47th President of the United States - Donald Trump. Vol. 2

[JJJ.]

CraigyMc said:

JuniorD said:

Did the North Atlantic Treaty ever contemplate one NATO member invading another NATO member?

Edited by JuniorD on Thursday 13th March 23:23

Turkey and Greece are both NATO members, so probably yes.

I presume this covers it???

Article 4
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial
integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened

[Sheets Tabuer]

JuniorD said:

Did the North Atlantic Treaty ever contemplate one NATO member invading another NATO member?

Edited by JuniorD on Thursday 13th March 23:23

Article 5 doesn't distinguish between a member nation or another country attacking a nato member.

Also article 5 doesn't mean everyone will go full judge dredd it just states what action the nation deems necessary.

I'm surprised Canada hasn't invoked article 4.

[Hugo Stiglitz]

[NRS]

QuickQuack said:

Every period of history has a dominant country, which had been empires until WW2, and throughout history, eventually, every dominant country has collapsed. The collapses have rarely been expected or foreseen, but it's a repeating pattern. Despite this, until recently, I had been thinking that the dominance of USA over most other nations was so great, that despite the resurgence of China, it would be very difficult for it to be toppled, especially as democracy should provide a much more stable and adaptable environment to keep a country competitive and a dictatorship less so.

However, history has also shown that all it takes is one mad ruler to take a country to the brink and then throw it off the cliff. I think Trump might prove to be that one ruler needed to drive the dominant country to the brink, but it's going to be a very close call to see if it falls down. I'm starting to think that if he stays in charge for the rest of his term, it actually might.

I’d say my impression is you need several bad rulers in a row to topple a the dominant empires. It’s normally decades of decline rather than a single moment. Trump will weaken the US politically but it’s not likely to be enough to take it down. However, combine it with the debt issue then less trust in the US might well add up a bit there.

[NoPackDrill]

NRS said:

I’d say my impression is you need several bad rulers in a row to topple a the dominant empires.

Maybe it’s the other way around - the bad rulers are an effect of the decline, not the cause? Rome’s string of puppets, children and lunatics was the inevitable result of an empire in economic, political, and military crisis?

Maybe the British Empire was unusual . . . we got our string of puppets, the child-like, and the unhinged half a century later than scheduled? (Although Eden shared Trump’s canal fixation!).

Bizarrely, that way round sort of chimes with Make America Great Again!

[wisbech]

NRS said:

I’d say my impression is you need several bad rulers in a row to topple a the dominant empires. It’s normally decades of decline rather than a single moment. Trump will weaken the US politically but it’s not likely to be enough to take it down. However, combine it with the debt issue then less trust in the US might well add up a bit there.

To be fair Trump/ Biden/ Trump is going to have been 12 years of bad/ mediocre leadership. The US seems to have become a gerontocracy- Pelosi/ McConnell etc. Reminds me a bit of late Soviet times - people holding on to power past their expiry date

I don’t think Biden was bad, but he was certainly not inspiring.

[Hugo Stiglitz]

NoPackDrill said:

NRS said:

I’d say my impression is you need several bad rulers in a row to topple a the dominant empires.

Maybe it’s the other way around - the bad rulers are an effect of the decline, not the cause? Rome’s string of puppets, children and lunatics was the inevitable result of an empire in economic, political, and military crisis?

Maybe the British Empire was unusual . . . we got our string of puppets, the child-like, and the unhinged half a century later than scheduled? (Although Eden shared Trump’s canal fixation!).

Bizarrely, that way round sort of chimes with Make America Great Again!

Aren't they struggling to pay federal wages/budgets due to the trillions of debt?

Peter Santenello has a good (but depressing) youtube channel on the rust belt etc.

[QuickQuack]

NoPackDrill said:

NRS said:

I’d say my impression is you need several bad rulers in a row to topple a the dominant empires.

Maybe it’s the other way around - the bad rulers are an effect of the decline, not the cause? Rome’s string of puppets, children and lunatics was the inevitable result of an empire in economic, political, and military crisis?

Maybe the British Empire was unusual . . . we got our string of puppets, the child-like, and the unhinged half a century later than scheduled? (Although Eden shared Trump’s canal fixation!).

Bizarrely, that way round sort of chimes with Make America Great Again!

I don't think I made it clear enough, sorry. What I wanted to say was that although majority of empires have long, slow declines, occasionally, just one absolutely bonkers ruler is enough to destroy a dominant country, or at least do so much damage that an inevitable collapse has started. Once the rot has set in, they're then followed by other rulers who may be less outrageously mad or bad, but still similarly inept, who continue to oversee the decline of the dominance of that country.

