Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)

[Mortarboard]

And don't forget, there's even more red tape to go through next week.

If, and it's a mahooisive if, the controls actually go in place by the end if the month.
But that's a tineline we've had a half-dozen times since brexit.

M.

[andymadmak]

CivicDuties said:

Fair enough response, andymadmak. However. Is it easier/cheaper now than before Brexit?

It's more difficult. Not as difficult as it used to be, not as simple as it had got to, but equally, its not THAT horrid either (based on conversations I have had with ex colleagues who are still in the trade) In absolutist terms you win on the "more difficult" point. In relative terms though its mostly a nothing burger.

CivicDuties said:

Is the new system delivering any opportunities for UK businesses since Brexit, what are those and what are the quantifiable results?

The system is the system, its not intended to deliver opportunities per se so I'm afraid this question is a bit loaded imho

CivicDuties said:

Is it delivering an increase or reduction in net business benefits to the UK?

As above, plus you'd need to define more tightly what you mean by net business benefits. It could indeed bring benefits for trade with countries that are not aligned with the EU for example.

CivicDuties said:

Is the implementation of this regime opening up opportunities for these businesses outside Europe?

As above, but its up to business to identify and exploit those opportunities

CivicDuties said:

These are the exam questions in the context of "was Brexit worth it".

For you, yes these are the exam questions, because that's how you want to see things - everything you frame is intended to bolster your position, so you take simplistic views based on demanding answers to questions that don't actually address the nuances of what is actually the case.
You see ANY increase in complexity in our trade with the EU, however minor, as something terrible that wipes out any potential benefit. You also have this somewhat bizarre view that anyone that disagrees with you must answer your (loaded) questions - frankly they don't have to do that, and not doing so doesn't make them wrong or you right.

CivicDuties said:

Because for us to have made this backwards step, it must have been done to take forward steps which will lead to a net benefit. What are those, and where are they and what do they amount to? How do the balance against the losses incurred?

See above! I'm not trying to pick a fight on a friday evening, but people aren't really going to engage with the kind of stuff above because, in all sincerity, it's abundantly clear that nothing would cause you to rethink your position, so why should people bother to engage?

It's something of a pattern with you: You sneer at and insult people who voted Brexit, but complain and become indignant when you feel you've been slighted yourself. You demand that people concede that they were wrong about Brexit before you will consider their points, but refuse to consider that you yourself might not be right. You frame arguments in terms entirely based to your world view and then complain when others won't engage in a way that satisfies you. You're not alone in these behaviours, so please don't take it entirely personally.

CivicDuties said:

I'd suggest the answer to all of those points is negative.

We know you would! Anyway, have a good weekend

[Mortarboard]

Why has none of the following been done?

first page of this thread said:

So what should the UK do?
Well first up, the administrative stuff that is still ongoing due to brexit. This alone is causing damage to the UK - whether some folk want to accept it or not. Its a fact. Such as:
-Get the border & customs changes complete. The fact that this was neither planned for nor resourced is almost criminal. It was known as soon as the vote was tallied that there would be major changes to the customs/border in all possible scenarios - with the exception of BRINO. There's been two elections since the vote, and this fundamental change still hasn't been dealt with. It's causing far more damage to both imports and exports than the costs of fixing the underlying issues
-Actually get on with the EU deal. Every other country can see how it's being drawn out. It's not a good look when you're trying to do deals internationally
-Fix the immigration issues. The UK currently looks hostile to immigrants. The UK is going to need an influx of skills of various types, like it or lump it. It's actively being a turn off at present. The attitude that thousands are coming across the channel in rubber boats means that the UK is the promised land? That's got to change.
-Stop the political point making that's costing the UK in cold hard cash. UKCA & UK Reach are completely superfluous and of absolutely no benefit to the UK.

All of those should be addressed immediately, even if it means borrowing in order to do so. It's never going to get any cheaper, and is costing UK dearly on a daily basis.

