Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst

Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst

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Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

174 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
ATM said:
Dont forget Crypto [+ NFT} and all the hyper growth stocks aka Cathy Wood. These are all well down from their highs and might never recover. So while there is still plenty of money floating around some has been lost / wiped out / gone. And therefore the retail crowd must be hurting from this.

Although some people believe that stocks is a 2 way game so as someone wins then someone else loses and vice versa. So has this money disappeared or has someone won on the short side - who knows. I think its just gone - poof.
There's no doubt the other side of the party (e.g. systematic hedge funds etc) have been making hay as retail investors have bought high and sold low.



There still seems to be plenty of demand for thematic style funds.

https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/193


Cameron Passmore: Well, that's kind of what these upcoming stories are. So, you want to jump to the next one here? Wealthfront. It's just such a great example. I mean, go ahead.

Ben Felix: We already picked on them last time, but they've announced new investment options. And it's basically, when you look at the investment and options that they're offering, it's basically the thematic ETFs that we bashed. I think we said that they were like lighting your money on fire.

Cameron Passmore: Yeah. But Ben, it's never been easier to build a portfolio you believe in.

Ben Felix: Yeah, you believe in right. You can invest in technology, the metaverse commodities, whole bunch of funny stuff like that, but it's inevitable. I mean, they need to find margin somewhere or keep people's attention somehow. So, it's not surprising to see that happening.

NowWatchThisDrive

691 posts

105 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
Scootersp said:
...but the next drop might be an eye opener for a different reason? The 'long run' could be years/decades, not weeks next time?

I think with almost nil safe options the markets are strong partly because of the lack of alternatives combined with good historic performance that gives confidence, so all with excess cash are parked in the markets to some degree? Holding cash is frowned upon as its a certain % loss over time, converting money to precious metals is considered tin foil hat territory, so some hard asset (property cars etc) buying and otherwise general funds/the market.

QE and near zero interest rates are not the norm historically (>4% is) and I don't think it's certain it's all going to play out just fine in the long run (which equally might be months or decades).
Anyone who is thinking about the "long run" element of the equity risk premium in weeks/months/years, rather than decades, is doing it wrong. Looking at rolling 30 year periods in SPX, for example, even if you'd invested at the top of the market just prior to the Great Depression you'd still have managed 7-8% annualised (nominal) over the ensuing 30 years. So if you plan for worse than that over the next 30 you're implicitly anticipating a worse market than the periods that included the Great Depression, GFC, Dotcom crash, 70s stagflation, WW2 and everything else.

Personally, I have skin in the game as I have ~80% of my net worth in equities, mortgage maxed out for extra investment cash and I'm running a margin loan, living off investment returns with no plans to go back to work - and I'd be happy to be in the same position with rates at 5%.

Scootersp

3,197 posts

189 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
Derek Chevalier said:
Scootersp said:
so with talk of the everything bubble
Bubbles where?
I'm just trying to understand things and that phrase is something I've heard from others.

My logic is telling me that the last years of zero returns on historic savings products for bonds, premium bonds, plain old bank balances etc has meant more and more people have put their money into other assets and these have grown. Markets at all time highs with covid and now a war, supply chain issues and high inflation.

Cash is trash is another phrase I hear and so this implies the last thing you want is to hold is lots of cash, so again logically this has to have created a demand for the other options people have. It also implies to me that when things get sticky for people, funds will flow back out of the these assets as overall people don't have cash reserves they once did, as it's currently residing in assets?

We are all set to face a reduction in disposable income from the energy etc cost increases so will either save less, or cut back on other expenses or retrieve value from our assets to use to live?

I have no idea on volumes of money inflow/outflow to the markets but as it was reported the helicopter money given to Americans directly linked to the boost in the Dow etc then it would seem the recent years inflows have been on the up, and in some cases artificially given the direct stimulus was just created, there was no work done no items produced it was population wide windfall?

Are the drivers there now for continued market inflows?