If Donald Trump is followed by JD Vance or his son, then we're definitely at that latter stage.

[NoPackDrill]

Hugo Stiglitz said:

NoPackDrill said:

NRS said:

I’d say my impression is you need several bad rulers in a row to topple a the dominant empires.

Maybe it’s the other way around - the bad rulers are an effect of the decline, not the cause? Rome’s string of puppets, children and lunatics was the inevitable result of an empire in economic, political, and military crisis?

Maybe the British Empire was unusual . . . we got our string of puppets, the child-like, and the unhinged half a century later than scheduled? (Although Eden shared Trump’s canal fixation!).

Bizarrely, that way round sort of chimes with Make America Great Again!

Aren't they struggling to pay federal wages/budgets due to the trillions of debt?

Peter Santenello has a good (but depressing) youtube channel on the rust belt etc.

Great Britain the Western Roman Empire . . . the US as its offspring Byzantium? (And they even set themselves up with the same structure - Governors with their own military forces. And facing the same financial / economic crisis).

Which makes China the rising Ottoman Empire!

[paua]

NoPackDrill said:

NRS said:

I’d say my impression is you need several bad rulers in a row to topple a the dominant empires.

Maybe it’s the other way around - the bad rulers are an effect of the decline, not the cause? Rome’s string of puppets, children and lunatics was the inevitable result of an empire in economic, political, and military crisis?

Maybe the British Empire was unusual . . . we got our string of puppets, the child-like, and the unhinged half a century later than scheduled? (Although Eden shared Trump’s canal fixation!).

Bizarrely, that way round sort of chimes with Make America Great Again!

apologies, I initially read that as carnal

[epom]

Past Presidents silence is deafening on how deranged this ass clown is. The man is sick, mentally unstable or incredibly stupid. All it’s short is Gervais or Merchant whispering in his ear what to say.

[W12GT]

paua said:

NoPackDrill said:

NRS said:

I’d say my impression is you need several bad rulers in a row to topple a the dominant empires.

Maybe it’s the other way around - the bad rulers are an effect of the decline, not the cause? Rome’s string of puppets, children and lunatics was the inevitable result of an empire in economic, political, and military crisis?

Maybe the British Empire was unusual . . . we got our string of puppets, the child-like, and the unhinged half a century later than scheduled? (Although Eden shared Trump’s canal fixation!).

Bizarrely, that way round sort of chimes with Make America Great Again!

apologies, I initially read that as carnal

I read it as anal - then wondered if Putin has a pegging video of him receiving…….

[Elysium]

epom said:

Past Presidents silence is deafening on how deranged this ass clown is. The man is sick, mentally unstable or incredibly stupid. All it’s short is Gervais or Merchant whispering in his ear what to say.

He is showing his power. Proving that the USA can do whatever it wants. That is still has might.

Which is going to be massively popular at home provided the gamble pays off.

Tariffs are unpopular in the business world, which is why the markets are falling. But in effect all he is doing is taxing Americans who buy imported goods or goods made with imported materials.

That is going to boost US production and increase tax revenue.

The reciprocal tariffs will hurt export, but he obviously thinks it will hurt other countries more. Which is probably right.

It’s ugly and somewhat sociopathic, but it isn’t stupid. It’s just the antithesis of net zero style exporting of heavy manufacturing.

[Carl_VivaEspana]

Daz68 said:

Just in total disbelief at what is going on at the moment. Just when will someone stop this idiot?

With opposition like Adam Schiff who needs allies.

Dems having a meltdown about continuation resolutions never mind anything of real change.

[Frik]

Elysium said:

That is going to boost US production and increase tax revenue.

The reciprocal tariffs will hurt export, but he obviously thinks it will hurt other countries more. Which is probably right.

It’s ugly and somewhat sociopathic, but it isn’t stupid. It’s just the antithesis of net zero style exporting of heavy manufacturing.

Surely it rather depends on how long the bit in bold takes?

[croyde]

The fat tt has managed to lose me all I had in a small ISA in only 2 weeks.

!

[Elysium]

Frik said:

Elysium said:

That is going to boost US production and increase tax revenue.

The reciprocal tariffs will hurt export, but he obviously thinks it will hurt other countries more. Which is probably right.

It’s ugly and somewhat sociopathic, but it isn’t stupid. It’s just the antithesis of net zero style exporting of heavy manufacturing.

Surely it rather depends on how long the bit in bold takes?

Agreed. It’s a big old gamble. But most of the US folks I know are in the “wait and see” position right now.

That probably means Trump has time to wait it out.

I think it would be rather annoying to pay 3 times more for a bottle of Chablis, but there is plenty of good wine in the US that will keep them going.