Looking forward, there are many areas where the UK can start taking advantage of the ability to do things differently (primarily when compared to the EU - lets face it, that's where the biggest deviations can be implemented)
-Farming. Fundamental changes will be needed from the EU "subsidise in the name of the environment" approach. Small farms may have the opportunity to go the route of craft/finer foods. Large farms will need to go more the "Agri PLC" route. Unfortunately, mid-size farms will likely loose out - but these seemed to be gaining no ground in the EU environment either.
-Pharma. Outside of the EU regulatory regime, the UK is going to face significant headwinds for retail drugs or any volume. There will still be opportunities for specialty drugs etc. However, a huge opportunity exists for API (active pharmaceutical ingredients). Huge amounts of these are simply bulk materials from places like india & china, processed and purified using validated using GMP (good manufacturing process - basically "pharma-lite"). There are also opportunities to manufacture other internationally regulated materials such as diagnostic materials (ISO13485 etc)
-Engineering. The UK has always been known for this. Time to start leveraging that from 2nd level and up.
-R&D of various types. Essentially a borderless industry.
-Tourism/ The UK offers much of what the rest of europe has, but now things like vat free shopping, and other schemes should be leveraged to the max. Plus there's no shortage or UK specific draws too.

?

M.

[StevieBee]

crankedup5 said:

StevieB thanks for taking the time to lay out your perspective of brexit, however you do seem to bypass the negatives of membership of the EU and blame any such things onto U.K. media.

My response was an answer to your question:

crankedup5 said:

Why was it that the ‘Remain campaign’ was unable to convince the majority of those who took an active interest in the issue that to leave the EU would be a negative outcome?

But happy to expand on this.

Brexit was not about choosing the best option, but the least-worse.

I think there is the assumption amongst many Brexiteers that remain voters are 'fans' of the EU in the same way that one might be a fan of a particular football club. I really do not believe this to be the case at all. It is indeed possible to find much negativity on all aspects of the EU. I've worked in around EU institutions for 20 years or more and can write a book on its glacial speed, tedious bureaucracy, and more.

But, there are always two sides to the story and when you examine many of these negativities, you find good intent, poorly executed and great opportunity as yet unfulfilled. The advantage of membership is (or was) that it was possible for the UK to influence change so that these potentials could be fully realised. And even if that wasn't the case, it was still possible to look at the whole and deduce that despite the negatives, the net outcome of membership was positive.

The press failed to provide counter examination of the negative aspects of membership and the evidence supporting the claim for collective benefit.

There's a wonderful analogy in this short advert from 1986:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3WDDVWaW9w

The press position the EU as the skinhead in the first and second view and leave it as that. It is upon this that opinions are formed. Those with the drive for additional insight hang around to the the third view which presents the actuality of the EU.

I believe that had everyone been given the opportunity to see the entire advert but the outcome was the same, I don't believe we'd even be talking about it any more. But as it is, a very large number of business and individuals have had their lives made unnecessarily more difficult and expensive because of the opinions and beliefs of slightly more people, being based upon misinformation, no information or lies with next to zero tangible or meaningful benefit having yet been realised.

[Vanden Saab]

StevieBee said:

crankedup5 said:

StevieB thanks for taking the time to lay out your perspective of brexit, however you do seem to bypass the negatives of membership of the EU and blame any such things onto U.K. media.

My response was an answer to your question:

crankedup5 said:

Why was it that the ‘Remain campaign’ was unable to convince the majority of those who took an active interest in the issue that to leave the EU would be a negative outcome?

But happy to expand on this.

Brexit was not about choosing the best option, but the least-worse.

I think there is the assumption amongst many Brexiteers that remain voters are 'fans' of the EU in the same way that one might be a fan of a particular football club. I really do not believe this to be the case at all. It is indeed possible to find much negativity on all aspects of the EU. I've worked in around EU institutions for 20 years or more and can write a book on its glacial speed, tedious bureaucracy, and more.

