How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

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Norfolkit

2,042 posts

129 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
biggles330d said:
I'd vote Lib Dem every day of the week for that. They couldn't do much damage in 5 years and we'd rid ourselves of this curse of Brexit on a properly democratic decision... a General Election.
Remind me again, in what way a general election is more democratic than the referendum. In a general election many votes are wasted before they are even cast. Is there any point in voting Conservative in a rock solid Labour seat? Frankly, no (same the other way around obviously), it's not as if that vote will count in a bigger pot, it doesn't count at all in the grand scheme of things.

At least with the referendum all votes as it wasn't by constituency/ward /region, just biggest pile wins, they all counted.

In no way in a general election more "properly democratic".



Nickgnome

1,563 posts

28 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Ructions said:
Have the EU said they will actually grant an extension? I think they should just throw you out on your ear and leave you to it.
In theory yes but conditional on our stated reason for the extension and length.

jsf

12,557 posts

175 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Elysium said:
I just read a comment piece in today’s times that makes a lot of sense.

The people’s vote and labour second ref supporters referred to the Kyle Wilson amendment as a preferential route to a second ref.

This was supposed to be tabled on Tuesday when the EU deal was put to the second meaningful vote. However it was withdrawn. The amendment would see labour support the deal in return for an undertaking that it would go to a plebiscite (second ref) who would choose between ‘the deal’ and ‘remain’

The Times piece suggests that this could now reappear for the third meaningful vote as a high stakes manoeuvre for Corbyn and May.

It makes a lot of sense as it crystallises a number of things.
The Grieve total stitch up choice, which will destroy UK politics. If you want to see far right politics take hold in the UK, go for it.

don'tbesilly

7,171 posts

102 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Elysium said:
I just read a comment piece in today’s times that makes a lot of sense.

The people’s vote and labour second ref supporters referred to the Kyle Lewis amendment as a preferential route to a second ref.

This was supposed to be tabled on Tuesday when the EU deal was put to the second meaningful vote. However it was withdrawn. The amendment would see labour support the deal in return for an undertaking that it would go to a plebiscite (second ref) who would choose between ‘the deal’ and ‘remain’

The Times piece suggests that this could now reappear for the third meaningful vote as a high stakes manoeuvre for Corbyn and May.

It makes a lot of sense as it crystallises a number of things.
If it comes about Remain would clearly win, the option of May's deal or Remain makes Remaining the obvious choice.

I can't imagine the turn out for the 2nd referendum would be very convincing in terms of people having changed their minds, and remaining in the EU is what the majority of Leave voters wanted, it is purely the better of two very bad options (for Leave voters).

I wouldn't bother voting, given anything else if Parliament don't get the result they wanted it would get ignored, just like the first.

Elysium

2,675 posts

126 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Ructions said:
Have the EU said they will actually grant an extension? I think they should just throw you out on your ear and leave you to it.
The EU will not be asked for an extension until we have the third meaningful vote next week.

If the deal is approved we ask for a delay to 30th June if it is rejected we ask for longer.

There is an EU council meeting a few days after the vote at which the EU27 leaders will decide how to proceed.

If we are going for the longer delay they will want reasons clearly set out to explain how we will use any additional time.
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mattmurdock

1,675 posts

172 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
wc98 said:
i would agree with just about all of that except the withdrawal agreement doesn't meet the definition of leaving without relying on a third party, the eu, to make it so. yes, imo, but i really do struggle as do quite a few remain votes i have spoken to, to see how it does.

i really do feel many of the complexities parliament faces today are of their own making.
Well, indeed, we are where we are because of some poor decision making, and a snap GE where clearly domestic issues rather than Brexit were the deciding factors.

The issue with the backstop is that instead of taking some time to think about the consequences of the Irish border and preparing solutions, the government triggered Article 50 in haste. I totally understand why they did it, because they committed to implementing the referendum decision, and you can't really say that we are implementing it if we haven't triggered Article 50.

This left us in the situation where the Irish border was not properly considered, and when the government then insisted on red lines which were more of the 'hard leave' spectrum rather than the 'soft leave' spectrum (again understandable, you can't really leave the EU and yet still remain in a number of its institutions) the EU responded appropriately in drawing its own lines around protection of the Single Market. Thus an impasse where it was not possible to solve the Irish border in the time allowed without an 'insurance' backstop which by its very nature must NOT be able to be unilaterally bypassed by either party without an extremely good reason.

So, because the Withdrawal Agreement is adamant that we must actually leave, we have ended up in a situation where legally we cannot actually leave without a breakdown in negotiations. Excuse me while I polish my crystal ball, but I honestly cannot see how it would have ended up with any other outcome given the same starting conditions.

Having a committed Leave MP in charge would have simply led to pretty much the same agreement, but with bigger divisions in Parliament, as leaving with no deal was not going to happen. Having a more collegiate or consensus based approach from the beginning would have led to watering down of the red lines, leading to potential inclusion in a more Norway or Swiss style approach where we were still part of the Single Market with FMOL and being rule takers, which would also not satisfy the definition of leave.

Based on this, I absolutely believe that May's deal is the most pragmatic leave solution and that the backstop will be resolved some point down the line during the future negotiations, and that those people who are strictly opposed to that are doing so out of ideological reasons related to their personal hatred of the EU, rather than out of any logical assessment.

Nickgnome

1,563 posts

28 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
jsf said:
Elysium said:
I just read a comment piece in today’s times that makes a lot of sense.

The people’s vote and labour second ref supporters referred to the Kyle Wilson amendment as a preferential route to a second ref.

