Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

Coronavirus - Data Analysis Thread

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Elysium

Original Poster:

10,714 posts

154 months

Thursday 17th June
quotequote all
Cases increased again today, but the growth rate is continuing to slow. This is for the whole of the UK and the last entry point is 12th June:



This is my attempt to recreate this graph, which picks up some later data points:



The trend suggests we are heading towards a peak, but I am hearing that there are cases in Universities again, which I think could see this bounce back.

Crafty_

12,987 posts

167 months

Thursday 17th June
quotequote all
the-photographer said:
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey technical article: analysis of positivity after vaccination, June 2021

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

As I understand it a lot of under 30s are being given the pfizer one ?

I would not be surprised if the government use these stats to enforce all current restrictions until all over 18s have had a second jab. "People with one dose of Pfizer vaccine nearly three times more likely to get covid than the AZ vaccine"

..slightly tongue in cheek, but.. with this lot you never know...

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,714 posts

154 months

Thursday 17th June
quotequote all
Crafty_ said:
the-photographer said:
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey technical article: analysis of positivity after vaccination, June 2021

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

As I understand it a lot of under 30s are being given the pfizer one ?

I would not be surprised if the government use these stats to enforce all current restrictions until all over 18s have had a second jab. "People with one dose of Pfizer vaccine nearly three times more likely to get covid than the AZ vaccine"

..slightly tongue in cheek, but.. with this lot you never know...
Younger people who have taken the Pfizer vaccine are likely to have higher numbers of contacts that older people who had AZ.

That could easily skew these numbers.

the-photographer

1,984 posts

143 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
1st August peak was in the news yesterday

https://www.channel4.com/news/hospitals-told-to-br...

An internal NHS email seen by Channel 4 News shows how hospitals are being told to prepare for a third Covid-19 wave at the same time as a spike in serious infections among very young children.

It goes on: “We are following national guidance on planning, which is to plan for 50 per cent of the first wave, with fewer patients needing (intensive care) and admitted patients being younger and less sick. This is the pattern we’re currently seeing across the trust.

the-photographer

1,984 posts

143 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
Copy paste...

A total of 806 people in England have been admitted to hospital with the Delta variant of Covid-19 as of 14 June, new figures show.

This is a rise of 423 on the previous week, according to the data from Public Health England.

Of the 806 hospitalisations:

527 (65%) people were unvaccinated
135 (17%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
84 (10%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test.

Of the 73 deaths:

34 (47%) were unvaccinated
10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.

Muncher

12,090 posts

216 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
Tim Spector of the Zoe Symptom Study app is predicting the peak of infections in 10-14 days time with a fall to below the level we are at now in 4 weeks.

https://youtu.be/l5v0ic-um7A

Isaac Hunt

12,866 posts

178 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
Muncher said:
Tim Spector of the Zoe Symptom Study app is predicting the peak of infections in 10-14 days time with a fall to below the level we are at now in 4 weeks.

https://youtu.be/l5v0ic-um7A
Any predictions as to where the next variant will originate from?

the-photographer

1,984 posts

143 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England Technical briefing 16

If you love graphs, all 60 pages, then look at

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,714 posts

154 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
Muncher said:
Tim Spector of the Zoe Symptom Study app is predicting the peak of infections in 10-14 days time with a fall to below the level we are at now in 4 weeks.

https://youtu.be/l5v0ic-um7A
Sounds about right. If the current slow down in the growth rate continues cases could peak next week.

spikeyhead

12,828 posts

164 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
Elysium said:
Muncher said:
Tim Spector of the Zoe Symptom Study app is predicting the peak of infections in 10-14 days time with a fall to below the level we are at now in 4 weeks.

https://youtu.be/l5v0ic-um7A
Sounds about right. If the current slow down in the growth rate continues cases could peak next week.
It's what I posted a couple of days ago, are they copying from us?

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,714 posts

154 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
Update on todays numbers:

1. Cases and Admissions

Cases per 100k tests continue to rise, but deaths are staying low. As a result the Case Fatality Rate continues to fall. In fact cases now are resulting in around 20 times less deaths than they were at the peak.



Similarly, admissions are starting to slowly increase, but the Case Admission Rate is continuing to fall. In February 10% of cases resulted in an admission, now it is a little over 3%



2. You can see this effect more clearly in this graph, which shows cases, admissions and deaths overlaid with a lag and a secondary Y axis to allow the curves to be compared. The increase in cases that began around 1 month ago is still not driving a comparable increase in admissions or deaths



3. Finally a couple of graphs showing the rate of growth in cases and admissions over a 7 day period. This timescale works well because it smooths our reporting delays. Case growth is clearly slowing. It looks as if admission growth may also be slowing, but the data here is very laggy and this may change in the coming weeks.





Edited by Elysium on Friday 18th June 17:37

Crafty_

12,987 posts

167 months

Friday 18th June
quotequote all
I didn't take too much notice but I walked past the newspaper stand at the supermarket earlier, the headline on one was "We could be free 5th July", presumably based on a peak in the next couple of weeks, rather than any logic the government might use..

Muncher

12,090 posts

216 months

Tuesday 22nd June
quotequote all
Muncher said:


Here is a chart of antibody prevalence of adults in the community as per the ONS surveys. The last data collected was as at 17 May, I have added the last point on the graph as at today's date based upon the trendline.
Not a bad guess, new figures are out now:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

Updated chart, prevalence of antibodies for over 16s in the UK, as of today should be around 91.5%.



