Share tips thread (Vol 2)

[vulture1]

Brother D said:

vulture1 said:

See I agree with your points however (and please take this light heartedly) Vegans and vegetarians are dicks. So even if Mcdonalds do them most won't go in because "fk the corporations" For that reason i'm out.

I've been in BYDN since they first IPO'd as I believe in the product and it's netted a decent return managing a few well timed trades.

I think there are a lot of people out there like me that while are not vegitarian or vegan, have a bit of a conscience about animal welfare and the environment, and will happily eat a veggie burger or 'chicken' strips as a substitute (that is probably healthier as well). Not sure about the UK, but over here Byond meat is in all the supermarkets and usually next to the meat (pretty sure that got lobbied hard against by the meat monopolies over here (there are like only 3 or 4 meat suppliers)).

Yes the vegetarian meat section is beside our meat section. Something that triggered the mother all Karens in a customer having a massive go at me at how outraged and disgusted she was at it being right next to chicken and how she was offended. Usually I am pretty articulate and quick to reply but was so taken aback i just said to her "i will ask head office if we can move it but they probably won't.

[Condi]

Brother D said:

Not popular, but purchased some more at TSLA @680 : )

$TSLA is just under 60% of portfolio, but it's crushing overall portfolio performance (crushing in bad way - short term anyway)

YTD +5.68%

Genuine question, why do you think Tesla is good value at it's current market cap? You must be pretty confident in them given so much exposure.

[bad company]

Brother D said:

Not popular, but purchased some more at TSLA @680 : )

$TSLA is just under 60% of portfolio, but it's crushing overall portfolio performance (crushing in bad way - short term anyway)

YTD +5.68%

Wow, that’s brave. I wish you the best of luck but I’m not buying.

[p1stonhead]

bad company said:

Brother D said:

Not popular, but purchased some more at TSLA @680 : )

$TSLA is just under 60% of portfolio, but it's crushing overall portfolio performance (crushing in bad way - short term anyway)

YTD +5.68%

Wow, that’s brave. I wish you the
best of luck but I’m not buying.

60% on a single stock! And TSLA of all things!

Wow.

[Brother D]

Condi said:

Brother D said:

Not popular, but purchased some more at TSLA @680 : )

$TSLA is just under 60% of portfolio, but it's crushing overall portfolio performance (crushing in bad way - short term anyway)

YTD +5.68%

Genuine question, why do you think Tesla is good value at it's current market cap? You must be pretty confident in them given so much exposure.

I'm not sure traditional market fundamentals apply at this moment in time...

I do however think it's a groundbreaking company in terms of incredible innovation - from products to manufacturing processes (which are light years ahead of the competition in many respects). If the spacex or starlink IPO I will be heavily invested in those as well.

If my current TSLA hits the stop-loss I will still be up +50K on them over the past year on them.

Added 2K of $FSR yesterday, and that's one tip that's delivered with +28% today.

[p1stonhead]

Brother D said:

Condi said:

Brother D said:

Not popular, but purchased some more at TSLA @680 : )

$TSLA is just under 60% of portfolio, but it's crushing overall portfolio performance (crushing in bad way - short term anyway)

YTD +5.68%

Genuine question, why do you think Tesla is good value at it's current market cap? You must be pretty confident in them given so much exposure.

I'm not sure traditional market fundamentals apply at this moment in time...

I do however think it's a groundbreaking company in terms of incredible innovation - from products to manufacturing processes (which are light years ahead of the competition in many respects). If the spacex or starlink IPO I will be heavily invested in those as well.

If my current TSLA hits the stop-loss I will still be up +50K on them over the past year on them.

Added 2K of $FSR yesterday, and that's one tip that's delivered with +28% today.

So you’re just a Musketeer?

[BobsPigeon]

Brother D said:

I do however think it's a groundbreaking company in terms of incredible innovation - from products to manufacturing processes (which are light years ahead of the competition in many respects).

I just want to make it clear, I like Musk, I like what he stands for and how he thinks, I believe him a genius but this comment is not true, don't be misled.

