Crypto Currency Thread (Vol.2)

[dimots]

Ok it's not illusory money, that's hyperbole. But it's not money in the bank either, it's a complex mess of debt, loans, regulation, debasement, government, war, fraud and profit.

I'm much more optimistic about the resolution of the debt spiral...there's no way it can continue indefinitely. Imagine a future 500 or 1000 years from now...is the debt still mounting? I think hyperbitcoinization is a near certainty. Couldn't tell you when, but eventually.

Anyway...halving day!

[Condi]

dimots said:

Ok it's not illusory money, that's hyperbole. But it's not money in the bank either, it's a complex mess of debt, loans, regulation, debasement, government, war, fraud and profit.

Yes, but how does Bitcoin solve any of that?

You can already borrow bitcoin (debt/loans), btc is becoming more controlled (regulation), there will always be central banks and taxes (government), there will always be fighting (war), bitcoin is already famous for it's scams (fraud), and businesses are still going to be allowed to make money (profit)!!

The only one it comes close to solving is debasement, which you could very easily argue is not very helpful as with the money supply capped at 21m then (assuming everyone uses it), it will always go up in value and why would anyone spend something which is almost certain to go up in value? The whole reason that inflation is targeted at 2% is so that things are more expensive in the future than they are now, and it encourages people to spend. Deflation, when people think things are going to be cheaper later, is not economically desirable.

[OoopsVoss]

dimots said:

Ok it's not illusory money, that's hyperbole. But it's not money in the bank either, it's a complex mess of debt, loans, regulation, debasement, government, war, fraud and profit.

I'm much more optimistic about the resolution of the debt spiral...there's no way it can continue indefinitely. Imagine a future 500 or 1000 years from now...is the debt still mounting? I think hyperbitcoinization is a near certainty. Couldn't tell you when, but eventually.

Anyway...halving day!

Happy "Halving Day"!

[dimots]

Condi said:

Yes, but how does Bitcoin solve any of that?

You can already borrow bitcoin (debt/loans), btc is becoming more controlled (regulation), there will always be central banks and taxes (government), there will always be fighting (war), bitcoin is already famous for it's scams (fraud), and businesses are still going to be allowed to make money (profit)!!

The only one it comes close to solving is debasement, which you could very easily argue is not very helpful as with the money supply capped at 21m then (assuming everyone uses it), it will always go up in value and why would anyone spend something which is almost certain to go up in value? The whole reason that inflation is targeted at 2% is so that things are more expensive in the future than they are now, and it encourages people to spend. Deflation, when people think things are going to be cheaper later, is not economically desirable.

Do some reading about triple entry accounting. Then imagine that the world's most powerful decentralized non-state affiliated computer network is triple entry accounting on a public ledger for everyone.

[Condi]

dimots said:

Do some reading about triple entry accounting. Then imagine that the world's most powerful decentralized non-state affiliated computer network is triple entry accounting on a public ledger for everyone.

You've not answer the question. Triple entry accounting is precisely that - accounting; simply a record of what happens.

So, as per the original question, how does Bitcoin do anything about the complex mess of debt, loans, regulation, debasement, government, war, fraud and profit? Yes, it may record that complex mess better, but it's not as if we don't understand where the money is today. We know it is debt, loans, fraud, taxes and spent on wars, it's all there, recorded.

[dimots]

Condi said:

You've not answer the question. Triple entry accounting is precisely that - accounting; simply a record of what happens.

So, as per the original question, how does Bitcoin do anything about the complex mess of debt, loans, regulation, debasement, government, war, fraud and profit? Yes, it may record that complex mess better, but it's not as if we don't understand where the money is today. We know it is debt, loans, fraud, taxes and spent on wars, it's all there, recorded.

No it isn’t.

[Condi]

dimots said:

No it isn’t.

You're going to have to explain more.

Debt, loans, profit, etc are not "problems" to be solved. They're required parts of a capitalist economy and are essential to the way our world functions.
Government/taxes are an essential part of living with other people in a society and exist for the greater good, unless you don't believe in funding a fire service until your house burns down.
Fraud is arguably not great, but is a human problem that Bitcoin will not solve.
War is equally not great, but is also a human problem, that Bitcoin will not solve.

