S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?

[Mr Whippy]

Peterpetrole said:

If he was that good he'd be on a yacht with Halle Berry rather than posting yt vids from his mums basement.

Anyone with the perfect system can’t game it to become super rich.

Unless they can compensate for their alteration of future outcomes by their intervention, but that’s just a bit too far fetched

[Armitage.Shanks]

macron said:

Interesting time for the Chancellor to be suggesting people shouldn't have cash ISA's, and pump dough into stocks....

Interesting. A pal has just decided to pull 50% out of his S&S ISA and put it into a Cash ISA 3yr fix at 4.3%. If the 'ideal' draw down is 4% he'd rather bank on a sure thing than uncertainty. Although in his case pension draw down is a misnomer given he has a FS index linked pension.

[asfault]

Armitage.Shanks said:

macron said:

Interesting time for the Chancellor to be suggesting people shouldn't have cash ISA's, and pump dough into stocks....

Interesting. A pal has just decided to pull 50% out of his S&S ISA and put it into a Cash ISA 3yr fix at 4.3%. If the 'ideal' draw down is 4% he'd rather bank on a sure thing than uncertainty. Although in his case pension draw down is a misnomer given he has a FS index linked pension.

I mean what if yesterday was the low point of a correction? He'll have literally picked the bottom to pull out.

[mikeiow]

asfault said:

Armitage.Shanks said:

macron said:

Interesting time for the Chancellor to be suggesting people shouldn't have cash ISA's, and pump dough into stocks....

Interesting. A pal has just decided to pull 50% out of his S&S ISA and put it into a Cash ISA 3yr fix at 4.3%. If the 'ideal' draw down is 4% he'd rather bank on a sure thing than uncertainty. Although in his case pension draw down is a misnomer given he has a FS index linked pension.

I mean what if yesterday was the low point of a correction? He'll have literally picked the bottom to pull out.

Yup….timing the market is a fools errand, especially panicking and pulling out when markets scare you.
What is the Buffet saying: “be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful”.

I am at the stage where I am drawing on the declining pot - the decummulation phase.
The hardest time to know what to do, in some ways.

I could pause the draw & live off our cash reserves, but that is not immediate: I might visit that in a couple of months.
In the meantime, I will start to trickle money from our cash savings back into my S&S ISA, starting today.
Sure, it might carry on down, but then I will buy some more of that “lower priced” stock from time to time: reinvest at low points.

If it really does like Trump wants a recession, ie things still look down in 2-3 months, that’s the time I might pause the drawdown. Given his propensity for flailing about, I suspect things will pick up, but that is just my guess.

[Car bon]

mikeiow said:

I could pause the draw & live off our cash reserves, but that is not immediate: I might visit that in a couple of months.
In the meantime, I will start to trickle money from our cash savings back into my S&S ISA, starting today.
Sure, it might carry on down, but then I will buy some more of that “lower priced” stock from time to time: reinvest at low points.

Was that part of your retirement plan - or are you reacting ?

I've kind of had the same thoughts, but my plan was to keep 2-3 years in cash type assets. I'm trying to resist temptation and stick with the plan...... It kind of feels that it's just as bad/risky as selling equities now as the market may continue to fall.....

[Sheepshanks]

mikeiow said:

I am at the stage where I am drawing on the declining pot - the decummulation phase.
The hardest time to know what to do, in some ways.

I could pause the draw & live off our cash reserves, but that is not immediate: I might visit that in a couple of months.
In the meantime, I will start to trickle money from our cash savings back into my S&S ISA, starting today.
Sure, it might carry on down, but then I will buy some more of that “lower priced” stock from time to time: reinvest at low points.

Not taking much out of ours and until the last few weeks it had still been going up.

We both worked for first 3 months of this tax year and IFA is suggested we put that money into our SIPPs to get the tax adder (only basic rate). I’m not convinced it’s worth it as most of the money will be taxable on the way out so the tax saving is marginal and the smallest drop will wipe that saving out.

[Car bon]

Sheepshanks said:

We both worked for first 3 months of this tax year and IFA is suggested we put that money into our SIPPs to get the tax adder (only basic rate). I’m not convinced it’s worth it as most of the money will be taxable on the way out so the tax saving is marginal and the smallest drop will wipe that saving out.

It depends on what options you have inside your SIPP and when you plan to withdraw it again.

For example, you might be able to hold it in cash in your SIPP, then withdraw it again in April with 25% of it being tax free...... it all depends on your wider circumstances though.

[Sheepshanks]

Car bon said:

It depends on what options you have inside your SIPP and when you plan to withdraw it again.

For example, you might be able to hold it in cash in your SIPP, then withdraw it again in April with 25% of it being tax free...... it all depends on your wider circumstances though.

