Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5
Discussion
isaldiri said:
There were a couple of articles stating that the russians had some success in jamming gps signals on MLRS rockets (obviously doesn't change the inertial navigation dialled in) - would have thought that the yanks might have something available that could do the same on these jdam (more or less?) russian equivalents?
I'm sure the Russians are also using inertial navigation. Even your phone with a few MEMS accelerometers can do inertial nav, combined with magnetic compass. And Russia isn't bothered by pinpoint accuracy, an error of 100m with a 1000kg category bomb is plenty big enough.paulrockliffe said:
The problem is that the range on those bombs means they can be launched from Russia and Ukraine isn't allowed to use Patriot to attack targets in Russia, because Jake Sullivan is an idiot.
In attacking Kharkiv, yes that's the case. 40-60km range. You can throw a JDAM (which is a guidance kit strapped to a dumb bomb) circa 30km, so there's nothing particularly clever about what Russia have done.Wonder how many men Russia can call on still ?
Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
Bathroom_Security said:
The general message I'm seeing on social media is that Russia is advancing again and its looking pretty dire for Ukraine, is that the case?
No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.
Would love to see some positive news
You should not read too much of the Russian social media posts. They aren't all true....No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.
Would love to see some positive news
J4CKO said:
Wonder how many men Russia can call on still ?
Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
The only problem with that is that they are using lots of mercenaries from poor countries aligned with Russia - there was a post on it a few pages back. Yes, Russia is creating a demographic problem for itself but a large number of those being fed into the meat grinder are not actually Russian. Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
Adam. said:
BrettMRC said:
Interesting BBC article on the Russian glide bombing campaign:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko
You would think the launch aircraft are quite vulnerable in the release phase, so could they can be identified and attacked with long range SAMs?
How many seconds is their release phase vs SAM time to locate, fire and reach target?https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko
You would think the launch aircraft are quite vulnerable in the release phase, so could they can be identified and attacked with long range SAMs?
The issue is that firstly the Ukrainians don't have that many systems to share and secondly it puts the launcher into a space where it could be spotted by observation drones and targeted by ballistic missiles.
Potentially with F16 the aircraft can spot the ground attack aircraft and then direct a ground launched SAM onto it. Whether the F16's Ukraine get can do this is another matter, though again this would be a good place for NATO allies to provide covert technical support.
Bathroom_Security said:
The general message I'm seeing on social media is that Russia is advancing again and its looking pretty dire for Ukraine, is that the case?
No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.
Would love to see some positive news
Divide the Russian gains by casualties and the multiply by Ukraine's area. The Russians will run out of people before they take over Ukraine.No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.
Would love to see some positive news
The Germans last advanced in WWI in 1918, the battle of the Bulge (a German mass attack) was in the last 6 months of WWII.
In hindsight we know that WWII was over for Germany in 1943 and that they'd have been nuked in 1945 if they hadn't surrendered. But for the people involved it often looked desperate and that the Germans could win.
Russia lost on day 4 of the invasion.
TriumphStag3.0V8 said:
J4CKO said:
Wonder how many men Russia can call on still ?
Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
The only problem with that is that they are using lots of mercenaries from poor countries aligned with Russia - there was a post on it a few pages back. Yes, Russia is creating a demographic problem for itself but a large number of those being fed into the meat grinder are not actually Russian. Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
Anyway, the point is that yes, there is a larger population to draw from, but its not as big as you might think. Russia has been facing a massive decline in its demographics before this even started and in order to turn it around, there are some who indicated that this was a justification to invade Ukraine - add to the population and improve the demographics. I doubt it was the 'reason' but I am sure it came into the argument somewhere.
The issue is that if you kill off a certain percentage of key age people in your population, you cant simply replace them and the ripple effect flows as the population ages. Eliminating 1-2M of the Russian male population might not seem much when compared with the 140m population - but its the disproportionate effect though. Most people have children before they are 40, and the majority are 25-35. Of those, you need to add in social situation and ability to have children. A few percentage points drop here means that there isnt the tax payer base to pay for those same 25-35 year olds when they hit 65 or more. And the whole population starts a death spiral! This can lead to a crash and its impossible to recover from it.
While its not the best resource, the Wikipedia page does have a nice graphic showing the ripple effect:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russ...
And Russia suffered back when they had their financial crisis (multiple times). That put a hole in the population and its happening again. The educated professional Russians between 25-35 left the country (estimated to be 1m in total!), adds to the issue - if these people have children, they are likely to stay where they are, permanently leaving the country. However, they are far less likely to have children, even if they return (because its a hellhole) and hey presto, population collapse again!
We in the west complain about declining birth rates and an aging population - Russia has it way worse. They are facing a massive decline in their economy. I havent read this in full, but it makes very worrying reading for Russia:
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russian-eco...
And lets not even entertain the possibility for the Russian Federation to split and they lose even more population? Yikes.
Talksteer said:
Bathroom_Security said:
The general message I'm seeing on social media is that Russia is advancing again and its looking pretty dire for Ukraine, is that the case?
No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.
Would love to see some positive news
Divide the Russian gains by casualties and the multiply by Ukraine's area. The Russians will run out of people before they take over Ukraine.No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.
Would love to see some positive news
The Germans last advanced in WWI in 1918, the battle of the Bulge (a German mass attack) was in the last 6 months of WWII.
In hindsight we know that WWII was over for Germany in 1943 and that they'd have been nuked in 1945 if they hadn't surrendered. But for the people involved it often looked desperate and that the Germans could win.
Russia lost on day 4 of the invasion.
off_again said:
We in the west complain about declining birth rates and an aging population - Russia has it way worse. They are facing a massive decline in their economy. I havent read this in full, but it makes very worrying reading for Russia:
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russian-eco...
