium said:
...
I know many on here are in favour of no-deal. I guess they will be pleased that May's no-deal 'bluff' may have turned into a no-deal paralysis where 'running down the clock' is the only way to protect the Tory party.

Let's hope that if it happens, the impact is less severe than some predict.
FWIW I would not be at all surprised if there are other twists and turns over the next few weeks that see BRINO or not actually leaving happen...I would not put it past the scheming idiots in the HoC who after clearly voting for "no deal" as the default, now come out in droves saying we can't let that happen.

The damage to this country, if that happens, will be significant. Not just politically at home, but if anyone even remotely thinks it would improve our standing both within the EU or globally, I'm afraid I think they've been smoking something we will all need much more of. History will not view May and Robbins well on this (or anything else I should think).

I'm of the opinion that the impact of "no deal" could not possibly be any worse than the doom that has been cast around. Medicines being in short supply, traffic through Calais down 87%, job losses, GDP nailed to the wall, security down the toilet so no doubt we'll be subject to mass jihad/Irish people and unionists alike blowing people up again, people being confined to quarters unable to travel anywhere, flights grounded, the car industry killed just before Finance goes the same way, food shortages and horrendous inflation....I'm sure there's quite a bit I've missed. But I'd struggle to think of anything more severe, wouldn't you? (Maybe Ikea will snuff us off a map of the world like they did to NZ?)

No deal would now be my strong preference. The hyperbole is just that. There'd be some wrinkles. A little while of smelling salts and then life would carry on (both sides)...possibly even with some "how the f*ck did we let that happen. Maybe we should now discuss a trade deal without all the handcuffs". And if not for a while, so be that too. I don't see the EU moving on the backstop as they smell blood, rightly or wrongly. Whichever way this goes now, that will also ultimately be a mistake as nothing will have been resolved.


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pingu393

3,086 posts

143 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
richie99 said:
Nath911t said:
I know a few people have quoted this but what an absolute disaster of a "deal" - you'd have to have been dropped on your head a few times to even think May's deal is acceptable.

What's her plan? Leave it to the very last minute and let MPs go for this or no deal?
Yep. You've got it! "I just need a bit more time. I will be getting agreement from the EU any day now." Spin it all out, run down the clock. "Oops it's too late to do anything else now."

I think I'd heard somewhere that the reason for trying to delay any parliamentary vote until 27 Feb is that by then it is too late to pass legislation to ask for a delay to Art 50 before we have actually left.
It might only be Maggie May who can officially ask the EU for an extension to A50.

If there were a vote to extend, I anticipate her getting on the wrong plane, or forgetting her handbag smile

How long would it take for the EU to get all 27 members together to agree? Do they all have to be in the same room at the same time?

I've put off painting the bathroom for ages (I won't specify how long, but it's years, not months smile ). If she wants any hints and tips on delaying tactics, I'm available at reasonable consultancy rates hehe

jonnyb

2,225 posts

190 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Elysium said:
...
I know many on here are in favour of no-deal. I guess they will be pleased that May's no-deal 'bluff' may have turned into a no-deal paralysis where 'running down the clock' is the only way to protect the Tory party.

Let's hope that if it happens, the impact is less severe than some predict.
FWIW I would not be at all surprised if there are other twists and turns over the next few weeks that see BRINO or not actually leaving happen...I would not put it past the scheming idiots in the HoC who after clearly voting for "no deal" as the default, now come out in droves saying we can't let that happen.

The damage to this country, if that happens, will be significant. Not just politically at home, but if anyone even remotely thinks it would improve our standing both within the EU or globally, I'm afraid I think they've been smoking something we will all need much more of. History will not view May and Robbins well on this (or anything else I should think).

I'm of the opinion that the impact of "no deal" could not possibly be any worse than the doom that has been cast around. Medicines being in short supply, traffic through Calais down 87%, job losses, GDP nailed to the wall, security down the toilet so no doubt we'll be subject to mass jihad/Irish people and unionists alike blowing people up again, people being confined to quarters unable to travel anywhere, flights grounded, the car industry killed just before Finance goes the same way, food shortages and horrendous inflation....I'm sure there's quite a bit I've missed. But I'd struggle to think of anything more severe, wouldn't you? (Maybe Ikea will snuff us off a map of the world like they did to NZ?)

