How much of a mess are we really in?

[Digga]

Type R Tom said:

Digga said:

An opinion piece today in City Am about the UK housing crisis.





https://www.cityam.com/five-reasons-the-uk-has-a-h...

It's pretty good, but although it mentions longer commutes and a lack of desire to move into (expensive) cities as two side effects, it fails to fully describe how stamp duty is a major hindrance in this regard. Also a hindrance in terms of preventing empty-nesters bothering to downsize and free-up family-sized homes.

I'd fully support 0 stamp duty for those downsizing. Looking at the census data near me, I see an incredible number of spare rooms in properties. The irony is that these people with spare rooms are often those fighting against the construction of new estates near them that include 3+ bedroom properties.

I disagree. Stamp duty is the very bluntest of instruments and though ostensibly reduces price inflation (does it though?) creates massive inefficiencies.

Suppose you get a new job and have the choice of an extra 20min commute each way. Do you pay stamp duty to move?... Do you spend more time commuting - lower quality of life and probably less effective at work too?.. Do you turn down the role?...

So this, in effect, reduces both the mobility of the workforce and also the efficiency and quality.

[Sway]

P-Jay said:

I don't want to be a dick, but this sort of thing is nothing new.

We tell our kids the same things we were told - Try hard in school and pass your GCSEs, then your A-Levels, and then enjoy your student life and get that Degree and you're sorted, because degree = middle class success and happiness.

It's not true though, unless they have a vocational degree and even then, it's tough. Most Graduates will enter the job market at 21 or 22 in little better position than a school leaver, and very likely behind the 22yo former school lever with 3 years' experience looking for their first promotion.

My honest opinion to any 18yo who wants to study for a career that offers job security, good salary and statistically high levels of happiness I'd suggest they train to be a carpenter, plumber or electrician.

Agreed. I started down that route, but dropped out of my photography degree (!) during the first year - I was doing lots of office work part time, and gaining nothing from my degree.

I've since somehow managed to blag a decent life/career in various industries in a completely unrelated field.

[nickfrog]

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

You sound like quite the expert. We probably need more immigration considering our abysmall productivity and worryingly low birth rate.

[milesgiles]

markh1973 said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

Where is your evidence that we are importing a million low waged people a year?

1.3 million last year.. you think people come here for WORSE pay and conditions?

It’s a view I suppose

[milesgiles]

nickfrog said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

You sound like quite the expert. We probably need more immigration considering our abysmall productivity and worryingly low birth rate.

Well that’s what we’ve done for twenty years and here we are. But keep doing the same thing it will work eventually surely

[isaldiri]

nickfrog said:

You sound like quite the expert. We probably need more immigration considering our abysmall productivity and worryingly low birth rate.

Perhaps the high levels of immigration as a quick and bad fix to increase gdp somehow is actually part of the reason why productivity has continued to be crap......

[smifffymoto]

And the low birth rate because young couples fear raising a family on minimum wage.

[ATM]

milesgiles said:

markh1973 said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

Where is your evidence that we are importing a million low waged people a year?

1.3 million last year.. you think people come here for WORSE pay and conditions?

It’s a view I suppose

Surely it depends what country they're coming from?

[Mr Whippy]

Digga said:

Type R Tom said:

Digga said:

An opinion piece today in City Am about the UK housing crisis.





https://www.cityam.com/five-reasons-the-uk-has-a-h...

It's pretty good, but although it mentions longer commutes and a lack of desire to move into (expensive) cities as two side effects, it fails to fully describe how stamp duty is a major hindrance in this regard. Also a hindrance in terms of preventing empty-nesters bothering to downsize and free-up family-sized homes.

I'd fully support 0 stamp duty for those downsizing. Looking at the census data near me, I see an incredible number of spare rooms in properties. The irony is that these people with spare rooms are often those fighting against the construction of new estates near them that include 3+ bedroom properties.

I disagree. Stamp duty is the very bluntest of instruments and though ostensibly reduces price inflation (does it though?) creates massive inefficiencies.

Suppose you get a new job and have the choice of an extra 20min commute each way. Do you pay stamp duty to move?... Do you spend more time commuting - lower quality of life and probably less effective at work too?.. Do you turn down the role?...

So this, in effect, reduces both the mobility of the workforce and also the efficiency and quality.

No wonder the 90s felt so good.

On efficient/mobility, I believe we could scrap stamp duty and the uplift in non-wasted money sloshing around in home owners pockets would increase revenues elsewhere any way.

Ie, it’s just government taking it in one stupid way, vs consumers choosing how to better deploy it to create opportunity and growth, for government to tax in any case.


I’m about to blow £22,500 on stamp.

If I wasn’t I’d be spending it on trades to do more jobs when I move in. Instead I’m doing it diy.

[milesgiles]

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

markh1973 said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

Where is your evidence that we are importing a million low waged people a year?

1.3 million last year.. you think people come here for WORSE pay and conditions?

It’s a view I suppose

Surely it depends what country they're coming from?

No it depends on them being rational players

[ATM]

milesgiles said:

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

markh1973 said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

Where is your evidence that we are importing a million low waged people a year?

1.3 million last year.. you think people come here for WORSE pay and conditions?

It’s a view I suppose

Surely it depends what country they're coming from?

No it depends on them being rational players

Don't understand what that means

If a person is coming from a country of severe poverty they will accept anything as better

If a second person is coming from a country of wealth they will want more than the first person

Both are rational

[milesgiles]

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

markh1973 said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

Where is your evidence that we are importing a million low waged people a year?

1.3 million last year.. you think people come here for WORSE pay and conditions?

It’s a view I suppose

Surely it depends what country they're coming from?

