How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)
Discussion
Garvin said:
3. If those rational thinking Remainers were honest about getting a deal, apart from the current WA, through Parliament then at least some of them would try to help define alternative approaches/solutions but they haven't.
The issue is that some people seem to think the impossible is actually possible.Brexit always has been like trying to get 2 + 2 = 5. It's simply not possible. You can dress it up any which way you like, but the fact remains, there is no solution to Brexit. Which is why, more than 3 years later, and just a few days (again) before we are leaving, there is NO solution. if there were, it would have been found by now. The fundamental issue is that the original referendum asked for a vote on something that was impossible, but because it was complex and difficult, no one could be bothered to really work out what could be actually delivered, so the majoiry voted to do the impossible (take back control & give £350 a week to the NHS), and swept under the carpet any concerns they might have had as to the realism of those requests.
In many ways, it's the same as a couple with 3 kids, who have been married for 40 years, getting a divorce. In all cases, all parties are on the loosing side..........
Take just the NI border. There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. People say stupid things like "oh, we can have a technology border" as if that is some kind of actual solution, but it just falls into the same levels as the statement "to get to the moon you just have to go up" and ignores the rather obvious evidence that it actually took $600 billion dollars in todays money and 10 years to do so.
So, in summary to say "no ones suggested a solution to Brexit" is pretty much as nieve as the orignal "do you want to leave the EU" vote........
The Don of Croy said:
I'm sure when I was walking down the shops this am I could actually hear Barnier laughing...the next bit of negotiating is going to be so much fun.
While we're about it, could we not beg for adoption of the Euro, too?
We'll certainly have a strong hand to play, what with us holding our cards the wrong way round and not even understanding the rules.
Satire is dead. Long live an independant Britain.
JWhile we're about it, could we not beg for adoption of the Euro, too?
We'll certainly have a strong hand to play, what with us holding our cards the wrong way round and not even understanding the rules.
Satire is dead. Long live an independant Britain.
Has the lack of Meds started already, or was it an alcohol induced Barnier hallucination?
The Don of Croy said:
I'm sure when I was walking down the shops this am I could actually hear Barnier laughing...the next bit of negotiating is going to be so much fun.
While we're about it, could we not beg for adoption of the Euro, too?
We'll certainly have a strong hand to play, what with us holding our cards the wrong way round and not even understanding the rules.
Satire is dead. Long live an independant Britain.
What negotiating? The WA is competed and he has not had a revised mandate from the Council. BJ has visited Merke and Macron and agreed to present new proposals for the Irish border. BJ has said this is well advance and only 1 in a million it will not succeed. I am sure BJ will present his new master plan soon. While we're about it, could we not beg for adoption of the Euro, too?
We'll certainly have a strong hand to play, what with us holding our cards the wrong way round and not even understanding the rules.
Satire is dead. Long live an independant Britain.
Or BJ could be lying.
Leins said:
Hard to know how the numbers in a GE will stack up, but is there the possibility for a Tory / TBP coalition without the DUP? Would that then allow for the option of NI to be left in the CU and a deal be agreed upon? I can't believe the plan has been "no deal" all along, but maybe I'm wrong.
Why on earth would TBP sign up to NI being left in the CU?psi310398 said:
Leins said:
Hard to know how the numbers in a GE will stack up, but is there the possibility for a Tory / TBP coalition without the DUP? Would that then allow for the option of NI to be left in the CU and a deal be agreed upon? I can't believe the plan has been "no deal" all along, but maybe I'm wrong.
Why on earth would TBP sign up to NI being left in the CU?Do TBP care much about NI?
Max_Torque said:
Garvin said:
3. If those rational thinking Remainers were honest about getting a deal, apart from the current WA, through Parliament then at least some of them would try to help define alternative approaches/solutions but they haven't.
