When/Will house prices cool down?
Discussion
Someone (maybe DA) made a point about bulges in employment causing increases in property prices near to the bulges.
I live in North London and used to commute to work in Holborn, but have been completely home based for the last 4 years - we don't have an office any more. The people we employ now are based all over the country (with a few core staff still in London) and they occasionally go abroad but continue to work remotely. For us, it makes no difference where they are, as long as they can be available during our normal working hours or near enough.
I wonder what percentage of others have switched to full WFH and what this might mean for North London 2 bed flat prices over the next 5 years or so.
I live in North London and used to commute to work in Holborn, but have been completely home based for the last 4 years - we don't have an office any more. The people we employ now are based all over the country (with a few core staff still in London) and they occasionally go abroad but continue to work remotely. For us, it makes no difference where they are, as long as they can be available during our normal working hours or near enough.
I wonder what percentage of others have switched to full WFH and what this might mean for North London 2 bed flat prices over the next 5 years or so.
I’m buying in Brighton and prices have contracted a fair bit having been massively inflated by the whole Covid lockdown WFH place by the sea / race for space thing. I read an article which said they were down 5.9% from peak which I can fully believe. I’m under offer on a place which I’m certain would’ve been at least that much more in 2022. I’ve probably paid the best part of 10% more than it would’ve been in 2018 though.
London won’t be hurt for long if indeed it isn’t rising again already - you also must remember the new FTB that want flats in London want it for more than just a short commute to their job.
I’ve noticed many companies have called people back in many cases, Friday is weak still but it’s been full and standing on the northern line the last two days I’ve been in and out as it always was.
I’ve noticed many companies have called people back in many cases, Friday is weak still but it’s been full and standing on the northern line the last two days I’ve been in and out as it always was.
bogie said:
See below for the nationwide average house price sold data adjusted for inflation, looks like current avg prices are back where they were in 2012
The red line is garbage though. It's just a made up swish of a market pen in order to fit someone's narrative. Lines on charts are just voodoo/tea leaf tripe to help flog rubbish to suckers. It's why they dominate as a sales tool in the retail stock trading space. And they're the first go to bit of wholly fabricated evidence a punter goes and creates out of thin air to try and ramp their opinion.
You could use that blue data set to create a suitable graphical plot and then draw absolutely any red line you wanted to argue any belief.
The house price net loons are the same punters making up charts for Tesla, cannabis stocks, crypto and now AI stocks all of which will make them rich without having to do any work while housing should be cheap for them but then become very expensive so they can get rich without doing any work.
The glaring reality these punter types always have to ignore for their dream to work is that if there were to be a house price crash they still wouldn't be buying a property. The people taking advantage will be those who don't need a credit line and those who are much younger.
The irony being that these people love to look to and used history to draw a pretty picture but they won't ever look to and use history to see the reality of which parties benefit from a significant drop in house price values. The answer is there for all to see and they probably know it but it just doesn't fit the narrative.
Arguably, we don't want their peers who have just got on and bought a home being decimated by a large price adjustment just to entertain those who haven't bought a home. All it would achieve would be none of them owning a home. But there is almost no logic to wanting values to increase and plenty of logic in wanting values to stagnate and generally fall in real terms over a suitable period of time.
Stagnation keeps out the speculators while allowing non speculators to plan how, when and where they buy in. It allows the market to return to being about people having a home not a leveraged punt on a market.
Those in their 40s who have spent the last 20+ years as adults choosing not to buy a home on the grounds that they couldn't get the property they felt they were worth or because they believed values would collapse and weirdly the banks would be remotely interested in lending them money at that point but not currently are at a reality crossroads where they need to come to terms with the fact owning a home and spending 25 years paying it off is, at its core, solely about not having to pay rent in retirement.
For 40 somethings who have been choosing not to buy their window is closing.
okgo said:
London won’t be hurt for long if indeed it isn’t rising again already - you also must remember the new FTB that want flats in London want it for more than just a short commute to their job.
I’ve noticed many companies have called people back in many cases, Friday is weak still but it’s been full and standing on the northern line the last two days I’ve been in and out as it always was.