This was supposed to be tabled on Tuesday when the EU deal was put to the second meaningful vote. However it was withdrawn. The amendment would see labour support the deal in return for an undertaking that it would go to a plebiscite (second ref) who would choose between ‘the deal’ and ‘remain’

The Times piece suggests that this could now reappear for the third meaningful vote as a high stakes manoeuvre for Corbyn and May.

It makes a lot of sense as it crystallises a number of things.
The Grieve total stitch up choice, which will destroy UK politics. If you want to see far right politics take hold in the UK, go for it.
I think if a far right party sprung up at least we would be able to see the real mindset of what I hope would be a few of the population but probably in reality many more.

Visibility of these people is a good thing.

Elysium

2,675 posts

126 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Elysium said:
I just read a comment piece in today’s times that makes a lot of sense.

The people’s vote and labour second ref supporters referred to the Kyle Lewis amendment as a preferential route to a second ref.

This was supposed to be tabled on Tuesday when the EU deal was put to the second meaningful vote. However it was withdrawn. The amendment would see labour support the deal in return for an undertaking that it would go to a plebiscite (second ref) who would choose between ‘the deal’ and ‘remain’

The Times piece suggests that this could now reappear for the third meaningful vote as a high stakes manoeuvre for Corbyn and May.

It makes a lot of sense as it crystallises a number of things.
If it comes about Remain would clearly win, the option of May's deal or Remain makes Remaining the obvious choice.

I can't imagine the turn out for the 2nd referendum would be very convincing in terms of people having changed their minds, and remaining in the EU is what the majority of Leave voters wanted, it is purely the better of two very bad options (for Leave voters).

I wouldn't bother voting, given anything else if Parliament don't get the result they wanted it would get ignored, just like the first.
I don’t believe that a referendum can succeed now without a no-deal option.

However, I suspect May will want this on the order paper as a last ditch effort to get the ERG to support the deal, gambling that it will be defeated before the final vote.


Isaac Hunt

9,491 posts

150 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Shall we have a sweepstake to see who can guess the volume number of this topic at the time we actually get Brexit?

alfie2244

9,469 posts

127 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Nickgnome said:
I think if a far right party sprung up at least we would be able to see the real mindset of what I hope would be a few of the population but probably in reality many more.

Visibility of these people is a good thing.
Don't you think UKIP may be moving that way and leaving a hole for a new"not so far" right party to fill.....perhaps with Brexit as it's main, if not only issue?

psi310398

2,595 posts

142 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
As we have our crystal balls out, might one possible unforeseen consequence of entering into the WA or remaining locked to the EU be to provoke the rise of an English independence movement?

The only legal unilateral way out of the backstop that I can see is for England to leave the UK.

One of the arguments from the time of the Scottish Referendum was that if it was OK for Scotland to have a referendum to leave the UK, then surely it was equally possible for England to do the same.

Following the logic of this (and the EU's pronouncements at the time) rUK would be Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales (if they didn't go with England) and it (rUK) would continue to hold the legal obligations to observe the backstop etc.

At the same time, NI could be offered a referendum (per the GFA) on whether to unite with Ireland or, failing that, join with England or stay with rUK.

But, assuming a positive vote, England (as a "new" nation) would be free and clear of any obligations to the EU.





z4RRSchris

9,095 posts

118 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
in in in

Amateurish

5,824 posts

161 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
andymadmak said:
rolleyes

Do keep up at the back! hehe
The Lib Dems DID NOT stand on a manifesto pledge to remain (much to my chagrin). Their manifesto was for a referendum on the deal.

In my opinion, they should have stood on the basis of cancel brexit. In any event, everyone seems to think they did.

Amateurish

5,824 posts

161 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
In my opinion, the DUP (and therefore the ERG) will get behind May's deal on the basis of Cox's new legal advice that we can exit the backstop unilaterally.

That should be enough to get it over the line.

psi310398

2,595 posts

142 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Amateurish said:
In my opinion, the DUP (and therefore the ERG) will get behind May's deal on the basis of Cox's new legal advice that we can exit the backstop unilaterally.

That should be enough to get it over the line.
The DUP might, just might, change their minds but the ERG lawyers have already shot down the new (and very thin) Cox line of argument.

PurpleMoonlight

14,845 posts

96 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Amateurish said:
In my opinion, the DUP (and therefore the ERG) will get behind May's deal on the basis of Cox's new legal advice that we can exit the backstop unilaterally.

That should be enough to get it over the line.
What new advice?

Elysium

2,675 posts

126 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Elysium said:
I don’t believe that a referendum can succeed now without a no-deal option.

However, I suspect May will want this on the order paper as a last ditch effort to get the ERG to support the deal, gambling that it will be defeated before the final vote.
It just occurred to me that the ERG might support this amendment with the further addition of a no-deal option.

I think we have a 2 horse race:

1. Approval of Mays deal without amendment
2. Approval of Mays deal subject to a referendum (deal, no deal or remain).



don'tbesilly

7,171 posts

102 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
Isaac Hunt said:
Shall we have a sweepstake to see who can guess the volume number of this topic at the time we actually get Brexit?
Can we hold fire on that until we know whether the extension will be short, a year,five, or like the backstop, for ever wink

psi310398

2,595 posts

142 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
What new advice?
See today's Telegraph. Not sure I'm allowed to link.

PurpleMoonlight

14,845 posts

96 months

Friday 15th March
quotequote all
psi310398 said:
See today's Telegraph. Not sure I'm allowed to link.
Please do.