Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

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Discussion

blueST

4,630 posts

230 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
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TameRacingDriver said:
I seem to see everything from 150K losses to 700K+ losses for the Russians depending where you read it, so which is it?
The higher figure is killed, wounded, captured etc, the 150k is probably the estimate of just the killed?

hairykrishna

13,957 posts

217 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
Sway said:
That's the missile, not the warheads. There's no gamechanger in manoeuvring up there, as it doesn't materially change interceptability.

The warheads, the bit you really want to be able to shift, dodge and confuse, are too small and moving too fast in a thick atmosphere surrounded by plasma for them to have any meaningful delta v capability with our current means of propulsion.
But we've had manoeuvrable warheads for decades? Pershing II for example.

BrettMRC

4,951 posts

174 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
hairykrishna said:
But we've had manoeuvrable warheads for decades? Pershing II for example.
Not generally maneuverable for evasive action at those speeds pre-impact though, otherwise you've no hope of hitting a target.

Sway

31,783 posts

208 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
hairykrishna said:
Sway said:
That's the missile, not the warheads. There's no gamechanger in manoeuvring up there, as it doesn't materially change interceptability.

The warheads, the bit you really want to be able to shift, dodge and confuse, are too small and moving too fast in a thick atmosphere surrounded by plasma for them to have any meaningful delta v capability with our current means of propulsion.
But we've had manoeuvrable warheads for decades? Pershing II for example.
They're larger, and limited as they significantly bleed off speed as they manoeuvre.

What we're talking about is the concept of true MIRV, which actively evade and target at hypersonic speeds. Not pre-programmed jinks at given points of re-entry, which was good enough for early ABM countermeasures (but still poorer than just having more warheads splitting out from the initial booster stages) but useless against modern ones.

borcy

7,474 posts

70 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
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Zelensky responds to lowering the age of conscription. Tldr, there's not enough weapons.


https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43097

pingu393

9,523 posts

219 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
The rebels are ripping through Syria.

Putin will have to either evacuate his troops and let Assad fall, or send more troops and dilute his Ukraine offensive.

The problems of being a dictator amongst dictators. The spinning plates are starting to wobble on their sticks.

BikeBikeBIke

11,609 posts

129 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
pingu393 said:
The rebels are ripping through Syria.

Putin will have to either evacuate his troops and let Assad fall, or send more troops and dilute his Ukraine offensive.

The problems of being a dictator amongst dictators. The spinning plates are starting to wobble on their sticks.
Trouble is, as bad as Assad is, I'm not convinced the other side are better.

Either way, sucks to be an Ally of Putin.

RichFN2

3,960 posts

193 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
BikeBikeBIke said:
pingu393 said:
The rebels are ripping through Syria.

Putin will have to either evacuate his troops and let Assad fall, or send more troops and dilute his Ukraine offensive.

The problems of being a dictator amongst dictators. The spinning plates are starting to wobble on their sticks.
Trouble is, as bad as Assad is, I'm not convinced the other side are better.

Either way, sucks to be an Ally of Putin.
They seem to be gaining momentum similar to the Taliban when they recaptured Afghanistan, Russian and Syrian jets have been bombing Aleppo but that hasn't slowed down the rebels pace.

What makes it more awkward is Turkey are backing the rebel fighters.

fourstardan

5,525 posts

158 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
Who was holding back the rebels in syria?

I'm not convinced the timing is not linked.

Have the west let it happen to drain every ounce of putins energy?

Or has putin pushed it to get more money from assad.

RichFN2

3,960 posts

193 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
fourstardan said:
Who was holding back the rebels in syria?

I'm not convinced the timing is not linked.

Have the west let it happen to drain every ounce of putins energy?

Or has putin pushed it to get more money from assad.
Assad's government forces, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

essayer

10,164 posts

208 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
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We’ll see them launching Storm Shadows soon wink

isaldiri

21,880 posts

182 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
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Digga said:
Yes, it’s going largely unnoticed in the media, given the magnitude of both the Ukraine and the present UK government’s clusterfkery, but the situation in Syria seems more dynamic. There are allegations the rebels are being funnelled from Turkey, which in and of itself if probably unsurprising.
It's a slightly ironic quirk of fate that the nasty country we don't like (Russia) has got distracted from being able to help out their ally (another nasty dictator we don't like, Assad) and that has resulted in the latter now coming under serious pressure from a bunch we really don't like (Isis and affiliates) who are...supported by one of our most important Nato allies (Turkey).....

