Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[saaby93]

mondeoman said:

saaby93 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Another shout out for Denys and his maps;

https://youtu.be/UCh8gPEFUcQ

Still talking about how to get troops out of Mariopol rather than how to get a connection through for support

It makes ZERO tactical sense to try and relieve Mariupol. Zero.
They'd have to draw troops away from the current defensive lines, cross 100km of occupied territory, fight through the city, just to get to the steel works.

Aint gonna happen. Sad for the guys still there, but for UKR they were realistically lost once RU encircled the city.

Zero?
ok so what happens next month when Ukraine tries to take it back?
Surely its best to try to keep the site onside until then?
See similar for Snake Island - retaking something isnt that easy once youve let it go.
What about using drones for airdrops to Mariupol

[Oilchange]

Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...

[mondeoman]

saaby93 said:

mondeoman said:

saaby93 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Another shout out for Denys and his maps;

https://youtu.be/UCh8gPEFUcQ

Still talking about how to get troops out of Mariopol rather than how to get a connection through for support

It makes ZERO tactical sense to try and relieve Mariupol. Zero.
They'd have to draw troops away from the current defensive lines, cross 100km of occupied territory, fight through the city, just to get to the steel works.

Aint gonna happen. Sad for the guys still there, but for UKR they were realistically lost once RU encircled the city.

Zero?
ok so what happens next month when Ukraine tries to take it back?
Surely its best to try to keep the site onside until then?
See similar for Snake Island - retaking something isnt that easy once youve let it go.
What about using drones for airdrops to Mariupol

At this time, it is zero. Moving troops away from front-line defence to relieve Mariupol means losing Mykolaiv (for example) and then Odessa. Not a good swap. They couldn't hold Mariupol at the moment, even if they could get through. Its a waste of resources.

Drones and copters move too slowly to do air drops , and drones couldn't move sufficient mass to make the loses worthwhile. The area is too small and too contested to try a drop from a freighter/Hercules/whatever - this isn't the movies.

As I said, very very sad for the soldiers on the ground, and they are doing an incredible job in tying up RU resources, but there is no physical way for them to be relieved / saved, unless RU lets them out on humanitarian grounds, and that aint gonna happen.

[mondeoman]

Oilchange said:

Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...

Not everyone is a knuckledragger with no brain....

[TheJimi]

Oilchange said:

Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...

Helpful, well thought-out post.

Bravo

[Oilchange]

You're welcome, now get back to planning the Ukrainians war effort for them...

[saaby93]

mondeoman said:

saaby93 said:

mondeoman said:

saaby93 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Another shout out for Denys and his maps;

https://youtu.be/UCh8gPEFUcQ

Still talking about how to get troops out of Mariopol rather than how to get a connection through for support

It makes ZERO tactical sense to try and relieve Mariupol. Zero.
They'd have to draw troops away from the current defensive lines, cross 100km of occupied territory, fight through the city, just to get to the steel works.

Aint gonna happen. Sad for the guys still there, but for UKR they were realistically lost once RU encircled the city.

Zero?
ok so what happens next month when Ukraine tries to take it back?
Surely its best to try to keep the site onside until then?
See similar for Snake Island - retaking something isnt that easy once youve let it go.
What about using drones for airdrops to Mariupol

At this time, it is zero. Moving troops away from front-line defence to relieve Mariupol means losing Mykolaiv (for example) and then Odessa. Not a good swap. They couldn't hold Mariupol at the moment, even if they could get through. Its a waste of resources.

Drones and copters move too slowly to do air drops , and drones couldn't move sufficient mass to make the loses worthwhile. The area is too small and too contested to try a drop from a freighter/Hercules/whatever - this isn't the movies.

As I said, very very sad for the soldiers on the ground, and they are doing an incredible job in tying up RU resources, but there is no physical way for them to be relieved / saved, unless RU lets them out on humanitarian grounds, and that aint gonna happen.

