S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?

[simon800]

LeoSayer said:

Boosh-36 said:

I puled out all of my cash today. Still made a good profit but do not want to erode it.
I will buy back in once I think it's reached is low.

It's already up over 1% today.

[clubsport]

ferrisbueller said:

clubsport said:

Aiminghigh123 said:

Near term analysts are saying a drop to 5300.
It’s had quite a fast drop over the last 22 days.
Not been that long.
A great investor once said
“Buy when others are fearful”
I heard he has done alright on the markets………

On the way down you tend to look at previous support/resistance levels for guidance, because that is what others will also be doing, you learn as you trade. Its very unusual to see a round number such as 5300.

Looking at the charts we have a 5324 support level going back to last August, if it were to close below that, as in 5300, technically the next level of support is 5119, where I would expect quite a lot of buying!

Good luck!

A smidge under 5200 last August is what I've been looking at.

On 04 Aug last year.... the trading was significant, the low print was 5119 with the close higher that day at 5344, which is the base of the rally to subsequent all time highs on 02/19/25..
Just under 5200 is a good enough target, although 5119 was that low print, the chances of buying exactly what you want at that level is remote. if you were to get filled easily there, it's for a reason and you will probably regret it!

Good luck!

[ferrisbueller]

clubsport said:

ferrisbueller said:

clubsport said:

Aiminghigh123 said:

Near term analysts are saying a drop to 5300.
It’s had quite a fast drop over the last 22 days.
Not been that long.
A great investor once said
“Buy when others are fearful”
I heard he has done alright on the markets………

On the way down you tend to look at previous support/resistance levels for guidance, because that is what others will also be doing, you learn as you trade. Its very unusual to see a round number such as 5300.

Looking at the charts we have a 5324 support level going back to last August, if it were to close below that, as in 5300, technically the next level of support is 5119, where I would expect quite a lot of buying!

Good luck!

A smidge under 5200 last August is what I've been looking at.

On 04 Aug last year.... the trading was significant, the low print was 5119 with the close higher that day at 5344, which is the base of the rally to subsequent all time highs on 02/19/25..
Just under 5200 is a good enough target, although 5119 was that low print, the chances of buying exactly what you want at that level is remote. if you were to get filled easily there, it's for a reason and you will probably regret it!

Good luck!

I'm too much of a coward to try to time the bottom (on anything) exactly. I've trickled a bit in just in case we've bottomed out, but am hoping for a return to those lower levels to commit a chunk. The obvious risk being that we may not get there again. Sadly the platforms I use don't allow a limit order to sit active for very long, so spending too much time staring at numbers.

It's such a messy situation overall.

ETA Up 2% today, but one Trump-ism and that could be flipped by close of play.

[Phooey]

This will be a very, very short-term rally. The trend atm with investors is "raise cash", and institutions / hedge funds etc are repositioning (they don't usually hold (much)cash). Rips will get sold into hence a run back up to ATH's now looks extremely unlikely. Valuations, growth expectations, tariffs, UNCERTAINTY, is all pointing to 'risk-off'. The landscape was looking cloudy without Trump, but the uncertainty he is bringing to US markets is yet to fully materialise. IMO.

[Narcisus]

Phooey said:

This will be a very, very short-term rally. The trend atm with investors is "raise cash", and institutions / hedge funds etc are repositioning (they don't usually hold (much)cash). Rips will get sold into hence a run back up to ATH's now looks extremely unlikely. Valuations, growth expectations, tariffs, UNCERTAINTY, is all pointing to 'risk-off'. The landscape was looking cloudy without Trump, but the uncertainty he is bringing to US markets is yet to fully materialise. IMO.

Hong Kong

[Ducati996R]

Phooey said:

This will be a very, very short-term rally. The trend atm with investors is "raise cash", and institutions / hedge funds etc are repositioning (they don't usually hold (much)cash). Rips will get sold into hence a run back up to ATH's now looks extremely unlikely. Valuations, growth expectations, tariffs, UNCERTAINTY, is all pointing to 'risk-off'. The landscape was looking cloudy without Trump, but the uncertainty he is bringing to US markets is yet to fully materialise. IMO.

No one really has a clue on all of this but does anyone think that Trump wants to be a President that presides over a declining stock market ….

[asfault]

Ducati996R said:

Phooey said:

This will be a very, very short-term rally. The trend atm with investors is "raise cash", and institutions / hedge funds etc are repositioning (they don't usually hold (much)cash). Rips will get sold into hence a run back up to ATH's now looks extremely unlikely. Valuations, growth expectations, tariffs, UNCERTAINTY, is all pointing to 'risk-off'. The landscape was looking cloudy without Trump, but the uncertainty he is bringing to US markets is yet to fully materialise. IMO.

No one really has a clue on all of this but does anyone think that Trump wants to be a President that presides over a declining stock market ….

In 4 years time if it's higher he can claim he made the difference.

[OoopsVoss]

Phooey said:

This will be a very, very short-term rally. The trend atm with investors is "raise cash", and institutions / hedge funds etc are repositioning (they don't usually hold (much)cash). Rips will get sold into hence a run back up to ATH's now looks extremely unlikely. Valuations, growth expectations, tariffs, UNCERTAINTY, is all pointing to 'risk-off'. The landscape was looking cloudy without Trump, but the uncertainty he is bringing to US markets is yet to fully materialise. IMO.

US consumer confidence numbers looking shocking and the expectations for SPX growth from the US public are lowest its been for a long time. The biggest issue is investors don't like uncertainty and Trump brings it in spades. Its simply not going to look a safe bet for invest. Comments from Marc Lasry today point to the institutional fear of dealing with an unpredictable White House. You have big credit risk issues building up there.

