How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

[gooner1]

Helicopter123 said:

It is an utterly hopeless deal, but it is Brexit, and as things stand the only possible way that the UK can leave the EU on 29th March,

A week is a long time in today's politics, and the 29th March is over two week away.
" as things stand" may well not be " the only possible way that the UK can leave the EU"
on that date.

Can you remember how many scenarios you have stated as being the end result
of the Brexit saga, to date?

[B'stard Child]

gooner1 said:

Helicopter123 said:

It is an utterly hopeless deal, but it is Brexit, and as things stand the only possible way that the UK can leave the EU on 29th March,

A week is a long time in today's politics, and the 29th March is over two week away.
" as things stand" may well not be " the only possible way that the UK can leave the EU"
on that date.

Can you remember how many scenarios you have stated as being the end result
of the Brexit saga, to date?

Infinity........

Funny that’s twice today I’ve written that

[crankedup]

jonnyb said:

steve_k said:

Elysium said:

steve_k said:

If it goes to a second referendum with the same options leave or remain would a win by remain with a result 51% v 49% be void due to the previous referendum result been a higher majority?

Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?

The first referendum was a straight majority.

If there is a second vote it should be on the same basis.

The only legitimate purpose for a second ref is to tell parliament how to get out of the current deadlock. It would not be a rerun of the first vote.

People will be unhappy whatever we do, but at least with a second referendum we can make sure it is what the majority decide.

I follow the point you are making but how do you decide what is a majority is, 52% has not been accepted last time by some ?

I don’t think anyone is denying that leave won the referendum. But that doesn’t mean everyone has to support it. If labour win the next GE does everyone have to suppor the result? No, every conservative member will be doing everything they can to force another GE.
It’s called democracy.
If you don’t like the result, you don’t have to accept it, you can fight to change the result.
Why should the referendum be any different? If remain had won no one was expecting Farage to disappear. The SNP are still pushing for another vote in Scotland.
It’s democracy in action, if you don’t like it there’s always North Korea.

May I suggest, your last sentence applies equally to you.

[crankedup]

Vanden Saab said:

Helicopter123 said:

Vanden Saab said:

Elysium said:

Who is ignoring the 2016 vote?

Brexit has been rammed down everyone’s throats for almost 3 years. Instead of blaming everyone else how about answering the big question.

How do you expect parliament to choose between a stty deal, a calamitous no-deal or a delay and attempted renegotiation?

Which one of those honours the referendum?

Why can no leavers answer the question?

If you didn't show your own views by calling no deal calamitous and gave the options in an even-handed manner people might consider it worth answering. Maybe...

In what sense would you not consider a 'no-deal' to be calamitous?

Do you watch the news, or listen to every expert from every industry?

I saw you on question time last night...
Good job..

Bloke with big beard

[ITP]

Elysium said:

B'stard Child said:

psi310398 said:

Elysium said:

Who are ‘they’ and how have they ignored the referendum?

As to ‘no deal’ being the only way to honour the vote - that is simply your opinion. It’s not what the referendum said and that won’t change. The shouting and the accusations don’t for one moment alter the fact that we would be leaving the EU if we accepted the withdrawal agreement.

'They' are the leavers here, per your question. They haven't ignored the referendum.

Does anyone here seriously and honestly believe that signing the WA honours the referendum result in any meaningful way beyond the legality that we would no longer be voting members?

I'm sure there are lots of people here that believe it is still "brexit"

I'm of the opinion that no matter how many times you roll a turd in glitter and present it as a polished solution underneath it's still a turd

Yes - it is a stty deal. Not arguing there. But it is undeniably a version of Brexit.

No-deal is also a version of Brexit and a third version might be possible if we delay.

So which one does the referendum mandate?

Can anyone answer the question without simply choosing the one they like?

No deal is brexit.
The EU deal (dressed up as ‘May’s deal’) is not brexit.

