CV19 - Cure worse than the disease? (Vol 10)

[Ntv]

johnboy1975 said:

djc206 said:

grumbledoak said:

That is all the furlough has ever been for. It enables the lockdowns.

So the extension enables...

The extension is to allow time for hard hit industries like hospitality and travel to recover. A sudden stop before they can trade freely would not work. Aviation in particular is likely to be hard hit for a considerable length of time but supports a lot of well paid jobs. Avoiding those jobs going at a very low cost is money wisely spent.

So let them trade freely?

Re Aviation I agree. Targeted furlough.

Furlough for all means, as I understand it, if your work drops off seasonally in the summer to 50% (as it might in certain industries every summer), you can furlough 50% of your staff for a 3 month holiday. Indeed, if you dont, your competitors gain an advantage, so you are practically 'forced' to

Not convinced about aviation. There is good reason to believe travel will not recover to 2019 levels for a very very long time, given the likely long term reduction in business travel, and no doubt some ongoing restrictions on travel related to the virus.

What purpose is served?

It isn't the preservation of skills, because those people aren't working. Indeed furlough is obviously very bad for people and many / most of their skills. Even in a customer facing role, spending a year, two years, three years ??? not working isn't going to help you at all.

We do need the infrastructure, though the jobs that do that aren't furloughed. And some taxpayer support to make sure that infrastructure doesn't fall apart given decline in revenues seems to me sensible.

[grumbledoak]

Jasandjules said:

I think that was "fine" last year (in terms of the general public) but this year I don't think it will be enough if they try to lockdown in August/September again because people are now working on the "I will be free in summer". I suspect that going against that will be the trigger that finally makes people say no more.

I think “freedom” in the summer will be short lived and the furlough will get another extension. SPI-B will know better than to provide a trigger, at least while the weather is good.

[anonymous-user]

Twinfan said:

Depends on the size of your company. It will be scaled and stay at 19% for the smallest.

However, hiking it from 19% to 25% for the largest is proper going to sting and will drop down into reduced profits and lower pay rises etc.

It’s going to hurt pension funds a lot. Thats 6% less profits to distribute.

Need to see the 19-25% scale of where the pain is to know just how bad this will be for my business.

A big corp tax rise is exactly, imo, the wrong move to make. The economy is largely in trouble, many businesses are not doing well, we need investment in new jobs as the economy reshapes (things are not snapping back to 2019 anytime soon). The increase will result in lower tax takes as businesses either mitigate it through better tax planning (we will be doing that) or moving outside the jurisdiction.

[ant1973]

soofsayer said:

Twinfan said:

Depends on the size of your company. It will be scaled and stay at 19% for the smallest.

However, hiking it from 19% to 25% for the largest is proper going to sting and will drop down into reduced profits and lower pay rises etc.

It’s going to hurt pension funds a lot. Thats 6% less profits to distribute.

Need to see the 19-25% scale of where the pain is to know just how bad this will be for my business.

A big corp tax rise is exactly, imo, the wrong move to make. The economy is largely in trouble, many businesses are not doing well, we need investment in new jobs as the economy reshapes (things are not snapping back to 2019 anytime soon). The increase will result in lower tax takes as businesses either mitigate it through better tax planning (we will be doing that) or moving outside the jurisdiction.

It's politically smart. Have a look at the budget thread and most folk are delighted. Taxing someone else is always a good plan. When folk don't get pay increases and the like, they will blame the company. I am done with the Tories.

[RemarkLima]

Ntv said:

ant1973 said:

Furlough update:-

10% Employer Contribution in July
20% in August.

Cliff edge approaches....

All restrictions will have to be released by end of June, it would seem. Except we know that's bks....

Very obviously to reduce chances of summer unrest

It is a concern, as in theory we're on the runway out now, so once non-essential retail is open you should get the 10%, and then when hospitality is open you should get the 20%, may a month's lag to allow things to ramp up but it's either a cynical view of how the science will pan out, or that we're restricted further until July.

