Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
TheJimi said:
Oilchange said:
Arnold Cunningham said:
Oilchange said:
Master tacticians here on Pistonheads...
Well...certainly, for some unknown and odd reason, this thread on a petrol heads has become a group of balanced, well thought out and considered thoughts on Ukraine, which if you read "through" the posts carefully, in many cases you can see is based on much more than the latest nuclear headline grabbing BS from some newspaper - it shows good understanding of history, psychology, economics, politics, warfare. This is the best of Pistonheads Institute for Studies.There's no one here particularly trying to tell Zelensky what his next move should be, even if people are discussing what his options could be.
Arguably this is one of the best threads pistonheads has ever had. That said, I reckon we'd be buggered as a pistonheads army - lots of discussion and consideration, but actually getting out and doing something about it. Don't push your luck.
Perhaps I should have put a smiley at the end and it wouldn't have touched so many nerves, who knows.
It's a very sensible and considered discussion and throwaway pissy comments like yours above contribute nothing, much less offers any "balance".
_Al_ said:
So much for the stalemate… Sounds like UA doing very well today. Russians in retreat from Kharkiv back toward their own border and rumours the UA are taking the momentum through to Izyum.
Regardless of what it sounds like, the map for today still looks very similar to the one from last Thursday, which looks very similar to the from two weeks ago. You can argue that slow progress is to be expected at this stage of the war, or that everything is about to change with the arrival of the new weapons, but I don't think you can say it doesn't looks like a stalemate in terms of territory controlled at the moment.
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/152583344863170...
EddieSteadyGo said:
_Al_ said:
So much for the stalemate… Sounds like UA doing very well today. Russians in retreat from Kharkiv back toward their own border and rumours the UA are taking the momentum through to Izyum.
Regardless of what it sounds like, the map for today still looks very similar to the one from last Thursday, which looks very similar to the from two weeks ago. You can argue that slow progress is to be expected at this stage of the war, or that everything is about to change with the arrival of the new weapons, but I don't think you can say it doesn't looks like a stalemate in terms of territory controlled at the moment.https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/152583344863170...
Is Russia now building up its forces to hold on to the territory it's taken
Like Crimea
once it's consolidated it can look to the next piece of the jigsaw puzzle
EddieSteadyGo said:
_Al_ said:
So much for the stalemate… Sounds like UA doing very well today. Russians in retreat from Kharkiv back toward their own border and rumours the UA are taking the momentum through to Izyum.
Regardless of what it sounds like, the map for today still looks very similar to the one from last Thursday, which looks very similar to the from two weeks ago. You can argue that slow progress is to be expected at this stage of the war, or that everything is about to change with the arrival of the new weapons, but I don't think you can say it doesn't looks like a stalemate in terms of territory controlled at the moment.https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/152583344863170...
The salient points are Russia are taking much riskier actions and failing heavily - losing significant capabilities and materiel. They are also withdrawing from key strategic objectives they've invested (and lost) huge amounts of materiel and troops into. Might not look like much on the map, but significant.
It's certainly not stalemate.
Polly Grigora said:
It was built when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, so would imagine they have knowledge beyond a newspaper artists impression.They are just trying to bomb the s
t out of it but it was built for a nuclear blast so conventional stuff doesnt seem to make that much of an impression. They cant get to close I expect as they get shot when Ukrainians pop up like what a mole.J4CKO said:
Polly Grigora said:
It was built when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, so would imagine they have knowledge beyond a newspaper artists impression.They are just trying to bomb the s
t out of it but it was built for a nuclear blast so conventional stuff doesnt seem to make that much of an impression. They cant get to close I expect as they get shot when Ukrainians pop up like what a mole.What does confuse me about the bombing is that recently Putin was talking about leaving it surrounded and getting on with other parts of the war, yes we all know that Putin is not to be believed but it would have made sense if Russia moved on
EddieSteadyGo said:
_Al_ said:
So much for the stalemate… Sounds like UA doing very well today. Russians in retreat from Kharkiv back toward their own border and rumours the UA are taking the momentum through to Izyum.
Regardless of what it sounds like, the map for today still looks very similar to the one from last Thursday, which looks very similar to the from two weeks ago. You can argue that slow progress is to be expected at this stage of the war, or that everything is about to change with the arrival of the new weapons, but I don't think you can say it doesn't looks like a stalemate in terms of territory controlled at the moment.https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/152583344863170...
mondeoman said:
It was always going to be a grind, some wins, some losses, but the expectation remains that ukr will push back.
Feel free to quote this back to me in a month. It's important to separate out what we would like to happen (despite what some think, I'd very much like Putin to definitively lose this war), from what the Ukraine (or Russians) say is happening, from what is actually happening, based on whatever bits of objective information we can piece together.
And that last post I quoted is a good example... someone says it "sounded like" everything was going well with the Russians being pushed back etc and yet the map still looks pretty much the same....
EddieSteadyGo said:
mondeoman said:
It was always going to be a grind, some wins, some losses, but the expectation remains that ukr will push back.
Feel free to quote this back to me in a month. It's important to separate out what we would like to happen (despite what some think, I'd very much like Putin to definitively lose this war), from what the Ukraine (or Russians) say is happening, from what is actually happening, based on whatever bits of objective information we can piece together.
And that last post I quoted is a good example... someone says it "sounded like" everything was going well with the Russians being pushed back etc and yet the map still looks pretty much the same....
The Russians are attacking and have been for weeks. Yet the map still looks the same…
They’ve suffered the loss of masses of kit and soldiers. Yet the map still looks the same…
They’re doing “conscription and mobilisation by the back door”. Yet the map still looks the same…
There’s more to this than the map.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Regardless of what it sounds like, the map for today still looks very similar to the one from last Thursday, which looks very similar to the from two weeks ago. You can argue that slow progress is to be expected at this stage of the war, or that everything is about to change with the arrival of the new weapons, but I don't think you can say it doesn't looks like a stalemate in terms of territory controlled at the moment.