The issue is that some people seem to think the impossible is actually possible.Brexit always has been like trying to get 2 + 2 = 5. It's simply not possible. You can dress it up any which way you like, but the fact remains, there is no solution to Brexit. Which is why, more than 3 years later, and just a few days (again) before we are leaving, there is NO solution. if there were, it would have been found by now. The fundamental issue is that the original referendum asked for a vote on something that was impossible, but because it was complex and difficult, no one could be bothered to really work out what could be actually delivered, so the majoiry voted to do the impossible (take back control & give £350 a week to the NHS), and swept under the carpet any concerns they might have had as to the realism of those requests.
In many ways, it's the same as a couple with 3 kids, who have been married for 40 years, getting a divorce. In all cases, all parties are on the loosing side..........
Take just the NI border. There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. People say stupid things like "oh, we can have a technology border" as if that is some kind of actual solution, but it just falls into the same levels as the statement "to get to the moon you just have to go up" and ignores the rather obvious evidence that it actually took $600 billion dollars in todays money and 10 years to do so.
So, in summary to say "no ones suggested a solution to Brexit" is pretty much as nieve as the orignal "do you want to leave the EU" vote........
Mrr T said:
I have it now. In an attempt to get a better deal we should threaten to shoot ourselves. I have always called it the reverse Russian roulette strategy, but others seem to call it the blazing saddles strategy.
Now that's what I call a great plan.
I will ignore your insults in the knowledge I am likely much better qualified than you.
I just love these self-opinionated, supposedly clever, (but often 'thick') people. They have such low esteem that they should go on those programmes about 'Don't you know who I am'. Now that's what I call a great plan.
I will ignore your insults in the knowledge I am likely much better qualified than you.
Leins said:
To get into government with the Tories, if that’s what Johnson’s plan has been all along. He keeps saying a deal is getting close and maybe he’s correct, but I can’t see it happening any other way
Do TBP care much about NI?
I think they only really care about leaving (completely) but if they did care about anything else, the Union would be pretty high up the totem pole.Do TBP care much about NI?
Max_Torque said:
Garvin said:
3. If those rational thinking Remainers were honest about getting a deal, apart from the current WA, through Parliament then at least some of them would try to help define alternative approaches/solutions but they haven't.
The issue is that some people seem to think the impossible is actually possible.Brexit always has been like trying to get 2 + 2 = 5. It's simply not possible. You can dress it up any which way you like, but the fact remains, there is no solution to Brexit. Which is why, more than 3 years later, and just a few days (again) before we are leaving, there is NO solution. if there were, it would have been found by now. The fundamental issue is that the original referendum asked for a vote on something that was impossible, but because it was complex and difficult, no one could be bothered to really work out what could be actually delivered, so the majoiry voted to do the impossible (take back control & give £350 a week to the NHS), and swept under the carpet any concerns they might have had as to the realism of those requests.
In many ways, it's the same as a couple with 3 kids, who have been married for 40 years, getting a divorce. In all cases, all parties are on the loosing side..........
Take just the NI border. There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. People say stupid things like "oh, we can have a technology border" as if that is some kind of actual solution, but it just falls into the same levels as the statement "to get to the moon you just have to go up" and ignores the rather obvious evidence that it actually took $600 billion dollars in todays money and 10 years to do so.
So, in summary to say "no ones suggested a solution to Brexit" is pretty much as nieve as the orignal "do you want to leave the EU" vote........
https://reaction.life/number-10-plotting-irish-bor...
TL;DR version Irish Sea border for agricultural movements only.
Possibly amenable to DUP.
A mini backstop if you will.
Be interesting to see if anything comes of it.
Max_Torque said:
Take just the NI border.
There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. ....
You are so wrong ... there IS a border and has been since the founding of the Free State in 1922 There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. ....
There are different laws, different tax regimes etc
Which destroys all your arguments as you have shown a complete lack of knowledge in this area
Earthdweller said:
Max_Torque said:
Take just the NI border.
There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. ....
You are so wrong ... there IS a border and has been since the founding of the Free State in 1922 There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. ....
There are different laws, different tax regimes etc
Which destroys all your arguments as you have shown a complete lack of knowledge in this area
But practically there is nothing at all.
