Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

Author
Discussion

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,720 posts

155 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
A number of people have suggested we should have a separate thread for analysis of the data around the pandemic. The idea being that this should be factual and free from arguments, conspiracy theories and mask wars.

I can't see it lasting, but I am willing to give it a go.

To kick us off. Two charts to put 2020 all cause deaths into perspective:

1. A heat map of ONS all cause deaths for 2010-2019, adjusted for ONS population estimates with 2019 as the benchmark. The 2020 is actual:



2. The same data presented as a graph



The Spring outbreak is clearly much more significant than the autumn one.



Edited by Elysium on Sunday 20th December 14:53

steveT350C

6,102 posts

129 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Good call

eta:

Quoting Spruce Goose from the cure thread,

“ Heart disease, cancer, etc. Deaths are surprisingly down this year. Cv19 deaths are up, people that die at home are up.

The average age of cv19 deaths is 82, 1 year younger than normal average death age.

Hospitals are overwhelmed, but surprisingly no different to last 20 years.”


Having the above’s data, and indeed all relevant data, packaged and presented in an easily shared and understood format has to be done.

I’ll build a PowerPoint presentation based on what gets posted here.

Edited by steveT350C on Sunday 20th December 15:01

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,720 posts

155 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
This graph divides all cause deaths into those 'due to' COVID and those where COVID is not noted as a cause of death.

Data is from ONS and population adjusted to the 2019 population. The dotted lines are the 5 year minimum, average and maximum and the green line is the point at which 2020 becomes 'statistically significant', which is 2 x standard deviations from the average:



This shows statistically significant non-COVID excess deaths in the spring outbreak, but in the Autumn non-COVID deaths are below the 5 year minimum.

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,720 posts

155 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
I also wanted to share this simple graph, which shows COVID deaths and Excess deaths (variance from the 5 year average) throughout 2020:



Spring excess deaths are approximately 5 times higher than Autumn, which I think provides some context for the relative scale of each 'wave'.

Edited by Elysium on Sunday 20th December 15:05

smartypants

50,072 posts

137 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Good thread. Just a simple rule needed, post your graphs and tables but it needs backing up with links to sources.

None of this 70% more virulent mutant ninja virus bks please smile


BlackLabel

13,251 posts

91 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
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This is a useful resource.

https://data.spectator.co.uk/

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,720 posts

155 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
This graph shows the 7 day average of cases for London and Wales. I have identified the time periods where the Welsh Firebreak and English Lockdown could have had an impact on transmission.

Data here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Both show a dip during tighter restrictions with a rapid rebound. London has rebounded harder, but was growing faster prior to restrictions. The dip at the end is reporting lag:



Edited by Elysium on Sunday 20th December 15:28

bigandclever

11,467 posts

206 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
steveT350C said:
Quoting Spruce Goose from the cure thread,

The average age of cv19 deaths is 82, 1 year younger than normal average death age.
I know we said ‘no arguments’, but the average Covid death age is 82.4; the average non-Covid death age is 81.5.

So average covid-death age is older, not younger.

Otispunkmeyer

11,227 posts

123 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Excellent idea Elysium. I too don't think it will last before it is hijacked, but let's at least have a go and keep it objective and dispassionate. Once emotions get into the mix then all bets are off because it doesn't matter what the data says then.

Let's look at this like scientists (as many of us actually are)

TCX

1,030 posts

23 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Elysium said:
This graph shows the 7 day average of cases for London and Wales. I have identified the time periods where the Welsh Firebreak and English Lockdown could have had an impact on transmission.

Data here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Both show a dip during tighter restrictions with a rapid rebound. London has rebounded harder, but was growing faster prior to restrictions. The dip at the end is reporting lag:



Edited by Elysium on Sunday 20th December 15:28
Plenty of people travelled to London mid week for work from South Wales,Merthyr,Swansea during so called Welsh firebreak,two proved positive on hs2 job,hushed up

Otispunkmeyer

11,227 posts

123 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Elysium said:
This graph shows the 7 day average of cases for London and Wales. I have identified the time periods where the Welsh Firebreak and English Lockdown could have had an impact on transmission.

Data here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Both show a dip during tighter restrictions with a rapid rebound. London has rebounded harder, but was growing faster prior to restrictions. The dip at the end is reporting lag:



Edited by Elysium on Sunday 20th December 15:28
Like I replied in the other thread. Looks like lockdown does have an effect. It is just short lived and doesn't effect the eventual outcome given what looks like a quick "reversion to the mean" once the restrictions stop.