So please, do explain. You've got very slopey shoulders when it comes to backing up your claims, otherwise it just looks like another solution looking for a problem.

This explanation of triple entry accounting backs up my assertion that it is simply a (better?) record of existing transactions and thus does nothing about anything you mentioned above. Come on Dimots - up your game, you're just posting nonsense now.

https://www.eduyush.com/en-us/blogs/digital-skills...

[Blown2CV]

g4ry13 said:

Blown2CV said:

but where are ma gainz tho

If you'd bought yesterday when you posted the same thing, your 'gainz' would be over 4%.

... and if I'd bought a week prior?

[Blown2CV]

dimots said:

A44RON said:

You flounce every time at the mention of testing Bitcoin's (lack of) privacy and fungibility.

You are an embarrassment to this thread and a charlatan wannabe anarcho-capitalist.

You claim to be pro-freedom taking the fight to central banks & governments and yet you rim a public-ledger crypto coin that’s been corrupted by Blackrock and other mainstream institutions. At least be honest on here and either confess 1). you don’t know what you’re talking about. or 2). that you just buy Bitcoin because you just want numbers to go up.

I’ve never came across anyone in a thread before that spouts as much hypocrisy as you. I’m sure you will reply with “Bitcoin is private!” again shortly…

Bitcoin has all the hashpower, and most of the value in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. You seem completely oblivious to the fact that bitcoin is drawing value from the legacy financial system into the crypto ecosystem and is therefore doings God's work for all crypto. If you think this would have happened with Monero you are delusional.

With technologies like wrapped coins, coinjoin, smart contracts, atomic swaps, you will soon see that value locked on the bitcoin blockchain being available across the entire crypto ecosystem through permissionless decentralised exchanges. Monero shills might cry 'I'm not swapping my clean $1 monero for dirty $trillion BTC' but really there's going to be no issue and economics will determine the market.

On another point, of course I can swap my btc to Monero any time I like. I don't because the KYC element is useful to me at this time. I am not a bitcoin maxi because I want to make more money, I am a bitcoin maxi because it is patently obvious that bitcoin is going to become the world's resver asset and in that capacity it is a good thing for it to have some level of transparency.

this post right there is the exact reason why bitcoin will never be adopted as a mainstream currency by the vast majority of people. No one wants to have to decode all this drivel and argue the toss just to be able to turn their working week into breakfast cereal, childcare and netflix.

[dimots]

Blown2CV said:

this post right there is the exact reason why bitcoin will never be adopted as a mainstream currency by the vast majority of people. No one wants to have to decode all this drivel and argue the toss just to be able to turn their working week into breakfast cereal, childcare and netflix.

Don't worry dear you won't have to understand it.

[Blown2CV]

dimots said:

Blown2CV said:

this post right there is the exact reason why bitcoin will never be adopted as a mainstream currency by the vast majority of people. No one wants to have to decode all this drivel and argue the toss just to be able to turn their working week into breakfast cereal, childcare and netflix.

Don't worry dear you won't have to understand it.

but that is where you repeatedly get it entirely and catastrophically wrong (dear). Unless you can get buy in from people who don't understand it, people who don't want to understand it, and people who cannot understand it, you will never ever see this mainstream and widespread adoption as a payments instrument that you lot keep bleating about.

If you keep on saying you don't need them to get involved or be bought in, then it is very obvious to me that you really only just see this as an investment, and not a currency at all.

[RichTT]

Just checking in on the thread. Good to see nothing has changed. Carry on chaps.

[greengreenwood7]

dimots said:

Blown2CV said:

this post right there is the exact reason why bitcoin will never be adopted as a mainstream currency by the vast majority of people. No one wants to have to decode all this drivel and argue the toss just to be able to turn their working week into breakfast cereal, childcare and netflix.

and herein lies a divergence, which is propogated by the title of this sub-forum/thread; 'Crypto currency'....
Many will argue that BTC is an asset, not a currency per se, and that seems fair enough - as it's been classified as an Asset by the SEC etc. And for sure the majority of folks that view it in that manner have little interest in parting with it.

Others talk about transacting using either BTC, or the btc network - the latter doesn't even need the particpants to be btc believers/holders, just that for that transaction they'll use the BTc network rails - for speed and cost.

