Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst

Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst



11,296 posts

168 months

Sunday 5th February
quotequote all
nunpuncher said:
vulture1 said:
putonghua73 said:
Been a while since I last visited.

My portfolio was: 53% Silver, 40% Mining, and 7% Cash.

As of around 10:00 this morning, it is now 12.5% Silver, 12.5 Mining, and 75% Cash. What changed? I was cognisant that we could be in a Santa rally, and that the real economy has another leg down (Tech leading the way) inc commodities. The situation in China that has developed over the weekend has really brought forward my timetable to rapidly de-risk my position in the short-term, although I am/was bullish on commodities over medium to long-term.

I now need to reassess my position on commodities and time-frames based upon the range of potential outcomes re: China and the CCP response to the breakout of mass demonstrations. The earning season for the real economy (and re-pricing stocks based upon re-baselined earnings) was always going to be difficult, but any potential for a soft-landing could now free-fall without a parachute if the CCP double-down and crackdown on protests with force.

I am not optimistic that a Tiananmen situation can be avoided.

I see the China situation as the other way round.

Unrest over lockdowns enforce by the government leading to an opening up and demand for minerals and goods expnding.
I'm in the glass half empty camp as well. Such regimes are built on never backing down, never showing weakness.
What do we think it seems they actually did back down but of course it was spun as a different way to not look like it.