Labours first budget and likely outcomes

[Sway]

Countdown said:

Esquire said:

Quite right , it'll be nothing more than in tomorrows Daily Mail.

That said, i cant recall any previous incumbent government to be immediately so unpopular having not only stiffed rival voters but also their own!

If we're talking about pensioners and farners with assets over £1m I don't think they were ever core Labour supporters. they might have voted labour in June because the other lot were so atrocious but I doubt Labour genuinely expected them to stay.

AFAICS (and happy to be corrected) the budget hasn't stiffed the majority of people.

Oh, it has, they just haven't realised it yet.

The employers NI changes will stiff the majority, and the actions that'll create further inflation will ensure we all feel poorer (well, other than those who've extorted their way to massive pay rises).

[Esquire]

Countdown said:

If we're talking about pensioners and farners with assets over £1m I don't think they were ever core Labour supporters. they might have voted labour in June because the other lot were so atrocious but I doubt Labour genuinely expected them to stay.

AFAICS (and happy to be corrected) the budget hasn't stiffed the majority of people.

Lots of not well off pensioners ( those that didnt vote Farage of course) would have voted Labour.
They thought they'd be better off financially but now they have decided not to renew the winter fuel allowance so stiffed them.

You are right in that people with over 1mln would not have voted for a party withy a history of being Rodin Hood.

Inflation has risen, mortgage rates have stayed high for borrowers and consumer confidence is on the floor so business's are suffering and employers are now wearing the costs of increased employee NI so are passing the costs on and not hiring.

I'd say in the mainstream we are all worse off

[turbobloke]

BigMon said:

zorba_the_greek said:

Enut said:

Crudeoink said:

turbobloke said:

764,956 less than 30 minutes later.

It's just tipped over 900k. It's really building momentum now

1 million now.

it is absolutely flying. Not seen a petition get so many signature so quickly.

Wonder if tomorrows papers will pick up on this

It will not make one iota of difference. As someone said earlier, the next election has already been announced, for 2029.

That's entertainment

Now 1,284,748

[classicaholic]

Signed

[mikey_b]

turbobloke said:

That's entertainment

Now 1,284,748

It’s flying - 1.5m and counting up rapidly!!

[Whataguy]

Countdown said:

Esquire said:

AFAICS (and happy to be corrected) the budget hasn't stiffed the majority of people.

It’s stuffed the self-employed and landlords.

Before the election they promised to abolish ‘making tax digital’ which forces the self-employed and landlords to complete 5 tax returns a year during the year instead of one after the year.

They are going to ignore the data that’s submitted, but fine people if they don’t send it.

Not only are they going ahead with it, they are extending the scope to bring more people into the scheme.

It’s a complete waste of time and money, plus unrealistic to think that people who complete a tax return maybe 6 months after the end of the year are now suddenly going to complete returns during the year every quarter.

[Graveworm]

Steve H said:

Pointless exercise but it is now past 250,000 votes so will get some publicity if nothing else.


The premise of the petition is weak though isn’t it?

"I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election."


Are there any they have actually gone back on? Or has it all been the usual political bullst of "we have no plans to put other taxes up", "oh look, it’s worse than we thought", "when we said no increase in NI we meant to the workers, not the nasty employers" etc, etc

On the day of the manifesto despite trying to duck this was expressly put to Keir Starmer by Channel 4 "No plans covers a lot - what if you lift the bonnet and find its worse than you thought? he said there were no tax rises outside the manifesto and there were alternatives to tax rises and cuts to services...

Edited by Graveworm on Monday 25th November 14:45

[Steve H]

Graveworm said:

Steve H said:

Pointless exercise but it is now past 250,000 votes so will get some publicity if nothing else.


The premise of the petition is weak though isn’t it?

"I believe the current Labour Government have gone back on the promises they laid out in the lead up to the last election."