The rest of the crypro space is a jumbled web, from which a few , ie/ a handful in comparative numbers - have and will have a proper use case for society. One thing is clear IMo, BTC shouldn't be lumped into the general crypto pool when it's being thought of & discussed.

I doubt that the likes of blackrock/fidelity etc in the US and others globally have skimped on their research. If they had any concerns about it's merits, i'd imagine that they'd have opted for safety in not pushing for the ETF approval - on the basis that they wouldn't want a BTC stshow to come and bite them in the backside from a PR perspective.
On the contrary, they're promoting it as an asset class with recommended % allocations.

Ironically given the performance of BTC and it's proxies such as the miners & mstr, that seems an overlooked topic in these Finance pages. Hell, i'd have thought that even those that don't believe in it's long term fundamental useage would be happy playing with a % of their portfolio during this cycle.

[funinhounslow]

greengreenwood7 said:

Ironically given the performance of BTC and its proxies such as the miners & mstr, that seems an overlooked topic in these Finance pages. Hell, i'd have thought that even those that don't believe in its long term fundamental useage would be happy playing with a % of their portfolio during this cycle.

Probably viewed by many as too risky and complicated. It’s not straightforward to buy Bitcoin- all this talk of hot wallets, cold wallets, “coinjoin”, “atomic swaps” is just baffling to most people. Then you run the risk of putting your hard earned in the next FTX…

Most people are quite happy with index trackers wrapped in an ISA and/or SIPP. Simple, tax efficient and you’re dealing with reputable companies…

Then there’s the question of what is Bitcoin actually for - a “currency” that you can’t buy anything with. Every time this question gets asked it gets ignored or the questioner is insulted.

Plus there’s volatility- if a company had a share price that looks like this I wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole…



You’d be better off burying a kilo of gold in your back garden.

[greengreenwood7]

funinhounslow said:

greengreenwood7 said:

Ironically given the performance of BTC and its proxies such as the miners & mstr, that seems an overlooked topic in these Finance pages. Hell, i'd have thought that even those that don't believe in its long term fundamental useage would be happy playing with a % of their portfolio during this cycle.

Probably viewed by many as too risky and complicated. It’s not straightforward to buy Bitcoin- all this talk of hot wallets, cold wallets, “coinjoin”, “atomic swaps” is just baffling to most people. Then you run the risk of putting your hard earned in the next FTX…

Most people are quite happy with index trackers wrapped in an ISA and/or SIPP. Simple, tax efficient and you’re dealing with reputable companies…

Then there’s the question of what is Bitcoin actually for - a “currency” that you can’t buy anything with. Every time this question gets asked it gets ignored or the questioner is insulted.

Plus there’s volatility- if a company had a share price that looks like this I wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole…

well it's as complicated as anyone wants to make it - the easy way is just to buy into one of the ETF's, and no, that can't be done via a taw wrapper - but can be done via a gen investment account.

as for index trackers, that's what i 'don't get', i understand the rationale of having some monies in those funds, but the potential for above average gains is lost - whether that's via BTC or directly being in top performing assets.

For volatility, sure as buy and hold one would have to have absolute conviction and a long enough time horizon to smooth out the dips; But from a trading perspective, even if only held for a cple of years before rotating into 'whatever else' - it's the volatility that can provide exceptional gains. Which is why umpteen financial companies buy into the BTC miners - to reap the massive multiple gains during the bull markets.

as to the point about 'currency' - that comes back to what people label it - personally i think it's mislabeled.
We don't call fine art/collectibles a currency, nor gold etc - they're assets that can be traded - so's BTC; just depends on what ones goals & beliefs are.

[funinhounslow]

greengreenwood7 said:

well it's as complicated as anyone wants to make it - the easy way is just to buy into one of the ETF's, and no, that can't be done via a taw wrapper - but can be done via a gen investment account.

as for index trackers, that's what i 'don't get', i understand the rationale of having some monies in those funds, but the potential for above average gains is lost - whether that's via BTC or directly being in top performing assets.