Digga

43,240 posts

297 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
Digga said:
Yes, it’s going largely unnoticed in the media, given the magnitude of both the Ukraine and the present UK government’s clusterfkery, but the situation in Syria seems more dynamic. There are allegations the rebels are being funnelled from Turkey, which in and of itself if probably unsurprising.
It's a slightly ironic quirk of fate that the nasty country we don't like (Russia) has got distracted from being able to help out their ally (another nasty dictator we don't like, Assad) and that has resulted in the latter now coming under serious pressure from a bunch we really don't like (Isis and affiliates) who are...supported by one of our most important Nato allies (Turkey).....
Yes, although this:

BikeBikeBIke said:
Trouble is, as bad as Assad is, I'm not convinced the other side are better.

Either way, sucks to be an Ally of Putin.
The potential demise of Assad has shades of Hussein and Gaddafi about it. The potential for unintended consequences is high.

Cheib

24,428 posts

189 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
Digga said:
Yes, it’s going largely unnoticed in the media, given the magnitude of both the Ukraine and the present UK government’s clusterfkery, but the situation in Syria seems more dynamic. There are allegations the rebels are being funnelled from Turkey, which in and of itself if probably unsurprising.
It's a slightly ironic quirk of fate that the nasty country we don't like (Russia) has got distracted from being able to help out their ally (another nasty dictator we don't like, Assad) and that has resulted in the latter now coming under serious pressure from a bunch we really don't like (Isis and affiliates) who are...supported by one of our most important Nato allies (Turkey).....
I know very little about Syria apart from the obvious involvement of Russia etc.

From what I have read today about the fact that Assad’s main backers are Iran, Russia and Hezbollah you can see what now if a good time to strike. Will be very interesting to see how things develop. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin isn’t talking Assad’s calls.

BikeBikeBIke

11,609 posts

129 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
Digga said:
Yes, it’s going largely unnoticed in the media, given the magnitude of both the Ukraine and the present UK government’s clusterfkery, but the situation in Syria seems more dynamic. There are allegations the rebels are being funnelled from Turkey, which in and of itself if probably unsurprising.
It's a slightly ironic quirk of fate that the nasty country we don't like (Russia) has got distracted from being able to help out their ally (another nasty dictator we don't like, Assad) and that has resulted in the latter now coming under serious pressure from a bunch we really don't like (Isis and affiliates) who are...supported by one of our most important Nato allies (Turkey).....
And Iran are on Assad's side.

Complicated or what....

Hopefully Turkey won't want utter nutters on their border so maybe it will all be OK. Or maybe the logic is that Syria will now keep Iran busy.

bmwmike

7,773 posts

122 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
isaldiri said:
It's a slightly ironic quirk of fate that the nasty country we don't like (Russia) has got distracted from being able to help out their ally (another nasty dictator we don't like, Assad) and that has resulted in the latter now coming under serious pressure from a bunch we really don't like (Isis and affiliates) who are...supported by one of our most important Nato allies (Turkey).....
Turkey supports ISIS?

borcy

7,474 posts

70 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/186294689050279...

Talking of assad, rumours of a coup.

bristolracer

5,733 posts

163 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
borcy said:
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/186294689050279...

Talking of assad, rumours of a coup.
Just what the world needs
Another Middle East country going down the stter and another humanitarian catastrophe.

airbusA346

1,926 posts

167 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
bristolracer said:
Just what the world needs
Another Middle East country going down the stter and another humanitarian catastrophe.
It's being going down the censored since 2011.

W12GT

4,131 posts

235 months

Saturday 30th November 2024
quotequote all
bristolracer said:
borcy said:
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/186294689050279...

Talking of assad, rumours of a coup.
Just what the world needs
Another Middle East country going down the stter and another humanitarian catastrophe.
That happened years ago. Assad, his family and supporters deserve to face their fate. Barbarian who held control because Russia supported him.

If the coup is successful then I imagine many will follow suit. Maybe even Belarus….