Thanks - I had thought about that but don't know how it would mess things up as we're only taking tax-free cash from our SIPPs.

For IHT reasons we were leaving taking taxed money from the pensions until last, but likely that's going to change. We have other pension income which is taxed.

[macron]

asfault said:

I mean what if yesterday was the low point of a correction? He'll have literally picked the bottom to pull out.

Or it might be a dead cat bounce.

[alscar]

Car bon said:

mikeiow said:

I could pause the draw & live off our cash reserves, but that is not immediate: I might visit that in a couple of months.
In the meantime, I will start to trickle money from our cash savings back into my S&S ISA, starting today.
Sure, it might carry on down, but then I will buy some more of that “lower priced” stock from time to time: reinvest at low points.

Was that part of your retirement plan - or are you reacting ?

I've kind of had the same thoughts, but my plan was to keep 2-3 years in cash type assets. I'm trying to resist temptation and stick with the plan...... It kind of feels that it's just as bad/risky as selling equities now as the market may continue to fall.....

I think anyone who has been following events over the past few weeks must have been tempted to do something but the issue then becomes just what ?
Moving money out from US equities to where , UK (?) where things are hardly looking positive.
When Poundland announces they have issues that’s not good.
Timing the market has never appeared as good advice especially not for Funds as opposed to single stocks.
Until and if Equities / Funds are sold there is no loss per se other than on a spreadsheet.
As long as a presumably diverse investment pot ( including cash ) with diverse geographics made sense a few months ago doesn't it still ?
Doing nothing is difficult but sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
All imho obviously !

[Peterpetrole]

alscar said:

I think anyone who has been following events over the past few weeks must have been tempted to do something but the issue then becomes just what ?
Moving money out from US equities to where , UK (?) where things are hardly looking positive.
When Poundland announces they have issues that’s not good.
Timing the market has never appeared as good advice especially not for Funds as opposed to single stocks.
Until and if Equities / Funds are sold there is no loss per se other than on a spreadsheet.
As long as a presumably diverse investment pot ( including cash ) with diverse geographics made sense a few months ago doesn't it still ?
Doing nothing is difficult but sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
All imho obviously !

Definitely my feelings, yep. A lot of headwinds everywhere but the (global) market has factored that in already. Different if you are trying to draw down for retirement.

I also don't see much point worrying about individual stocks, I recall a different poundshop went bust a few years ago, mismanaged? Time, moves on, other shops do better sourcing, new thinking, e.g. B+M etc. , if the conclusion is that poor people are getting ever poorer, yes we know.

But, brutally, the effect on S+P stocks of poor people is v limited imho.

[Scootersp]

alscar said:

As long as a presumably diverse investment pot ( including cash ) with diverse geographics made sense a few months ago doesn't it still ?
Doing nothing is difficult but sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
All imho obviously !

This does raise the question of why does it go down in the first place though?

If there is a healthy monthly money inflow into the market from people.pension funds etc and individuals are only now, after a drop, contemplating their own actions about whether they should sell, doesn't that have to mean that experienced big players got out of some things to cause the start of the decline, they didn't just hold?

[HarryW]

Scootersp said:

alscar said:

As long as a presumably diverse investment pot ( including cash ) with diverse geographics made sense a few months ago doesn't it still ?
Doing nothing is difficult but sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
All imho obviously !

This does raise the question of why does it go down in the first place though?

If there is a healthy monthly money inflow into the market from people.pension funds etc and individuals are only now, after a drop, contemplating their own actions about whether they should sell, doesn't that have to mean that experienced big players got out of some things to cause the start of the decline, they didn't just hold?

One word; Blackrock.

They have an inside line to Donnie, don’t be surprised if they are not making record profits on the back of it.

[fat80b]

alscar said:

I think anyone who has been following events over the past few weeks must have been tempted to do something but the issue then becomes just what ?
Moving money out from US equities to where , UK (?) where things are hardly looking positive.
When Poundland announces they have issues that’s not good.
Timing the market has never appeared as good advice especially not for Funds as opposed to single stocks.
Until and if Equities / Funds are sold there is no loss per se other than on a spreadsheet.
As long as a presumably diverse investment pot ( including cash ) with diverse geographics made sense a few months ago doesn't it still ?
Doing nothing is difficult but sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
All imho obviously !

Same here - I'm firmly in the do nothing camp - which in practical terms means continuing to drip a small amount in monthly to both a pension and an ISA (with both global and S&P holdings in both), all the while trying to remember that there are no losses until you have to sell (which I don't).

The difficulty / psychology aspect is interesting though - even though there is no "loss" as such and that doing nothing is the right long-term thing to do, it can still feel like the wrong choice.
Being aware that the brain is programmed to do this to you is key - i.e. I try to remind myself not to get suckered into making an emotional decision.

