Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst
Discussion
Been a while since I last visited.
My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.
As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash. What changed? I was cognisant that we could be in a Santa rally, and that the real economy has another leg down (Tech leading the way) inc commodities. The situation in China that has developed over the weekend has really brought forward my timetable to rapidly de-risk my position in the short-term, although I am/was bullish on commodities over medium to long-term.
I now need to reassess my position on commodities and time-frames based upon the range of potential outcomes re: China and the CCP response to the breakout of mass demonstrations. The earning season for the real economy (and re-pricing stocks based upon re-baselined earnings) was always going to be difficult, but any potential for a soft-landing could now free-fall without a parachute if the CCP double-down and crackdown on protests with force.
I am not optimistic that a Tiananmen situation can be avoided.
My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.
As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash. What changed? I was cognisant that we could be in a Santa rally, and that the real economy has another leg down (Tech leading the way) inc commodities. The situation in China that has developed over the weekend has really brought forward my timetable to rapidly de-risk my position in the short-term, although I am/was bullish on commodities over medium to long-term.
I now need to reassess my position on commodities and time-frames based upon the range of potential outcomes re: China and the CCP response to the breakout of mass demonstrations. The earning season for the real economy (and re-pricing stocks based upon re-baselined earnings) was always going to be difficult, but any potential for a soft-landing could now free-fall without a parachute if the CCP double-down and crackdown on protests with force.
I am not optimistic that a Tiananmen situation can be avoided.
putonghua73 said:
Been a while since I last visited.
My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.
As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash. What changed? I was cognisant that we could be in a Santa rally, and that the real economy has another leg down (Tech leading the way) inc commodities. The situation in China that has developed over the weekend has really brought forward my timetable to rapidly de-risk my position in the short-term, although I am/was bullish on commodities over medium to long-term.
I now need to reassess my position on commodities and time-frames based upon the range of potential outcomes re: China and the CCP response to the breakout of mass demonstrations. The earning season for the real economy (and re-pricing stocks based upon re-baselined earnings) was always going to be difficult, but any potential for a soft-landing could now free-fall without a parachute if the CCP double-down and crackdown on protests with force.
I am not optimistic that a Tiananmen situation can be avoided.
Interestng.My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.
As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash. What changed? I was cognisant that we could be in a Santa rally, and that the real economy has another leg down (Tech leading the way) inc commodities. The situation in China that has developed over the weekend has really brought forward my timetable to rapidly de-risk my position in the short-term, although I am/was bullish on commodities over medium to long-term.
I now need to reassess my position on commodities and time-frames based upon the range of potential outcomes re: China and the CCP response to the breakout of mass demonstrations. The earning season for the real economy (and re-pricing stocks based upon re-baselined earnings) was always going to be difficult, but any potential for a soft-landing could now free-fall without a parachute if the CCP double-down and crackdown on protests with force.
I am not optimistic that a Tiananmen situation can be avoided.
I see the China situation as the other way round.
Unrest over lockdowns enforce by the government leading to an opening up and demand for minerals and goods expnding.
vulture1 said:
Interestng.
I see the China situation as the other way round.
Unrest over lockdowns enforce by the government leading to an opening up and demand for minerals and goods expanding.
That's what it takes to make a market: differing views I see the China situation as the other way round.
Unrest over lockdowns enforce by the government leading to an opening up and demand for minerals and goods expanding.
You're taking a glass half-full view, whilst I'm firmly in the glass half-empty camp. I would much prefer your outcome, but I cannot reconcile that position with the CCP's actions since Xi JinPing come to power in 2014. More and more authoritarianism, more crackdowns on dissent, and following other political trends, a lemming like idiocy of doubling down on idiotic policies [Zero COVID].
The implicit social contract between the CCP and the people has been broken [growth]. Hence, ever stricter and tighter security apparatus.