It’s simple really, with the EU deal they get all they want, legally. It’s a dream for them, unsurprisingly since it’s their plan in reality. They can continue the progression of the federal dream without us being in Brussels to mess anything up. Plus they can hold us in a customs union hence their rules and restricting our ability to trade elsewhere. How is that brexit? Just not having a seat in Brussels doesn’t equal ‘brexit’ to anyone no matter how many times it’s quoted by remain voters.

It’s like getting divorced from your wife but she can legally stop you seeing other women for ever. Can’t change your mortgage lender or utilities providers either.
She can go off with anyone she wants though, you have no say. If it all goes wrong though, you will be obliged to contribute more money to her errors.
But hey, it’s a version of divorce. Isn’t it?

[alfie2244]

crankedup said:

Bloke with big beard

[Elysium]

psi310398 said:

Elysium said:

The one in my other post

How about a test or two?

Under which version would we able to control immigration, regulation, fishing, the City of London and the great mass of law accounting for up to 65% of the text that controls our lives? When will we be able to agree trade deals with whatever countries we like and are willing to enter into one with us?

The first is a simulacrum of Brexit. I do not agree that it is undeniably a version of Brexit. It makes a mockery of it.

The third is not on offer.

The second meets the referendum result.

Edited by psi310398 on Friday 15th March 20:15

Those are your opinions. I have read posts from leave voters in this thread who are happy to take the deal. Are they wrong? Should parliament do what you want and ignore them?

[Elysium]

ITP said:

No deal is brexit.
The EU deal (dressed up as ‘May’s deal’) is not brexit.

It’s simple really, with the EU deal they get all they want, legally. It’s a dream for them, unsurprisingly since it’s their plan in reality. They can continue the progression of the federal dream without us being in Brussels to mess anything up. Plus they can hold us in a customs union hence their rules and restricting our ability to trade elsewhere. How is that brexit? Just not having a seat in Brussels doesn’t equal ‘brexit’ to anyone no matter how many times it’s quoted by remain voters.

It’s like getting divorced from your wife but she can legally stop you seeing other women for ever. Can’t change your mortgage lender or utilities providers either.
She can go off with anyone she wants though, you have no say. If it all goes wrong though, you will be obliged to contribute more money to her errors.
But hey, it’s a version of divorce. Isn’t it?

Again your opinion. As an objective fact the withdrawal agreement is about leaving the EU. It is the terms of our withdrawal, as described in article 50.

Are parliament supposed to agree with your irrational argument?

[Randy Winkman]

ITP said:

No deal is brexit.

Is "No deal" what you wanted or thought you were going to get from day one?

[Robertj21a]

Randy Winkman said:

ITP said:

No deal is brexit.

Is "No deal" what you wanted or thought you were going to get from day one?

For what it's worth, I guess that the vast majority of the ordinary man/woman in any UK street (outside London......) really doesn't give a toss as to what deal, if any, we get. For all the frothing and foaming we all endure on PH, it may be worth remembering that most of the country just gets on with whatever is their set of priorities at the time. Brexit only really figures in their lives because the News media keep thrusting it down their throats.

[jonnyb]

Robertj21a said:

Randy Winkman said:

ITP said:

No deal is brexit.

Is "No deal" what you wanted or thought you were going to get from day one?

For what it's worth, I guess that the vast majority of the ordinary man/woman in any UK street (outside London......) really doesn't give a toss as to what deal, if any, we get. For all the frothing and foaming we all endure on PH, it may be worth remembering that most of the country just gets on with whatever is their set of priorities at the time. Brexit only really figures in their lives because the News media keep thrusting it down their throats.

[mike9009]

biggles330d said:

I'd love for this to be pushed to a General Election and the Lib Dems come riding in on a single issue policy of withdrawing A50 and abandoning Brexit altogether.

