Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
isaldiri said:
JNW1 said:
Perhaps - but in my view hanging the Ukraine out to dry isn't the only way of shutting down the mess sooner rather than later. Direct and focused military support from the US and other NATO countries could also bring the conflict to a swift conclusion with (IMO) the added benefit of sending a much better message to Russia (and others) in terms of how unprovoked aggression against a friendly country is likely to be handled....
Oh sure it is and it's also clearly something that has been very definitively ruled out a long time ago. We're entirely happy for the Ukrainians to use our kit and be doing the fighting and dying against the evil Russians to show how unprovoked aggression should be punished. We aren't quite as keen to be doing so ourselves.EddieSteadyGo said:
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
I’d swap the argument over ask what will Zelensky might do in six months time. Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
I’d be demanding that the Russians return the east to the pre 2014 Ukraine/Russia border, allow the pro Russians of the Donbas etc to head to Crimea and let Russia keep the Crimea…. I believe the Crimea is lost.
I’d be polite but really I wouldn’t give Putin the time of day at the conference table and especially not anything on his terms.
EddieSteadyGo said:
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
He should die. Now. It will restore world order. It’s the only out. Die you tZelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
t. EddieSteadyGo said:
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
I think we know what he'll do, when Russia culminate he'll claim he's liberated all the territory he needs to and call for a ceasefire. Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
If Ukraine say "nope, we wanna carry on" he'll hope that will fracture the resolve of the West.
....but that plan isn't going to work.
So...
He's painted himself into a corner, there's nothing he can do except maintain a low level defensive war for as long as he can until something changes.
I really see no way to a fast peace, neither side can concede enough for the other side, there is no clever way out.
TTmonkey said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
He should die. Now. It will restore world order. It’s the only out. Die you tZelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
t. That’s you that is….
Putin needs to die, not of old age or illness, there needs to be a credible video of it, and I hope it’s really f
king dire, I don’t want to see the full 12 hour marathon, just the end result.I wont settle for anything else.
BikeBikeBIke said:
...
He's painted himself into a corner, there's nothing he can do except maintain a low level defensive war for as long as he can until something changes.
...
I don't think the low level defensive war works - it leaves sanctions largely in place, which means the pressure points of Kaliningrad and having to sell a commodity at a discount to the market rate, when the market price itself will be reducing significantly. Plus they know Ukraine has sufficient artillery to strike deep into the Donbas, which means unhappy Donbas residents, which we know is the one thing which causes immense political pressure inside the Kremlin.He's painted himself into a corner, there's nothing he can do except maintain a low level defensive war for as long as he can until something changes.
...
So if that wasn't going to work, what else would you do, if you were thinking from Putin's perspective?
EddieSteadyGo said:
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
His Inner Circle are fully bought into this folly, so they wont say anything.Zelensky has said 'no' to negotiation with Russia at this stage. He wants to wait until they have better leverage (which makes sense from his point of view) as negotiation now would likely involve Russia start by saying they keep everything they currently hold. Russia is being squeezed on multiple sides; bogged down in the Donbas, under pressure in Kaliningrad, sanctions having a grinding (but not catastrophic effect).
On the upside, high energy prices are filling the coffers in the short term, but the futures contracts for oil and gas this time next year suggests prices next year could be -10% and -25% lower respectively (although on the same basis, it also suggests energy prices have further to go up before the end of the calendar year).
But longer term, selling energy at "sanction busting" discounts in order to find buyers, as the overall price reduces, doesn't sound attractive.
Putin could try and intimidate Zelensky and say, "negotiate now, else we will take Odessa next". But that will be a hard threat to implement, and Zelensky will likely say "do it, if you can"
To resource this, he could put the country onto a war footing, mobilising citizens to swell the army. He could (rightly) claim they were now facing a far greater alliance than just the Ukraine army, so that looks like a much more realistic prospect than it did in early May from my point of view.
But I can't see he has many other options to leverage - the "nuclear annihilation" threat isn't credible (they could do it, but surely the prospect of mutually assured destruction is as unattractive to Putin's family as it would be to our own). Threatening the gas supply has lost much of its initial fear factor and so reduced its leverage, as it is largely priced into the market already.
And he knows, if he does start to lose any ground as we get into the autumn, any (tiny) opportunity to find a peace deal will evaporate completely.
So given that situation, what do we think Putin will do?
If I were facing these options, I think probably the best option would be to threaten further escalation e.g. arrange a secret summit with Biden, and say something like, "your proxy war is causing us real harm. It is simmering over to the point of risking real war between us. I'm now going to mobilise my army fully, placing the country on a war footing, and the consequences could be grave on all sides... unless you work with us to find a solution."
Or alternatively, if that didn't work, someone like Medvedev as the representative of the Kremlin could make an approach to Biden, offering Putin's resignation and a ceasefire in return for the US supporting some face-saving deal on the Donbas.
I think it's quite useful sometimes to think what you would be in an opponent's situation, avoiding the "I wouldn't start from here" type answer. So, if you were part of Putin's inner circle, what would you advise he should do?
I think he'll convince Belarus to start an attack from the north and he'll continue a slow creep forward (or at least try to) until he gets all of Donetsk, at which point he'll claim a "victory".