At current inflation rates (8%?) prices would double in under 10 years, and what's the fix for inflation at present a few 1/4% rate rises? Or a recession will cool it down, but then a recession isn't good for the market? Inflation in the 70's was halted by very high rates, we can't do that though now can we? But were they wrong back then, could they have done things differently back then and not raised rates which caused widespread home repossessions and economic pain?

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-e...

This is an excerpt

"We've learned a lot from that period.

For starters, ideas matter. Bad economic advice, much of it from economists, contributed greatly to policy mistakes in the pre-Volcker days. Keynesian economics had been in vogue by then for decades. This school argued that the government could tax and spend its way to full employment. Inflation was acceptable if it put more people to work. Thankfully, such thinking has been discredited today, although our economic models still need improvement."

.....aren't the Americans back to spending their way to full employment? and the Volcker option is no longer an option?


I just find it harder to see the continued performance others do......











ATM

18,300 posts

220 months

Friday 25th March 2022
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Before the Helicopter money to Americans we have had money printing or QE since 2008. This was initially all funnelled to big finance houses. They had to spend it. They couldn't spend it on bonds because these were all being bought up by the government so they started buying other assets like stocks and more recently land and houses. Without this QE the whole house of cards would have crashed in 2008 because it was all based on money made from issuing too much debt too quickly. That was in essence the cause of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This QE was meant to be temporary - but it is still going on but in bigger and bigger amounts. Covid came along just at the right time or if you have a tin foil hat they made a mountain out of that mole hill to allow them to print print print even more. The massive v shaped recovery after the Covid crash was when they basically said we will print whatever it takes. So if they had not done that we would have crashed more and where would be be now. The printing went crazy mental and money was being printed and thrown at everything and everyone. Then came the Helicopter money - on top of all that. So understand we have had over 10 years of money printing. Without that where would valuations be.

So now we are where we are.

If you think this is not a bubble then I'm not sure what I can say to explain it. You could argue its not a bubble and that prices have just risen in line with the devaluation of money. Because the money printing has made our currencies worthless and therefore valuations have risen to show the true value of stuff in relation to worthless currencies. But its all relative. Would house prices have risen so much over the last 5 years without QE and zero interested rates. Some of the hyper growth stocks which Cathy Wood loves are now down 80% from their highs. No one can say that was not a bubble - surely?

bitchstewie

51,447 posts

211 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
Presume it's as simple as some things are in a bubble.

The stuff ARK invest in can make you very rich or very poor and depending when you got in and out it's likely to be one or the other.

There are plenty of banged up cheap stocks out there.

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

174 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
Scootersp said:
Markets at all time highs with covid and now a war, supply chain issues and high inflation.
Markets levels (e.g. FTSE at 7000) will tend to trend upwards over time, and there is always something for us/the markets to worry about (but that's not to say they won't fall at some point), so I wouldn't say it's that unusual for markets to be at or near all-time highs.

Markets in terms of valuations is a more nuanced discussion. Looking at returns over the last 10 years:

S&P 500: 370%
MSCI World Large Growth: 350%
MSCI World: 255%
MSCI World Small Value: 205%
MSCI Emerging Markets: 75%

and also the corresponding valuations (e.g. price-earnings), you will see that there are big disparities, and hence differing (potential) bubble levels.

So I'd agree that there has been lots of money sloshing round, but it doesn't always tend to get distributed/invested evenly (assuming that's been one of the drivers behind the large cap growth returns).

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

174 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
bhstewie said:
Presume it's as simple as some things are in a bubble.

The stuff ARK invest in can make you very rich or very poor and depending when you got in and out it's likely to be one or the other.

There are plenty of banged up cheap stocks out there.
Exactly

Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

174 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
ATM said:
If you think this is not a bubble then I'm not sure what I can say to explain it.

As per my previous post - depends on your definition of a bubble. My point is that it's a more nuanced discussion, starting with valuations (amongst other things). On that measure, Uk housing, for example, has been in a bubble for many years.