But, there are always two sides to the story and when you examine many of these negativities, you find good intent, poorly executed and great opportunity as yet unfulfilled. The advantage of membership is (or was) that it was possible for the UK to influence change so that these potentials could be fully realised. And even if that wasn't the case, it was still possible to look at the whole and deduce that despite the negatives, the net outcome of membership was positive.

The press failed to provide counter examination of the negative aspects of membership and the evidence supporting the claim for collective benefit.

There's a wonderful analogy in this short advert from 1986:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3WDDVWaW9w

The press position the EU as the skinhead in the first and second view and leave it as that. It is upon this that opinions are formed. Those with the drive for additional insight hang around to the the third view which presents the actuality of the EU.

I believe that had everyone been given the opportunity to see the entire advert but the outcome was the same, I don't believe we'd even be talking about it any more. But as it is, a very large number of business and individuals have had their lives made unnecessarily more difficult and expensive because of the opinions and beliefs of slightly more people, being based upon misinformation, no information or lies with next to zero tangible or meaningful benefit having yet been realised.

Not really, only 2% (122,000) of all UK companies only import or export to the EU. Another 2% import and export to both the EU and the RoW so would already have the correct procedures in place. The numbers involved are really not large compared to the total number of companies.
Unsurprisingly the number of companies importing and exporting to the EU increased in 2022. I say unsurprisingly as whatever Brexit haters tell you is the truth is normally the complete opposite.

[Skeptisk]

Vanden Saab said:

Not really, only 2% (122,000) of all UK companies only import or export to the EU. Another 2% import and export to both the EU and the RoW so would already have the correct procedures in place. The numbers involved are really not large compared to the total number of companies.
Unsurprisingly the number of companies importing and exporting to the EU increased in 2022. I say unsurprisingly as whatever Brexit haters tell you is the truth is normally the complete opposite.

What percentage of GDP and what percentage of the working population are directly or indirectly employed by those 244,000 companies? I am guessing it is rather more than 4%.

[Skeptisk]

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/business-...

The 260,000 businesses with more than 10 employees represent just 4.4% of all businesses but account for 70% of all private sector employees.

[cheesejunkie]

I love statistics and their manipulation.

Vaanden Saabs sounded wrong to me.

There are actually things like OBR reports (famously disliked by Truss) out there where we can check the numbers.

The word “only” is doing a lot of work for you there Saab and not making your case.

[Skeptisk]

cheesejunkie said:

I love statistics and their manipulation.

Vaanden Saabs sounded wrong to me.

There are actually things like OBR reports (famously disliked by Truss) out there where we can check the numbers.

The word “only” is doing a lot of work for you there Saab and not making your case.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

The problem is that many people on here are generally (mis)using statistics to try to support or prove a view they hold for ideological reasons, so they are not actually interested in the truth of the point being discussed.

[cheesejunkie]

Skeptisk said:

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

The problem is that many people on here are generally (mis)using statistics to try to support or prove a view they hold for ideological reasons, so they are not actually interested in the truth of the point being discussed.

Agreed, our company trades internationally. Almost exclusively EU and N America but a few others too if we get a good offer. By that statistical measure we’re not a company that only imports and exports from the EU. “Only” is doing the lifting in Saabs abuse of statistics. We still do trade with the EU and wouldn’t fit into the “only” statistic.

[Vanden Saab]

cheesejunkie said:

I love statistics and their manipulation.

Vaanden Saabs sounded wrong to me.

There are actually things like OBR reports (famously disliked by Truss) out there where we can check the numbers.

The word “only” is doing a lot of work for you there Saab and not making your case.

So do I, as I was actually replying to this.
a very large number of business and individuals have had their lives made unnecessarily more difficult and expensive because of the opinions and beliefs of slightly more people,
It makes my case perfectly unless you think 2% is a very large number.

