How many have been vaccinated so far?

How many have been vaccinated so far?

Author
Discussion

Terminator X

10,745 posts

168 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all
Leicester Loyal said:
It's slowed right down recently, I thought it was meant to pick up this week? Hopefully it will by Friday.
Does it NEED to continue at the same pace once the old and/or vulnerable are dealt with which should be the case by now given 20m vaccinated?

TX.

Vasco

10,420 posts

69 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all
Terminator X said:
Leicester Loyal said:
It's slowed right down recently, I thought it was meant to pick up this week? Hopefully it will by Friday.
Does it NEED to continue at the same pace once the old and/or vulnerable are dealt with which should be the case by now given 20m vaccinated?

TX.
Most of them still need the 2nd jab.

BoRED S2upid

16,502 posts

204 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all
Terminator X said:
Does it NEED to continue at the same pace once the old and/or vulnerable are dealt with which should be the case by now given 20m vaccinated?

TX.
Yes to allow us to fully reopen the economy.

HappyMidget

5,883 posts

79 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all

2nd doses are going well, pretty standard monday numbers, looking forward to a large uplift later in the week hopefully.

MG CHRIS

7,726 posts

131 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all
Been looking at the figures for Wales and it looks like a change of direction on concentrating on 2nd doses seem to be 50%of the total vaccine per day being the 2nd dose see if that trend continues this week.

spikeyhead

12,388 posts

161 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all
Terminator X said:
Leicester Loyal said:
It's slowed right down recently, I thought it was meant to pick up this week? Hopefully it will by Friday.
Does it NEED to continue at the same pace once the old and/or vulnerable are dealt with which should be the case by now given 20m vaccinated?

TX.
From my crude modelling, if we don't vaccinate any under 55s and remove all restrictions, then we'll end up with more people in hospital that at the peak. We might, just might avoid that if the seasonal reduction kicks in, but that's dependent on good weather. The quicker we jab, the quicker I can get back to crowded gigs in small venues, trying to pretend I'm not 55 whilst in a mosh pit.

Flooble

2,905 posts

64 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all
Interested to see your model. Last year infections fell off a cliff while things were semi-open; this summer I'd expected the unvaccinated to still apply a modicum of caution commensurate with the risk to them (e.g. if you're a fat blob maybe go easy on snogging random strangers!).

In any event, the ONS has figures that the 15-44 age range is 30 times less likely to be admitted to hospital:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

25.5 Million in the 15-44 bracket, so to hit 40000 in hospital would need 0.15% to be admitted.

Amusingly there's 26.5 million over 45, so the 40000 admitted at peak was also 0.15%

It's also worth noting that 15-44 year olds would have been more likely to be exposed to the virus as they are the age range most likely to have to still be working (and exposed through their children etc.)

So to see the same peak admission numbers, my simplistic assumption would be that dropping lockdown would have to increase transmission by at least 30x, which seems highly unrealistic when the unmitigated "R0" has been estimated at around 2.6 (nowhere near 30). And that R0 assumes no prior immunity, which if infection rate calculations are accurate is also unrealistic.


dickymint

19,299 posts

222 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all
One death reported in Wales today.

Muddle238

2,428 posts

77 months

Tuesday 2nd March
quotequote all
Flooble said:
Interested to see your model. Last year infections fell off a cliff while things were semi-open; this summer I'd expected the unvaccinated to still apply a modicum of caution commensurate with the risk to them (e.g. if you're a fat blob maybe go easy on snogging random strangers!).

In any event, the ONS has figures that the 15-44 age range is 30 times less likely to be admitted to hospital:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

25.5 Million in the 15-44 bracket, so to hit 40000 in hospital would need 0.15% to be admitted.

Amusingly there's 26.5 million over 45, so the 40000 admitted at peak was also 0.15%

It's also worth noting that 15-44 year olds would have been more likely to be exposed to the virus as they are the age range most likely to have to still be working (and exposed through their children etc.)

So to see the same peak admission numbers, my simplistic assumption would be that dropping lockdown would have to increase transmission by at least 30x, which seems highly unrealistic when the unmitigated "R0" has been estimated at around 2.6 (nowhere near 30). And that R0 assumes no prior immunity, which if infection rate calculations are accurate is also unrealistic.
I like your maths. How accurate I couldn’t say, but any glimmer of hope that suggests things are improving is welcome in my book.


spikeyhead

12,388 posts

161 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
Flooble said:
Interested to see your model. Last year infections fell off a cliff while things were semi-open; this summer I'd expected the unvaccinated to still apply a modicum of caution commensurate with the risk to them (e.g. if you're a fat blob maybe go easy on snogging random strangers!).