One of the upsides of an employer calling their staff back in is that it opens up the opportunity to renegotiate the London salary of those who moved to a farm in Devon downwards. I’ve noticed many companies have called people back in many cases, Friday is weak still but it’s been full and standing on the northern line the last two days I’ve been in and out as it always was.
It's quite unbelievable how many people left London and moved to the middle of nowhere in the weird devout belief that employers would keep paying them a London salary. It was all very baffling watching so many people seemingly brainwashed by interior design bloggers who had momentarily switched to waffling about the exodus.
Once someone has based themselves sufficient distance from the office that a daily commute is barely plausible then they are no longer a London worker but a remote worker and their salary no longer has to compete against London workers but remote workers in the global market such as Poland, Pakistan etc.
These people have been a pain for employers as they've cost the same to maintain when there has been absolutely no need to keep paying them anywhere close to what they were on. Calling everyone back to the office had the key benefit of forcing a dialog to be opened with these people regarding the change of their contract to reflect their choice to become a developing nations remote worker.
DonkeyApple said:
These people have been a pain for employers as they've cost the same to maintain when there has been absolutely no need to keep paying them anywhere close to what they were on. Calling everyone back to the office had the key benefit of forcing a dialog to be opened with these people regarding the change of their contract to reflect their choice to become a developing nations remote worker.
That I agree wholeheartedly with. There's an entire swathe of back-office types* who are throroughly taking the piss**.* Yes, I am one, but I still need to commute part-time.
* Makes a change from it being the employer, I suppose.
DonkeyApple said:
One of the upsides of an employer calling their staff back in is that it opens up the opportunity to renegotiate the London salary of those who moved to a farm in Devon downwards.
It's quite unbelievable how many people left London and moved to the middle of nowhere in the weird devout belief that employers would keep paying them a London salary. It was all very baffling watching so many people seemingly brainwashed by interior design bloggers who had momentarily switched to waffling about the exodus.
Once someone has based themselves sufficient distance from the office that a daily commute is barely plausible then they are no longer a London worker but a remote worker and their salary no longer has to compete against London workers but remote workers in the global market such as Poland, Pakistan etc.
These people have been a pain for employers as they've cost the same to maintain when there has been absolutely no need to keep paying them anywhere close to what they were on. Calling everyone back to the office had the key benefit of forcing a dialog to be opened with these people regarding the change of their contract to reflect their choice to become a developing nations remote worker.
I think it depends on what you do. I still work out of central London 3 days per week, with 2 wfh, which has become our policy. We also have offices all over the country with hubs in the main cities which I visit. The salaries of London vs Manchester or Leeds for example are the same for software engineers (£700-£800/day) and even places like Birmingham are becoming more competitive. London has more tourists of course but the idea you have to work there to get ahead is about 20 years out of date. I work in Digital tech, we don’t use off shore as it doesn’t work for what we do, it never really has. It's quite unbelievable how many people left London and moved to the middle of nowhere in the weird devout belief that employers would keep paying them a London salary. It was all very baffling watching so many people seemingly brainwashed by interior design bloggers who had momentarily switched to waffling about the exodus.
Once someone has based themselves sufficient distance from the office that a daily commute is barely plausible then they are no longer a London worker but a remote worker and their salary no longer has to compete against London workers but remote workers in the global market such as Poland, Pakistan etc.
These people have been a pain for employers as they've cost the same to maintain when there has been absolutely no need to keep paying them anywhere close to what they were on. Calling everyone back to the office had the key benefit of forcing a dialog to be opened with these people regarding the change of their contract to reflect their choice to become a developing nations remote worker.
Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 8th March 09:02
havoc said:
That I agree wholeheartedly with. There's an entire swathe of back-office types* who are throroughly taking the piss**.
* Yes, I am one, but I still need to commute part-time.
* Makes a change from it being the employer, I suppose.
Middle and back office are an interesting area. There is a huge amount of skill and experience on n those areas but it also tends to be where the pro slackers can hide out most easily. * Yes, I am one, but I still need to commute part-time.
* Makes a change from it being the employer, I suppose.
