When/Will house prices cool down?
Discussion
Hah - in my (tech) firm, as of last week desks now have QR codes to scan. Supposedly to check in/ check out of your hot desk, but as it came immediately after a blast from the CEO how we were missing out on the serendipity of inter office interactions...
Luckily/ unluckily for me, I spend decent amount of time at clients, and its been agreed that that counts as 'in office'. But our main campus in France is a ghost town by all accounts.
Luckily/ unluckily for me, I spend decent amount of time at clients, and its been agreed that that counts as 'in office'. But our main campus in France is a ghost town by all accounts.
havoc said:
These two highlight a potential issue in trying to cool the housing market down - unless / until BOTH government and big corporates can grasp this particular nettle and either reduce pay for 'remote'* workers or force said workers to be a commutable distance from the office, you're going to see this outflow of high-income (and potentially asset-rich, if they own London property) individuals from London to 'nicer' parts of the country, inflating prices further.
* wholly or nearly-so.
It's levelling up though. The migrating of people out of the SE, back to the regions but taking higher paid jobs with them. * wholly or nearly-so.
People seem to be very keen to be levelled up and have house prices akin to London and plumbers and electricians that charge £500 a day. Personally, I don't see the huge benefit in paying even more for stuff but each to their own.
DonkeyApple said:
wormus said:
I think it depends on what you do. I still work out of central London 3 days per week, with 2 wfh, which has become our policy. We also have offices all over the country with hubs in the main cities which I visit. The salaries of London vs Manchester or Leeds for example are the same for software engineers (£700-£800/day) and even places like Birmingham are becoming more competitive. London has more tourists of course but the idea you have to work there to get ahead is about 20 years out of date. I work in Digital tech, we don’t use off shore as it doesn’t work for what we do, it never really has.
Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Yup. It's a practice that has been growing since the 90s but it is now expanding outside of just IT/digital as many clerical roles now have no great requirement to be physically located in the centre of a hugely expensive city. Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Edited by wormus on Friday 8th March 09:02
t.It's perfectly possible to build a very successful career no where near the place, and to therefore live somewhere altogether more pleasant, and where you can still go out and be on proper driving roads very quickly.
supersport said:
Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.
It's perfectly possible to build a very successful career no where near the place, and to therefore live somewhere altogether more pleasant, and where you can still go out and be on proper driving roads very quickly.
Absolutely. No need to be somewhere we don't want to be. It's the great luxury of being spaffed out where we have been. What I've never understood is the people who migrate to London, realise it's not for them and then don't leave. As you say, smart and hard working people can create opportunity anywhere. t.It's perfectly possible to build a very successful career no where near the place, and to therefore live somewhere altogether more pleasant, and where you can still go out and be on proper driving roads very quickly.
Arguably, when younger, all the attractive girls move to London from the regions, rendering them not much more than sausage and pig fests.
supersport said:
Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.
5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.t.Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.
Once, and never again.
And some people do that several times a week!
Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.
G-wiz said:
supersport said:
Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.
5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.t.Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.
Once, and never again.
And some people do that several times a week!
Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.
Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship
LastPoster said:
Got on the train in Bath at 7.13 earlier this week into Paddington. In the clients office at 9.00 by Liverpool St
Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship
Hope you're paid by the hour and not doing work outside of your working hours...Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship
pb8g09 said:
LastPoster said:
Got on the train in Bath at 7.13 earlier this week into Paddington. In the clients office at 9.00 by Liverpool St
Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship
Hope you're paid by the hour and not doing work outside of your working hours...Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship
I'm comfortable with my working arrangements thanks (note that I'm posting on PH on what are working hours for some, as are you)
G-wiz said:
supersport said:
Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.
5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.t.Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.
Once, and never again.
And some people do that several times a week!
Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.
DonkeyApple said:
It's levelling up though. The migrating of people out of the SE, back to the regions but taking higher paid jobs with them.
People seem to be very keen to be levelled up and have house prices akin to London and plumbers and electricians that charge £500 a day. Personally, I don't see the huge benefit in paying even more for stuff but each to their own.
No, it's nothing of the sort.People seem to be very keen to be levelled up and have house prices akin to London and plumbers and electricians that charge £500 a day. Personally, I don't see the huge benefit in paying even more for stuff but each to their own.
Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).
it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.
havoc said:
No, it's nothing of the sort.
Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).
it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.
Obviously that will never happen. And those Dorset locals didn’t have to flog their homes when the money came knocking. Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).
it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.
LastPoster said:
G-wiz said:
supersport said:
Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.
5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.t.Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.
Once, and never again.
And some people do that several times a week!
Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.
Sat and did some work on a nearly new train then a nearly new line across London. Not really a hardship
Every time I’ve changed jobs I’ve cut my time to work considerably. I like that I can walk to work and my son could walk / cycle to school.
But that has absolutely itching to do with house prices dropping. I would pay a premium for that though, especially with easy access to the countryside for driving purposes and town for fun purposes.
okgo said:
havoc said:
No, it's nothing of the sort.
Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).
it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.
Obviously that will never happen. And those Dorset locals didn’t have to flog their homes when the money came knocking. Levelling up is where those LOCAL to the regions get the same opportunities as those in the City(ies).
it's not when the London set up sticks and decide to take over other nice areas the same way they have with Dorset, simply because they've more asset value and more purchasing power.
I mean the same (breadth of) career opportunities as for those who live/work in the SE, and to an extent (not ever going to be equal) the same leisure opportunities / travel network. We're in danger of becoming like France where Paris is a completely different place to the rest of the country, and it's almost "Paris vs the Departments".
havoc said:
I don't mean the same money. That would be undesirable and unrealistic.
