What’s your big gamble? (Volume 3)

[i4got]

ferrisbueller said:

i4got said:

ferrisbueller said:

Cashed out a chunk of Carnival today. One of those where the pre-covid and current market caps are getting close. I've left some in to maintain an interest and it drops again I might have another dabble.

I can't see historic market caps but the current share price is only about 55% of it's pre-covid level? Has there been a change in shares in circulation over the year?

Significant dilution. Based on the data I'd found it's about 95% pre-covid market cap.

Ah OK thanks - interesting.

[cheeky_chops]

whats the thinking on gold? Some say its doomed with bitcoin, others it will be $2500 tomorrow

Thinking about averaging down on GGP and a LTH...

[NordicCrankShaft]

Done a lot of reading about ABML, it's one of the ones I refuse to sell. Have high hopes for this one and if you do the reading it's all there for something that looks very promising. keep averaging down on any dips.

[ferrisbueller]

i4got said:

ferrisbueller said:

i4got said:

ferrisbueller said:

Cashed out a chunk of Carnival today. One of those where the pre-covid and current market caps are getting close. I've left some in to maintain an interest and it drops again I might have another dabble.

I can't see historic market caps but the current share price is only about 55% of it's pre-covid level? Has there been a change in shares in circulation over the year?

Significant dilution. Based on the data I'd found it's about 95% pre-covid market cap.

Ah OK thanks - interesting.

They did another billion rights issue just a few weeks ago. Given where we're at overall we might see sailings in Q3? It has been up and down between 1600 and 1700 recently but was sub 1500 a couple of weeks ago. It wouldn't take much bad news to put it back there IMO. Equally, clarity around a sailing timetable could send it up but these businesses are very different animals to the ones trading much higher at the start of 2020. It's another where I've been in for a while (all the way back at 700 originally) and will probably rotate the capital into steadier stock and gamble some of the profit.

[indestructible focus]

i4got said:

ferrisbueller said:

Cashed out a chunk of Carnival today. One of those where the pre-covid and current market caps are getting close. I've left some in to maintain an interest and it drops again I might have another dabble.

I can't see historic market caps but the current share price is only about 55% of it's pre-covid level? Has there been a change in shares in circulation over the year?

Ferris good decision I think, lots of better comapnies out there especially in travel with better balance sheets for starters, constant dilution. This site says market cap is similar to pre covid dont know why people dont buy saga, insurance profits cover 80% travel costs.
https://ycharts.com/companies/CCL/market_cap

[petemurphy]

dom9 said:

Didn't come back to update the thread but I sold out of AMGO...

Found myself chasing a limit sell, was getting busy at work, know I have a mad work day tomorrow so just took it out at market, early this afternoon.

Just thought "*** it - got well over 100% profit on the table, that'll do me". The greed got to me earlier in the week.

Without doing the calc (I don't want to) I guess I profited a few grand less than selling at the absolute 1 month peak and maybe a grand down on close yesterday...

But I am much happier for having the cash in the bank (well, dangerously, in my trading account).

get it back in the fruit machine

[anonymous-user]

*Badger* said:

Adam. said:

Will EQT ever go up? Someone got any knowledge of resistance levels? My 10k profit is now 1k

EQT Profit, that would be lovely, my average is 2.1p! Very late there.

Think yourself lucky. I average 2.5p, only bought because of fomo and didn't have much green nonsense. I think they're going places so in 2 years time we will do just fine. IMO it's one of those stocks that got pumped by PI way beyond what it's fundamentals currently justify.

[ferrisbueller]

indestructible focus said:

i4got said:

ferrisbueller said:

Cashed out a chunk of Carnival today. One of those where the pre-covid and current market caps are getting close. I've left some in to maintain an interest and it drops again I might have another dabble.

I can't see historic market caps but the current share price is only about 55% of it's pre-covid level? Has there been a change in shares in circulation over the year?

Ferris good decision I think, lots of better comapnies out there especially in travel with better balance sheets for starters, constant dilution. This site says market cap is similar to pre covid dont know why people dont buy saga, insurance profits cover 80% travel costs.
https://ycharts.com/companies/CCL/market_cap

I'm actually wondering whether PIs are piling in assuming it's going back over 3000. Or whether the detachment of value to share price has spread due to covid. I've been watching Saga but already had significant exposure in the sector and my Saga market cap data actually shows they're trading at a higher net value than pre-covid. Is that wrong? I've got 469m for pre-covid vs 564m today.

[Scootersp]

cheeky_chops said:

whats the thinking on gold? Some say its doomed with bitcoin, others it will be $2500 tomorrow

Thinking about averaging down on GGP and a LTH...

I have semi gold bug friends and frequent here to sort of get balance/alternative views.

So the theory is that 'eventually' the consequences of the stimulus everywhere and that lots of companies are zombies and little has been allowed to fail and the worst is yet to come etc etc and so Gold/Silver will catch up to the be what they have generally been ie a long term store of value. So $/£1,000 from 40 years ago has far less purchasing power than $/£1,000 worth of gold/silver would have if purchased those 40 years ago.

It's gone down recently and taken the miners with it, some of these miners are very good profit generating companies, a rising gold price would see them regain these losses quickly.

GGP has moved much at all on the gold price slide, the current producers slide more up/down on the price, the explorers on news of drilling or takeover chat etc etc. largely unaffected by the current price.....that's my experience?

Gold is not far off pre covid levels, and so pre all the measures. It might have lost out to bitcoin but part of bitcoin is the loss in faith of fiat and that's what Gold has also been historically. I know the whole Tesla Bitcoin thing did mention also Gold in it's possible future reserves destinations.