It’s the practical element that doesn’t work going forwards, because there’s only been need for a technical one to date.
Max_Torque said:
The issue is that some people seem to think the impossible is actually possible.
Brexit always has been like trying to get 2 + 2 = 5. It's simply not possible. You can dress it up any which way you like, but the fact remains, there is no solution to Brexit. Which is why, more than 3 years later, and just a few days (again) before we are leaving, there is NO solution. if there were, it would have been found by now. The fundamental issue is that the original referendum asked for a vote on something that was impossible, but because it was complex and difficult, no one could be bothered to really work out what could be actually delivered, so the majoiry voted to do the impossible (take back control & give £350 a week to the NHS), and swept under the carpet any concerns they might have had as to the realism of those requests.
In many ways, it's the same as a couple with 3 kids, who have been married for 40 years, getting a divorce. In all cases, all parties are on the loosing side..........
Take just the NI border. There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. People say stupid things like "oh, we can have a technology border" as if that is some kind of actual solution, but it just falls into the same levels as the statement "to get to the moon you just have to go up" and ignores the rather obvious evidence that it actually took $600 billion dollars in todays money and 10 years to do so.
So, in summary to say "no ones suggested a solution to Brexit" is pretty much as nieve as the orignal "do you want to leave the EU" vote........
I disagree. It is possible to leave the EU its just the WA or ND are not good options. Brexit always has been like trying to get 2 + 2 = 5. It's simply not possible. You can dress it up any which way you like, but the fact remains, there is no solution to Brexit. Which is why, more than 3 years later, and just a few days (again) before we are leaving, there is NO solution. if there were, it would have been found by now. The fundamental issue is that the original referendum asked for a vote on something that was impossible, but because it was complex and difficult, no one could be bothered to really work out what could be actually delivered, so the majoiry voted to do the impossible (take back control & give £350 a week to the NHS), and swept under the carpet any concerns they might have had as to the realism of those requests.
In many ways, it's the same as a couple with 3 kids, who have been married for 40 years, getting a divorce. In all cases, all parties are on the loosing side..........
Take just the NI border. There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. People say stupid things like "oh, we can have a technology border" as if that is some kind of actual solution, but it just falls into the same levels as the statement "to get to the moon you just have to go up" and ignores the rather obvious evidence that it actually took $600 billion dollars in todays money and 10 years to do so.
So, in summary to say "no ones suggested a solution to Brexit" is pretty much as nieve as the orignal "do you want to leave the EU" vote........
What is impossible is unpicking the UK economy from the UK in 2 years. Or maybe ever.
What should have happened after the referendum is an enquiry into the options to leave rather than trigger art 50.
The UK could have looked at the options of staying in the SM or the CU and the benefits and costs of leaving.
I have seen no good reason leavers are so desperate to leave the SM. The fact is most standards from aerospace to food are set at international level. The real gains are small.
I can see the benefit of leaving the CU is that the UK can negotiate its own FTA. The down side is losing access to the existing EU agreements.
The only plan which worked was Flexit, EFTA/EEA and a CU or agreement by the UK to match EU tarrifs.
The UK would then leave the EU with little impact on business.
Once the UK had left it could then look (with the EU) at how to manage a tarrifs border. That is much easier than a full border. If the benefits where such that the UK could exit the CU and a solution for Ireland developed we could leave.
Leaving the EU should have been planned as a multi stage plan.
Mrr T said:
EDITED FOR SPACE
Leaving the EU should have been planned as a multi stage plan.
Interesting arguments but don't they fall down on this last point? This was never on offer, nor likely to be on offer as the EU has absolutely no interest in making the UK's departure easy if done on equitable terms (it should but it doesn't).Leaving the EU should have been planned as a multi stage plan.
Max_Torque said:
The issue is that some people seem to think the impossible is actually possible.
