PH Psephologists

[JuanCarlosFandango]

steveatesh said:

Living in the constituency I’m following the result with interest, although expect a labour hold with a large majority still. Had it just been Tory vs Labour I think there could be a big shock based on the local feeling ps being expressed on social media and the swing away from the long held labour council last local elections (they lost 10 seats IIRC) .

I personally voted tactically, the Tory candidate lives in London and probably doesn’t even know where this place is. Not a good start so I’ve guessed the best chance of a change of local MP here would be the Brexit party.

My own personal opinion is that because it is a 3 horse race here the leave vote will split and let Labour in with a large majority.

So it won’t quite be the bell weather result you could otherwise see.

And you were dead right. If all BP voters had voted Tory they would have won it. Which would have been possibly more surprising than Blyth.

[hidetheelephants]

Derek Smith said:

My son, who's been more or less accurate for the last few elections (don't ask about the referendum) reckons it will be a slim tory majority, into double figures probably. He works with political correspondents. That said, his certainty is that there's no predicting it.

Ruth Davidson was the architect of the bewildering gain in tory seats in Scotland. She's only just gone, but will be missed. It's not only a loss to the tories, but to Scotland as well. A sensible voice. Stick her as pm and the tories would walk it. They won't lose all the seats. Most of the 13 are marginals but the main alternative is SNP. The libdems and labour both increased their seats in the last election so might gain some. It's very tight. It might also be critical.

It's exciting, isn't it.

Much as I like her Ruth would be leading the tories to defeat or at least a hung parliament; she's a staunch remainer, which probably a major reason she resigned, and the polls seem pretty clear that remain is a losing policy. You will presumably be pleased to finally be free of Fatty Soames?