No deal would now be my strong preference. The hyperbole is just that. There'd be some wrinkles. A little while of smelling salts and then life would carry on (both sides)...possibly even with some "how the f*ck did we let that happen. Maybe we should now discuss a trade deal without all the handcuffs". And if not for a while, so be that too. I don't see the EU moving on the backstop as they smell blood, rightly or wrongly. Whichever way this goes now, that will also ultimately be a mistake as nothing will have been resolved.
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?

mx5nut

2,881 posts

20 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
scheming idiots in the HoC
I miss the days when Brexiters would pretend to care about parliamentary sovereignty.

Murph7355 said:
I'm of the opinion that the impact of "no deal" could not possibly be any worse than the doom that has been cast around.
Experts claim it will be bad. Social media memes say it'll be OK because we survived the blitz. Poster on a car forum believes the latter.


Murph7355 said:
I don't see the EU moving on the backstop as they smell blood would like to support Ireland and uphold the Good Friday Agreement
Fixed that for you smile

steve_k

366 posts

143 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.



Sway

10,390 posts

132 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
They've already said...

Not having a deal does not mean a wall is going up.

mx5nut

2,881 posts

20 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.

jonnyb

2,225 posts

190 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
I think realism is starting to creep in now, because you note that no one has said that recently. They have both mentioned they are committed to the Good Friday agreement. May even went so far as to state that we needed a deal because of the Good Friday agreement.
But what happens in the even of no deal is anyone’s guess. The only option I see would be an Irish customs union with a customs boarder down the Irish Sea. But isn’t that one of Mays red lines?

steve_k

366 posts

143 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May

jonnyb

2,225 posts

190 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
steve_k said:
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May
So how is she going to do it in the event of no deal?

Vanden Saab

1,599 posts

12 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Feel free to back up this statement with the part in the GFA that says there cannot be future customs arrangements in Ireland to compliment the existing ones. The obvious answer is as the EU have already suggested a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

Murph7355

21,303 posts

194 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
All parties involved have said no harder border on the island of Ireland under any circumstances.

Checks away from the border are fine. Barnier set out wanting them in the Irish Sea, but think about how that helps the Irish peace process...

Putting them in France therefore seems logical. There's (arguably) going to have be something there anyway, there being a border there previously has never been a particular issue and most of the goods etc from Eire destined for the non-UK EU countries comes through the UK anyway. The French port chaps have also been noting there'll be no issues in the event of a no-deal.

However, as Leo, Michele and Theresa have all said no harder infrastructure under any circumstances, perhaps they all ought to now come clean and note what that will actually entail...

steve_k

366 posts

143 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
steve_k said:
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May
So how is she going to do it in the event of no deal?
By not put a border up, nobody would be able to force the UK in a no deal situation.

mx5nut

2,881 posts

20 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
steve_k said:
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May
Her words

"I’m not going to be calling a snap election. I’ve been very clear that I think we need that period of time, that stability, to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020"
Theresa May

Murph7355

21,303 posts

194 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
Against my better judgement I'll reply to one of your posts.

mx5nut said:
I miss the days when Brexiters would pretend to care about parliamentary sovereignty.
I still do. It doesn't stop me having an opinion on the quality of our politicians. They may be idiots, but they're our idiots. We don't need more (so quit practising...you're already very good at it wink).

mx5nut said:
Experts claim it will be bad. Social media memes say it'll be OK because we survived the blitz. Poster on a car forum believes the latter.
Don't believe I mentioned WWII.

Please post the scenarios and economic forecasts that prove (or even attempt to) that we'll be absolutely worse off and I'll STFU.

Until then, you could do us all a favour by doing the same...

mx5nut said:
Fixed that for you smile
No need. It was exactly how I intended the first time round.

The GFA does not need membership of the EU. It does not need the "backstop". It doesn't even need no border.

As noted earlier, there are other solutions to this. The EU would prefer they didn't have to be used (fair play to them), but even they have noted there is no need for a harder border there.

jonnyb

2,225 posts

190 months

Monday 11th February
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
All parties involved have said no harder border on the island of Ireland under any circumstances.

Checks away from the border are fine. Barnier set out wanting them in the Irish Sea, but think about how that helps the Irish peace process...

Putting them in France therefore seems logical. There's (arguably) going to have be something there anyway, there being a border there previously has never been a particular issue and most of the goods etc from Eire destined for the non-UK EU countries comes through the UK anyway. The French port chaps have also been noting there'll be no issues in the event of a no-deal.

However, as Leo, Michele and Theresa have all said no harder infrastructure under any circumstances, perhaps they all ought to now come clean and note what that will actually entail...
But isn’t it one of Mays red lines that NI is not treated any differently to the UK main land? It’s certainly one of the DUPs.