It was all a bit bizarre watching that post Covid exodus but even so there are two really big happening in that space. The first of which being all those highly qualified EU workers who went home but have set up employment agencies that allow Coty firms to' seamlessly hire a good clerical worker in Prague or Warsaw for a fraction of what they have to pay the same person to be able to live close enough to London. The second really big change that is looming is the GenZ cultural homogeneity where geography and culture are irrelevant, genuinely orrelevant opposed to older people making wild claims of ot being irrelevant to them. GenZ has this huge cultural ability to converse seamlessly and wholly digitally with anyone, anywhere, anytime because they have only ever known that as a norm. And that means that they can work efficiently and easily in non geolocated departments. They don't need to all be put together in one physical location but can work even more efficiently and sociably using a digital location.
Weirdly, it opens the potential for the next location for gentrification driven by City wealth not even being near London. A digital working and real social hub could today be anywhere in the U.K. that fits the new criteria. Arguably, a proto version of what could come to be would be Brighton and the media industry has long had its social hubs outside of London but almost any town or city in the U.K. could accidentally become a hub for a he new digital City worker.
Earlier generations took over dumps like West Hampstead and Clapham because they were cheap and had excellent social and travel amenities but if the commute need has gone and a need to price compete against quality overseas worker competition then why try and gentrify a crap hole in Z4/5 when there are so many much better and much cheaper locations nowhere near London?
Maybe somewhere like Blackpool.
. It's a cheap s
t tip but which phenomenal potential for gentrification. City middle office workers could own it and make it a digital working hub. Weirder things have happened. Plus, us Londoners would be spared the never ending influx of Yorkshiremen as they can go and bang on about their white roses to people who actually care what colour their roses are. wormus said:
I think it depends on what you do. I still work out of central London 3 days per week, with 2 wfh, which has become our policy. We also have offices all over the country with hubs in the main cities which I visit. The salaries of London vs Manchester or Leeds for example are the same for software engineers (£700-£800/day) and even places like Birmingham are becoming more competitive. London has more tourists of course but the idea you have to work there to get ahead is about 20 years out of date. I work in Digital tech, we don’t use off shore as it doesn’t work for what we do, it never really has.
Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Arguably the tech industry is one of the most flexible, and yet you’re still in 3 days a week! Many of the big employers in that space are the same, Amazon/Salesforce etc are 3 days too I believe - 3 days makes living miles and miles away a non starter for most people. Either cost or just the amount of time spent commuting is unpalatable. Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Edited by wormus on Friday 8th March 09:02
Certainly it seems the city proper is mostly a full time in office situation again, law/finance/consulting/audit etc - I know people across all of these and it’s pretty much back in the office.
There will always be an in flow of young people wanting to be in London, there will always be the outflow of those that move out to have a family and those who are staying. Private schools all seeing high demand still in the areas I looked at so suspect wealthy families working in that group of industries above where they need to be in every day are still staying.
wormus said:
I think it depends on what you do. I still work out of central London 3 days per week, with 2 wfh, which has become our policy. We also have offices all over the country with hubs in the main cities which I visit. The salaries of London vs Manchester or Leeds for example are the same for software engineers (£700-£800/day) and even places like Birmingham are becoming more competitive. London has more tourists of course but the idea you have to work there to get ahead is about 20 years out of date. I work in Digital tech, we don’t use off shore as it doesn’t work for what we do, it never really has.
Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Yup. It's a practice that has been growing since the 90s but it is now expanding outside of just IT/digital as many clerical roles now have no great requirement to be physically located in the centre of a hugely expensive city. Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Edited by wormus on Friday 8th March 09:02
DonkeyApple said:
But there is almost no logic to wanting values to increase and plenty of logic in wanting values to stagnate and generally fall in real terms over a suitable period of time.
Stagnation keeps out the speculators while allowing non speculators to plan how, when and where they buy in. It allows the market to return to being about people having a home not a leveraged punt on a market.
I feel like this should be a strategic Govt target. Somehow. Govt only have blunt tools of course but if we can just let wages catch up for a minute, like you say, then it becomes a normal market again.Stagnation keeps out the speculators while allowing non speculators to plan how, when and where they buy in. It allows the market to return to being about people having a home not a leveraged punt on a market.
