2021 Budget Predictions

Author
Discussion

vulture1

13,173 posts

194 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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Brainpox said:
Public sector pay freeze
Extend stamp duty relief to after the summer
Some proposals to encourage spending at hospitality venues, when they are allowed to re-open
Fuel duty must surely be raided now?
Given there's still plenty of time before the next election I wonder if they'd do something like reducing tax-free allowance?
Can you imagine the outrage that will come with the public sector pay freeze. Even though a huge chunk of the private sector has been destroyed.

FWIW

3,434 posts

112 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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992_GT3 said:
They already do.
Haha...I guess he meant at a proper rate.

992_GT3

286 posts

54 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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FWIW said:
Haha...I guess he meant at a proper rate.
They pay the same rates as every other business.

Shnozz

28,907 posts

286 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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Sophisticated Sarah said:
Probably further punishments for the self employed.
Sadly that’s what I envisage too and some noises already. Convenient how corporation tax largely seems overlooked and how the government happily deem a director as self-employed when they see fit and employed when it suits them.

Jamescrs

5,279 posts

80 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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vulture1 said:
Can you imagine the outrage that will come with the public sector pay freeze. Even though a huge chunk of the private sector has been destroyed.
They were already putting out the idea of a Public sector pay freeze except the NHS so whilst I don't agree with it I think the wider public will probably accept it

amgmcqueen

3,508 posts

165 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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Public sector pay freeze.
MP's salaries slashed by 50%.
Number of MPs reduced.
Scrap the HOLs.
Scrap HS2.
Scrap foreign aid.
Scrap benefits.
Scrap the Barnett Formula.
Tax Amazon, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Apple, Microsoft etc 50%.
Raise CGT.
10p litre on fuel.
5% on a packet of fags.
Toll the Channel tunnel.

elanfan

5,527 posts

242 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!

Macron

Original Poster:

11,732 posts

181 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
quotequote all
vulture1 said:
Brainpox said:
Public sector pay freeze
Extend stamp duty relief to after the summer
Some proposals to encourage spending at hospitality venues, when they are allowed to re-open
Fuel duty must surely be raided now?
Given there's still plenty of time before the next election I wonder if they'd do something like reducing tax-free allowance?
Can you imagine the outrage that will come with the public sector pay freeze. Even though a huge chunk of the private sector has been destroyed.
Hardly a prediction, it's already been announced.

And there are oddities with the early departmental settlements, MOD got £4bn for kit, and will lose 10k armed forces, and needs to go further than that on civilians (obvs), reducing the pay bill by 12.5%.

Done deal.

The only thing Rishi can do is announce yet more NHS £ as wages to thank our hardworking medical personnel, which I'd like to think few would argue with, but this is PH, and of course it rather undermines a PS pay freeze.

Dixy

3,224 posts

220 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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May I suggest you friends might be telling you porkies.

98elise

29,690 posts

176 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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elanfan said:
I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!
There is no legitimate way to do that if they are earning more then the tax fee amounts (or paying into a pension).

If they are simply not declaring income, that doesn't need an accountant. Why would an accountant get involved in a crime to benefit their client?


M22s

573 posts

164 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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Jamescrs said:
No great hits to people this year as they are trying to climb out of covid and will want the country to go back out spending.

Next year will be bad.
This is where I am thinking at the moment; I expect there will be change in local rates than anything.

Imagine there will be some sort of reliefs to stimulate the economy further.

I guess the big’y that is still to hit, is what unemployment rises to in the 2-3 months after furlough ends - I imagine there will be some sort of contingency allowed for this too.

montecristo

1,078 posts

192 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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When/how would potential CGT changes announced on budget day come into effect? i.e. is there likely to be a window post-budget when one could sell assets at the existing/lower CGT rate?

Edited by montecristo on Sunday 14th February 15:09

Jasandjules

71,018 posts

244 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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I hope to see a £1000pcm charge to anyone who supported the lockdowns. You wanted it, you pay for it. biggrin

Biggy Stardust

7,068 posts

59 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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Macron said:
The only thing Rishi can do is announce yet more NHS £ as wages to thank our hardworking medical personnel, which I'd like to think few would argue with, but this is PH, and of course it rather undermines a PS pay freeze.
Extra money for those with guaranteed employment with gold-plated, iron-clad, copper bottomed pensions whilst those without such security struggle? This extra being on top of the usual pay rises & pay increments?