Brexit always has been like trying to get 2 + 2 = 5. It's simply not possible. You can dress it up any which way you like, but the fact remains, there is no solution to Brexit. Which is why, more than 3 years later, and just a few days (again) before we are leaving, there is NO solution. if there were, it would have been found by now. The fundamental issue is that the original referendum asked for a vote on something that was impossible, but because it was complex and difficult, no one could be bothered to really work out what could be actually delivered, so the majoiry voted to do the impossible (take back control & give £350 a week to the NHS), and swept under the carpet any concerns they might have had as to the realism of those requests.
In many ways, it's the same as a couple with 3 kids, who have been married for 40 years, getting a divorce. In all cases, all parties are on the loosing side..........
Take just the NI border. There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. People say stupid things like "oh, we can have a technology border" as if that is some kind of actual solution, but it just falls into the same levels as the statement "to get to the moon you just have to go up" and ignores the rather obvious evidence that it actually took $600 billion dollars in todays money and 10 years to do so.
So, in summary to say "no ones suggested a solution to Brexit" is pretty much as nieve as the orignal "do you want to leave the EU" vote........
Good points there.Brexit always has been like trying to get 2 + 2 = 5. It's simply not possible. You can dress it up any which way you like, but the fact remains, there is no solution to Brexit. Which is why, more than 3 years later, and just a few days (again) before we are leaving, there is NO solution. if there were, it would have been found by now. The fundamental issue is that the original referendum asked for a vote on something that was impossible, but because it was complex and difficult, no one could be bothered to really work out what could be actually delivered, so the majoiry voted to do the impossible (take back control & give £350 a week to the NHS), and swept under the carpet any concerns they might have had as to the realism of those requests.
In many ways, it's the same as a couple with 3 kids, who have been married for 40 years, getting a divorce. In all cases, all parties are on the loosing side..........
Take just the NI border. There is no solution to this, because there currently isn't a border there, and there will need to be one after we have left the EU. People say stupid things like "oh, we can have a technology border" as if that is some kind of actual solution, but it just falls into the same levels as the statement "to get to the moon you just have to go up" and ignores the rather obvious evidence that it actually took $600 billion dollars in todays money and 10 years to do so.
So, in summary to say "no ones suggested a solution to Brexit" is pretty much as nieve as the orignal "do you want to leave the EU" vote........
It seems bizarre to me that people cannot understand that our entire nation has been shaped and developed over the last 46 years by the fact that we are European.
Our businesses, industries and commerce are, in one way or another, to a greater or lesser extent, European.
I was ridiculed by some on here they other day because I suggested that my wife's UK based manufacturing company may suffer after Brexit because all their customers are in mainland Europe.
Some posters suggested that the factory, which has been painstakingly developed over 40 years to be a specialist European producer of one certain material, could simply start producing something else, find new customers, and stop moaning.
It was total pie in the sky drivel.
Like telling someone like McLaren to simply stop moaning and start making Toasters for the Korean market instead of making cars.
People here are living in fantasy land if they think we can simply leave the EU after all these years and things will be possibly OK.
People like myself have known absolutely nothing else apart from being European.
Back in 2016, Sir Ivan Rogers stated that:
"It could take at least 10 years, possibly much longer to properly negotiate our departure from the EU"
"EU-Canada deal, took seven years to negotiate and was about 22 years in the making. But this was a relatively simple trade agreement that does not include the services provisions and deals on non-tariff barriers that a big exporter of professional services such as Britain will almost certainly require".
3 years and counting isn't even scratching the surface of what may be required here.
Some of you people are verging on insane with your gung-ho attitudes to leaving, and also completely in denial over what is actually involved in leaving.
Robertj21a said:
Mrr T said:
I have it now. In an attempt to get a better deal we should threaten to shoot ourselves. I have always called it the reverse Russian roulette strategy, but others seem to call it the blazing saddles strategy.
Now that's what I call a great plan.
I will ignore your insults in the knowledge I am likely much better qualified than you.
I just love these self-opinionated, supposedly clever, (but often 'thick') people. They have such low esteem that they should go on those programmes about 'Don't you know who I am'. Now that's what I call a great plan.
I will ignore your insults in the knowledge I am likely much better qualified than you.