If we continue on the same trend we will reach 100% antibody prevalence in the last week of July.


RSTurboPaul

7,024 posts

225 months

Tuesday 22nd June
quotequote all
Muncher said:
Muncher said:


Here is a chart of antibody prevalence of adults in the community as per the ONS surveys. The last data collected was as at 17 May, I have added the last point on the graph as at today's date based upon the trendline.
Not a bad guess, new figures are out now:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...

Updated chart, prevalence of antibodies for over 16s in the UK, as of today should be around 91.5%.



If we continue on the same trend we will reach 100% antibody prevalence in the last week of July.
Can someone please explain why the .... we are facing four more weeks restrictions and then Vaccine Passports and 'winter lockdowns' to prevent flu??

Without using the words 'variants' or 'refuseniks' or 'failed vaccinations', preferably.

b0rk

1,535 posts

113 months

Tuesday 22nd June
quotequote all
RSTurboPaul said:
Can someone please explain why the .... we are facing four more weeks restrictions and then Vaccine Passports and 'winter lockdowns' to prevent flu??

Without using the words 'variants' or 'refuseniks' or 'failed vaccinations', preferably.
Irrational fear of the unknown.

spikeyhead

12,828 posts

164 months

Tuesday 22nd June
quotequote all
RSTurboPaul said:
Can someone please explain why the .... we are facing four more weeks restrictions and then Vaccine Passports and 'winter lockdowns' to prevent flu??

Without using the words 'variants' or 'refuseniks' or 'failed vaccinations', preferably.
Hospitalizations, occupancy and ICU occupancy are all still rising. They'll start dropping slowly at the weekend(ish) but had we opened everything yesterday they'd all have continued to rise.

What I've written above is simple fact, even though the numbers are low they are growing.

Why didn't we open up yesterday? It's a political decision to keep nurses happier than nightclub owners.

havoc

26,105 posts

202 months

Tuesday 22nd June
quotequote all
spikeyhead said:
Hospitalizations, occupancy and ICU occupancy are all still rising. They'll start dropping slowly at the weekend(ish) but had we opened everything yesterday they'd all have continued to rise.

What I've written above is simple fact, even though the numbers are low they are growing.
So two questions spring to mind:-
- What are the levels and the rate of growth?
- If 75-80% of adults are now vaccinated, who is going into hospital? Unvaccinated 20-somethings, or vaccinated elderly?

...because those answers will make a BIG difference to whether it's an excess of caution or is more of a "we know something the public don't".



Oh, and one further question - the Euro 2020 match is allowed to go ahead with 60,000 people in close proximity, but far smaller events aren't...are the government a bunch of hypocritical muppets pandering to popular opinion or what?

Elysium

Original Poster:

10,714 posts

154 months

Tuesday 22nd June
quotequote all
Bit of an update:

1. Cases per 100k tests are starting to level off. Deaths have not risen anywhere near as quickly as cases, even allowing for a 2 week lag. As a result, the Case Fatality Rate is low. Holding at an average of 0.19% for the first week of June:



2. Similarly, although there is a rise in admissions, it is much slower than cases, even allowing for a 1 week lag. The Case Admissions Rate is now just over 2%.



3. This shows cases, admissions and deaths overlaid. It's clear that the relationship between these metrics has changed and cases are leading to less serious outcomes



4. This shows the growth rate in the 7 day rolling total of cases and admissions. Case growth began to slow on the 7th June, but the slowdown has stalled in recent days. I think its a bit early to say the same about admissions as the data is quite laggy.







spikeyhead

12,828 posts

164 months

Tuesday 22nd June
quotequote all
havoc said:
So two questions spring to mind:-
- What are the levels and the rate of growth?
- If 75-80% of adults are now vaccinated, who is going into hospital? Unvaccinated 20-somethings, or vaccinated elderly?

...because those answers will make a BIG difference to whether it's an excess of caution or is more of a "we know something the public don't".



Oh, and one further question - the Euro 2020 match is allowed to go ahead with 60,000 people in close proximity, but far smaller events aren't...are the government a bunch of hypocritical muppets pandering to popular opinion or what?
Most people going into hospital either haven't been jabbed, or have had their first jab within the last three weeks so it's not really taken effect, which is why I and others are confident that cases will start to fall in a week or so. I seem to remember seeing that more 20-30 year olds are being admitted than 50 to 60 year olds, or indeed any other age group. Rates of growth are already slowing, but would have gone up quicker if all restrictions had been removed as planned on the 21st.

As I said before, it's a political move to keep nurses happier than nightclub owners. Politically I'm sure it's arguable either way about what is the best way forwards, but in another four weeks then the pendulum of what's right in all viewpoints is firmly at the "open everything up now" end f its swing.

havoc

26,105 posts

202 months

Tuesday 22nd June
quotequote all
spikeyhead said:
I seem to remember seeing that more 20-30 year olds are being admitted than 50 to 60 year olds, or indeed any other age group.
Which is what puzzles me, as a year ago (and then forever on here afterwards) we were being told anyone under 40* didn't need to worry...

...so either the younger generation have suddenly found they've a lot of underlying conditions, or this new variant IS more virulent, or...???




* Without underlying conditions.