Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst
Discussion
b
hstewie said:

Mr Whippy said:
b
hstewie said:
This is what puts me off global trackery type stuff.
Investing in piles of utter rubbish that needs to be “timed” to work out, but which you can’t time because it’s wrapped up.
Derek beat me to it (and I don't work in the financial industry) but the stocks in the chart are inconsequential to a world index.
Probably thousands if you take the time to look globally.
If you can’t ‘get it’ in 2 mins then it’s probably rubbish.
Yes yes one in a hundred might become Amazon… sad to miss out on it. Oh well.
Then all the ethically horrible stuff, like Roblox and gambling stuff. Yes you can make a great return, but I like to sleep at night too.
Wow look, if I buy this global tracker I’m giving money to people who make guns to shoot people dead too. Again, not great.
A global tracker with a customisable blacklist would be lovely.
Derek Chevalier said:
bmwmike said:
Mr Whippy said:
Have to agree, though I think ETFs partially solve that problem or at least don't take 3 dubious days to sell or buy. I dislike regular funds for that reason. b
hstewie said:

But if you buy a global world tracker you're really not going to be holding that much that's outside of the S&P 500 so far as US super tech.
Haven't looked but I'd be surprised if Peloton and companies like that even figure there.
I’ll be honest I’ve not looked at constituents etc.Haven't looked but I'd be surprised if Peloton and companies like that even figure there.
I assume global trackers hold a bit of everything? Or is it just S&P500, FTSE100, Nifty50 and all the big per-country indexes?
If so then that does protect you a bit from rubbish… but then probably not as diversified as one would think (ie, lots of weight in top end of S&P500)
Mr Whippy said:
Exactly it’s not like those 6 stocks are it.
There are loads of them.
Pretty much every IPO from the last 18 months can go on there. Day-dreamy b
ks bought up because ‘hype’
Yeah it feels like every stock launches at the "this could be it potential value" price straight away nowadays. Then we are surprised when it crashes to its actual value or less.There are loads of them.
Pretty much every IPO from the last 18 months can go on there. Day-dreamy b

Mr Whippy said:
I’ll be honest I’ve not looked at constituents etc.
I assume global trackers hold a bit of everything? Or is it just S&P500, FTSE100, Nifty50 and all the big per-country indexes?
If so then that does protect you a bit from rubbish… but then probably not as diversified as one would think (ie, lots of weight in top end of S&P500)
You can download the constituents of most indexes.I assume global trackers hold a bit of everything? Or is it just S&P500, FTSE100, Nifty50 and all the big per-country indexes?
If so then that does protect you a bit from rubbish… but then probably not as diversified as one would think (ie, lots of weight in top end of S&P500)
This is an MSCI World Index tracker for example.
https://www.ssga.com/uk/en_gb/institutional/etfs/f...
Peloton and the other stocks on the screenshot will make you poor if you're invested in them but you'll have next to no exposure via broad global indexes.
Derek Chevalier said:
I think you may have linked to this Youtube channel before - this one is worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjWmaRKmnEA
Thanks. As he hints at the end of the vid - for the amateur investor like myself it's probably best to avoid Factor investing and stick to simple global index investing, unless you know what you're doing. Probably more risk than reward in my casehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjWmaRKmnEA
Latest Vanguard article - https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/articles/latest...

Mr Whippy said:
It’s not just those is it though. There are hundreds.
Probably thousands if you take the time to look globally.
If you can’t ‘get it’ in 2 mins then it’s probably rubbish.
Yes yes one in a hundred might become Amazon… sad to miss out on it. Oh well.
Then all the ethically horrible stuff, like Roblox and gambling stuff. Yes you can make a great return, but I like to sleep at night too.
Wow look, if I buy this global tracker I’m giving money to people who make guns to shoot people dead too. Again, not great.
A global tracker with a customisable blacklist would be lovely.
"There are hundreds" - If you knew these obvious over valued companies, did you short them? If so, you would have made a killing. Probably thousands if you take the time to look globally.
If you can’t ‘get it’ in 2 mins then it’s probably rubbish.
Yes yes one in a hundred might become Amazon… sad to miss out on it. Oh well.
Then all the ethically horrible stuff, like Roblox and gambling stuff. Yes you can make a great return, but I like to sleep at night too.
Wow look, if I buy this global tracker I’m giving money to people who make guns to shoot people dead too. Again, not great.
A global tracker with a customisable blacklist would be lovely.
Also, why do you need a global tracker with a customisable blacklist if you already know the (above) over valued companies i.e. due to your ability to discount the overvalued companies, I assume you trust your ability to buy the best performing individual stocks, right?
chip* said:
"There are hundreds" - If you knew these obvious over valued companies, did you short them? If so, you would have made a killing.
It's one thing to spot the obviously overvalued s
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Mr Whippy said:
A global tracker with a customisable blacklist would be lovely.
Direct indexinghttps://www.morningstar.com/articles/1052221/what-...
I hear occasional chat from the U.S. but haven't really seen it on the radar in the UK yet.
b
hstewie said:

Mr Whippy said:
I’ll be honest I’ve not looked at constituents etc.
I assume global trackers hold a bit of everything? Or is it just S&P500, FTSE100, Nifty50 and all the big per-country indexes?
If so then that does protect you a bit from rubbish… but then probably not as diversified as one would think (ie, lots of weight in top end of S&P500)
You can download the constituents of most indexes.I assume global trackers hold a bit of everything? Or is it just S&P500, FTSE100, Nifty50 and all the big per-country indexes?
If so then that does protect you a bit from rubbish… but then probably not as diversified as one would think (ie, lots of weight in top end of S&P500)
This is an MSCI World Index tracker for example.
https://www.ssga.com/uk/en_gb/institutional/etfs/f...
Peloton and the other stocks on the screenshot will make you poor if you're invested in them but you'll have next to no exposure via broad global indexes.
Slighly on topic - found this interesting re how index funds may be creating more volatility - buying the winners, therefore pushing up prices (iteratively).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyzoCJY7BPU&fe...
speedy_thrills said:
ooid said:
Wasn't that due to a volcano eruption in Indonesia or something like that?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_f...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
"Several causes have been proposed: cyclical lows in solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, variations in Earth's orbit and axial tilt (orbital forcing), inherent variability in global climate, and decreases in the human population (such as from the Black Death... "
Derek Chevalier said:
Slighly on topic - found this interesting re how index funds may be creating more volatility - buying the winners, therefore pushing up prices (iteratively).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyzoCJY7BPU&fe...
Mike Green is great on this topic. I've not seen this specific video but I suspect it's well worth a watch.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyzoCJY7BPU&fe...
Derek Chevalier said:
Slighly on topic - found this interesting re how index funds may be creating more volatility - buying the winners, therefore pushing up prices (iteratively).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyzoCJY7BPU&fe...
Are we saying global passives are bad now? (I’ve not watched the vid)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyzoCJY7BPU&fe...
Jon39 said:
rdjohn said:
I was in my 30s when I was speaking with an experienced fund manager in 1986 just after Big-Bang. He went on-and-on about how the 1970s were so very difficult. The only thing they had in the office were basic adding machines, or, if lucky a Sinclair calculator. They simply read the FT and thought “ Oh s
t” In 1986, he had a flashy computer (no Windows) and thought he knew everything.
Of course in October 1987, Black Friday happened and he still thought “Oh” we did not see that coming. ....

Of course in October 1987, Black Friday happened and he still thought “Oh” we did not see that coming. ....
I was a novice in 1987, so did not see that coming either, but it did not matter because I did not panic.
Looking back though, it was unprofessional for 'an experienced fund manager', to make that comment (leaving aside his main job of increasing fee income).
The market rise during 1987, prior to that crash, was enormous. That was one obvious clue he overlooked.
There was a week of panic, but followed promptly by a strong recovery.
By the end of 1987, for anyone who held throughout that year;
FTSE 100 ... = +2.0% (Total Return = +6.2%)
All-Share .... = +4.5% (Total Return = +8.44%)
Enormous panic, but turned out out to be no big deal, for those who stayed in the market continually.
That (very serious at the time) crash, only shows as a tiny blip on charts now.
40-years later, I actually believe that fund managers do have a good array of tools to better understand the consequences of their decisions.
Inevitably, events like Ukraine create great uncertainty, but within a few days the market has a pretty good understanding of how things lie and so reflect a fair current valuation.
Consequently, it is a much safer place to put your cash. You can be certain that if you put it in a Building Society, after 3-years, it is most unlikely to have offset inflation.
The guy in the 1920s who invested heavily in one company and lost the lot was just plain dumb - with 20/20 hindsight. No one really knew the true value of what he was buying.
Phooey said:
Are we saying global passives are bad now? (I’ve not watched the vid)
Anecdotally I have two investment managers - one for my pension, one for investments.The investment one has done much better in the last year, albeit still losing money, and they are the active rather than passive manager.
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