So perhaps there is a use for them. But the expectations should be that it's not going to make the virus go away. It will come straight back again the moment you emerge. Obviously we cannot lockdown ad infinitum, but perhaps they can be used to buy some time for the services.

But then we are not seeing anything like as bad as it was in spring, so are they actually being genuinely useful?

LimJim

2,274 posts

10 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
What question is the thread trying to answer exactly?

the same data can support opposing hypotheses depending on how question is posed?

smartypants

50,072 posts

137 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Just data. No hypothesis.


Elysium

Original Poster:

10,720 posts

155 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
This graph helps illustrate the potential hidden scale of the pandemic.

Cases, admissions and deaths from here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The infection curve is calculated from daily deaths assuming a constant IFR of 0.6% and a time from infection to death of 21 days:



I believe this shows the vast scale of infections that was probable in the spring, but that we were completely unable to detect. And also that, despite massive increases in testing and case numbers we may still be missing a great many cases in the autumn.

Admissions and are deaths barely visible at this scale.

Edited by Elysium on Monday 21st December 23:09

LimJim

2,274 posts

10 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all

oyster

10,469 posts

216 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Elysium said:
This graph helps illustrate the hidden scale of the pandemic.

Cases, admissions and deaths from here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The infection curve is calculated from daily deaths assuming a constant IFR of 0.6% and a time from infection to death of 21 days:



This shows the vast scale of infections that was likely in the spring, but that we were completely unable to detect. It also shows that, despite massive increases in testing and case numbers we must still be missing a great many cases in the autumn.

Admissions and are deaths barely visible at this scale.
What’s the sum total of the area under the infections graph?
We know the sum under the cases graph is circa 2m.

Extrapolated out, that graph suggests herd immunity isn’t so far away.

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,720 posts

155 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
oyster said:
Elysium said:
This graph helps illustrate the hidden scale of the pandemic.

Cases, admissions and deaths from here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The infection curve is calculated from daily deaths assuming a constant IFR of 0.6% and a time from infection to death of 21 days:



This shows the vast scale of infections that was likely in the spring, but that we were completely unable to detect. It also shows that, despite massive increases in testing and case numbers we must still be missing a great many cases in the autumn.

Admissions and are deaths barely visible at this scale.
What’s the sum total of the area under the infections graph?
We know the sum under the cases graph is circa 2m.

Extrapolated out, that graph suggests herd immunity isn’t so far away.
The Govt site currently reports 67,401 deaths

So the area under the curve will be 67,401/.006 = 11.23 million, which is 19% of the 2019 England and Wales population.


Ultra Sound Guy

28,031 posts

162 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
I’ve been following the CSSE website since early days as it seems to be pretty accurate.
This ‘glitch ’ intrigued me though!

Worldwide daily cases.



Turkey daily cases.



That was a hell of a day!

johnboy1975

3,754 posts

76 months

Sunday 20th December 2020
quotequote all
Elysium said:
oyster said:
Elysium said:
This graph helps illustrate the hidden scale of the pandemic.

Cases, admissions and deaths from here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

The infection curve is calculated from daily deaths assuming a constant IFR of 0.6% and a time from infection to death of 21 days:



This shows the vast scale of infections that was likely in the spring, but that we were completely unable to detect. It also shows that, despite massive increases in testing and case numbers we must still be missing a great many cases in the autumn.

Admissions and are deaths barely visible at this scale.
What’s the sum total of the area under the infections graph?
We know the sum under the cases graph is circa 2m.

Extrapolated out, that graph suggests herd immunity isn’t so far away.
The Govt site currently reports 67,401 deaths

So the area under the curve will be 67,401/.006 = 11.23 million, which is 19% of the 2019 England and Wales population.

What happens if we halve the IFR to 0.3? Does it make the number of infections implausible at 38%?

(CDC estimate of IFR 0.24, cant see there's being lower than ours, but who knows?

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,720 posts

155 months

Monday 21st December 2020
quotequote all
Some other interesting data sites:

1. A COVID 'tier' visualiser, which is now somewhat overtaken by events.

https://coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/...

2. This website lets you display a number of data sets by area:

https://victimofmaths.shinyapps.io/COVID_LA_Plots/

3. Swedens live numbers:

https://c19.se/

4. A great site to compare latest info by country:

https://datagraver.com/corona/#/