Tesla and Musk got a jump on the competition by ambition and single minded drive, there's no doubt he put his money where his mouth was and jumped in with both feet and spent 10 years building a strong technological lead. It's the benefit of being a disruptive technology and innovative company in an corporate industry that was stale and where the barriers to entry were so high that it was impossible for disruptive thinking to get a foot in. Right guy, right time. But don't be misled into thinking VW, Toyota, Kia Hyundai, Ford, GM etc... Aren't capable of out teching, thinking or selling Tesla, the super tankers have turned.

Telsa's battery technology belongs to Panasonic, not Telsa. Tesla are not ahead of the game any longer.

[ATM]

Michael Burry is short Tesla. I think he is someone worth listening to. He was tweeting a couple of weeks ago that if Tesla went down 90% the market wouldn't even really notice. ARK Invest have been buying the Tesla dip big style. I'm therefore now short ARK Invest rather than Tesla directly.

[Burwood]

BobsPigeon said:

Brother D said:

I do however think it's a groundbreaking company in terms of incredible innovation - from products to manufacturing processes (which are light years ahead of the competition in many respects).

I just want to make it clear, I like Musk, I like what he stands for and how he thinks, I believe him a genius but this comment is not true, don't be misled.

Tesla and Musk got a jump on the competition by ambition and single minded drive, there's no doubt he put his money where his mouth was and jumped in with both feet and spent 10 years building a strong technological lead. It's the benefit of being a disruptive technology and innovative company in an corporate industry that was stale and where the barriers to entry were so high that it was impossible for disruptive thinking to get a foot in. Right guy, right time. But don't be misled into thinking VW, Toyota, Kia Hyundai, Ford, GM etc... Aren't capable of out teching, thinking or selling Tesla, the super tankers have turned.

Telsa's battery technology belongs to Panasonic, not Telsa. Tesla are not ahead of the game any longer.

CATL who supply VAG et al are just as efficient as the Tesla/Pana cells. VAG et al us Mobil eye tech which is just as good if not better than Tesla FSD. VAG et al are higher quality than Tesla. Tesla are not in any way ahead with the exception of their installed Charging network and the fact their cars accelerate faster (the latter being of zero interest to the mass market)

[Benbay001]

Brother D said:

I'm not sure traditional market fundamentals apply at this moment in time...

They certainly dont, otherwise people wouldnt be paying what they are paying.

But at some point the company will become valued on its fundamentals and at that point you will get burnt.

Have you forward tested the numbers to workout how much profit Tesla would need to make to justify todays SP?

A company cant carry on growing income at 30% per year forever, one day they will become an established stalwart and will simply have to be valued on a sensible multiple of earnings.

Ontop of that, for every year you hold Tesla you are missing out on all the income that a larger established company would be throwing off in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

Also, by holding Tesla youre basically shorting Toyota, VW, General Motors ETC.

Do you really think Toyota havnt got the engineering power to shift from very competent hybrid cars to very competent fully electric cars?

Teslas current sales feature over the other EVs is their uniqueness as a fashion statement. To even come close to justifying todays share price they would need to capture 50% of the new car market in 10 years time. How unique will they be then?

I like Tesla and i like Elon. But a good company can be a terrible investment. I would advise serious caution over having a significant percentage of your money in Tesla.

___________________________________

Edit, i thought id have a go at crunching the numbers.

Lets assume you want to achieve 20% per year (not unreasonable considering the risk youre taking on by holding Tesla)

Today, with the shareprice at $675 rather than its peak of $900, Tesla is valued at $650 billion.

Compound 650 at 20% for 10 years and Tesla will be worth $4.7 trillion.

Let assume in 10 years time, with lower forward growth Tesla trades at an earnings multiple of 20x (Toyota is currently at 9x, so i think im being generous with 20x for what will be a much more established company with many more competitors)

$4.7trillion / 20 = $235 billion of profit per year, 2019 REVENUE of VW was $290 billion, in an industry with notoriously tight margins.

That doesnt even include all the income returned (dividends) to shareholders that you could have otherwise received had you owned any other company.