Isnt it the other way around?
They've held onto Mariupol far longer than expected and holding it is a drain on Russian resources.
If they can find any means to hold it short term, should be a benefit long term

[Polly Grigora]

Oilchange said:

Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...

Think that the few that do know much aren't posting much

[saaby93]

Polly Grigora said:

Oilchange said:

Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...

Think that the few that do know much aren't posting much

Our main weapon is surprise

[TheJimi]

Oilchange said:

You're welcome, now get back to planning the Ukrainians war effort for them...

So mondeoman advocates that diverting resources to Mariupol at this point, wouid be a waste of limited resources.

I don't think it takes a master tactician to understand the logic in that.

Do you have an opinion or a counter argument, or is sniping from the sidelines with stty comments the best you can do?

[Oilchange]

TheJimi said:

Oilchange said:

You're welcome, now get back to planning the Ukrainians war effort for them...

So mondeoman advocates that diverting resources to Mariupol at this point, wouid be a waste of limited resources.

I don't think it takes a master tactician to understand the logic in that.

Do you have an opinion or a counter argument, or is sniping from the sidelines with stty comments the best you can do?

I have no idea what the tactical plan is and how it weaves into the longer game so I'd use less black/white language frankly. It may be a great idea for reasons we have no idea about. But I don't know what they are and that's a good thing.

[andy_s]

saaby93 said:

Polly Grigora said:

Oilchange said:

Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...

Think that the few that do know much aren't posting much

Our main weapon is surprise

'Surprise...and fear...Our two weapons are surprise and fear...and ruthless efficiency' etc

[Sheets Tabuer]

andy_s said:

saaby93 said:

Polly Grigora said:

Oilchange said:

Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...

Think that the few that do know much aren't posting much

Our main weapon is surprise

'Surprise...and fear...Our two weapons are surprise and fear...and ruthless efficiency' etc

It's Sunday, most of the gravy seals with be getting the roast on.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Oilchange said:

I have no idea what the tactical plan is and how it weaves into the longer game so I'd use less black/white language frankly. It may be a great idea for reasons we have no idea about. But I don't know what they are and that's a good thing.

The fact they have been pleading for help for several weeks and the UA hasn't sent any substantive support tells you it doesn't make sense from a military point of view. Mondeoman just explained the most likely reason why.

[TTmonkey]

saaby93 said:

Zero?
ok so what happens next month when Ukraine tries to take it back?
Surely its best to try to keep the site onside until then?
See similar for Snake Island - retaking something isnt that easy once youve let it go.
What about using drones for airdrops to Mariupol

Snake island is of significant importance strategically.

Avostal steel works has no strategic importance, other than tying up lots of Russian forces and its political importance of denying a local victory.

[Polly Grigora]

saaby93 said:

Polly Grigora said:

Oilchange said:

Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...

Think that the few that do know much aren't posting much

Our main weapon is surprise

I reckon those that know much spend much time rolling about laughing after visiting here

Those that lie low are full of surprises

[Vasco]

Finland confirms that formal application to join NATO is expected to be ratified in next few days.

[captain_cynic]

Vasco said:

Finland confirms that formal application to join NATO is expected to be ratified in next few days.

With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, it's a no-lose proposition for the Finns.

Fear of Russia was the main reason the hadn't already joined NATO.

[anonymous-user]

captain_cynic said:

With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, it's a no-lose proposition for the Finns.

Fear of Russia was the main reason the hadn't already joined NATO.

And now fear of Russia is the main reason they want to join.

[captain_cynic]

jsf said:

captain_cynic said:

With Russia bogged down in Ukraine, it's a no-lose proposition for the Finns.

Fear of Russia was the main reason the hadn't already joined NATO.

And now fear of Russia is the main reason they want to join.

Indeed. Fear is a very fickle motivator.

When Russia was thought to be strong, they wouldn't dare think of joining NATO. Now Russia has been shown to be weak, they can't join fast enough.