Except I really dont think he's capable of making either of those two things work in his favour, I really dont.
EddieSteadyGo said:
So what do we think Putin will do next? And I mean *will* do, rather than *should* do.
I think it all boils down what is he doing now. He's pushing buttons to see how far he can go so it will all be about how robust a response he sees.Let him off the hook and he will continually push for more, be decisive as is happening with Ukraine mentality, sanctions, Kallingrad, military support etc and he may just start to think what can i possibly hang on to here?
There is nothing to negotiate at the moment while he is in take what he likes mode. Give him a bloody nose and he may actually be worth talking to?
EddieSteadyGo said:
I don't think the low level defensive war works - it leaves sanctions largely in place, which means the pressure points of Kaliningrad and having to sell a commodity at a discount to the market rate, when the market price itself will be reducing significantly. Plus they know Ukraine has sufficient artillery to strike deep into the Donbas, which means unhappy Donbas residents, which we know is the one thing which causes immense political pressure inside the Kremlin.
So if that wasn't going to work, what else would you do?
The sanctions are staying while Putin is leader of Russia, maybe they could be tweaked but our dependence on Russian energy will be reduced whatever happens. There is no path (including Putin's immediate suicide and replacement with Ed Davey) that restores Russia's economy to where it was in early Feb.So if that wasn't going to work, what else would you do?
...and yeah, I genuinely see no way forward/out for Russia so an endless defensive war in the Donbas is Putin's only option.
I'd love to be wrong.
(Suicide would genuinely be a terrific way out, but he's a moral coward, he won't even sit near people.)
MOTORVATOR said:
I think it all boils down what is he doing now. He's pushing buttons to see how far he can go so it will all be about how robust a response he sees.
...
True, but he has ended up caught up in a rather nasty net; bogged down in a painful ground war, foreign reserves frozen (with the threat of being confiscated), forced to sell energy at a discount (which whilst fine now is heading into problems as the price drops next year), and facing Ukraine which now has sufficient artillery to keep lobbing shells into the Donbas causing unhappy residents (who will blame their self-declared protectorate, Putin)....
So if you were Putin or his close advisor, what would you do next?
EddieSteadyGo said:
MOTORVATOR said:
I think it all boils down what is he doing now. He's pushing buttons to see how far he can go so it will all be about how robust a response he sees.
...
True, but he has ended up caught up in a rather nasty net; bogged down in a painful ground war, foreign reserves frozen (with the threat of being confiscated), forced to sell energy at a discount (which whilst fine now is heading into problems as the price drops next year), and facing Ukraine which now has sufficient artillery to keep lobbing shells into the Donbas causing unhappy residents (who will blame their self-declared protectorate, Putin)....
So if you were Putin or his close advisor, what would you do next?
BikeBikeBIke said:
Loss percentages among those from the separatist side is shocking. The two principle groups (cant remember the names, never mind spell them correctly) are suffering huge and disproportionate losses in comparison to the Russians. And there is a lot of evidence that much of the losses are of these two groups - deliberately! Sheesh, another grim reality of the Russian tactics, but also yes, they have to resort to press gangs as its the only way to get people to sign up. Its really that bad.
J4CKO said:
Putin needs to die, not of old age or illness, there needs to be a credible video of it, and I hope it’s really fking dire, I don’t want to see the full 12 hour marathon, just the end result.
I wont settle for anything else.
I really dont wish death on many people - but Putin is absolutely there, smack top of the list. Given the pain, death and destruction that he has created - yeah, there is a special place in hell for that man!king dire, I don’t want to see the full 12 hour marathon, just the end result.I wont settle for anything else.
And what for? Seriously? What does this really do? If he hadn't embarked on a stupid invasion in the first place, he could have continued to reap the rewards of expensive energy and holding several European nations by the gonads. Russia would have continued to grow, get slightly more wealthy and his cronies would have got significantly richer....
But no, death ghoul Putin wants to inflict death by the tens of thousands because of some illusion that he's some how a reincarnation of Peter the Great and he's going to some how subdue Europe. Yeah, Putin needs to die....
off_again said:
Loss percentages among those from the separatist side is shocking. The two principle groups (cant remember the names, never mind spell them correctly) are suffering huge and disproportionate losses in comparison to the Russians. And there is a lot of evidence that much of the losses are of these two groups - deliberately!
Sheesh, another grim reality of the Russian tactics, but also yes, they have to resort to press gangs as its the only way to get people to sign up. Its really that bad.
Not sure how true it is but I read a 55% causalty rate (so far).Sheesh, another grim reality of the Russian tactics, but also yes, they have to resort to press gangs as its the only way to get people to sign up. Its really that bad.
mondeoman said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
MOTORVATOR said:
I think it all boils down what is he doing now. He's pushing buttons to see how far he can go so it will all be about how robust a response he sees.
...
True, but he has ended up caught up in a rather nasty net; bogged down in a painful ground war, foreign reserves frozen (with the threat of being confiscated), forced to sell energy at a discount (which whilst fine now is heading into problems as the price drops next year), and facing Ukraine which now has sufficient artillery to keep lobbing shells into the Donbas causing unhappy residents (who will blame their self-declared protectorate, Putin)....
So if you were Putin or his close advisor, what would you do next?
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