And lets not even entertain the possibility for the Russian Federation to split and they lose even more population? Yikes.
Fascinating how even nearly a decade ago experts could see the population crisis coming and since then Russia has absolutely torpedoed the most optimistic solution projections with this insane war.https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russian-eco...
And lets not even entertain the possibility for the Russian Federation to split and they lose even more population? Yikes.
TriumphStag3.0V8 said:
J4CKO said:
Wonder how many men Russia can call on still ?
Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
The only problem with that is that they are using lots of mercenaries from poor countries aligned with Russia - there was a post on it a few pages back. Yes, Russia is creating a demographic problem for itself but a large number of those being fed into the meat grinder are not actually Russian. Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
Edited by cliffords on Tuesday 21st May 07:42
cliffords said:
The Institute of War Studies did a report at the end of last year . It concluded actual pool of Russian fighting age men was about 25 million. I don't recall exactly but it was 19 to 55 years I think .
Yeah, but you also need to bear in mind that that isn't people sat around waiting for a war to fight. They are all doing productive things in the economy, they're the Russians with specialist knowledge in their oil, gas, mining sectors. They're also the people running criminal gangs and the mafia state and they're the people stopping it kicking off all around Russia's border.Edited by cliffords on Tuesday 21st May 07:42
So there's a cost to sending any of those people to die in Ukraine, whether it's direct economic cost, reduced influence elsewhere or the country descending into gang warfare. 1,400 of them died yesterday.
The optimist in me likes to think there's actually a long-term plan behind the de-escalation nonsense, bleed Russia for long enough then wait 20 years and it'll no longer be a nuclear state. Then it can be properly contained for the long-term. In reality what we'll get is a defeat, but not quite enough to adequately contain them, then decades of Skripal-type revenge attacks on the West.
paulrockliffe said:
cliffords said:
The Institute of War Studies did a report at the end of last year . It concluded actual pool of Russian fighting age men was about 25 million. I don't recall exactly but it was 19 to 55 years I think .
Yeah, but you also need to bear in mind that that isn't people sat around waiting for a war to fight. They are all doing productive things in the economy, they're the Russians with specialist knowledge in their oil, gas, mining sectors. They're also the people running criminal gangs and the mafia state and they're the people stopping it kicking off all around Russia's border.Edited by cliffords on Tuesday 21st May 07:42
So there's a cost to sending any of those people to die in Ukraine, whether it's direct economic cost, reduced influence elsewhere or the country descending into gang warfare. 1,400 of them died yesterday.
The optimist in me likes to think there's actually a long-term plan behind the de-escalation nonsense, bleed Russia for long enough then wait 20 years and it'll no longer be a nuclear state. Then it can be properly contained for the long-term. In reality what we'll get is a defeat, but not quite enough to adequately contain them, then decades of Skripal-type revenge attacks on the West.
Are these numbers we keep hearing of 1000 to 2000 dead a day true ?
Looks like another boat hit
https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/ru...
Looks like another boat hit
https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/ru...
Edited by J4CKO on Tuesday 21st May 10:14
Speaking to my Russian friends, there is a definite change in the wind when it comes to the war as this has been Ukraine at its weakest. As has been pointed out, even with the battle of the Bulge example. That was a thrust into a strategic area or supply line. No one, not even the Russians have successfully pushed a 640km front and made gains on defensive positions.
This Winter/Spring was supposed to be where they made gains, not just a small town and a field. Even the Russians don't have endless Soviet stuff and as people have pointed out, this year is maximum effort. Everything is being thrown on to the fire both economically and demographically. The problem is where their opponent is at the moment, they are striking oil refineries and Xi is waiting as well.
Its going to be a rocky road next month as the Ukrainians will look to make a thrust at Crimea and this combined with depth into Russia in the South will make the Kremlin have to act, but they don't have Battalions in formation or behind. The Gun run to Moscow showed how thin things are.
This Winter/Spring was supposed to be where they made gains, not just a small town and a field. Even the Russians don't have endless Soviet stuff and as people have pointed out, this year is maximum effort. Everything is being thrown on to the fire both economically and demographically. The problem is where their opponent is at the moment, they are striking oil refineries and Xi is waiting as well.
Its going to be a rocky road next month as the Ukrainians will look to make a thrust at Crimea and this combined with depth into Russia in the South will make the Kremlin have to act, but they don't have Battalions in formation or behind. The Gun run to Moscow showed how thin things are.
cliffords said:
TriumphStag3.0V8 said:
J4CKO said:
Wonder how many men Russia can call on still ?
Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
The only problem with that is that they are using lots of mercenaries from poor countries aligned with Russia - there was a post on it a few pages back. Yes, Russia is creating a demographic problem for itself but a large number of those being fed into the meat grinder are not actually Russian. Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.
So take off fifty percent females (likely more)
Take off those already dead/maimed/in service
Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.
Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.
That off those who are “connected”
Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?
Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?
Edited by cliffords on Tuesday 21st May 07:42
That's why I'm pleased to see the extra support given in terms of equipment but mainly the USA's agreement to let them hit Russian targets across the border with US weapons.
sisu said:
Speaking to my Russian friends, there is a definite change in the wind when it comes to the war as this has been Ukraine at its weakest. As has been pointed out, even with the battle of the Bulge example. That was a thrust into a strategic area or supply line. No one, not even the Russians have successfully pushed a 640km front and made gains on defensive positions.
I’d argue Operation Bagration was a successful huge fronted assault by the Russians. However, the current lot certainly aren’t capable of this again.https://the-past.com/feature/operation-bagration/#...
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