I think the argument against might be more common than you suggest.

oyster

13,133 posts

263 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Totally wrong on pensions - pensioners are the lowest spending group in the economy. Extra pensions would just stay in the bank.
I’d say the opposite, time to drop the triple lock - albeit this could be political suicide.

Saleen836

11,873 posts

224 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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elanfan said:
I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!
50p says they all moaned like hell when the SEISS they claimed was minimal stating "how am I meant to survive on that?" hehe

Gecko1978

11,350 posts

172 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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elanfan said:
I have personal knowledge of several friends who are self employed and they pay virtually no tax as their accountants somehow manage arrange it so. How about the self employed start paying their fair share would be a start!
Pre ir35 I paid v little PAYE but paid corp and Dividend tax and charged VAT ir35 came in an I now pay top rate tax plus employers NI and a fee to get my pay. But also had zero support from the government in terms of access to furlough. So I doubt they do pay zero but proably pay tax in different ways. Oh an as for fair share in 2020 I paid over 100k in personal tax I think given most workers earn gross less than 37k so make bet zero contribution that the self employed (for employment rights and protection but employed for tax) are making a fair contribution and if they are paying zero thats evasion not avoidance and its illegal.

Craigyp79

605 posts

198 months

Sunday 14th February 2021
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amgmcqueen said:
Toll the Channel tunnel.
Are you under the impression that it's free at the moment?

Flooble

5,599 posts

115 months

Monday 15th February 2021
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The MO of this government is to trail various options in "leaks" and then select those that cause the least uproar. Together with spinning campaigns against any targets they have pre-selected. I haven't noticed many leaks yet nor do the BBC seem to be running any stories about how little corporation tax is paid by large multi-nationals etc. Which does seem to imply the status quo may be maintained.

My wholly without basis suggestions would be:

1) "Sin" taxes.
a) Increase in duty on alcohol drunk at home ("To assist the pub trade get back on its feet")
b) Increase or introduction of taxes on sugary drinks/fatty foods/fast food ("To fight obesity and put us in a better place to withstand the third wave"
c) Usual cranking up of tax on cigarettes ("To protect the NHS")
d) Big jump in duty and tax on fuel - while lots of people are not driving and the price of oil is depressed it will be a lot less noticeable. ("To encourage a green recovery"
e) Big increase in Air Passenger Duty or even a new tax entirely. ("To encourage more sustainable options in the future now we have shown video conferencing can work")

2) "Fiddling round the edges"
a) Freezing of all the allowance bands so people are caught by fiscal drag ("Now is not the time to be making changes").
b) Removal of higher rate tax relief on pensions ("Level playing field")
c) Alignment of tax on dividends and PAYE income ("Furlough has shown us we need to ensure people receive their income in a way government can support"). This will be the biggest surprise if they do it - or something lose to it such as adjusting the bands - but while a lot of small businesses are on the ropes it's probably the easiest time for him to hit them. The other impacts (to pension funds, regular investors etc.) are I feel hidden from the bulk of the population, much like the tax raid on pensions in the early 2000s.
d) Resetting of Corporation Tax to just below the OECD average - they might even squeak it up to 25%. If they did both c and d I'd be surprised but you never know
e) Some tweaking to VAT. Maybe a "Super Luxury" tax, although no idea how they could easily implement it. Given the way government goes, maybe something a bit mad like any shoes/suits/handbags/whatever over £500 count as "super luxury" and attract the higher rate. Cue lots of interesting avoidance schemes (This suit is £499 when you buy our £1000 plastic cufflinks).

Any other suggestions?

CraigyMc

17,861 posts

251 months

Monday 15th February 2021
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Macron said:
Wednesday March 3, Rishi Rich will be telling the rest of us how much poorer we need to be to pay for Covid, £280bn and rising...

What are your predictions (ie how much lube, and where?)

I can see a lot of stealth, eg freezing allowances, and the fuel duty escalator coming back in, before we've thought about CGT as discussed in the Finance folder perhaps being aligned with income tax.
This year? Not much. As others have opined, you can't stall a recovery by taxing it to death unless you're happy to kill the patient.

The first budget after the pandemic will not be so much "lube" as "David Cronenberg movie". Wholly new orifices will be created.