[Mortarboard]

Is 33.34% a big number?
Because that how much of the UK economy is from exports alone.

Now factor in how much of the uk economy is reliant on imports.

M.

[Vanden Saab]

I said:

So do I, as I was actually replying to this.
a very large number of business and individuals have had their lives made unnecessarily more difficult and expensive because of the opinions and beliefs of slightly more people,
It makes my case perfectly unless you think 2% is a very large number.

Mortarboard said:

Is 33.34% a big number?
Because that how much of the UK economy is from exports alone.

Now factor in how much of the uk economy is reliant on imports.

M.

Leaving out my post and trying to conflate to other figures how utterly predictable.

The point













You

And 33% is not just goods exports to the EU or even goods exports and imports is it. At least try to be accurate with your figures it make you look a bit shady if you do not.

[sugerbear]

"Ireland reaps €700m Brexit bonanza from customs duties - Dublin records near-doubling of tax revenue from duties on imports of clothing, food and other goods from Great Britain" - headline in the Gruniard today.

Another brexit win for someone else.

[Mortarboard]

Vanden Saab said:

And 33% is not just goods exports to the EU or even goods exports and imports is it. At least try to be accurate with your figures it make you look a bit shady if you do not.

The uk only has one border you loon.

Call me shady all you like. You'd still be wong.

M.

[732NM]

sugerbear said:

"Ireland reaps €700m Brexit bonanza from customs duties - Dublin records near-doubling of tax revenue from duties on imports of clothing, food and other goods from Great Britain" - headline in the Gruniard today.

Another brexit win for someone else.

The Irish consumer is paying that. Maybe the EU should reduce their import duties so the Irish consumer is better off.

[CivicDuties]

andymadmak said:

CivicDuties said:

Fair enough response, andymadmak. However. Is it easier/cheaper now than before Brexit?

It's more difficult. Not as difficult as it used to be, not as simple as it had got to, but equally, its not THAT horrid either (based on conversations I have had with ex colleagues who are still in the trade) In absolutist terms you win on the "more difficult" point. In relative terms though its mostly a nothing burger.

CivicDuties said:

Is the new system delivering any opportunities for UK businesses since Brexit, what are those and what are the quantifiable results?

The system is the system, its not intended to deliver opportunities per se so I'm afraid this question is a bit loaded imho

CivicDuties said:

Is it delivering an increase or reduction in net business benefits to the UK?

As above, plus you'd need to define more tightly what you mean by net business benefits. It could indeed bring benefits for trade with countries that are not aligned with the EU for example.

CivicDuties said:

Is the implementation of this regime opening up opportunities for these businesses outside Europe?

As above, but its up to business to identify and exploit those opportunities

CivicDuties said:

These are the exam questions in the context of "was Brexit worth it".

For you, yes these are the exam questions, because that's how you want to see things - everything you frame is intended to bolster your position, so you take simplistic views based on demanding answers to questions that don't actually address the nuances of what is actually the case.
You see ANY increase in complexity in our trade with the EU, however minor, as something terrible that wipes out any potential benefit. You also have this somewhat bizarre view that anyone that disagrees with you must answer your (loaded) questions - frankly they don't have to do that, and not doing so doesn't make them wrong or you right.

CivicDuties said:

Because for us to have made this backwards step, it must have been done to take forward steps which will lead to a net benefit. What are those, and where are they and what do they amount to? How do the balance against the losses incurred?

See above! I'm not trying to pick a fight on a friday evening, but people aren't really going to engage with the kind of stuff above because, in all sincerity, it's abundantly clear that nothing would cause you to rethink your position, so why should people bother to engage?

It's something of a pattern with you: You sneer at and insult people who voted Brexit, but complain and become indignant when you feel you've been slighted yourself. You demand that people concede that they were wrong about Brexit before you will consider their points, but refuse to consider that you yourself might not be right. You frame arguments in terms entirely based to your world view and then complain when others won't engage in a way that satisfies you. You're not alone in these behaviours, so please don't take it entirely personally.

