How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

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Discussion

Big Al.

Original Poster:

62,377 posts

205 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Stay in Bed Instead

17,554 posts

104 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Unlucky for some?

biggrin

Escapegoat

4,356 posts

82 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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If Boris has dropped hints to the EU that he's prepared to wait until May 2022, perhaps the EU will decide it's got better things to do than constantly deal with Brexit?

This political constipation is good for no-one, here or in the EU.

valiant

4,125 posts

107 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Haven’t we left yet?

dazwalsh

4,569 posts

88 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Never when I started the very first thread did I think it would reach volume 13, just shows what a clusterfk it's been. All my optimism has crumbled and I'm now just collapsed in a heap of brexit fatigue.

Edited by dazwalsh on Tuesday 22 October 11:08

Digga

28,203 posts

230 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Stay in Bed Instead said:
Unlucky for some?

biggrin
Quite. Who's still stuck here then?

DMN

2,677 posts

86 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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To answer the original OP: Very, very badly.

stongle

1,950 posts

109 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Escapegoat said:
If Boris has dropped hints to the EU that he's prepared to wait until May 2022, perhaps the EU will decide it's got better things to do than constantly deal with Brexit?

This political constipation is good for no-one, here or in the EU.
Yep. It's killing inward investment - globally business invest spending growth has slumped from 4.4% to 1.5%; UK hit particularly hard.

We do however have a GBP600bn construction pipeline ready; and 23bn immediately available for digital infratsructure spend. As long as we get BREXIT process started (first step pass WA).

Both sides are super motivated to do a deal on a FTA; the odds of NOT getting one are vanishingly small. They probably want one more than us, given the structural problems they face.

Norway+ is where we should land, payments in are buttons (in comparison to the benefits); or a premium to avoid the downside risks (Trump and getting rodded at the WTO thanks to the French). Our economy is nothing like the Eurozone; it responds to different inputs; and doesnt have the divergent issues the EU faces. Anyone whom think's it's an economic nirvana, is conkers. Immigration also required - given slowing birth rate / aging population - the extreme racist edge argument is tiny and driven by lazy--itus (no-ones nicking jobs get off you fat arses and benfits, do them yourselves).

As for the remainer position / revisionist / denier, last Saturdays march may as well been:



The whole world is waiting for commonsense to break out.

HorneyMX5

4,560 posts

97 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Will we get to volume 20?

jonmiles

107 posts

3 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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dazwalsh said:
Never when I started the very first thread did I think it would reach volume 13, just shows what a clusterfk it's been. All my optimism has crumbled and I'm now just collapsed in a heap of brexit fatigue.
Hoist by your own petard?

jsf

14,431 posts

183 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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"The arse-about-facedness being a result of their voting for Letwin, n'est-ce pas? So entirely self-inflicted."

Of course.

We have a Parliament and government structure currently where the Government cant control the process, so normal treaty making convention where the ministers agree the treaties then the majority in Parliament goes through the motions of making the law to match the treaty, has completely broken down.

I'll be very surprised if this WA bill doesn't get amended in a way that makes the WA treaty invalid, so cant be signed off by government.

If that happens, the only way out is a GE. That may not be granted until the end of the FTPA in 2022.

It needs the EU to now grow some balls and refuse an extension, if they too want this over with. If they still want to keep the UK in, then they will extend for months.

Digga

28,203 posts

230 months

Tuesday 22nd October
quotequote all
stongle said:
We do however have a GBP600bn construction pipeline ready; and 23bn immediately available for digital infratsructure spend. As long as we get BREXIT process started (first step pass WA)...
Which might have to be undertaken with machinery and skills of continental European contractors if they don't hurry up. A lot of construction is on its arse. It was bad enough post-Carillion.

ClaphamGT3

7,852 posts

190 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Digga said:
stongle said:
We do however have a GBP600bn construction pipeline ready; and 23bn immediately available for digital infratsructure spend. As long as we get BREXIT process started (first step pass WA)...
Which might have to be undertaken with machinery and skills of continental European contractors if they don't hurry up. A lot of construction is on its arse. It was bad enough post-Carillion.
That is the position that we are in already. The domestic contracting market has neither the skill nor the balance sheet strength to deliver major programmes. It's also worth noting caution around the "£600m construction pipeline" sound bite; that pipeline isn't in shovel ready programmes and it isn't funded. It will take some time to see that pipeline crystalise and then only when overseas contractors invest in the programmes. The big beneficiaries of stimulation of the NIC's pipeline will be the likes of Ferrovial, Dragados, Flour etc

Earthdweller

3,230 posts

73 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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HorneyMX5 said:
Will we get to volume 20?
Will any of us still be alive to see the end of this thread ?

laugh


(Only half in jest )

smilesmile

Earthdweller

3,230 posts

73 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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jsf said:
"The arse-about-facedness being a result of their voting for Letwin, n'est-ce pas? So entirely self-inflicted."

Of course.

We have a Parliament and government structure currently where the Government cant control the process, so normal treaty making convention where the ministers agree the treaties then the majority in Parliament goes through the motions of making the law to match the treaty, has completely broken down.

I'll be very surprised if this WA bill doesn't get amended in a way that makes the WA treaty invalid, so cant be signed off by government.

If that happens, the only way out is a GE. That may not be granted until the end of the FTPA in 2022.