If you want better than 20% return (which lets face it, most Tesla shareholders are probably expecting) then the profit of the company will need to be even larger in 10 years.

________________________________

Further edit.

In 2020 Tesla had revenues of 31 billion.

If they grow their revenue at 30% a year (a tall order, they only achieved 14% between 2018 and 2020) then Tesla's revenue in 2030 will be $450 billion by my calculations. Lets hope they have good profit margins (about 5% for the car industry, traditionally).

Edited by Benbay001 on Saturday 27th February 12:39

Edited by Benbay001 on Saturday 27th February 12:41

[vindaloo79]

Burwood said:

CATL who supply VAG et al are just as efficient as the Tesla/Pana cells. VAG et al us Mobil eye tech which is just as good if not better than Tesla FSD. VAG et al are higher quality than Tesla. Tesla are not in any way ahead with the exception of their installed Charging network and the fact their cars accelerate faster (the latter being of zero interest to the mass market)

One thing your missing here is the quality of the autonomous self driving software and the amount of miles and data gathered up to this point to test it in the real world.

I don’t have a clue what it’s worth. I think Tesla is overpriced, but easy money being pumped into the markets wrecklessly for years on end and more to come will mean fundamentals can be ignored, for now. There’s a lot of folk who believe in Musk and his various missions.

I am suprised that Elon hasn’t taken on the electric motorcycle market, bought out Zero. I imagine they would do very well at it, the network of chargers is there and they are more affordable than cars.

I guess every bike death would bring too much bad publicity though, disproportionate to car fatalities.

[Benbay001]

vindaloo79 said:

I don’t have a clue what it’s worth. I think Tesla is overpriced, but easy money being pumped into the markets wrecklessly for years on end and more to come will mean fundamentals can be ignored, for now.

Assuming youre intending to hold for a long time rather than trade, how are you making sure youre not holding the box when the music stops?

How do you spot the difference between "buy the dip" and the start of the company becoming valued on fundamentals?

[bitchstewie]

Benbay001 said:

Assuming youre intending to hold for a long time rather than trade, how are you making sure youre not holding the box when the music stops?

How do you spot the difference between "buy the dip" and the start of the company becoming valued on fundamentals?

Speaking for myself I trust the fund managers I hold Tesla through.

Because of their overall holding in the business James Anderson and Scottish Mortgage have the type of access to Tesla that we don't to make those decisions.

[fishseller]

Is there any alternative to Trading 212 tried to sign up but states to much demand so I i'm put on the waiting list ?

[UnfortunateUserName]

IG. Process was simple - even for an idiot like me....

fishseller said:

Is there any alternative to Trading 212 tried to sign up but states to much demand so I i'm put on the waiting list ?

[egor110]

fishseller said:

Is there any alternative to Trading 212 tried to sign up but states to much demand so I i'm put on the waiting list ?

Free trade

[g4ry13]

Does anyone hold/dabble with KAZ minerals?

[BobsPigeon]

vindaloo79 said:

One thing your missing here is the quality of the autonomous self driving software and the amount of miles and data gathered up to this point to test it in the real world.

I don’t have a clue what it’s worth.

Nothing, that's how much. Google own the mapping tech, the GPS system is essentially on loan from the military and could be switched off at any time and Tesla have nothing in the sensor and vision imaging tech space that can't very easily be replicated by any big manufacturer. Apple and Google both could release a self driving car to market very quickly as could a number of traditional car manufacturers.

But they won't because the market is worth nothing because we'll never have autonomous self driving cars, not because of the tech but because the legal and ethical issues are intractable, its just never going to happen.

[ferrisbueller]

Tend to agree. The challenges of getting autonomous vehicles out there is massive.

That said, an Apple tie up with someone like Lucid would put the cat amongst Tesla's pigeons.

[jammy-git]

BobsPigeon said:

But they won't because the market is worth nothing because we'll never have autonomous self driving cars, not because of the tech but because the legal and ethical issues are intractable, its just never going to happen.

When have legal and ethical issues ever got in the way of big corporations making lots of money? As soon as the balance (sheet) tips in their favour, we'll see autonomous vehicles on the road.