CivicDuties said:

I'd suggest the answer to all of those points is negative.

We know you would! Anyway, have a good weekend

I hope you had a good weekend too, I started mine a bit early.

I'll struggle a bit with all your answers, as they always seem to be semantic, rather than ever provide any tangible evidence of any Brexit benefits. Which is rather the point of this thread. Was it worth it? No, it doesn't appear to have been, is the only logical answer at the moment.

And given the above comment, it's entirely unfair to attempt to characterise me, or anyone as closed minded. I want to find the Brexit benefits, I'd love for there to be some, I'd love to be able to come out and say, "blimey, I was wrong, look at all this evidence". As I said, I've swung from Leave to Remain before the referendum, I'm perfectly capable of swinging the other way - when the facts and evidence point that way. This is because I want my country to succeed, because I'm probably going to spend the rest of my life here, and I've got children who may well do so as well. I want the best for us, and I can't see it coming at the moment. Faith and slogans aren't cutting it.

As for me being a bit withering and sarcastic in the way I write - well, mea culpa. It's really hard not to be due to absolute lack of any real evidence that Brexit was a good idea so far. A few good things are out there, but there is such a gap between the effect of those and the negative effects of Brexit still, that it frustrates me that people cant see it. All you seem to be able to say in your answers here is "well it's not as bad as it could be". That's not good enough to win me over. And as for the recent insinuation, which I have to take to mean that for some reason Van den Saab thinks I'm some kind of sex case, and he is not withdrawing the insinuation, well that's so far beyond any withering sarcasm I might deploy that it's hardly a fair comparison. See also Murph's "st parenting" jibe some time ago. Utterly personal, utterly below the belt, beyond reasonable realms of adult discussion, and made without a single iota of knowledge about me other than "Muh, look at the Remoaner". We are still in the realms of "you lost, get over it" as justification for the situation today. I'd still like apologies and retractions from Murph and Saab, I'm 99% certain they'll never come because all anyone ever seems to do these days is double down on their nonsense.

[Deesee]

732NM said:

sugerbear said:

"Ireland reaps €700m Brexit bonanza from customs duties - Dublin records near-doubling of tax revenue from duties on imports of clothing, food and other goods from Great Britain" - headline in the Gruniard today.

Another brexit win for someone else.

The Irish consumer is paying that. Maybe the EU should reduce their import duties so the Irish consumer is better off.

Irish Gov gets 25% of that EU 75%.

Most of these Tax revenues are from goods of not preferable origin, ie Clothing made in China/India..

UK now responsible for half of Irelands customs revenue due to the fact goods are held here for a short time warehoused.

If they were made in the EU or UK no Tariff..

EU needs to restore some factory's in the Southern States....

& Ireland no longer in recession as of this morning..

[anonymous-user]

I seem to remember some bleating about the London Stock Exchange a couple pages back. What was that about again?

[Murph7355]

Deesee said:

732NM said:

sugerbear said:

"Ireland reaps €700m Brexit bonanza from customs duties - Dublin records near-doubling of tax revenue from duties on imports of clothing, food and other goods from Great Britain" - headline in the Gruniard today.

Another brexit win for someone else.

The Irish consumer is paying that. Maybe the EU should reduce their import duties so the Irish consumer is better off.

Irish Gov gets 25% of that EU 75%.

Most of these Tax revenues are from goods of not preferable origin, ie Clothing made in China/India..

UK now responsible for half of Irelands customs revenue due to the fact goods are held here for a short time warehoused.

If they were made in the EU or UK no Tariff..

EU needs to restore some factory's in the Southern States....

& Ireland no longer in recession as of this morning..

It's still the Irish consumer paying it.

And iirc Brexit wasn't really about them. They make their own choices.