As for my opinions. They are guess what opinions. Everybody is entitled to their own opinions. Although mine are much better informed than most
Not sure what a clever thick person is.
psi310398 said:
Mrr T said:
EDITED FOR SPACE
Leaving the EU should have been planned as a multi stage plan.
Interesting arguments but don't they fall down on this last point? This was never on offer, nor likely to be on offer as the EU has absolutely no interest in making the UK's departure easy if done on equitable terms (it should but it doesn't).Leaving the EU should have been planned as a multi stage plan.
Lord Marylebone said:
Good points there.
It seems bizarre to me that people cannot understand that our entire nation has been shaped and developed over the last 46 years by the fact that we are European.
Our businesses, industries and commerce are, in one way or another, to a greater or lesser extent, European.
I was ridiculed by some on here they other day because I suggested that my wife's UK based manufacturing company may suffer after Brexit because all their customers are in mainland Europe.
Some posters suggested that the factory, which has been painstakingly developed over 40 years to be a specialist European producer of one certain material, could simply start producing something else, find new customers, and stop moaning.
It was total pie in the sky drivel.
Like telling someone like McLaren to simply stop moaning and start making Toasters for the Korean market instead of making cars.
People here are living in fantasy land if they think we can simply leave the EU after all these years and things will be possibly OK.
People like myself have known absolutely nothing else apart from being European.
Back in 2016, Sir Ivan Rogers stated that:
"It could take at least 10 years, possibly much longer to properly negotiate our departure from the EU"
"EU-Canada deal, took seven years to negotiate and was about 22 years in the making. But this was a relatively simple trade agreement that does not include the services provisions and deals on non-tariff barriers that a big exporter of professional services such as Britain will almost certainly require".
3 years and counting isn't even scratching the surface of what may be required here.
Some of you people are verging on insane with your gung-ho attitudes to leaving, and also completely in denial over what is actually involved in leaving.
Some of us never expected it to take less time and it is one of the reasons why the WA is obnoxious - if we were still under EU control fifteen years after the referendum had decided that we should leave, that would be a complete travesty. That is what the backstop ensures.It seems bizarre to me that people cannot understand that our entire nation has been shaped and developed over the last 46 years by the fact that we are European.
Our businesses, industries and commerce are, in one way or another, to a greater or lesser extent, European.
I was ridiculed by some on here they other day because I suggested that my wife's UK based manufacturing company may suffer after Brexit because all their customers are in mainland Europe.
Some posters suggested that the factory, which has been painstakingly developed over 40 years to be a specialist European producer of one certain material, could simply start producing something else, find new customers, and stop moaning.
It was total pie in the sky drivel.
Like telling someone like McLaren to simply stop moaning and start making Toasters for the Korean market instead of making cars.
People here are living in fantasy land if they think we can simply leave the EU after all these years and things will be possibly OK.
People like myself have known absolutely nothing else apart from being European.
Back in 2016, Sir Ivan Rogers stated that:
"It could take at least 10 years, possibly much longer to properly negotiate our departure from the EU"
"EU-Canada deal, took seven years to negotiate and was about 22 years in the making. But this was a relatively simple trade agreement that does not include the services provisions and deals on non-tariff barriers that a big exporter of professional services such as Britain will almost certainly require".
3 years and counting isn't even scratching the surface of what may be required here.
Some of you people are verging on insane with your gung-ho attitudes to leaving, and also completely in denial over what is actually involved in leaving.
You neglect to take into account that the Canadians and the EU currently trade and people are not subsisting on tree bark and grass because it took so balls-achingly long to negotiate a simple trade deal. A trade deal is a 'nice to have' not a necessity.
BTW it is Europe that slows the process of negotiating these things down - our Commonwealth cousins seem quite capable of knocking them out in eighteen months...
Mrr T said:
Not sure what a clever thick person is.
Pretty much anybody with a degree in Bob’s worldNot forgetting anybody who is not an alumnus of the SOHN.
And of course all people who work in the City or media and can be tagged “metropolitan”.
Except for those he likes who write for The DM.
Standard stuff
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