With near 50% of the population having voted to remain, which is a pretty clear and easy to understand concept, and 50% voting to exit but on a total rainbow of flavours that were never defined at the outset, have never been defined since and appear to be at the root of the current chaos as nobody can agree, from Hard Exit no deal to a deal based Exit as close to remaining as makes little difference apart from loosing the ability to influence anything but having some control of immigration.. the Lib Dems could walk a general election with a massive majority as the 'leave' vote was split between a disgruntled electorate who have lost all trust and faith in the Conservatives for creating this whole mess and the horror filled prospect of Corbyn riding in on his bicycle and loony left ideology putting the death nail into the country.

I'd vote Lib Dem every day of the week for that. They couldn't do much damage in 5 years and we'd rid ourselves of this curse of Brexit on a properly democratic decision... a General Election.

I somewhat sympathize with your view. The issue for me is if Brexit is reversed, we will continually have an undercurrent from the Brexit 'gang' about how they were robbed, how 'bad' the EU is and how the EU is on the brink of failure. This could end in complete political paralysis and a complete mistrust in our democracy.

For me the only 'real' route forward is to enact Brexit 'If' it goes Pete Tong, we could go hard Remain (and would probably need to from an EU perspective) The extreme 'political and economic' experiment would then end after finding out the 'real' and 'actual' consequences. (There is obviously a reference point to another country leaving a political/ economic union which did not end too well for said country, until they joined another...…) If the prophesies of 'hope and glory are realised all the better - just feels like gambling everything on black to me.



Mike

[mike9009]

mike9009 said:

biggles330d said:

I'd love for this to be pushed to a General Election and the Lib Dems come riding in on a single issue policy of withdrawing A50 and abandoning Brexit altogether.

With near 50% of the population having voted to remain, which is a pretty clear and easy to understand concept, and 50% voting to exit but on a total rainbow of flavours that were never defined at the outset, have never been defined since and appear to be at the root of the current chaos as nobody can agree, from Hard Exit no deal to a deal based Exit as close to remaining as makes little difference apart from loosing the ability to influence anything but having some control of immigration.. the Lib Dems could walk a general election with a massive majority as the 'leave' vote was split between a disgruntled electorate who have lost all trust and faith in the Conservatives for creating this whole mess and the horror filled prospect of Corbyn riding in on his bicycle and loony left ideology putting the death nail into the country.

I'd vote Lib Dem every day of the week for that. They couldn't do much damage in 5 years and we'd rid ourselves of this curse of Brexit on a properly democratic decision... a General Election.

I somewhat sympathize with your view. The issue for me is if Brexit is reversed, we will continually have an undercurrent from the Brexit 'gang' about how they were robbed, how 'bad' the EU is and how the EU is on the brink of failure. This could end in complete political paralysis and a complete mistrust in our democracy.

For me the only 'real' route forward is to enact Brexit 'If' it goes Pete Tong, we could go hard Remain (and would probably need to from an EU perspective) The extreme 'political and economic' experiment would then end after finding out the 'real' and 'actual' consequences. (There is obviously a reference point to another country leaving a political/ economic union which did not end too well for said country, until they joined another...…) If the prophesies of 'hope and glory are realised all the better - just feels like gambling everything on black to me.



Mike

In fact, a 'No Deal' Brexit would be my preference now.... If we are gambling, why not go all in?

[B'stard Child]

mike9009 said:

I somewhat sympathize with your view. The issue for me is if Brexit is reversed, we will continually have an undercurrent from the Brexit 'gang' about how they were robbed, how 'bad' the EU is and how the EU is on the brink of failure. This could end in complete political paralysis and a complete mistrust in our democracy.

For me the only 'real' route forward is to enact Brexit 'If' it goes Pete Tong, we could go hard Remain (and would probably need to from an EU perspective) The extreme 'political and economic' experiment would then end after finding out the 'real' and 'actual' consequences. (There is obviously a reference point to another country leaving a political/ economic union which did not end too well for said country, until they joined another...…) If the prophesies of 'hope and glory are realised all the better - just feels like gambling everything on black to me.



Mike

Or red

[Robertj21a]

mike9009 said:

In fact, a 'No Deal' Brexit would be my preference now.... If we are gambling, why not go all in?

