Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[Digga]

SlimJim16v said:

Cheib said:

Had to be a “when not if” the Airbus and Boeing planes in Russia can’t fly because of spares. I’d think like aircraft parts won’t be able to come in via the black market…..and you wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the technicians that did service the aircraft were foreign nationals.

I believe the sanctions on aircraft parts were dropped because of money safety concerns.

Edited by SlimJim16v on Saturday 28th January 20:51

Not sure where planes taking off from Russia are allowed to fly to but perhaps you are right. I hope not though.

[B'stard Child]

Scrump said:

BrettMRC said:

1000 page limit now then?

20k post limit.
We tried unlimited but an earlier volume of this thread experienced glitches around 30k posts, so new volume limit at 20k posts (used to be 10k posts).

Completely screwed my database on long running threads - I need to factor in the max page/posts change and I can't be bothered

[Solocle]

Recommended by the Youtube algorithm, an interesting insight into the modernisation efforts of Ukraine on their Soviet tanks from December 2019.

[Biggy Stardust]

Digga said:

Not sure where planes taking off from Russia are allowed to fly to but perhaps you are right. I hope not though.

Moscow, St Pete's, Vladivostock.....................................

[Charlie1986]

Looks like Iran has been attacked this evening -
They are blaming Ukraine

[stemll]

Yertis said:

AlexIT said:

Sanctions biting or no?

S7 grounds its A320neo aircrafts.
Officially it's due to planned maintenance ahead of the summer season, nevertheless...

https://simpleflying.com/s7-airlines-denies-ground...

You lost me at ‘aircrafts’.

It's also 321neo that they have "grounded" they are flying the 320neo instead

[GT03ROB]

Digga said:

SlimJim16v said:

Cheib said:

Had to be a “when not if” the Airbus and Boeing planes in Russia can’t fly because of spares. I’d think like aircraft parts won’t be able to come in via the black market…..and you wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the technicians that did service the aircraft were foreign nationals.

I believe the sanctions on aircraft parts were dropped because of money safety concerns.

Edited by SlimJim16v on Saturday 28th January 20:51

Not sure where planes taking off from Russia are allowed to fly to but perhaps you are right. I hope not though.

A lot more places than you would think! The majority of flights by Russian airlines has always been domestic rather than international,

Tthe restrictions on spares are still in place.

[Pupp]

Charlie1986 said:

Looks like Iran has been attacked this evening -
They are blaming Ukraine

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/drone-attack-hits-iran-ammunition-factory-reports

[spookly]

BrettMRC said:

Scrump said:

BrettMRC said:

1000 page limit now then?

20k post limit.
We tried unlimited but an earlier volume of this thread experienced glitches around 30k posts, so new volume limit at 20k posts (used to be 10k posts).

Cool - thanks

Need to move off the russian forum software.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Pupp said:

Charlie1986 said:

Looks like Iran has been attacked this evening -
They are blaming Ukraine

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/drone-attack-hits-iran-ammunition-factory-reports

I'm skeptical that this would be Ukraine directly. Might be people within Iran who wanted to hinder the drone supplies to Russia - but, even then, aren't the Iranian drones that go to Russia built in Syria?

Just seems utterly implausible.

[HM-2]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Pupp said:

Charlie1986 said:

Looks like Iran has been attacked this evening -
They are blaming Ukraine

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/drone-attack-hits-iran-ammunition-factory-reports

I'm skeptical that this would be Ukraine directly. Might be people within Iran who wanted to hinder the drone supplies to Russia - but, even then, aren't the Iranian drones that go to Russia built in Syria?

Just seems utterly implausible.

It's very implausible. It'll almost definitely be Israel, they blow stuff up in Iran at fairly regular intervals.

[paua]

HM-2 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Pupp said:

Charlie1986 said:

Looks like Iran has been attacked this evening -
They are blaming Ukraine

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/drone-attack-hits-iran-ammunition-factory-reports

I'm skeptical that this would be Ukraine directly. Might be people within Iran who wanted to hinder the drone supplies to Russia - but, even then, aren't the Iranian drones that go to Russia built in Syria?

Just seems utterly implausible.

It's very implausible. It'll almost definitely be Israel, they blow stuff up in Iran at fairly regular intervals.

Agreed. Perhaps, blaming Ukr absolves them having to point a finger ( & respond) at Israel?