It needs the EU to now grow some balls and refuse an extension, if they too want this over with. If they still want to keep the UK in, then they will extend for months.
Seriously, we cannot carry on for another 3 years with a Government that cannot govern and an opposition that will oppose everything just because .. or the opposition in effect being the ones running the show

A sad sad end to our democratic system

We need a G.E. ... NOW

Murph7355

23,375 posts

203 months

Tuesday 22nd October
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Elysium said:
Tuna said:

I'd be fascinated to see what a second Referendum returned, but cannot think of one reason that justifies ignoring all of the big problems there are with holding one at this stage.

You have said many times that a second referendum will cause big problems, but you never explain that view.

What 'big problems' will be caused by a confirmatory vote between Johnsons deal and remain, assuming it is held after enabling legislation has been passed so a vote for the deal can be enacted immediately?

It's a simple question:

You voted for Brexit, this is the best we can offer, so do you still want it?
You've had it explained many times and not answered yourself!

What result do you expect from said second referendum.

The only indicators out there are that nothing material has shifted. So

- marginal win by Leave. Does that fix anything? Nope. Most of the same loud voices will still be moaning. "Ignore them"? Not allowed. Been tried already smile

- marginal Remain win. Does that fix anything? Why the hell should it. How many times do we need to vote for it to be accepted? Logically it makes no sense to simply say "but this time it counts". Ahhhhh, but we know more now... No we don't.

We know our MPs are useless can kickers. Another EU malaise. But that's not really "news". Anything else is just repeating the same arguments that you either believe or you do not, for logical reasons or not. Nothing new is available.

Then you have the thorny question of turnout. If it's less than last time (I would suggest likely with the disillusionment with our political class... And I'd venture this will hit the Leave vote hardest as they already won one vote. Why bother with another if the original is ignored?) then what?

There is no logic in a second vote. Leaving won't be any easier if Leave wins again. Pull the tooth. And if Remain wins, unless by a landslide on a bigger turnout (highly unlikely) the division and distrust in our system get torn deeper.

It is not a solution.

A GE isn't really either tbh as it's possible revoke or hardest hard on Brexit could feasibly get a majority with an even smaller number of votes... But at least a majority would see a govt able to function.

Though, of course, we are far more likely to have a hung Parliament IMO. So even that may solve nothing. (Unless MPs keep fecking about in which case I could readily see a Tory/TBP victory.)

If govt commits to a vote and commits to implement it, along with the majority of Parliament committing to do the same, they should fking well do it. This is mainly down to the Tories AND Labour.

They should then focus on winning the next GE if they can and changing things that way instead of all the theatrics and nonsense we've been subjected to.

(The real solution is to have a better thought out Art50 of course. And for the 2yrs to be non-negotiable. Agree a WA or leave without one. Everyone knows up front, minds focused. Hopefully the EU will spend plenty of time on this as and when we leave - we will one day. Their approach will likely to be to scratch it completely smile ).

Stay in Bed Instead

17,554 posts

104 months

Tuesday 22nd October
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
Seriously, we cannot carry on for another 3 years with a Government that cannot govern and an opposition that will oppose everything just because .. or the opposition in effect being the ones running the show

A sad sad end to our democratic system

We need a G.E. ... NOW
Apparently, if the Government can't get through the 2020 Finance Act, we will not have to pay income tax next year.

tongue out

Murph7355

23,375 posts

203 months

Tuesday 22nd October
quotequote all
HorneyMX5 said:
Will we get to volume 20?
100%.

We'll get to vol50.

ELUSIVEJIM

7,508 posts

98 months

Tuesday 22nd October
quotequote all
Volume 13 and Germany's luck has ran out.

Germany is in a recession.

Germany has tumbled into recession as global trade tensions, disruption to the car industry and worries over Brexit take their toll, according to the country's central bank.

Digga

28,203 posts

230 months

Tuesday 22nd October
quotequote all
ClaphamGT3 said:
Digga said:
stongle said:
We do however have a GBP600bn construction pipeline ready; and 23bn immediately available for digital infratsructure spend. As long as we get BREXIT process started (first step pass WA)...
Which might have to be undertaken with machinery and skills of continental European contractors if they don't hurry up. A lot of construction is on its arse. It was bad enough post-Carillion.
That is the position that we are in already. The domestic contracting market has neither the skill nor the balance sheet strength to deliver major programmes. It's also worth noting caution around the "£600m construction pipeline" sound bite; that pipeline isn't in shovel ready programmes and it isn't funded. It will take some time to see that pipeline crystalise and then only when overseas contractors invest in the programmes. The big beneficiaries of stimulation of the NIC's pipeline will be the likes of Ferrovial, Dragados, Flour etc
I'm just talking about the mechanical bits, but I am sure you're right.

If you used the M6 any time in the last 56 years, you may have noticed the 'Hawk' excavators that were running on the smart motorway work between Stoke and Manchester. Apparently, two things finished this firm:
  1. Carillion fiasco and resultant delays in payments and subsequent contracts
  2. Delays to the satart of HS2.
The above may well have been nails in the coffin of a poorly/riskily run firm, but they were nonetheless significant.

In the case of HS2, it was warned, years back, that the UK did not have the requisite number of ADTS (these are the big, 6x6, off road dump trucks) needed to shift the earthworks. There were going to have to be several hundred more. That's a big gamble and Hawk were one of the firms who made it...

Here's one for sale, used at £200k +VAT, so you get the idea of the investment involved: https://www.mascus.co.uk/construction/used-articul...

Very capital intensive and difficult to gear up for. You can't just pop down to Arnold Clarks to pick a few up. You can't buy used from RoW because they need to be EU spec...