How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

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steve_k

579 posts

155 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.



Sway

13,597 posts

144 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
They've already said...

Not having a deal does not mean a wall is going up.

mx5nut

3,631 posts

32 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.

jonnyb

2,462 posts

202 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
I think realism is starting to creep in now, because you note that no one has said that recently. They have both mentioned they are committed to the Good Friday agreement. May even went so far as to state that we needed a deal because of the Good Friday agreement.
But what happens in the even of no deal is anyone’s guess. The only option I see would be an Irish customs union with a customs boarder down the Irish Sea. But isn’t that one of Mays red lines?

steve_k

579 posts

155 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May

jonnyb

2,462 posts

202 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
steve_k said:
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May
So how is she going to do it in the event of no deal?

Vanden Saab

4,387 posts

24 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Feel free to back up this statement with the part in the GFA that says there cannot be future customs arrangements in Ireland to compliment the existing ones. The obvious answer is as the EU have already suggested a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU.

Murph7355

23,960 posts

206 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
All parties involved have said no harder border on the island of Ireland under any circumstances.

Checks away from the border are fine. Barnier set out wanting them in the Irish Sea, but think about how that helps the Irish peace process...

Putting them in France therefore seems logical. There's (arguably) going to have be something there anyway, there being a border there previously has never been a particular issue and most of the goods etc from Eire destined for the non-UK EU countries comes through the UK anyway. The French port chaps have also been noting there'll be no issues in the event of a no-deal.

However, as Leo, Michele and Theresa have all said no harder infrastructure under any circumstances, perhaps they all ought to now come clean and note what that will actually entail...

steve_k

579 posts

155 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
steve_k said:
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May
So how is she going to do it in the event of no deal?
By not put a border up, nobody would be able to force the UK in a no deal situation.

mx5nut

3,631 posts

32 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
steve_k said:
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May
Her words

"I’m not going to be calling a snap election. I’ve been very clear that I think we need that period of time, that stability, to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020"
Theresa May

Murph7355

23,960 posts

206 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
Against my better judgement I'll reply to one of your posts.

mx5nut said:
I miss the days when Brexiters would pretend to care about parliamentary sovereignty.
I still do. It doesn't stop me having an opinion on the quality of our politicians. They may be idiots, but they're our idiots. We don't need more (so quit practising...you're already very good at it wink).

mx5nut said:
Experts claim it will be bad. Social media memes say it'll be OK because we survived the blitz. Poster on a car forum believes the latter.
Don't believe I mentioned WWII.

Please post the scenarios and economic forecasts that prove (or even attempt to) that we'll be absolutely worse off and I'll STFU.

Until then, you could do us all a favour by doing the same...

mx5nut said:
Fixed that for you smile
No need. It was exactly how I intended the first time round.

The GFA does not need membership of the EU. It does not need the "backstop". It doesn't even need no border.

As noted earlier, there are other solutions to this. The EU would prefer they didn't have to be used (fair play to them), but even they have noted there is no need for a harder border there.

jonnyb

2,462 posts

202 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
All parties involved have said no harder border on the island of Ireland under any circumstances.

Checks away from the border are fine. Barnier set out wanting them in the Irish Sea, but think about how that helps the Irish peace process...

Putting them in France therefore seems logical. There's (arguably) going to have be something there anyway, there being a border there previously has never been a particular issue and most of the goods etc from Eire destined for the non-UK EU countries comes through the UK anyway. The French port chaps have also been noting there'll be no issues in the event of a no-deal.

However, as Leo, Michele and Theresa have all said no harder infrastructure under any circumstances, perhaps they all ought to now come clean and note what that will actually entail...
But isn’t it one of Mays red lines that NI is not treated any differently to the UK main land? It’s certainly one of the DUPs.

jonnyb

2,462 posts

202 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
steve_k said:
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
jonnyb said:
The thing is that both the UK government and the Irish government are committed by international treaty to no hard boarder on the island of Ireland. How would a no deal cope with that. Or do we kiss good by to the Good Friday agreement too?
You need to ask the EU how they will deal with a no deal, the UK government and the Irish government have both said many times they will not be putting up a hard border.
It doesn't have to be a Trump style wall along the length of the border to be in breach of our commitments under the Good Friday Agreement.

And "we do not want to" is not the same as "we will not.
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May
So how is she going to do it in the event of no deal?
By not put a border up, nobody would be able to force the UK in a no deal situation.
You’re not reading the quote.

She’s saying the UK government will not allow a situation where NI has to rely on the Irish government or the E.U. to not put up a hard boarder.

How is she going to do that exactly?

Murph7355

23,960 posts

206 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
...The only option I see would be an Irish customs union with a customs boarder down the Irish Sea. ...
You are Michele Barnier AICMFP.

Sooooooo.

If one can go down the Irish Sea, why not one across the English Channel instead?

(Maybe we should put one down both and Ireland/NI can revel in being the next Luxembourg with joint benefits going to both the UK and EU. That would undoubtedly have the added benefit of pissing off Juncker).

Murph7355

23,960 posts

206 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
...
How is she going to do that exactly?
Errrr....by not picking up shovels and building watchtowers on the UK border.

What Eire and the EU do is then up to them.

But Eire have noted similar to May in the past.

So what is going to happen? Are Tusk, Juncker and Verhofstadt going to be picking up their shovels and popping some on the Irish side of the border at the dead of night?

steve_k

579 posts

155 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
mx5nut said:
steve_k said:
Her words

"Northern Ireland does not have to rely on the Irish Government or the European Union to prevent a return to borders of the past. The UK Government will not let that happen. I will not let that happen."
Theresa May
Her words

"I’m not going to be calling a snap election. I’ve been very clear that I think we need that period of time, that stability, to be able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that election in 2020"
Theresa May
So by your diversion you admit you were wrong again, she did say "will not"

Murph7355

23,960 posts

206 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
Final episode of "Inside Europe" on tonight. BBC2 at 2100.

jonnyb

2,462 posts

202 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
jonnyb said:
...
How is she going to do that exactly?
Errrr....by not picking up shovels and building watchtowers on the UK border.

What Eire and the EU do is then up to them.

But Eire have noted similar to May in the past.

So what is going to happen? Are Tusk, Juncker and Verhofstadt going to be picking up their shovels and popping some on the Irish side of the border at the dead of night?
Again you’re not reading the quote.

How is May going to stop NI relying on the Irish republic or the E.U. to not put up a hard boarder? How is going to take that decision out of their hands in a no deal scenario?

Toaster

2,798 posts

143 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
Here is a trivia question, if we leave the EU without a deal does that mean we can’t buy a Euro lottery ticket.....,,tomorrow the winning ticket is 131 Million if we can’t still play Euro lottery we will all be losers wink

s2art

17,781 posts

203 months

Monday 11th February 2019
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
Murph7355 said:
jonnyb said:
...
How is she going to do that exactly?
Errrr....by not picking up shovels and building watchtowers on the UK border.

What Eire and the EU do is then up to them.

But Eire have noted similar to May in the past.

So what is going to happen? Are Tusk, Juncker and Verhofstadt going to be picking up their shovels and popping some on the Irish side of the border at the dead of night?
Again you’re not reading the quote.

How is May going to stop NI relying on the Irish republic or the E.U. to not put up a hard boarder? How is going to take that decision out of their hands in a no deal scenario?
May wont need to do anything. If the EU and/or Eire try they will achieve the almost impossible and unify (on this issue only) both the nationalists and the unionists. Good luck with that., And good luck getting elected too next Eire elections.
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