I also do not believe that commodity demand will be driven by China. Given the real estate bubble that the CCP are trying to deflate, any commodity growth will more likely be from the West, driven by decoupling supply chains and the drive to net zero. There is a massive capacity shortage caused by years and years of myopia - the same myopia that failed to recognise the strategic error of Nord Stream II - malinvestment of capital, low interest rate regime, and sun-lighting specific sectors without adequate replacement.
Whilst I still believe that there is merit to the commodity thesis, we need to look at the commodity space and focus on specific commodities in terms of supply & demand mismatch [under investment]. There are a lot of short-term headwinds that make me very bearish, and force me to re-examine the validity of the commodity thesis with reference to timescales.
My wariness would lie in establishing just how significant these protestations are. Western media lives for peoples' revolutions, they're never more priapismic with joy and busy dusting off their immortal line collections and practicing their solemn faces than when there is a whiff of people being shot. These are the events that deliver eternal industry fame, book deals and invitations to be on quiz shows. 
My assumption was that if there is a relaxation in Covid restrictions then the pressure would be lifted on the tat supply inflation around the same time that tat demand is falling in the West due to tat tokens being used to ward off bailiffs which would lead to over supply and discounting and a lowering of many inflationary pressures, alleviating the need for excess rate rises etc?
My assumption was that if there is a relaxation in Covid restrictions then the pressure would be lifted on the tat supply inflation around the same time that tat demand is falling in the West due to tat tokens being used to ward off bailiffs which would lead to over supply and discounting and a lowering of many inflationary pressures, alleviating the need for excess rate rises etc?
vulture1 said:
putonghua73 said:
Been a while since I last visited.
My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.
As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash. What changed? I was cognisant that we could be in a Santa rally, and that the real economy has another leg down (Tech leading the way) inc commodities. The situation in China that has developed over the weekend has really brought forward my timetable to rapidly de-risk my position in the short-term, although I am/was bullish on commodities over medium to long-term.
I now need to reassess my position on commodities and time-frames based upon the range of potential outcomes re: China and the CCP response to the breakout of mass demonstrations. The earning season for the real economy (and re-pricing stocks based upon re-baselined earnings) was always going to be difficult, but any potential for a soft-landing could now free-fall without a parachute if the CCP double-down and crackdown on protests with force.
I am not optimistic that a Tiananmen situation can be avoided.
Interestng.My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.
As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash. What changed? I was cognisant that we could be in a Santa rally, and that the real economy has another leg down (Tech leading the way) inc commodities. The situation in China that has developed over the weekend has really brought forward my timetable to rapidly de-risk my position in the short-term, although I am/was bullish on commodities over medium to long-term.
I now need to reassess my position on commodities and time-frames based upon the range of potential outcomes re: China and the CCP response to the breakout of mass demonstrations. The earning season for the real economy (and re-pricing stocks based upon re-baselined earnings) was always going to be difficult, but any potential for a soft-landing could now free-fall without a parachute if the CCP double-down and crackdown on protests with force.
I am not optimistic that a Tiananmen situation can be avoided.
I see the China situation as the other way round.
Unrest over lockdowns enforce by the government leading to an opening up and demand for minerals and goods expnding.
gotoPzero said:
sideways sid said:
gotoPzero said:
VIX trying to push down through 20. I think the next 2-4 weeks might be interesting.
Doesn't VIX falling suggest the opposite? Uninteresting markets not moving around much? If it pushes through and stays below 20 we are good.
If it bounces off 20 the next stop is probably 30+
Its witching friday on the 16th... so might get interesting just before we might see a bit of a rally esp if we see a .5 rise.
Then santa rally till Christmas? Who knows!
gotoPzero said:
VIX +11% so far this week now at 22.
Its witching friday on the 16th... so might get interesting just before we might see a bit of a rally esp if we see a .5 rise.
Then santa rally till Christmas? Who knows!
Santa rally was short last year and started on the 20th of Dec iircIts witching friday on the 16th... so might get interesting just before we might see a bit of a rally esp if we see a .5 rise.
Then santa rally till Christmas? Who knows!