[Digga]

GT03ROB said:

Digga said:

SlimJim16v said:

Cheib said:

Had to be a “when not if” the Airbus and Boeing planes in Russia can’t fly because of spares. I’d think like aircraft parts won’t be able to come in via the black market…..and you wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the technicians that did service the aircraft were foreign nationals.

I believe the sanctions on aircraft parts were dropped because of money safety concerns.

Edited by SlimJim16v on Saturday 28th January 20:51

Not sure where planes taking off from Russia are allowed to fly to but perhaps you are right. I hope not though.

A lot more places than you would think! The majority of flights by Russian airlines has always been domestic rather than international,

Tthe restrictions on spares are still in place.

That confirms what I thought.

In which case we will likely see both an increase in failures/unplanned stops or even aircraft losses.

[BikeBikeBIke]

paua said:

HM-2 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Pupp said:

Charlie1986 said:

Looks like Iran has been attacked this evening -
They are blaming Ukraine

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/29/drone-attack-hits-iran-ammunition-factory-reports

I'm skeptical that this would be Ukraine directly. Might be people within Iran who wanted to hinder the drone supplies to Russia - but, even then, aren't the Iranian drones that go to Russia built in Syria?

Just seems utterly implausible.

It's very implausible. It'll almost definitely be Israel, they blow stuff up in Iran at fairly regular intervals.

Agreed. Perhaps, blaming Ukr absolves them having to point a finger ( & respond) at Israel?

If it was totally unsuccessful I'd say it not even likely to be Israel. Local Iranian opposition or maybe even a false flag?

[McGee_22]

BikeBikeBIke said:

If it was totally unsuccessful I'd say it not even likely to be Israel. Local Iranian opposition or maybe even a false flag?

This - don’t rule out Putin being behind this - escalate and widen the conflict to destabilise support for Ukraine.

[sisu]

Israel have a very large Russian population there, 1.3m or 13% are ethnic Russians. Who are still flying regularly to Russia, if not for holidays at least as a layover at the moment. They had an Oy Vey moment when they told Ukraine they are not sending the mothballed American air defence equipment, but they have a heavy dependence on US Military.
Would someone have killed a bunch of people on Holocaust memorial in Israel and not got a response?
Iran has been making money quite openly from the Russian war in Ukraine and this might be out of reach for Ukraine. But Israel knows that other countries who do not like Israel see that this carpet bombing with drones is expensive to take out with stingers if you can mass produce them.

So taking out the factory that makes them sends a clear message.

[BikeBikeBIke]

sisu said:

So taking out the factory that makes them sends a clear message.

I'd agree, but by all accounts the factory wasn't taken out, it was ineffectively damaged, which makes Israel less likely IMHO. (Of course, Iran might be lying about the damage.)

[sisu]

If it isn't burnt to the ground then yes, it was ineffective. Damaged, but repairable at this moment.

[sisu]

The reform of the Russian military that has been proposed by Putin for 2026 as I think someone has given him a breakdown of how long it takes to build an Army in world of Tanks.
Considering it costs €75,000 to fully equip a soldier the idea that you just make an army of 1.5 million men ready to take on the West will be a huge strain on the finances of the Kremlin. The current push to train 350,000 unmotivated recruits for Summer this year is ambitious because they have restrictions now. The plan from Putin is that the Moscow and St Petersburg divisions are strengthened in the Karilla area and the border with Belarus.
To me this sounds like a soft landing for the failure in Ukraine and they need this 1.5 million men to defend Russia rather than a push into Ukraine to take Kyiv.
We need to take your savings and give you war bonds etc because NATO is coming.

[Cheib]

sisu said:

Israel have a very large Russian population there, 1.3m or 13% are ethnic Russians. Who are still flying regularly to Russia, if not for holidays at least as a layover at the moment. They had an Oy Vey moment when they told Ukraine they are not sending the mothballed American air defence equipment, but they have a heavy dependence on US Military.
Would someone have killed a bunch of people on Holocaust memorial in Israel and not got a response?
Iran has been making money quite openly from the Russian war in Ukraine and this might be out of reach for Ukraine. But Israel knows that other countries who do not like Israel see that this carpet bombing with drones is expensive to take out with stingers if you can mass produce them.

So taking out the factory that makes them sends a clear message.

The reason there is a large Russian population in Israel is because there is a large Jewish population in Russia. There is an agreement which allows them to move to Israel relatively easily, Israel apparently is sensitive to that. I think there is also something about Israel using Syrian airspace which Russia controls.

It seems lots of countries are taking something out of Putin’s “plausible deniability” play book.