Mr Whippy

29,075 posts

242 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
ATM said:
Phooey said:
Derek Chevalier said:
Bubbles where?
Property, stocks, cars, everything else? More bubbles than a hot bath with a cap full of Matey.
Dont forget Crypto [+ NFT} and all the hyper growth stocks aka Cathy Wood. These are all well down from their highs and might never recover. So while there is still plenty of money floating around some has been lost / wiped out / gone. And therefore the retail crowd must be hurting from this.

Although some people believe that stocks is a 2 way game so as someone wins then someone else loses and vice versa. So has this money disappeared or has someone won on the short side - who knows. I think its just gone - poof.
Given the whole green/energy cost/regulation around crypto, I can see a LOT of miners dumping their GPUs.
Ie, if ETH goes to POS from POW, as expected.

Right at a time when Nvidia, AMD and Intel will be releasing their new GPUs.


The roll-over in this space will have material impacts beyond the crypto space itself.

And with the background of real cost rises all round (£60 to top up half a tank of super unleaded today, ouch!), the demand for these items is going to drop too.

I’ve got money to spare but even I’m holding off paying silly money for a new computer I’m making.


If crypto goes, then it’ll be enough in the gpu space alone to knock Intel, amd and nvidia enough to keep them moving any higher.


I’m that whole space generally, despite being sts, Apple have the most interesting stuff going imo.

If the Metaverse is ever going to be a thing, even a bit, the Apple hardware (LiDAR, efficient cpu and gpu) is going to be the what people need to create it, more than the rendering side!

Content has always been king, even social media needs users to bring in content. Even YouTube.
They all thrive on users.
And Apple without doubt empowers users with their camera, scanners, audio, video etc.


Bit random off topic. There will be big winners and losers through a rough period.

Just like dot com, it took MS over a decade to come back, despite being a staple near monopoly!

No guarantees you might not lose your shirt for a decade, even in a great company, if you’re buying or have bought anything above Jan 2020 values.

g4ry13

17,045 posts

256 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
ATM said:
Phooey said:
Derek Chevalier said:
Bubbles where?
Property, stocks, cars, everything else? More bubbles than a hot bath with a cap full of Matey.
Dont forget Crypto [+ NFT} and all the hyper growth stocks aka Cathy Wood. These are all well down from their highs and might never recover. So while there is still plenty of money floating around some has been lost / wiped out / gone. And therefore the retail crowd must be hurting from this.

Although some people believe that stocks is a 2 way game so as someone wins then someone else loses and vice versa. So has this money disappeared or has someone won on the short side - who knows. I think its just gone - poof.
Given the whole green/energy cost/regulation around crypto, I can see a LOT of miners dumping their GPUs.
Ie, if ETH goes to POS from POW, as expected.

Right at a time when Nvidia, AMD and Intel will be releasing their new GPUs.


The roll-over in this space will have material impacts beyond the crypto space itself.

And with the background of real cost rises all round (£60 to top up half a tank of super unleaded today, ouch!), the demand for these items is going to drop too.

I’ve got money to spare but even I’m holding off paying silly money for a new computer I’m making.


If crypto goes, then it’ll be enough in the gpu space alone to knock Intel, amd and nvidia enough to keep them moving any higher.


I’m that whole space generally, despite being sts, Apple have the most interesting stuff going imo.

If the Metaverse is ever going to be a thing, even a bit, the Apple hardware (LiDAR, efficient cpu and gpu) is going to be the what people need to create it, more than the rendering side!

Content has always been king, even social media needs users to bring in content. Even YouTube.
They all thrive on users.
And Apple without doubt empowers users with their camera, scanners, audio, video etc.


Bit random off topic. There will be big winners and losers through a rough period.

Just like dot com, it took MS over a decade to come back, despite being a staple near monopoly!

No guarantees you might not lose your shirt for a decade, even in a great company, if you’re buying or have bought anything above Jan 2020 values.
Ethereum 2.0 has been spoken about for years and had numerous delays. I'm not sure how imminent the move to POS really is. Even if / when it does move to POS, miners will just switch to mining different assets with their rigs.