[alscar]

Scootersp said:

alscar said:

As long as a presumably diverse investment pot ( including cash ) with diverse geographics made sense a few months ago doesn't it still ?
Doing nothing is difficult but sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
All imho obviously !

This does raise the question of why does it go down in the first place though?

If there is a healthy monthly money inflow into the market from people.pension funds etc and individuals are only now, after a drop, contemplating their own actions about whether they should sell, doesn't that have to mean that experienced big players got out of some things to cause the start of the decline, they didn't just hold?

Yes am quite sure some did just as they always do but doesn’t mean they all did.
But I’m just a stupid individual masquerading as a “ sophisticated “ investor according to the various KYC forms I get asked to sign!

[alscar]

fat80b said:

alscar said:

I think anyone who has been following events over the past few weeks must have been tempted to do something but the issue then becomes just what ?
Moving money out from US equities to where , UK (?) where things are hardly looking positive.
When Poundland announces they have issues that’s not good.
Timing the market has never appeared as good advice especially not for Funds as opposed to single stocks.
Until and if Equities / Funds are sold there is no loss per se other than on a spreadsheet.
As long as a presumably diverse investment pot ( including cash ) with diverse geographics made sense a few months ago doesn't it still ?
Doing nothing is difficult but sometimes it’s the right thing to do.
All imho obviously !

Same here - I'm firmly in the do nothing camp - which in practical terms means continuing to drip a small amount in monthly to both a pension and an ISA (with both global and S&P holdings in both), all the while trying to remember that there are no losses until you have to sell (which I don't).

The difficulty / psychology aspect is interesting though - even though there is no "loss" as such and that doing nothing is the right long-term thing to do, it can still feel like the wrong choice.
Being aware that the brain is programmed to do this to you is key - i.e. I try to remind myself not to get suckered into making an emotional decision.

Isn’t it just.
We all know SM is a “ long term “ thing and that’s sub consciously and consciously drummed into “ us “ as is the return percentage improvement over cash.
When my Dad died my Mother asked me to handle all of her Financial affairs and I quite often said to her that doing nothing didn’t necessarily mean the wrong option.
In fairness I also moved her entire holdings into cash / bonds at the age of 79 as she was literally phoning me every day to see what her returns were like and her stress levels were getting silly.

[asfault]

macron said:

asfault said:

I mean what if yesterday was the low point of a correction? He'll have literally picked the bottom to pull out.

Or it might be a dead cat bounce.

Yep could be.

Apparently you cant say that now it's dead rock bounce...

[StoutBench]

As a relatively new investor since the COVID dip I'm amazed at how many people there are on this thread wobbling. Although a lot seems to be people not actually invested or only in a bit. I'm planning to hold for 25 more years so for me this is just part of the process.

[TownIdiot]

StoutBench said:

As a relatively new investor since the COVID dip I'm amazed at how many people there are on this thread wobbling. Although a lot seems to be people not actually invested or only in a bit. I'm planning to hold for 25 more years so for me this is just part of the process.

Maybe some haven't got 25 years of investing left

I'm not "in" and I won't be going back until it's clear wtf is going on.

Things may well return to the norm but I haven't read one thing that leads me to believe what's occurring is in anyway normal and that the outcome will be the same as before

Having said that I also wouldn't be surprised if we see another strong run.

I just don't like the fact no one understands the motives.

[mikeiow]

Car bon said:

mikeiow said:

I could pause the draw & live off our cash reserves, but that is not immediate: I might visit that in a couple of months.
In the meantime, I will start to trickle money from our cash savings back into my S&S ISA, starting today.
Sure, it might carry on down, but then I will buy some more of that “lower priced” stock from time to time: reinvest at low points.

Was that part of your retirement plan - or are you reacting ?

I've kind of had the same thoughts, but my plan was to keep 2-3 years in cash type assets. I'm trying to resist temptation and stick with the plan...... It kind of feels that it's just as bad/risky as selling equities now as the market may continue to fall.....

I had read a lot before retiring, & was perhaps overly aware of the SORR (sequence of returns risk), stopping as I did at 57….so yes, we had planned to pause things if my pot shrunk too much…& funnily enough, only a few months in, my BG American fund crumbled. It had done very well prior, so I wasn’t overly concerned, but we did chat and pause the draw for a year or so.

My thinking now is that I don’t need to pause the draw, just re-invest some cash savings into the market as we see fit. So yes, I guess I am evolving our plan, & by putting cash assets into S&S ISA, it is effectively equivalent to pausing the draw.

Edited by mikeiow on Thursday 13th March 15:17