No it depends on them being rational players

Don't understand what that means

If a person is coming from a country of severe poverty they will accept anything as better

If a second person is coming from a country of wealth they will want more than the first person

Both are rational

Second person isn’t moving here to earn less and be worse off. The first person is irrelevant to him and his rationality

[nickfrog]

milesgiles said:

nickfrog said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

You sound like quite the expert. We probably need more immigration considering our abysmall productivity and worryingly low birth rate.

Well that’s what we’ve done for twenty years and here we are. But keep doing the same thing it will work eventually surely

Or things might have been even worse. But perhaps they have for you hence you blaming immigration, it's a classic MO.

[milesgiles]

nickfrog said:

milesgiles said:

nickfrog said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

You sound like quite the expert. We probably need more immigration considering our abysmall productivity and worryingly low birth rate.

Well that’s what we’ve done for twenty years and here we are. But keep doing the same thing it will work eventually surely

Or things might have been even worse. But perhaps they have for you hence you blaming immigration, it's a classic MO.

It’s certainly a classic for you lefty nutters to play the man not the ball. declining living standards are an issue for everyone witness GDP falling per capita, and cuts in public spending. FYI, though, I am luckily comfortable as I doubled down on housing during the financial crisis because I could see exactly where Blair and Cameron were taking us.

In 2005 we fiddled with something that wasn’t broken (the immigration numbers) and have had 20 years of decline since. I’m sure you’d agree the onus of proof is therefore on you.

[ATM]

milesgiles said:

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

markh1973 said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

Where is your evidence that we are importing a million low waged people a year?

1.3 million last year.. you think people come here for WORSE pay and conditions?

It’s a view I suppose

Surely it depends what country they're coming from?

No it depends on them being rational players

Don't understand what that means

If a person is coming from a country of severe poverty they will accept anything as better

If a second person is coming from a country of wealth they will want more than the first person

Both are rational

Second person isn’t moving here to earn less and be worse off. The first person is irrelevant to him and his rationality

I did say second will want more than first

So this proves my point

It is nothing to do with rationality and more to do with where they are coming from because surely all are rational anyway

If we agree second person is unlikely to move here unless of course work isn't available in current/home country

Then some or majority - we don't know - people moving here could come from poorer situations

And if so probably more willing to accept work we might consider low paid - where we means you, me and whoever else posted here

I did hear about a migrant who fled her home country due to fear of death or execution. Money was irrelevant to her. It was all about quality of life. She would have accepted anything at first. Survival was the reason she moved. I know someone who mer her at an event and it seemed like Salesforce were potentially using her to get publicity but I guess that's what happens and she seemed to enjoy a bit of limelight.

https://www.salesforce.com/trailblazer-stories/sim...

[milesgiles]

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

markh1973 said:

milesgiles said:

Skeptisk said:

https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-living-standar...


This makes slightly depressing reading. UK heading in the wrong direction. Easy to diagnose but hard to fix.

Stop importing a million low waged people a year. Easy fix

Where is your evidence that we are importing a million low waged people a year?

1.3 million last year.. you think people come here for WORSE pay and conditions?

It’s a view I suppose

Surely it depends what country they're coming from?

No it depends on them being rational players

Don't understand what that means

If a person is coming from a country of severe poverty they will accept anything as better

If a second person is coming from a country of wealth they will want more than the first person

Both are rational

Second person isn’t moving here to earn less and be worse off. The first person is irrelevant to him and his rationality

I did say second will want more than first

So this proves my point

It is nothing to do with rationality and more to do with where they are coming from because surely all are rational anyway

If we agree second person is unlikely to move here unless of course work isn't available in current/home country

Then some or majority - we don't know - people moving here could come from poorer situations

And if so probably more willing to accept work we might consider low paid - where we means you, me and whoever else posted here

I did hear about a migrant who fled her home country due to fear of death or execution. Money was irrelevant to her. It was all about quality of life. She would have accepted anything at first. Survival was the reason she moved. I know someone who mer her at an event and it seemed like Salesforce were potentially using her to get publicity but I guess that's what happens and she seemed to enjoy a bit of limelight.

https://www.salesforce.com/trailblazer-stories/sim...

The three most popular countries of origin for uk migration are India Poland and Romania.

All extremely low waged. And half of those don’t work at all

It’s a complete mystery why this country is now so poor

[ATM]

milesgiles said:

It’s a complete mystery why this country is now so poor

I don't think it's a mystery

Too much debt accumulated over a period of too low interest rates for too long

[milesgiles]

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

It’s a complete mystery why this country is now so poor

I don't think it's a mystery

Too much debt accumulated over a period of too low interest rates for too long

It’s a factor. But why did we suddenly start accumulating so much debt from 2005?

See if you can work it out. Use a pen and paper

[ATM]

milesgiles said:

ATM said:

milesgiles said:

It’s a complete mystery why this country is now so poor

I don't think it's a mystery

Too much debt accumulated over a period of too low interest rates for too long

It’s a factor. But why did we suddenly start accumulating so much debt from 2005?

See if you can work it out. Use a pen and paper

Don't know if 2005 is significant but that's the build up to the GFC which was caused by too much debt too quickly because banks had invented a way to sell mortgage backed securities

I think the debt really took off with all the GFC bail outs and QE

Why do you think 2005 is significant?

[Digga]

The immigrants good-or-bad debate misses the point a little.

I don’t think anyone here, be they any part of the spectrum of that debate, can feel or believe the UK’s infrastructure and services are better now than 20 to 40 years ago. Nothing is not stretched to maximum and beyond in many cases.

Moving forward, the challenges are how to correct past errors and avoid repeating them.