[monkfish1]

johnboy1975 said:

djc206 said:

grumbledoak said:

That is all the furlough has ever been for. It enables the lockdowns.

So the extension enables...

The extension is to allow time for hard hit industries like hospitality and travel to recover. A sudden stop before they can trade freely would not work. Aviation in particular is likely to be hard hit for a considerable length of time but supports a lot of well paid jobs. Avoiding those jobs going at a very low cost is money wisely spent.

So let them trade freely?

Re Aviation I agree. Targeted furlough.

Furlough for all means, as I understand it, if your work drops off seasonally in the summer to 50% (as it might in certain industries every summer), you can furlough 50% of your staff for a 3 month holiday. Indeed, if you dont, your competitors gain an advantage, so you are practically 'forced' to

This^^^. As always, unintended consequences. As those business that are sesonal and drop off in summer, will now furlough instead of just dealing with it. That then keeps the numbers up, so as the end approaches, HMG will look at furlough numbers and think, st, still high, extend, extend, Then the giuys with low levels of business in wither do the same.

At some point, the pain has to happen, but i cant see when or how as HMG are petrified of spiriling jobless numbers

[monkfish1]

Twinfan said:

Ntv said:

They are paying with no wage increase to be fair.

Fair point, well made.

I say lucky them. If thats as bad it it gets. Id

[monkfish1]

ant1973 said:

soofsayer said:

Twinfan said:

Depends on the size of your company. It will be scaled and stay at 19% for the smallest.

However, hiking it from 19% to 25% for the largest is proper going to sting and will drop down into reduced profits and lower pay rises etc.

It’s going to hurt pension funds a lot. Thats 6% less profits to distribute.

Need to see the 19-25% scale of where the pain is to know just how bad this will be for my business.

A big corp tax rise is exactly, imo, the wrong move to make. The economy is largely in trouble, many businesses are not doing well, we need investment in new jobs as the economy reshapes (things are not snapping back to 2019 anytime soon). The increase will result in lower tax takes as businesses either mitigate it through better tax planning (we will be doing that) or moving outside the jurisdiction.

It's politically smart. Have a look at the budget thread and most folk are delighted. Taxing someone else is always a good plan. When folk don't get pay increases and the like, they will blame the company. I am done with the Tories.

Yep! Heap all the costs on the few. You know, the ones that actually run things and employ people. Keep the votes of the many.

Like you, i will never vote for them again.

[Twinfan]

monkfish1 said:

I say lucky them. If thats as bad it it gets.

Yep, they get off VERY lightly. I'll probably get hit twice - a freeze on my hourly rate and an increase in CT.

[Smollet]

People saying they’re done with the Tories has got me as to wondering who they’ll vote for instead assuming they’ll still vote. Neither Labour nor the other lot haven’t exactly been the parties of low taxation. Quite the opposite in fact. I can’t see that changing .........ever. The Tories however will cut taxes when they can.

[anonymous-user]

monkfish1 said:

ant1973 said:

soofsayer said:

Twinfan said:

Depends on the size of your company. It will be scaled and stay at 19% for the smallest.

However, hiking it from 19% to 25% for the largest is proper going to sting and will drop down into reduced profits and lower pay rises etc.

It’s going to hurt pension funds a lot. Thats 6% less profits to distribute.

Need to see the 19-25% scale of where the pain is to know just how bad this will be for my business.

A big corp tax rise is exactly, imo, the wrong move to make. The economy is largely in trouble, many businesses are not doing well, we need investment in new jobs as the economy reshapes (things are not snapping back to 2019 anytime soon). The increase will result in lower tax takes as businesses either mitigate it through better tax planning (we will be doing that) or moving outside the jurisdiction.

It's politically smart. Have a look at the budget thread and most folk are delighted. Taxing someone else is always a good plan. When folk don't get pay increases and the like, they will blame the company. I am done with the Tories.