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/152583344863170...
Stalemate in the SE with the Government still in place *is* a win for Ukraine.https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/152583344863170...
Taking land back is going to be very difficult for Ukraine (as Russia have found.)
On the other hand, holding that land could be a nightmare for Russia. They have no friends, no budget to rebuild. The Russians have killed most of the male population of Dombass and maimed the rest. So will Ukraine need to retake it or will it just fall back to them? Putin can sell anything to his people, literally anything.
Russians of Telegram are insane. Ukraine is a) Nazi b) A bastion of BLM/LGBT people all at the same time.
EddieSteadyGo said:
mondeoman said:
It was always going to be a grind, some wins, some losses, but the expectation remains that ukr will push back.
Feel free to quote this back to me in a month. It's important to separate out what we would like to happen (despite what some think, I'd very much like Putin to definitively lose this war), from what the Ukraine (or Russians) say is happening, from what is actually happening, based on whatever bits of objective information we can piece together.
And that last post I quoted is a good example... someone says it "sounded like" everything was going well with the Russians being pushed back etc and yet the map still looks pretty much the same....
Expect to see slow RU advances in the central belt.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Feel free to quote this back to me in a month.
It's important to separate out what we would like to happen (despite what some think, I'd very much like Putin to definitively lose this war), from what the Ukraine (or Russians) say is happening, from what is actually happening, based on whatever bits of objective information we can piece together.
And that last post I quoted is a good example... someone says it "sounded like" everything was going well with the Russians being pushed back etc and yet the map still looks pretty much the same....
Why are you expecting it to be over in 2 weeks? Or to see big map changes?It's important to separate out what we would like to happen (despite what some think, I'd very much like Putin to definitively lose this war), from what the Ukraine (or Russians) say is happening, from what is actually happening, based on whatever bits of objective information we can piece together.
And that last post I quoted is a good example... someone says it "sounded like" everything was going well with the Russians being pushed back etc and yet the map still looks pretty much the same....
It's not Hearts of Iron 4.
_Al_ said:
I didn’t say everything was going well, I said it doesn’t look like a stalemate.
The Russians are attacking and have been for weeks. Yet the map still looks the same…
They’ve suffered the loss of masses of kit and soldiers. Yet the map still looks the same…
They’re doing “conscription and mobilisation by the back door”. Yet the map still looks the same…
There’s more to this than the map.
I wasn't trying to pick on you specifically, even if it sounded that way. You were though referring to the gains around Kharkiv, and suggested that it meant it didn't look like a stalemate, even though that was already showing on the map from last week I quoted. The Russians are attacking and have been for weeks. Yet the map still looks the same…
They’ve suffered the loss of masses of kit and soldiers. Yet the map still looks the same…
They’re doing “conscription and mobilisation by the back door”. Yet the map still looks the same…
There’s more to this than the map.
And a stalemate in terms of controlled territory doesn't mean both sides are not suffering losses - they clearly are. But I think the narrative we are told includes a lot of what we want to hear, which can lead to an assumption we are in the cusp of a breakthrough. My personal view is that doesn't always reflect current reality.
Seems more likely either there will be a peace deal in the near future (possibly involving some deal on Donetsk and Luhansk, and potentially Kherson), or Russia will follow the strategy described by the ISW which involves annexing all of the currently held territory and declare it Russian, as a way of trying to protect it from further escalation, in which case this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
EddieSteadyGo said:
But I think the narrative we are told includes a lot of what we want to hear, which can lead to an assumption we are in the cusp of a breakthrough. .
I'm not seeing that.The narrative I'm seeing is that Russia have run out of steam and will either stall or make continued slow progress.
I'm not seeing anyone credible predicting a Ukrainian breakthrough. Offence is way harder than defence.
EddieSteadyGo said:
...and yet the map still looks pretty much the same....
Yeah - pretty much; it's trend lines over weeks rather than daily data points really - I too have to stamp on my optimism. I said a while back that the general trend for Russia looks downhill and Ukraine upwards and to look for a tipping point period where those lines meet, Ukraine MoD reckon end of August [filter through 'public messaging for purpose' though] and I had it at June/July although you don't have to be Clausewitz to see a big stall after an initial push on the macro level at least.Good link on the previous page _AI_, cheers.
[^ I see it's been discussed - ignore above
]--
At some stage at the tipping point then we may see an exponential effect or 'collapse' in some way, ['Lanchesters square law' was a new one to me but it's what I mean] although what that looks like and what it prompts [a regrouping of forces for another day, a concentrated effort in a focused way in a small place to save face, coup, instant sunshine* etc] is another thing I guess.
'End of the beginning' not 'beginning of end'...?
[ * - I don't think so, reasonably btw]
--
Thanks for that graphic on the steelworks, I knew it had to be fairly defendable & robust seeing the battering over the past weeks without gain, but hadn't appreciated quite the scale / visualise it.
EddieSteadyGo said:
_Al_ said:
So much for the stalemate… Sounds like UA doing very well today. Russians in retreat from Kharkiv back toward their own border and rumours the UA are taking the momentum through to Izyum.
Regardless of what it sounds like, the map for today still looks very similar to the one from last Thursday, which looks very similar to the from two weeks ago. You can argue that slow progress is to be expected at this stage of the war, or that everything is about to change with the arrival of the new weapons, but I don't think you can say it doesn't looks like a stalemate in terms of territory controlled at the moment.https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/152583344863170...
Seems Russia might have upset some other countries by attacking the MiG repair facility at Lviv where other countries had their aircraft in maintenance - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMIDFzP_Cp4
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