Everything is very optimistic right now if that turns around then I'd expect Gold to go back up?

[anonymous-user]

petemurphy said:

Skyedriver said:

Only a concern if you are making a profit Pete. Membership of the BAB club excludes you from the CGT club.

i need to know if i need to reduce my tax and buy bab!!

talking of which im entirely new to cgt

is there any easy way on ii.co.uk of working out how much you need to pay?

Don't know about II but for HL and T212 it is incredibly easy to work out your gain for the year. You pump in the start and end dates of the tax year, run a report, export to csv (Excel) and one of the columns shows your gain/loss for every transaction you've done so the sum of that column is your gain/loss for the year. It also takes into account in that column of all the charges, taxes, exchange rates etc so these are deducted from any gain for you. Far simpler than I was expecting; I had been expecting to have to wade through endless trades one by one.

So I'll run that report give to my accountant and job done for CGT. The good (bad?) news is that I will have to pay CGT for the current year. I could try and sell some stuff at a loss to offset it but that would be pointless as I hope my current losses will bounce back and it's pointless to save 20% tax (for me anyway).

(Note if you have made a loss overall this year then I believe if you declar ethat loss to HMRC on yoru tax return then it can be used to offset any gain next year and maybe years after too.... best check facts though if you're in this camp).

[anonymous-user]

ferrisbueller said:

Cashed out a chunk of Carnival today. One of those where the pre-covid and current market caps are getting close. I've left some in to maintain an interest and it drops again I might have another dabble.

Good move imo; I don't understand some companies now laden with debt etc getting nearly back to pre covid levels. The Chinese reckon FTSE and US exchanges are in a bubble... though that is most likely them trouble causing as they do. I believe CCL are one of the shares you can get money off their products as a shareholder if you are that way inclined.

[ferrisbueller]

MikeStroud said:

ferrisbueller said:

Cashed out a chunk of Carnival today. One of those where the pre-covid and current market caps are getting close. I've left some in to maintain an interest and it drops again I might have another dabble.

Good move imo; I don't understand some companies now laden with debt etc getting nearly back to pre covid levels. The Chinese reckon FTSE and US exchanges are in a bubble... though that is most likely them trouble causing as they do. I believe CCL are one of the shares you can get money off their products as a shareholder if you are that way inclined.

Given the amount of investment by the Chinese I'd suggest that they're partially responsible for the bubble. And why not? After all, they caused the crash.
How fortunate they have been to be able to buy into so many companies at such discounted levels. Such good "luck".......

[indestructible focus]

ferrisbueller said:

I'm actually wondering whether PIs are piling in assuming it's going back over 3000. Or whether the detachment of value to share price has spread due to covid. I've been watching Saga but already had significant exposure in the sector and my Saga market cap data actually shows they're trading at a higher net value than pre-covid. Is that wrong? I've got 469m for pre-covid vs 564m today.

Ahh couldnt tell you actually it got messy what with dilution and share consolidation. But I know insurance profits are circa 100m a year and boats aim to bring in 40m each so 180 total profits. Oldies are customers so vaccinated and large disposable income, the their insurance has stabilised what with 3 year fixed priced deal, seems too cheap still for me. Although I'm out after sale at 380p awaiting travel stocks pull back...

Edited they have circa 800 of debt so enterprise value of 1.3m brings it valuation more in line. Hmm still like it though as a stock, I'm half the age if the average customer.

Edited by indestructible focus on Wednesday 3rd March 17:17

[ferrisbueller]

This situation is worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-5625570...

If Texas and others can open up with no spike, there will be massive pressure to open up everywhere.

[anonymous-user]

Completely flat day... a massive 0.1% up

[Chris Stott]

indestructible focus said:

Ahh couldnt tell you actually it got messy what with dilution and share consolidation. But I know insurance profits are circa 100m a year and boats aim to bring in 40m each so 180 total profits. Oldies are customers so vaccinated and large disposable income, the their insurance has stabilised what with 3 year fixed priced deal, seems too cheap still for me. Although I'm out after sale at 380p awaiting travel stocks pull back...

Edited they have circa 800 of debt so enterprise value of 1.3m brings it valuation more in line. Hmm still like it though as a stock, I'm half the age if the average customer.

Edited by indestructible focus on Wednesday 3rd March 17:17

Saga market cap was 469m jan 1 2020. Currently trading c.ix120.... Market cap data by month for every LSE stock is available to download off the LSE site in a zip file.

US listed stocks are available on macrotrends.net without a subscription.

[Adam.]

MikeStroud said:

Completely flat day... a massive 0.1% up

Lucky you, another crap day by the look of it, down 10% from peak two weeks ago.

Do I give up on EQT and US stocks on Chuck it all on boring recovery stocks? Or grit my teeth and lose £2k per day until it turns around

Edited by Adam. on Wednesday 3rd March 18:55

[Aiminghigh123]

Somehow ended 0.08% up at the end of the day. Probably thanks to my 5000 odd IAG shares.

AMGO decided to go full on meltdown. Still up but effectively £2k down on profits.

[Luke.]

Poisson96 said:

What's the crack with ABML? Any sign they're onto something or just a swing that they might go up again?

https://medium.com/@alexandervigilante/why-a-failed-mining-company-with-a-renewed-focus-will-position-america-as-a-global-leader-in-109170d5c91

[Chris Type R]

+0.84% for me today - outperformed by the FTSE 100. Would have been okay had I sold AMGO at the right time.