Yep! Heap all the costs on the few. You know, the ones that actually run things and employ people. Keep the votes of the many.

Like you, i will never vote for them again.

The penny will drop eventually. Prices will rise to help with the additional tax burden, so inflation will go up, indirectly increasing taxation on workers because allowances are frozen. Less disposable real income, less consumption, less economic activity, less investment.

All those thinking this is a good move are turkeys voting for Christmas. They wont know yet but the oven is on.

[djc206]

Ntv said:

You think that on a net basis jobs in hospitality will not be viable in July or August, but will be in October or November?

The world has changed. Aviation will indeed be very hard hit for a long time. There were jobs in aviation 18 months ago that will not exist in 6 months or 6 years from now.

World has changed.

They are propping up the world of 2019. In an effort to avert unrest (an entirely justifiable concern IMO).

The world really doesn’t need to change long term. There’s no reason why we can’t all pile back into pubs both here and in Magaluf. But that’s not going to happen in June to the extent we need it to in order to abandon all support.

Hospitality not so much although offering a bit of a lifeline if things get off to a slow start doesn’t hurt. If they don’t need it then that’s a win, if they do then the decision is still the correct one.

I would suggest furlough is cheaper than the alternative. If people lose their jobs they end up on benefits which are expensive and bureaucratic, you also impose a burden on social housing which is already overloaded. Easier just to pay people their £2500 and keep them in the employed stats, that also looks better. In the grand scheme of things furlough really isn’t that expensive. So far it’s cost ~£55bn and the amount being claimed has fallen to around £3.5bn per month and that will fall as we reopen various sectors as it did last year. It’s my view that furlough is the best thing the government have done during this pandemic although that’s not exactly high praise.

[johnboy1975]

Smollet said:

People saying they’re done with the Tories has got me as to wondering who they’ll vote for instead assuming they’ll still vote. Neither Labour nor the other lot haven’t exactly been the parties of low taxation. Quite the opposite in fact. I can’t see that changing .........ever. The Tories however will cut taxes when they can.

Pretty much this. Even not voting risks letting Labour in. And they'd have gone earlier, harder and for longer regarding this (and therefore any future) pandemic.

Maybe politics needs to change. There's certainly scope for Labour to split along the new Labour/ momentum lines (although maybe that opportunity/danger has passed now?)

Perhaps the Tories need to split along the lockdown / open up divide? (Dont think we are there yet, any backwards moving of the dates or a future lockdown will see the battle lines quickly drawn though (I hope))

[djc206]

johnboy1975 said:

So let them trade freely?

Re Aviation I agree. Targeted furlough.

Furlough for all means, as I understand it, if your work drops off seasonally in the summer to 50% (as it might in certain industries every summer), you can furlough 50% of your staff for a 3 month holiday. Indeed, if you dont, your competitors gain an advantage, so you are practically 'forced' to

Well yes letting them trade freely would be the sensible thing but that’s not the path the government have chosen so the country still needs the CJRS.

Which industries die a death in summer? Serious question btw I’m not being flippant.

[Ntv]

Smollet said:

People saying they’re done with the Tories has got me as to wondering who they’ll vote for instead assuming they’ll still vote. Neither Labour nor the other lot haven’t exactly been the parties of low taxation. Quite the opposite in fact. I can’t see that changing .........ever. The Tories however will cut taxes when they can.

That's partly why we need an end to FPTP. Nothing in my lifetime has shown this more starkly than covid and HMG response.

We need a certain number (100 say) of MPs to be elected in proportion to the national vote.

[Twinfan]

djc206 said:

Which industries die a death in summer? Serious question btw I’m not being flippant.

A lot of live music venues do as the festival scene takes over.

[vonuber]

Ntv said:

That's partly why we need an end to FPTP. Nothing in my lifetime has shown this more starkly than covid and HMG response.

We need a certain number (100 say) of MPs to be elected in proportion to the national vote.

I've been banging the PR drum for years, but apparently people like strong government elected by a minority.