In any case, you seem to be ignoring that aside from crypto mining, the other use for GPU's is the gaming industry. Gaming continues to become even more popular and is a huge market. Intel / AMD / Nvidia etc. will be fine regardless.

ATM

18,300 posts

220 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
g4ry13 said:
Gaming continues to become even more popular and is a huge market. Intel / AMD / Nvidia etc. will be fine regardless.
The next gen of gaming will be GPU in the cloud - or not at your home or in your device. So you wont have an Xbox. You will just stream the game from the cloud - Xbox in the Cloud - and the GPU'ing will be done at their end not at yours. Your device - tablet / tv / anything - will just need to be able to render the data sent - like watching a video - and have enough bandwidth to get all this data up and down - obviously down is the pic and up is your movements.

g4ry13

17,045 posts

256 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
ATM said:
g4ry13 said:
Gaming continues to become even more popular and is a huge market. Intel / AMD / Nvidia etc. will be fine regardless.
The next gen of gaming will be GPU in the cloud - or not at your home or in your device. So you wont have an Xbox. You will just stream the game from the cloud - Xbox in the Cloud - and the GPU'ing will be done at their end not at yours. Your device - tablet / tv / anything - will just need to be able to render the data sent - like watching a video - and have enough bandwidth to get all this data up and down - obviously down is the pic and up is your movements.
Yes, they already have this.

Nvidia have Geforce now which is a cloud based solution where you basically rent access to powerful gaming computers. Even if people move away from physical machines (not convinced that will happen any time soon due to internet speeds), the companies will adapt for the cloud.

Google had Stadia, Amazon have Luna, Microsoft have their own variety - they're generally flops.

leef44

4,408 posts

154 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
ATM said:
g4ry13 said:
Gaming continues to become even more popular and is a huge market. Intel / AMD / Nvidia etc. will be fine regardless.
The next gen of gaming will be GPU in the cloud - or not at your home or in your device. So you wont have an Xbox. You will just stream the game from the cloud - Xbox in the Cloud - and the GPU'ing will be done at their end not at yours. Your device - tablet / tv / anything - will just need to be able to render the data sent - like watching a video - and have enough bandwidth to get all this data up and down - obviously down is the pic and up is your movements.
So this would mean internet cabling will be the big thing. Should we be looking to invest in internet cabling suppliers e.g. fibre optics, Openreach, wifi router technology?

Mr Whippy

29,075 posts

242 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
g4ry13 said:
Ethereum 2.0 has been spoken about for years and had numerous delays. I'm not sure how imminent the move to POS really is. Even if / when it does move to POS, miners will just switch to mining different assets with their rigs.

In any case, you seem to be ignoring that aside from crypto mining, the other use for GPU's is the gaming industry. Gaming continues to become even more popular and is a huge market. Intel / AMD / Nvidia etc. will be fine regardless.
POS won’t need GPU anywhere near as much.
Probably ram or fast hdd more.

POS has been talked about for years, when we didn’t have ESG and electricity supplies dwindling and prices rising.

Crypto falling into being regulated will push ESG and green.
Cripes, the EU almost just voted to essentially ban crypto just like China.

Plus you have lots of people invested in POS, eventually the pressure to move across will become irresistible.

It could happen sooner than later.


Yeah gaming etc is still all there.

The point was for the last 2 years Nvidia have had WFH and crypto demand elevating their share price many times what it was.

I was buying just as many GPUs, along with school friends and family, back in the 90s, 00s and 10s, as I am now.

The market is pretty saturated. As too is the console markets… which are arguably taking away gaming GPU business… which is likely exactly why 30 series from nvidia was priced so competitively.
You can buy an entire 4K PS5 for less than a mid-range nvidia gpu today!
Consoles used to cost similar to the high end GPUs.