For volatility, sure as buy and hold one would have to have absolute conviction and a long enough time horizon to smooth out the dips; But from a trading perspective, even if only held for a cple of years before rotating into 'whatever else' - it's the volatility that can provide exceptional gains. Which is why umpteen financial companies buy into the BTC miners - to reap the massive multiple gains during the bull markets.

as to the point about 'currency' - that comes back to what people label it - personally i think it's mislabeled.
We don't call fine art/collectibles a currency, nor gold etc - they're assets that can be traded - so's BTC; just depends on what ones goals & beliefs are.

But with stocks and shares trying to 'time the market' is generally seen as a terrible idea - and isn't Bitcoin a 'zero sum game' so for every exceptional gain there's a balancing exceptional loss?

[OoopsVoss]

greengreenwood7 said:

well it's as complicated as anyone wants to make it - the easy way is just to buy into one of the ETF's, and no, that can't be done via a taw wrapper - but can be done via a gen investment account.

as for index trackers, that's what i 'don't get', i understand the rationale of having some monies in those funds, but the potential for above average gains is lost - whether that's via BTC or directly being in top performing assets.

For volatility, sure as buy and hold one would have to have absolute conviction and a long enough time horizon to smooth out the dips; But from a trading perspective, even if only held for a cple of years before rotating into 'whatever else' - it's the volatility that can provide exceptional gains. Which is why umpteen financial companies buy into the BTC miners - to reap the massive multiple gains during the bull markets.

as to the point about 'currency' - that comes back to what people label it - personally i think it's mislabeled.
We don't call fine art/collectibles a currency, nor gold etc - they're assets that can be traded - so's BTC; just depends on what ones goals & beliefs are.

Actually, it is complicated. ETFs don't come in 1 flavour, there are lots of different types - all with different risks. There are fully replicated / physically backed to leveraged. Furthermore, depends on what the underlying (and structure is) - there can be a mass of tail risks. And that's before you start the process of managing delta. That massive upside asset appreciation is great, but displaying that level of vol becomes a problem for leveraging it (as its stressed BOTH ways).

Accessing those sentiment gains via IBIT or other ETFs is far play, but I think the loss of principal might be a touch greater than Blackrock are presenting it (although again you picks you asset accoring to risk profile). Blackrock pitches the IBIT ETF as largely an access play and operationally less risky model to hold BTC - which in itself is interesting. Only at the end of the small print do they talk loss of principal.

And even if I'm not a fan of BTC, for most gaining exposure (or upside to not offend) - doing it via an ETF makes a lot of sense.

[Scootersp]

OoopsVoss said:

Blackrock pitches the IBIT ETF as largely an access play and operationally less risky model to hold BTC - which in itself is interesting. Only at the end of the small print do they talk loss of principal.

And even if I'm not a fan of BTC, for most gaining exposure (or upside to not offend) - doing it via an ETF makes a lot of sense.

ETF's aren't setup for us per se, sold to us as convenient ways to access a market and they 100% are but if some introduce leverage then you start to run the risk of a fractional system, you think you are buying it, you benefit from any price gains, and you can exit again but you don't always hold the 'asset' behind the ETF, so if the music stops (and this is a significant part of the original Bitcoin thesis - outside the system to an extent) you probably don't have/won't get it.

I see this everywhere, Blackrock, JP Morgan (silver particularly), they end up holding/owning the assets and we all buy in the ETF's (because they are convenient and the "real thing") which in normal times we get to track the price moves and see the gains/losses then they take a cut all this time, whilst also having the ultimate value in their possession, a win win.

Read these extracts from a Gold ETF

SPDR Gold Trust https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/media/GLD/file/SPDR...

"Proceeds received by the Trust from the issuance and sale of
Baskets consist of gold and, possibly from time to time, cash.
Pursuant to the Trust Indenture, during the life of the Trust the gold
and any cash will only be (1) held by the Trust, (2) distributed to
Authorized Participants in connection with the redemption of
Baskets or (3) sold or [b]disbursed as needed to pay the Trust’s
ongoing expenses.[/b]"

So some gold sold to fund the funds expenses, pay salaries etc etc......over time the Gold backing your gold "shares" diminishes.