On the other discussion point around WFH and where you live. Here in NI, prices are increasing a bit too fast for my liking and I've an 18 and 13 year old at home who will be wanting their own house in the future. Dublin house prices have got out of hand and plenty of global tech in Dublin which is only a 1 hr drive from the NI border so that 1 or 2 trips to the office is no big deal now. London is obviously crazy prices and where I live (2 miles from the airport) there are plenty of Londoners buying houses and commuting to the office. So we're getting hit from GB and ROI in terms of people wanting to come and buy our houses.
The estate agents are highlighting proximity to the airport as key features in property listings now, clearly targetting aeroplane commutes. The flights are really cheap if you have to pay yourself, but even better if its on company expenses. I commute too, although only a couple of times a quarter. If I've a 7am flight, I leave the house at 6.15am and I'm at the departure gate at 6.30am. If the flight leaves on schedule, I'm in London City for just after 8am. Still a long old day, but if its only sporadic travelling, you can put up with it.
DonkeyApple said:
Yup. It's a practice that has been growing since the 90s but it is now expanding outside of just IT/digital as many clerical roles now have no great requirement to be physically located in the centre of a hugely expensive city.
Yep, remember dealing with a "white shoe" US law firm 15 years ago. Their secretarial/ drafting support team were all in the Mid West somewhere, not NYC or Washington."name" consultancies do most of the power point deck building work in India or Philippines, and increasingly a lot of the analysis.
I am a lawyer in central government. I work next to Whitehall.
Recently the civil service mandated that unless there were exceptional circumstances staff were to spend 60pc of their time in the office.
The problem this presented is that post covid, most people were doing 20 to 40pc in the office, without being challenged by management. Indeed I know of examples where staff relocated to Scotland for significantly cheaper property with their employers blessing. There was however no contractual variation for them having done so, so technically their office is still London and technically they should be coming In 3 times a week.
Just as an asides the individual I know who has moved to Scotland and should be coming in 3 times a week has been told by their manager to come in once a month. That's it. Although it's still going to cost the employee 400 quid a month or so to do so, there is a palpable unfairness to someone who lives in the home counties and their manager says, sorry pal you've got to come in 3 times a week.
I've been asked to come in 3 times and week and have declined to do so. I go in once a week as a matter of course or if business needs demand I go in as and when required. I don't manage anyone and don't want promotion. My line management chain wasn't all that chuffed about it but they know and I know that as long as they aren't enforcing the policy fairly and consistently they're on an absolute hiding to nothing trying to get me to go in 3 times a week when a colleague is living in a castle in Scotland.
Recently the civil service mandated that unless there were exceptional circumstances staff were to spend 60pc of their time in the office.
The problem this presented is that post covid, most people were doing 20 to 40pc in the office, without being challenged by management. Indeed I know of examples where staff relocated to Scotland for significantly cheaper property with their employers blessing. There was however no contractual variation for them having done so, so technically their office is still London and technically they should be coming In 3 times a week.
Just as an asides the individual I know who has moved to Scotland and should be coming in 3 times a week has been told by their manager to come in once a month. That's it. Although it's still going to cost the employee 400 quid a month or so to do so, there is a palpable unfairness to someone who lives in the home counties and their manager says, sorry pal you've got to come in 3 times a week.
I've been asked to come in 3 times and week and have declined to do so. I go in once a week as a matter of course or if business needs demand I go in as and when required. I don't manage anyone and don't want promotion. My line management chain wasn't all that chuffed about it but they know and I know that as long as they aren't enforcing the policy fairly and consistently they're on an absolute hiding to nothing trying to get me to go in 3 times a week when a colleague is living in a castle in Scotland.
Public sector, though - different planet. The people I know who are having to go back into the office hate it, because it’s a lot easier to do nothing sitting around in your pants at home, and without doing £40 a day on train fares.
Can’t see WfH having a huge effect on London prices, but more remote stuff has to be far more attractive nowadays with the likes of Starlink etc.