Indeed, just 5 years ago SLI was vogue, now it’s not, so less sales of GPUs to gamers there.


So yes, business as usual. But share prices, which is what I’m talking about here, won’t be sustainable… nvidia, amd and Intel will be (at some stage) selling into a market that’s tanking.
The values are based on pandemic supply/demand and wfh.


I’m hoping I’m not missing something, but not many people I talk to are seeing pay rises to keep up with costs.

The expectation for many now is probably defer a purchase until prices drop, and if they don’t drop they won’t be buying.

That’s not bullish.

Scootersp

3,197 posts

189 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
Derek Chevalier said:
Markets levels (e.g. FTSE at 7000) will tend to trend upwards over time, and there is always something for us/the markets to worry about (but that's not to say they won't fall at some point), so I wouldn't say it's that unusual for markets to be at or near all-time highs.

Markets in terms of valuations is a more nuanced discussion. Looking at returns over the last 10 years:

S&P 500: 370%
MSCI World Large Growth: 350%
MSCI World: 255%
MSCI World Small Value: 205%
MSCI Emerging Markets: 75%

and also the corresponding valuations (e.g. price-earnings), you will see that there are big disparities, and hence differing (potential) bubble levels.

So I'd agree that there has been lots of money sloshing round, but it doesn't always tend to get distributed/invested evenly (assuming that's been one of the drivers behind the large cap growth returns).
I take your point re all time highs, but I'm thinking about things like the buffet indicator which might suggest we've been chancing our arm and/or actions have been taken to help us get to where we are. So the market has gone up faster than the levels of GDP suggest it should have, so potentially we are over valued, as the value added doesn't fit with the actual work done/goods produced?

We have diverged and so to some degree it would seem we have artificially bolstered/accelerated the market, so can this be the new norm or is a reversion possible/likely/inevitable?

It's just a ratio/indicator and may be out of date, but if it isn't we are the wrong side of it for it to be calling a market increase, unless GDP is set to explode (which seems unlikely?)


Edited by Scootersp on Friday 25th March 19:58

Phooey

12,614 posts

170 months

Friday 25th March 2022
quotequote all
I guess we’ll know if it’s a bubble in a year or two. It fks with your mind though because as much as it doesn’t feel right, I don’t want to be out of the market. I’m riding the FOMO wave. TINA.


Derek Chevalier

3,942 posts

174 months

Saturday 26th March 2022
quotequote all
Scootersp said:
Derek Chevalier said:
Markets levels (e.g. FTSE at 7000) will tend to trend upwards over time, and there is always something for us/the markets to worry about (but that's not to say they won't fall at some point), so I wouldn't say it's that unusual for markets to be at or near all-time highs.

Markets in terms of valuations is a more nuanced discussion. Looking at returns over the last 10 years:

S&P 500: 370%
MSCI World Large Growth: 350%
MSCI World: 255%
MSCI World Small Value: 205%
MSCI Emerging Markets: 75%

and also the corresponding valuations (e.g. price-earnings), you will see that there are big disparities, and hence differing (potential) bubble levels.

So I'd agree that there has been lots of money sloshing round, but it doesn't always tend to get distributed/invested evenly (assuming that's been one of the drivers behind the large cap growth returns).
I take your point re all time highs, but I'm thinking about things like the buffet indicator which might suggest we've been chancing our arm and/or actions have been taken to help us get to where we are. So the market has gone up faster than the levels of GDP suggest it should have, so potentially we are over valued, as the value added doesn't fit with the actual work done/goods produced?

We have diverged and so to some degree it would seem we have artificially bolstered/accelerated the market, so can this be the new norm or is a reversion possible/likely/inevitable?

It's just a ratio/indicator and may be out of date, but if it isn't we are the wrong side of it for it to be calling a market increase, unless GDP is set to explode (which seems unlikely?)


Edited by Scootersp on Friday 25th March 19:58
"The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total United States stock market valuation to GDP." (believe it uses the Wishire 5000)

Again this goes back to my point re different areas of the market having vastly different valuations - have a look MSCI USA Growth vs Value for example, especially over the last 5 years.

