Could Lucy Letby be innocent?

Author
Discussion

Petrus1983

10,135 posts

173 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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Rufus Stone said:
AdeTuono said:
12 people sat through a 10 month trial, were presented with all the evidence, and came to a guilty verdict.

What do you know that they don't?
Because juries have never made mistakes before.
Serious question. When things are so complex and medical related - does it make sense to pull 12 random people in to judge something so pivotal? I'd be clueless and easily led. I've dated dr's - it's a foreign language.

Super Sonic

8,401 posts

65 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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greygoose said:
I read an article the other day that she does fit the profile of female serial killers. The lack of action by the management may have lead to more victims being attacked by her but she was the one killing those babies.
I read the Guardian article, and the article it referenced is statistics based, but from a very small sample. It also states that female serial killers tend to work in "stereotypically feminine jobs" which, if not circular reasoning, Is tautological.
The management failings I was referring to were not 'failing to stop staff killing babies', they were for other failings that have led to infant deaths. There have been a few maternity wards been in the news for inadequate care lately, none have been put into special measures for failing to prevent nurses killing babies.

Sway

30,800 posts

205 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
Pistom said:
AdeTuono said:
12 people sat through a 10 month trial, were presented with all the evidence, and came to a guilty verdict.

What do you know that they don't?
Not having spent 10 months in a trial that was focused on statistical probability and treating that as fact is one advantage. It's very easy to be sold a lie. It's happened before and will happen again.

I've no idea if it happened on this occasion but the simple fact is she's been found guilty and now for that to be overturned, something significant is going to have to happen.
If there's a statistical outlier, especially over a large population, there is a cause.

The cause was presented as being Letby. There were no other realistic explanations presented. The jury believed that rationale, with no reasonable doubt.

BoRED S2upid

20,473 posts

251 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
Haven’t really followed it but wouldn’t be at all surprised if in 20 years she is let off and innocent of all murders.

I don’t believe she is a mass murdered. Very bad nurse no doubt.

Super Sonic

8,401 posts

65 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
Sway said:
If there's a statistical outlier, especially over a large population, there is a cause.

The cause was presented as being Letby. There were no other realistic explanations presented. The jury believed that rationale, with no reasonable doubt.
It wasn't a statistically significant outlier.
It wasn't a large population.
'We can't find an alternative cause' isn't evidence.

BikeBikeBIke

11,257 posts

126 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
She seems to have been largely convicted on statistics but that makes it a quantifiably safe conviction.

There are stastically lottery odds of her being not-guilty. That meets my definition of beyond reasonable doubt.

Super Sonic

8,401 posts

65 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
BoRED S2upid said:
Haven’t really followed it but wouldn’t be at all surprised if in 20 years she is let off and innocent of all murders.

I don’t believe she is a mass murdered. Very bad nurse no doubt.
Iirc the department she worked in was severely understaffed, not enough nurses or doctors.

Super Sonic

8,401 posts

65 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
"Most NHS maternity units not safe enough, says regulator - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-67238868.amp
A BBC article citing a report on inadequate maternity provision in the uk

Super Sonic

8,401 posts

65 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
BikeBikeBIke said:
She seems to have been largely convicted on statistics but that makes it a quantifiably safe conviction.

There are stastically lottery odds of her being not-guilty. That meets my definition of beyond reasonable doubt.
The data set is nowhere large enough to make such conclusions.

Mr Penguin

2,966 posts

50 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
BikeBikeBIke said:
She seems to have been largely convicted on statistics but that makes it a quantifiably safe conviction.

There are stastically lottery odds of her being not-guilty. That meets my definition of beyond reasonable doubt.
The statistical evidence seemed weak to me but this was a small part of a nine month trial.

S100HP

13,166 posts

178 months

Wacky Racer

39,435 posts

258 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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isaldiri

21,230 posts

179 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
quotequote all
AdeTuono said:
12 people sat through a 10 month trial, were presented with all the evidence, and came to a guilty verdict.

What do you know that they don't?
How convinced would you have been just after conviction about the guilt of Sally Clark or Andrew Malkinson? 12 jurors sat through the trial and were presented with all the evidence and came to a guilty verdict.

Sway said:
If there's a statistical outlier, especially over a large population, there is a cause.

The cause was presented as being Letby. There were no other realistic explanations presented. The jury believed that rationale, with no reasonable doubt.
Sally Clark's case and the previous Netherlands case as mentioned above here shows that isn't the case that a statistical outlier has to have the cause as being presented at the trial.

CraigyMc

17,677 posts

247 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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Skeptisk said:
Is it possible that she is innocent? Are the convictions safe?
Short of actually being there for the whole trial, I don't think anyone's got the information to answer that.

raftom

1,239 posts

272 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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Can't say for sure yes or no. But if I was a jury I definitely couldn't see myself deciding on a guilty verdict in face of all the arguments and circumstantial evidence presented. The work of the defence in particular seems very sloppy. In a case of this scientific and statistical complexity the only defence witness was a plumber???

It has all the hallmarks of going to end in the history books as a reference case in miscarriage of justice.

-crookedtail-

1,583 posts

201 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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There is a guy on YouTube who has the transcripts from her cross-examination in court & updates the case including the latest re-trial.

She honestly doesn't come across well, at all i.e. having memory loss when it suits her, explaining why she had confidential documents at home etc

I've no idea why she took the stand, I guess it was her choice. She should have just said nothing at all!

BikeBikeBIke

11,257 posts

126 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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Wacky Racer said:
That isn't a confession, apparently lots of people set out their internal angst that way.

If you were murdering babies and that writing was a factual statement admitting guilt it would be more likely you'd burn it than leaving it around.

IIRC that writing was a pretty small part of case.

thatsprettyshady

4,253 posts

176 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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Wacky Racer said:
The image quoted above bugged me when I saw it. My own personal experience of grief, particularly with unexpected death, is that blaming yourself for what you did/didn’t do can knaw away at you.

I have definitely in the past written things down to attempt to make sense of what happened, and if someone were to stumble upon them they could easily get the wrong impression.

I don’t know if she did it or not, I didn’t pay much attention to the trial.

I know she was painted as a particularly caring nurse, is it possible she “took her work home with her” a bit too much?

Gareth79

8,178 posts

257 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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This Telegraph article mentions the statistical evidence, and more:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/09/lucy-l...

What would be interesting is to get the same data for all other maternity wards over, say 20 years, and see if any other nurses fit the pattern. Either they are also serial killers or it's not statistically significant.

Baroque attacks

5,495 posts

197 months

Tuesday 9th July 2024
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Gareth79 said:
Either they are also serial killers or it's not statistically significant.
If viewing it in isolation.