I mean the same (breadth of) career opportunities as for those who live/work in the SE, and to an extent (not ever going to be equal) the same leisure opportunities / travel network. We're in danger of becoming like France where Paris is a completely different place to the rest of the country, and it's almost "Paris vs the Departments".
I think we're already there, frankly. And it's not a good thing.I mean the same (breadth of) career opportunities as for those who live/work in the SE, and to an extent (not ever going to be equal) the same leisure opportunities / travel network. We're in danger of becoming like France where Paris is a completely different place to the rest of the country, and it's almost "Paris vs the Departments".
havoc said:
I don't mean the same money. That would be undesirable and unrealistic.
I mean the same (breadth of) career opportunities as for those who live/work in the SE, and to an extent (not ever going to be equal) the same leisure opportunities / travel network. We're in danger of becoming like France where Paris is a completely different place to the rest of the country, and it's almost "Paris vs the Departments".
Not sure France is that contrasted economically. The "decentralisation" efforts did yield some good results.I mean the same (breadth of) career opportunities as for those who live/work in the SE, and to an extent (not ever going to be equal) the same leisure opportunities / travel network. We're in danger of becoming like France where Paris is a completely different place to the rest of the country, and it's almost "Paris vs the Departments".
In fact some serious job creations in provincial towns like Nantes, Rennes, Strasbourg, Toulouse, Montpellier etc... where you get excellent quality of life too, affordable property (and food prices) and a proper transport system.
soupdragon1 said:
DonkeyApple said:
But there is almost no logic to wanting values to increase and plenty of logic in wanting values to stagnate and generally fall in real terms over a suitable period of time.
Stagnation keeps out the speculators while allowing non speculators to plan how, when and where they buy in. It allows the market to return to being about people having a home not a leveraged punt on a market.
I feel like this should be a strategic Govt target. Somehow. Govt only have blunt tools of course but if we can just let wages catch up for a minute, like you say, then it becomes a normal market again.Stagnation keeps out the speculators while allowing non speculators to plan how, when and where they buy in. It allows the market to return to being about people having a home not a leveraged punt on a market.
On the other discussion point around WFH and where you live. Here in NI, prices are increasing a bit too fast for my liking and I've an 18 and 13 year old at home who will be wanting their own house in the future. Dublin house prices have got out of hand and plenty of global tech in Dublin which is only a 1 hr drive from the NI border so that 1 or 2 trips to the office is no big deal now. London is obviously crazy prices and where I live (2 miles from the airport) there are plenty of Londoners buying houses and commuting to the office. So we're getting hit from GB and ROI in terms of people wanting to come and buy our houses.
The estate agents are highlighting proximity to the airport as key features in property listings now, clearly targetting aeroplane commutes. The flights are really cheap if you have to pay yourself, but even better if its on company expenses. I commute too, although only a couple of times a quarter. If I've a 7am flight, I leave the house at 6.15am and I'm at the departure gate at 6.30am. If the flight leaves on schedule, I'm in London City for just after 8am. Still a long old day, but if its only sporadic travelling, you can put up with it.
The Govt could easily deleverage the resi property market via a top down approach to further dial out inflationary pressures driven by non essential borrowing. It could be as simple as lowering the lending multiple as the loan amount increases etc.
Whereas interest rates are a really clumsy tool for trying to curb lending, regulation is a scalpel that can perform some precision operations.
You'd just need to get some FCA employees back into the office and then find some that understood what their job was. After years of operating under Bailey, it's all a bit of a mess over there still.
G-wiz said:
5 or 6 years ago, a client needed us to be in their offices for a face to face at 9am, somewhere in central London.
Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.
Once, and never again.
And some people do that several times a week!
Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.
I quite like my run in these days. Just as per using the Tube for decades, my key is to travel when the cleaners and sandwich makers are, never when big clerical migration is on. Took the train into Paddington, then some underground, starting journey at 07:30 ish.
Once, and never again.
And some people do that several times a week!
Nice to have the experience, though, the suffering that these people face. To empathize.
Drive to my middle of nowhere train station around 5am. Park the car in an empty car park, walk onto an empty platform, get into an empty train and go back to sleep. Disembark at a still reasonably quiet Paddington and Tube round to the City. Circle Line still reasonably quiet. Then go for breakfast. A nice relaxing sit at a table, in a comfortable chair, with a view, a pot of coffee, read the papers, start responding to emails etc while all the carnage of people all trying to get to a desk by 9am is going on outside. Then, eventually, wander over to the first meeting of the day. Then if doing two days in then you pick a hotel where colleagues or clients will be out and about for the evening, knowing that when they have to bail to get back out of London, all you have to do is saunter back to the hotel for a nice supper and an early night, unless you're foolish enough to answer that call from a mate you know is a total liability and informs you of an out, out opportunity.
In short, moving around London when the masses are is generally grim but make the choice to be moving around when they aren't and to also take full advantage of just how piss easy everything is and people could get a window into why many people absolutely love London.
Meanwhile, I am taking my children out for dinner tonight to a chain restaurant in a regional town. And that fills me with utter dread. The lifeless, banality, uniformity and predictability of regional towns and cities is dismal beyond belief. All identikit crap holes of utter boredom where the inhabitants plan their nights out months in advance and just repeat the same conversations each time. It's my idea of abject hell. And yet, it is beloved by millions so it is very clearly a 'me' issue. It's just me who is filled with fear and loathing for chain store living.
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