[Mr Whippy]

Trump caused a crash in 2018 as he put pressure on JP to raise rates and ‘normalise’ but then they were cut again and the markets rallied back.

Back then they could because inflation was not an issue.

[clubsport]

On the subject of inflation, I am sure you all noticed the inflation expectations component of todays US data release of Univ Michigan consumer sentiment was the highest for the last 30 years!

The market doesn't care today as after the sell off this week much of todays buying is short covering as no one wants to go home exposed in case anything crazy happens over the w/e when markets are closed.

[Phooey]

OoopsVoss said:

US consumer confidence numbers looking shocking and the expectations for SPX growth from the US public are lowest its been for a long time. The biggest issue is investors don't like uncertainty and Trump brings it in spades. Its simply not going to look a safe bet for invest. Comments from Marc Lasry today point to the institutional fear of dealing with an unpredictable White House. You have big credit risk issues building up there.

The consumer is 70% of the economy. Aside from the uncertainty (which markets hate), the growth expectations of the S&P 500 is starting to weigh heavy on reality. Expectations among retail investors is (or was) too high. Hedge funds have been de-risking for a while. Reversion to the mean incoming, maybe.

[ooid]

clubsport said:

The market doesn't care today as after the sell off this week much of todays buying is short covering as no one wants to go home exposed in case anything crazy happens over the w/e when markets are closed.

Are you looking at Tail Risk ETFs recently?

[mikeiow]

Boosh-36 said:

I puled out all of my cash today. Still made a good profit but do not want to erode it.
I will buy back in once I think it's reached is low.

Be sure to let us know when you think it’s reached it’s low!

[Phooey]

mikeiow said:

Boosh-36 said:

I puled out all of my cash today. Still made a good profit but do not want to erode it.
I will buy back in once I think it's reached is low.

Be sure to let us know when you think it’s reached it’s low!

That's very difficult to pull off. Markets can stay expensive for years, and just being expensive is not enough to trigger a sell-off. It will take something like a credit event for example to be the catalyst for a (bigger) crash. We just don't know whether Trumps policies will snowball into something bigger, or not. You need to identify yourself as either a trader (good luck!) or an investor, and if the latter, set your portfolio out to your level of comfort and don't fret it.

[Derek Chevalier]

ooid said:

clubsport said:

The market doesn't care today as after the sell off this week much of todays buying is short covering as no one wants to go home exposed in case anything crazy happens over the w/e when markets are closed.

Are you looking at Tail Risk ETFs recently?

Surely it is simpler to diversify, and if you are going to hedge, you do it when protection is cheap?

https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights...

[mikeiow]

Phooey said:

mikeiow said:

Boosh-36 said:

I puled out all of my cash today. Still made a good profit but do not want to erode it.
I will buy back in once I think it's reached is low.

Be sure to let us know when you think it’s reached it’s low!

That's very difficult to pull off. Markets can stay expensive for years, and just being expensive is not enough to trigger a sell-off. It will take something like a credit event for example to be the catalyst for a (bigger) crash. We just don't know whether Trumps policies will snowball into something bigger, or not. You need to identify yourself as either a trader (good luck!) or an investor, and if the latter, set your portfolio out to your level of comfort and don't fret it.

Maybe my mild sarcasm was missed - I agree it is pretty well impossible to time the markets, & pulling out after they have taken a bit of a nosedive is likely the wrong decision!

[ooid]

Derek Chevalier said:

Surely it is simpler to diversify, and if you are going to hedge, you do it when protection is cheap?

https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights...

It's true but a bit old document, I think Cliff's ideas about Tail Risk also evolved since than. It is a also a bit single dimension, so does not include the fact on levered positions (on shorts). It is quite complex, advanced not easy as you say but highly effective.

This is an interesting one, though it is fairly new:

https://funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos/

[Derek Chevalier]

ooid said:

Derek Chevalier said:

Surely it is simpler to diversify, and if you are going to hedge, you do it when protection is cheap?

https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights...

It's true but a bit old document, I think Cliff's ideas about Tail Risk also evolved since than. It is a also a bit single dimension, so does not include the fact on levered positions (on shorts). It is quite complex, advanced not easy as you say but highly effective.

This is an interesting one, though it is fairly new:

https://funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos/

I got this far

"Maintains a strategic allocation to protective puts on the S&P 500."

Why would you focus on just this particular part of the market, other than to cater for recency bias?

[NowWatchThisDrive]

Phooey said:

Hedge funds have been de-risking for a while. Reversion to the mean incoming, maybe.

The acute de-grossing over the last couple of weeks, particularly among equity pods at the multi-strat HFs, has been brutal. I'm thankfully out of the game now but still in touch enough to know of several folks who've been stopped out and sent packing this last week or so. Essentially the strategies have become way too crowded; everyone's had the same trades on at the same time and likely all using leverage provided by the same PBs (which is the scary bit when you really think about it). Then when the inevitable unwind comes, it's seriously ugly.

IMO it demonstrates a bit of a vulnerability in the supposedly unassailable multi-strat model - or at least suggests it's at/near capacity for now - but I'm sure they'll go on, hire a load of new PMs who'll all gross up in unison and at some point we'll get to see this movie again...

[RSTurboPaul]

I have seen posited online that Trump knows a recession is coming, potentially of epic proportions:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyJasQvlXQg



I have also seen discussion that he is looking to revalue the Fort Knox gold (if it exists ) to help fix the debt issues, and that it looks like large amounts of gold are being shipped to the US recently (either to put the gold back into Fort Knox or to add to it).

My tin foil hat wonders if he is expecting the market to play out, the everything bubble to pop, and then he will be able to shore-up / recover with gold and more sustainable market practices - ideally in advance of the BRICS gold-backed Unit currency announcements.