[scenario8]

Stuzza said:

CAH706 said:

This morning the BBC had a reasonably prominent piece on Texas reopening. Now, I can’t seem to see this......I wonder why?

This one? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56255701

404 via that link for some reason (on my devices currently anyway!)

This is currently not on the news front page (desktop or tablet versions of the site) as it was briefly, nor on the World pages - but can be found as the 29th story (at the time of posting) on the US page.

I think the OP is fair to note the dropping of most lockdown measures in many states is being given scant coverage - and even then is hardly being spun positively.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-5625570...

[Ntv]

djc206 said:

Ntv said:

You think that on a net basis jobs in hospitality will not be viable in July or August, but will be in October or November?

The world has changed. Aviation will indeed be very hard hit for a long time. There were jobs in aviation 18 months ago that will not exist in 6 months or 6 years from now.

World has changed.

They are propping up the world of 2019. In an effort to avert unrest (an entirely justifiable concern IMO).

The world really doesn’t need to change long term. There’s no reason why we can’t all pile back into pubs both here and in Magaluf. But that’s not going to happen in June to the extent we need it to in order to abandon all support.

Hospitality not so much although offering a bit of a lifeline if things get off to a slow start doesn’t hurt. If they don’t need it then that’s a win, if they do then the decision is still the correct one.

I would suggest furlough is cheaper than the alternative. If people lose their jobs they end up on benefits which are expensive and bureaucratic, you also impose a burden on social housing which is already overloaded. Easier just to pay people their £2500 and keep them in the employed stats, that also looks better. In the grand scheme of things furlough really isn’t that expensive. So far it’s cost ~£55bn and the amount being claimed has fallen to around £3.5bn per month and that will fall as we reopen various sectors as it did last year. It’s my view that furlough is the best thing the government have done during this pandemic although that’s not exactly high praise.

HI, I think the world has changed, even longer term. Though agree completely that much of normality will come back, hopefully quickly. I think concern about viruses, the accelerated remote learning experiment of the past year, plus green concerns will curtail the recovery of air travel very substantially. Though obviously bucket and spade stuff will in large part come back - Greece and Spain need it badly for a start.

Furlough is way more expensive than benefits - way way way more. It's also grossly unfair on the unemployed seeking work. It also buys support for destructive policies. It's also for many employees, sadly, not in their longer term interests.

I agree with the basic idea of supporting viable businesses through a difficult period as more damage would be done otherwise, but after a year and a half the question is what are we now doing. The argument for continuing becomes weaker each day.

Let's take hospitality. The country will be fully open we're told in June. Right now holiday bookings have surged massively and festivals are selling out quickly. There are a few things we don't know, such as when sports events can be fully attended (I heard today Wimbledon is going ahead with 50% capacity).

So why are we furloughing workers through July and August? One has to recognise the long period of time between early 2020 and Q3 2021 and that it isn't just a short tide-ing over. The market will have changed. Which hospitality businesses will need these workers who used to work for them in early 2020 but have since largely been on furlough to suddenly come on stream in October 2021?

[RemarkLima]

johnboy1975 said:

Smollet said:

People saying they’re done with the Tories has got me as to wondering who they’ll vote for instead assuming they’ll still vote. Neither Labour nor the other lot haven’t exactly been the parties of low taxation. Quite the opposite in fact. I can’t see that changing .........ever. The Tories however will cut taxes when they can.

Pretty much this. Even not voting risks letting Labour in. And they'd have gone earlier, harder and for longer regarding this (and therefore any future) pandemic.

Maybe politics needs to change. There's certainly scope for Labour to split along the new Labour/ momentum lines (although maybe that opportunity/danger has passed now?)

Perhaps the Tories need to split along the lockdown / open up divide? (Dont think we are there yet, any backwards moving of the dates or a future lockdown will see the battle lines quickly drawn though (I hope))

If this could spur proper Proportional Representation that would be good - a meaningful coalition that spanned all party views would represent the country accurately!