A number of us have always thought that we should have simply gone with No Deal - and made it quite clear all along that we would stick to it.

[mike9009]

Robertj21a said:

mike9009 said:

In fact, a 'No Deal' Brexit would be my preference now.... If we are gambling, why not go all in?

A number of us have always thought that we should have simply gone with No Deal - and made it quite clear all along that we would stick to it.

I know - like betting on number 7 because it is your favourite number! My opinion is the exact opposite of yours, but sometimes we need to learn by doing. Shame our politicians won't just get on with it.....

[B'stard Child]

Robertj21a said:

mike9009 said:

In fact, a 'No Deal' Brexit would be my preference now.... If we are gambling, why not go all in?

A number of us have always thought that we should have simply gone with No Deal - and made it quite clear all along that we would stick to it.

Right from day 1 - the EU was always gonna protect the project (yes please note I didn't call it "das projekt") and negotiations were pretty pointless - they would want to limit any freedom to compete and try to keep the UK tied as close to the project as they could

May like a lamb to the slaughter just keeps giving ground whilst projecting an image of talking tough and winning concessions

fking hill air e arse

[mike9009]

Robertj21a said:

mike9009 said:

In fact, a 'No Deal' Brexit would be my preference now.... If we are gambling, why not go all in?

A number of us have always thought that we should have simply gone with No Deal - and made it quite clear all along that we would stick to it.

I know and judging by the length of this thread the experiment needs to commence! Probably like putting all ones cash on number 7 because it is your favourite number. I just wish the politicians would take a brave pill and do it now!

[ITP]

Randy Winkman said:

ITP said:

No deal is brexit.

Is "No deal" what you wanted or thought you were going to get from day one?

No deal is not anyone’s first choice in an ideal world.
However, it is exactly what I expected from day 1, yes. This is because the EU was never going to agree to a nice smooth friendly deal that benefitted both sides.

Barnier even stated right at the start it was his job to come up with a deal so bad for us no one else would ever try to leave. Maybe someone can find the actual words, but it was pretty much along those lines.

We have known for years how the EU operates with other countries that have tried to leave. What is shocking to me is how so many people, even the allegedly much better educated remain voters, were unaware of this fact, and seem to actually think a ‘deal’ actually was ever going to be offered by the EU which wasn’t massively biased in their favour. It’s always been clear to see the stance they would take. And sure enough, they have. I can’t understand why people seem to be surprised, and why everyone keeps blaming May. It doesn’t matter who was in power, conservative or labour, any leader of any party, the EU offer would be the same.

What May has catastrophically failed to do since day 1 is plan for no deal, as this is the only way to leave the EU that they have no control over.

I don’t blame the EU for their stance, it’s their club we said we want to leave after all. But for the reasons above we would only ever be able to leave with no deal, followed by a trade deal discussion when the EU couldn’t hold a gun to our heads legally. The businesses of the EU will of course still want to trade with us, as we do with them, but there will always be a period of disruption of course, mainly because the EU politicians will probably try to be as obstructive as possible to ‘teach us a lesson’.

But the bottom line is, I personally believe the integrity of our democracy, which both parties are playing fast and loose with at the moment, is worth a lot more than a period of short term disruption.
Other people take the opposite view, which is fine for them.

And no, the current deal on offer is not enacting the pledge all parties gave the electorate to leave, that is not possible when the EU still holds legal control over what we can do.
In my opinion of course.

[B'stard Child]

mike9009 said:

I know and judging by the length of this thread the experiment needs to commence! Probably like putting all ones cash on number 7 because it is your favourite number. I just wish the politicians would take a brave pill and do it now!

I agree however they are all stting themselves because the flack when it all goes wrong is going to be in one direction if it all goes Pete Tong

Trouble is they are blind to the levers that they have

I honestly wish that they would say OK we leave - we need to change the direction of the UK and it's going to be a few rocky years as a result but the people voted for a change