Can’t see WfH having a huge effect on London prices, but more remote stuff has to be far more attractive nowadays with the likes of Starlink etc.
soupdragon1 said:
On the other discussion point around WFH and where you live. Here in NI, prices are increasing a bit too fast for my liking and I've an 18 and 13 year old at home who will be wanting their own house in the future. Dublin house prices have got out of hand and plenty of global tech in Dublin which is only a 1 hr drive from the NI border so that 1 or 2 trips to the office is no big deal now. London is obviously crazy prices and where I live (2 miles from the airport) there are plenty of Londoners buying houses and commuting to the office. So we're getting hit from GB and ROI in terms of people wanting to come and buy our houses.
princeperch said:
I am a lawyer in central government. I work next to Whitehall.
...
as long as they aren't enforcing the policy fairly and consistently they're on an absolute hiding to nothing trying to get me to go in 3 times a week when a colleague is living in a castle in Scotland.
These two highlight a potential issue in trying to cool the housing market down - unless / until BOTH government and big corporates can grasp this particular nettle and either reduce pay for 'remote'* workers or force said workers to be a commutable distance from the office, you're going to see this outflow of high-income (and potentially asset-rich, if they own London property) individuals from London to 'nicer' parts of the country, inflating prices further....
as long as they aren't enforcing the policy fairly and consistently they're on an absolute hiding to nothing trying to get me to go in 3 times a week when a colleague is living in a castle in Scotland.
* wholly or nearly-so.
Hah - in my (tech) firm, as of last week desks now have QR codes to scan. Supposedly to check in/ check out of your hot desk, but as it came immediately after a blast from the CEO how we were missing out on the serendipity of inter office interactions...
Luckily/ unluckily for me, I spend decent amount of time at clients, and its been agreed that that counts as 'in office'. But our main campus in France is a ghost town by all accounts.
Luckily/ unluckily for me, I spend decent amount of time at clients, and its been agreed that that counts as 'in office'. But our main campus in France is a ghost town by all accounts.
havoc said:
These two highlight a potential issue in trying to cool the housing market down - unless / until BOTH government and big corporates can grasp this particular nettle and either reduce pay for 'remote'* workers or force said workers to be a commutable distance from the office, you're going to see this outflow of high-income (and potentially asset-rich, if they own London property) individuals from London to 'nicer' parts of the country, inflating prices further.
* wholly or nearly-so.
It's levelling up though. The migrating of people out of the SE, back to the regions but taking higher paid jobs with them. * wholly or nearly-so.
People seem to be very keen to be levelled up and have house prices akin to London and plumbers and electricians that charge £500 a day. Personally, I don't see the huge benefit in paying even more for stuff but each to their own.
DonkeyApple said:
wormus said:
I think it depends on what you do. I still work out of central London 3 days per week, with 2 wfh, which has become our policy. We also have offices all over the country with hubs in the main cities which I visit. The salaries of London vs Manchester or Leeds for example are the same for software engineers (£700-£800/day) and even places like Birmingham are becoming more competitive. London has more tourists of course but the idea you have to work there to get ahead is about 20 years out of date. I work in Digital tech, we don’t use off shore as it doesn’t work for what we do, it never really has.
Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Yup. It's a practice that has been growing since the 90s but it is now expanding outside of just IT/digital as many clerical roles now have no great requirement to be physically located in the centre of a hugely expensive city. Seems some people just like saying they live in London but lots of people don’t and don’t want to.
Edited by wormus on Friday 8th March 09:02
t.It's perfectly possible to build a very successful career no where near the place, and to therefore live somewhere altogether more pleasant, and where you can still go out and be on proper driving roads very quickly.
supersport said:
Personally I don't understand the desire to work in That London. I used to commute in some 30 years ago, it was st.
It's perfectly possible to build a very successful career no where near the place, and to therefore live somewhere altogether more pleasant, and where you can still go out and be on proper driving roads very quickly.
Absolutely. No need to be somewhere we don't want to be. It's the great luxury of being spaffed out where we have been. What I've never understood is the people who migrate to London, realise it's not for them and then don't leave. As you say, smart and hard working people can create opportunity anywhere. t.It's perfectly possible to build a very successful career no where near the place, and to therefore live somewhere altogether more pleasant, and where you can still go out and be on proper driving roads very quickly.
Arguably, when younger, all the attractive girls move to London from the regions, rendering them not much more than sausage and pig fests.
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