Central Bank Finds $80T of Synthetic Shares/Hidden Debt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_a9F3Cu28U
I'm guessing this is not 'a good thing' and could potentially have some impacts...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_a9F3Cu28U
I'm guessing this is not 'a good thing' and could potentially have some impacts...
putonghua73 said:
Been a while since I last visited.
My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.
As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash.
My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.
As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash.
Interesting. You have become negative on Silver and Mining, although not completely and positive on cash, but not completely.
I have never had any involvement with silver or mining, so apart from the cyclical aspect, I do not have any knowledge about what is going on in those markets.
Do you keep annual records of your overall investment performance ?
I have always found that to be the most satisfactory way to accurately monitor progress.
Total value of everything on 1st Jan., then a weekly percentage change figure through to the year end on 31 Dec., before starting at zero again for the following year. Simple, but produces a 'picture' over the long-term.
Often on PH, someone says for example, I am X% up since purchase, which might be very good, but not easy for them to really be certain.
Looking at the individual components is not of too much help either. I consider the overall annual percentage change to be the most important figure.
RSTurboPaul said:
Central Bank Finds $80T of Synthetic Shares/Hidden Debt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_a9F3Cu28U
I'm guessing this is not 'a good thing' and could potentially have some impacts...
And you know about the BIS already?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_a9F3Cu28U
I'm guessing this is not 'a good thing' and could potentially have some impacts...
FishAndChips said:
Risen from the depths.
Any interesting stocks anyone is currently looking at? I received some marketting from fidelity this morning (stocks to watch, all banking) and reminded me I'm still sitting on a relatively large cash pile.
Anyone else, what are you doing?
Tesco for dividend and Sainsbury's for it's lower P/E although I personally think (well, analysts think) that Tesco has more upsideAny interesting stocks anyone is currently looking at? I received some marketting from fidelity this morning (stocks to watch, all banking) and reminded me I'm still sitting on a relatively large cash pile.
Anyone else, what are you doing?
Both have relatively low risk to the downside, Tesco has plenty of room to the upside, and Sainsbury's is still ripe for a takeover.
People can cut many things when times are tight but food is a basic necessity.
2 strong businesses that can weather any storm but Tesco gets the stronger vote for me due to a reasonable 5% ish dividend.
Tesco just needs to get past £2.50 resistance area and it's up and away to the £2.80 area in short order with £3 a very possible 12 month target, which is a 20% gain from today's price.
It's a risk off free money investment really compared to most other things.
My only dilemma right now is that I just bought a car at £30k and took a PCP deal to get the VW finance incentive with the view to just pay it off straight away.
I'm reluctant to sell some shares right now to pay for it, as I feel they'll outperform the cost of the finance on the car.
Decisions decisions.
dimots said:
Intel would look to be an obvious buy.
Hi Dimots,You might want to dig a bit deeper to assess the risks with INTC. Generally speaking, the company is now paying the price for diverting their R&D budgets (decade) to paying dividends rather than maintaining the technological lead over AMD, QCOM and NVDA. In fact INTC having failed to produce next gen nodes, have contracted out said manufacturing to TSMC. A bit of an indictment on their once superior manufacturing capability. This has left Intel with the commodity chip market vs the real gravy being in the super fast cutting edge chips used in Data Centre and Edge AI and HPC applications.
Cheers
Adam
To me right now one of the biggest bubble signs is the new Lotus Technology EV SPAC.
Apart from SPACs being some of the worst scams in recent history, the whole valuation of LOT seems like fantasy built on top of the wider EV valuation hype. Admittedly they're not a fictional business like some of the other EV firms but even so...
Some people will profit from the launch but anyone buying in will surely incinerate their cash?
Apart from SPACs being some of the worst scams in recent history, the whole valuation of LOT seems like fantasy built on top of the wider EV valuation hype. Admittedly they're not a fictional business like some of the other EV firms but even so...
Some people will profit from the launch but anyone buying in will surely incinerate their cash?
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