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/d1ec1190-4b2a...

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/68100f32-80a9...

Look at it another way, from 2000-2010 the S&P 500 had a lost decade after the dot com bust, but that didn't mean that all US stocks suffered during this time.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1217716.stm




Phooey

12,614 posts

170 months

Saturday 26th March 2022
quotequote all
https://www.investopedia.com/news/why-stock-invest...


I appreciate this article is from 2019 and predominantly 'momentum' stocks but worth a thought. Is this where the 'bubble' is today scratchchin


"Another sign of froth in U.S. equities today is the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a measure of short-term stock price momentum. The RSI is now at its highest level since 1996 for the S&P 500, the Journal adds, indicating a highly overbought market that is vulnerable to a reversal."



Edited by Phooey on Saturday 26th March 07:21

bitchstewie

51,447 posts

211 months

Saturday 26th March 2022
quotequote all
Phooey said:
I guess we’ll know if it’s a bubble in a year or two. It fks with your mind though because as much as it doesn’t feel right, I don’t want to be out of the market. I’m riding the FOMO wave. TINA.
Again where's the bubble?

I don't think the FTSE 100 could be considered a bubble but likewise it's probably not going to grow your money much.

Want to invest in the US there's S&P equal weight funds or ways to avoid the NASDAQ or look at value stocks but be aware that if you do this you're taking active decisions.

There's a huge difference in terms of "bubbles" between sticking your money in a global tracker v piling into Scottish Mortgage Trust or Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust (as rough ARKK proxies).

I take your point as the stream of bad news makes you think prices should be lower but they're still down 6-7% ish from where they were a few months ago and then we're into whether you or I as a couple of blokes on an internet forum think we know better than the collective wisdom of the global markets.

DonkeyApple

55,440 posts

170 months

Saturday 26th March 2022
quotequote all
Personally, I think the bubble lies in the stocks and sectors where lower income retail investors have been storing their cash while simultaneously being the customer.

Share prices have been inflated by irrational repeated buying beyond levels where growth projections can really be justified but the people doing that buying are also the customers. But importantly, this is the economic group in the West who is going to lose the most spending power potentially.

It's kind of the equivalent of someone being a massive Gary Glotter fan and not just going to the concerts but buying a lifetime supply of T-shirts only to wake up one morning to learn that the party is over and they've got a load of stuff they can't do anything with.

We do have this systemic risk of a generation of traders who firstly have been sold the concept of gambling as a rebranded form of investing. It's also a group that has not yet witnessed a real market but have a false sense of risk having grown up during a period where markets weren't allowed to fall. It shuns traditional markets due to an illusion over normal returns.

In many ways it is a group of middle income earners who have a low income earners attitude so places big bets hoping to change their lifestyle but the difference being they've not fully appreciated that they're gambling or that their lifestyle is already pretty awesome in comparative terms.

That's were you can see a bubble. Stocks that are reliant on a single group to not just buy their product but to ramp up their share price so they can keep replacing the money that they're losing or maintain the facade that they're something that they're not.

There's also the messiah cult risk. The investors seems obsessed with finding deities to blindly worship as much as enemies to be intolerant of and use as tools to easily blame everything on. It's an enormous social question, why has a significant proportion of an entire generation not grown out of the teenage phase? Why do we have so many of these adult teenagers who remain over emotional, intolerant and in need of bedroom posters to blindly worship? What the fk did so many parents do to so many of their kids?!!

Who knows if that bubble is going to burst but the sector has been selling off for 6-12 months precisely because of fears along these lines and the risks to not being able to get more cheap money to burn.

If you look at the key sectors in the FTSE, financials should do well in a rising interest rate environment as margins grow. The oil, gas and miners obviously have strong long term demand. The utilities seem pretty solidly underpinned and most of the tech related stuff is long in the tooth and has been over the hump years ago where they just became another mainstream business.