Then there is a whole section on the fund being split into baskets of shares and the Gold in these baskets can only be added or redeemed by Authorized participants

"As of the
date of this prospectus, Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC,
Goldman, Sachs & Co., Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing,
L.P., HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC,
Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., Morgan Stanley & Co.
LLC, RBC Capital Markets LLC, UBS Securities LLC and Virtu
Americas LLC are the only Authorized Participants"

So not little you!

"The custodian is HSBC Bank plc (the “Custodian”) and is responsible for the safekeeping of the Trust’s gold bars
transferred to it in connection with the creation of Baskets by Authorized Participants. The Custodian also
1
facilitates the transfer of gold in and out of the Trust through gold accounts it maintains for Authorized
Participants and the Trust. The Custodian is a market maker, clearer and approved weigher under the rules of the
LBMA"


Sounds ok but


"Gold bars may be held by one or more subcustodians appointed by the Custodian, or employed by the
subcustodians appointed by the Custodian, until it is transported to the Custodian’s London vault premises"

"The Trust may not have adequate sources of recovery if its gold is lost, damaged, stolen or destroyed and
recovery may be limited, even in the event of fraud, to the market value of the gold at the time the fraud is
discovered.

Shareholders’ recourse against the Trust, the Trustee and the Sponsor, under New York law, the Custodian, under
English law, and any subcustodians under the law governing their custody operations is limited. The Trust does
not insure its gold. The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as
it considers appropriate which does not cover the full amount of gold. The Trust is not a beneficiary of any such
insurance and does not have the ability to dictate the existence, nature or amount of coverage. Therefore,
Shareholders cannot be assured that the Custodian will maintain adequate insurance or any insurance with respect
to the gold held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. In addition, the Custodian and the Trustee do not require
any direct or indirect subcustodians to be insured or bonded with respect to their custodial activities or in respect
of the gold held by them on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the Trust’s
gold which is not covered by insurance and for which no person is liable in damages."

"If any subcustodian which holds gold on a temporary basis does not exercise due care in the safekeeping of the
Trust’s gold bars, the ability of the Trustee or the Custodian to recover damages against such subcustodian may
be limited to only such recourse, if any, as may be available under applicable English law or other applicable
law. If the Trustee’s or the Custodian’s recourse against the subcustodian is so limited, the Trust may not be
adequately compensated for the loss"

"Neither the Shareholders nor any Authorized Participant has a right under the Custody Agreements to assert a
claim of the Trustee against the Custodian or any subcustodian; claims under the Custody Agreements may only
be asserted by the Trustee on behalf of the Trust.
Because neither the Trustee nor the Custodian oversees or monitors the activities of subcustodians who
may temporarily hold the Trust’s gold bars until transported to the Custodian’s London vault, failure by
the subcustodians to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the Trust’s gold bars could result in a loss to
the Trust."



So ETF's are convenient and good to track price movements, but when did Wall Street truly do anything for you and not their gain.

[OoopsVoss]

Yes, there is a lot of divergent risk. Full replicating and physically backed ETFs are relatively low risk - with only underlying market liquidity and depth being the biggest risks. Even building those are tricky and you need to avoid tracking errors. Leveraged ETFs are not (IMHO) a retail product, the risks are far greater - but again we come back to the concepts of suitability and appropriateness - and just because an asset exists, doesn't mean its good for all.

[Mr Whippy]

Exactly, bitcoin via etf is just for their benefit.

They’ll see all these exchanges charging a spread and they can get in on it now.

Then leverage built into it.

Then manipulate the price (as per gold/silver) because it’s more ‘convenient’ to own the paper vs the real.


Bitcoin is screwed now it’s been adopted like this.

It was already a bit screwed because of greed, but now it’s got Wall Street enabling that greed to be tapped and used to influence its price.

Retailers just swap btc via stripe or whatever at point of sale.

BTC is just an abstraction now. It’s not its own thing.

The only appeal drawing people in is the fact you ‘could’ make £££

Who buys in now for the fundamental purpose of it?



Funny how people also now speak of bitcoin like the king, when a few years back it was all the hype coins and bitcoin was a dead duck… for ‘reasons’

Now bitcoin is awesome for ‘reasons’


I bet bitcoin will fork once the ETFs and WS start to fk it up.

Then the doors open for a better crypto that is protected from all the rubbish that WS is foisting upon it.