I’m not sure where this is all going to end up and I’m somewhat concerned that Trump probably doesn’t know either. However, I do think it will work itself out.

croyde said:

The fat tt has managed to lose me all I had in a small ISA in only 2 weeks.

!

I assume you mean “some” of what you had rather than all. Same here unfortunately.

We just have to wait.

Edited by Elysium on Friday 14th March 08:58

[croyde]

Elysium said:

epom said:

Past Presidents silence is deafening on how deranged this ass clown is. The man is sick, mentally unstable or incredibly stupid. All it’s short is Gervais or Merchant whispering in his ear what to say.

He is showing his power. Proving that the USA can do whatever it wants. That is still has might.

Which is going to be massively popular at home provided the gamble pays off.

Tariffs are unpopular in the business world, which is why the markets are falling. But in effect all he is doing is taxing Americans who buy imported goods or goods made with imported materials.

That is going to boost US production and increase tax revenue.

The reciprocal tariffs will hurt export, but he obviously thinks it will hurt other countries more. Which is probably right.

It’s ugly and somewhat sociopathic, but it isn’t stupid. It’s just the antithesis of net zero style exporting of heavy manufacturing.

But aren't US cars like Ford, made in Canada and Mexico.

Won't the costs of a buying home grown car rise?

What US cars are solely made in the US?

I guess the Mustang Coupe as mine was made in Dearborn in 2015.

[Mrr T]

Elysium said:

Frik said:

Elysium said:

That is going to boost US production and increase tax revenue.

The reciprocal tariffs will hurt export, but he obviously thinks it will hurt other countries more. Which is probably right.

It’s ugly and somewhat sociopathic, but it isn’t stupid. It’s just the antithesis of net zero style exporting of heavy manufacturing.

Surely it rather depends on how long the bit in bold takes?

Agreed. It’s a big old gamble. But most of the US folks I know are in the “wait and see” position right now.

That probably means Trump has time to wait it out.

I think it would be rather annoying to pay 3 times more for a bottle of Chablis, but there is plenty of good wine in the US that will keep them going.

I’m not sure where this is all going to end up and I’m somewhat concerned that Trump probably doesn’t know either. However, I do think it will work itself out.

It not a gamble it's the outcome of voting for a stupid old man who thinks he knows more than he does.

I hope those "wait and see" folks are happy with the fall in their saving and will be just as happy to pay a lot more for their shopping.

Tariffs never work except in a very targeted manner.

Wine is a good example, tariffs on EU wines increase prices. US producers cannot just produce more since planting to production is about 10 years. So guess what everybody puts up prices, the US gets more tax revenue but the folks get poorer.

At the moment the GOP is all in because of the threat of mucks money but in 2 years many face real voters who have seen saving vanish and costs rise.

[rscott]

Elysium said:

Frik said:

Elysium said:

That is going to boost US production and increase tax revenue.

The reciprocal tariffs will hurt export, but he obviously thinks it will hurt other countries more. Which is probably right.

It’s ugly and somewhat sociopathic, but it isn’t stupid. It’s just the antithesis of net zero style exporting of heavy manufacturing.

Surely it rather depends on how long the bit in bold takes?

Agreed. It’s a big old gamble. But most of the US folks I know are in the “wait and see” position right now.

That probably means Trump has time to wait it out.

I think it would be rather annoying to pay 3 times more for a bottle of Chablis, but there is plenty of good wine in the US that will keep them going.

I’m not sure where this is all going to end up and I’m somewhat concerned that Trump probably doesn’t know either. However, I do think it will work itself out.

Moving production to the US can cost millions - why would companies commit to that when Trump keeps removing and reimposing tariffs?
It also can take years to set up new production facilities and the products will still cost more than the pre-tariff price, because they've got to recoup the setup costs and pay the higher wages for US personnel.

Honda are talking about moving Civic production to the US, but they've said it'll be at least 3 years before anything cars roll out the new factory.

Most of our US clients are simply putting new projects on hold for a few months while they wait to see what happens. They don't want to commit to large expenditure when the tariff situation is changing every day.
They also have the problem that many of their supply chains involve at least 2 of Canada, Mexico and the US (often with third party elements) so can't easily shift everything anyway.
These are major industrial companies, with products or raw materials used in almost every US home or business.

As for your wine comment - please point me to a decent US equivalent for a prosecco, for example. If a winery wanted to produce a new prosecco style wine, they'd need to establish new vines (at least 2 years), then the production process is at least 3 months. Why would they make that commitment when he changes rules every other week.

So that means either pay 200% tariffs or wait 3 years to drink it.