In any event, the ONS has figures that the 15-44 age range is 30 times less likely to be admitted to hospital:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

25.5 Million in the 15-44 bracket, so to hit 40000 in hospital would need 0.15% to be admitted.

Amusingly there's 26.5 million over 45, so the 40000 admitted at peak was also 0.15%

It's also worth noting that 15-44 year olds would have been more likely to be exposed to the virus as they are the age range most likely to have to still be working (and exposed through their children etc.)

So to see the same peak admission numbers, my simplistic assumption would be that dropping lockdown would have to increase transmission by at least 30x, which seems highly unrealistic when the unmitigated "R0" has been estimated at around 2.6 (nowhere near 30). And that R0 assumes no prior immunity, which if infection rate calculations are accurate is also unrealistic.
and now repeat your sums for the under 55's as I had stated, not the under 45s

Truckosaurus

8,229 posts

248 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
Flooble said:
...(e.g. if you're a fat blob maybe go easy on snogging random strangers!)....
Well, bang goes my plans for summer then frown

Flooble

2,905 posts

64 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
spikeyhead said:
and now repeat your sums for the under 55's as I had stated, not the under 45s
Perhaps you would care to post your model?

isaldiri

11,556 posts

132 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
Flooble said:
spikeyhead said:
and now repeat your sums for the under 55's as I had stated, not the under 45s
Perhaps you would care to post your model?
To be fair, it's probably not entirely as stupid a suggestion as one might have initially thought. Hospitalisation rate of ~1% for the 18-55 group, about 30m people in that group. If one runs a very crude model making no allowance for existing infection and the blind assumption transmission goes back to the natural R0 without any slackening due to summer (that everyone in the northern hemisphere showed last year) it is possible to get to infection rates that mean similar numbers of people are in hospital.

However that simply shows under those assumptions it's possible. Actual data suggests it's rather quite unlikely......

MiniMan64

13,799 posts

154 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
dickymint said:
One death reported in Wales today.
Total UK numbers? They must be getting low as I can't find them reported anywhere!

Boringvolvodriver

2,429 posts

7 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
To be fair, it's probably not entirely as stupid a suggestion as one might have initially thought. Hospitalisation rate of ~1% for the 18-55 group, about 30m people in that group. If one runs a very crude model making no allowance for existing infection and the blind assumption transmission goes back to the natural R0 without any slackening due to summer (that everyone in the northern hemisphere showed last year) it is possible to get to infection rates that mean similar numbers of people are in hospital.

However that simply shows under those assumptions it's possible. Actual data suggests it's rather quite unlikely......
As always a well balanced post - thank you. My initial thought was that given the ages of those being hospitalized, then to get those levels with the under 55s would not be possible.

As a side note, I received my invitation for the vaccine yesterday and in the accompanying NHS leaflet it clearly states that “you should have the Covid 19 Vaccine if you are

An adult living or working in a care home for the elderly
A frontline health care or social care worker
A carer in domiciliary care looking after older adults
Aged 65 or older
Younger adults with long term clinical conditions - see next page with a list”

Given that I do not fit any of the above criteria, why should I have the vaccine and why do the NHS think that I should when the guidance says otherwise?

Maybe they think that most people won’t read the accompanying leaflet?

Lord Marylebone

12,619 posts

144 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
MiniMan64 said:
dickymint said:
One death reported in Wales today.
Total UK numbers? They must be getting low as I can't find them reported anywhere!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

We seem to be fluctuating at around 100-300 deaths per day for the UK.

MiniMan64

13,799 posts

154 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
Lord Marylebone said:
MiniMan64 said:
dickymint said:
One death reported in Wales today.
Total UK numbers? They must be getting low as I can't find them reported anywhere!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

We seem to be fluctuating at around 100-300 deaths per day for the UK.
Hmmm.

Definitely time to get moving again.

bad company

14,055 posts

230 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
Lord Marylebone said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/...

We seem to be fluctuating at around 100-300 deaths per day for the UK.
Really?


otolith

43,934 posts

168 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
bad company said:
Really?

Someone doesn't understand how death certificates work.

Alucidnation

15,881 posts

134 months

Wednesday 3rd March
quotequote all
Boringvolvodriver said:
As always a well balanced post - thank you. My initial thought was that given the ages of those being hospitalized, then to get those levels with the under 55s would not be possible.

As a side note, I received my invitation for the vaccine yesterday and in the accompanying NHS leaflet it clearly states that “you should have the Covid 19 Vaccine if you are

An adult living or working in a care home for the elderly
A frontline health care or social care worker
A carer in domiciliary care looking after older adults
Aged 65 or older
Younger adults with long term clinical conditions - see next page with a list”

Given that I do not fit any of the above criteria, why should I have the vaccine and why do the NHS think that I should when the guidance says otherwise?

Maybe they think that most people won’t read the accompanying leaflet?
Don’t do it!!

I noticed this morning I now have extra fingers and toes starting to grow!!