Are there any they have actually gone back on? Or has it all been the usual political bullst of "we have no plans to put other taxes up", "oh look, it’s worse than we thought", "when we said no increase in NI we meant to the workers, not the nasty employers" etc, etc

On the day of the manifesto despite trying to duck this was expressly put to Keir Starmer by Channel 4 "No plans covers a lot what if you lift the bonnet and find its worse than you thought? he said there were no tax rises outside the manifesto and there were alternatives to tax rises and cuts to services...

And has he not been asked to explain the change on camera since then?


They always try to talk their way out of this stuff but I am surprised that when it was worded so vaguely in the manifesto he would then clarify on record that he meant absolutely no tax increases, especially given that the rest of the country knew perfectly well that they were coming.

[NuckyThompson]

I wonder what is the most a single person has been hit by a government budget by before?

For example a person that runs a care home or labour intensive business, whose parents are farmers, who has a kid in private school?

Hit by Employers NI, potential inheritance tax and vat on private schools. Can’t be many out there hit this hard but I’d assume it’s the type of move that makes them never vote labour again.

[Steve H]

NuckyThompson said:

I wonder what is the most a single person has been hit by a government budget by before?

For example a person that runs a care home or labour intensive business, whose parents are farmers, who has a kid in private school?

Hit by Employers NI, potential inheritance tax and vat on private schools. Can’t be many out there hit this hard but I’d assume it’s the type of move that makes them never vote labour again.

Anyone hit by all three of those weren’t exactly Labour’s target audience in the first place. Of course there will be exceptions but the typical Labour voter is an employee and/or welfare and kids in state school. IHT will be creeping up on more and more lefty voters over time but they mostly won’t be any worse off for it in this budget.

[trickywoo]

NuckyThompson said:

I wonder what is the most a single person has been hit by a government budget by before?

For example a person that runs a care home or labour intensive business, whose parents are farmers, who has a kid in private school?

Hit by Employers NI, potential inheritance tax and vat on private schools. Can’t be many out there hit this hard but I’d assume it’s the type of move that makes them never vote labour again.

I agree but the conservatives were no stranger to hitting people hard. They hit small business owners very hard. There was one year my tax would have gone up by around £4K if I took the same income as the year before and that was below the 40% rate so I’m not a fat cat deserving it.

[Bobtherallyfan]

trickywoo said:

I agree but the conservatives were no stranger to hitting people hard. They hit small business owners very hard. There was one year my tax would have gone up by around £4K if I took the same income as the year before and that was below the 40% rate so I’m not a fat cat deserving it.

Agree…people seem to have very short memories of the total mess Johnson and his cohorts got this Country into. Bit like Clarkson apparently forgetting why he bought his farm.

[sugerbear]

Esquire said:

Countdown said:

If we're talking about pensioners and farners with assets over £1m I don't think they were ever core Labour supporters. they might have voted labour in June because the other lot were so atrocious but I doubt Labour genuinely expected them to stay.

AFAICS (and happy to be corrected) the budget hasn't stiffed the majority of people.

Lots of not well off pensioners ( those that didnt vote Farage of course) would have voted Labour.
They thought they'd be better off financially but now they have decided not to renew the winter fuel allowance so stiffed them.

You are right in that people with over 1mln would not have voted for a party withy a history of being Rodin Hood.

Inflation has risen, mortgage rates have stayed high for borrowers and consumer confidence is on the floor so business's are suffering and employers are now wearing the costs of increased employee NI so are passing the costs on and not hiring.

I'd say in the mainstream we are all worse off

Four years of pension rises through the triple lock will see them forgot the £300 bonus.

Anyone that doesn't get a massive pay increase will blame their employer

Interest rates are dropping and inflation is less than 3%.

it will have made very little difference to the majority of people.

[turbobloke]

sugerbear said:

Esquire said:

Countdown said:

If we're talking about pensioners and farners with assets over £1m I don't think they were ever core Labour supporters. they might have voted labour in June because the other lot were so atrocious but I doubt Labour genuinely expected them to stay.

AFAICS (and happy to be corrected) the budget hasn't stiffed the majority of people.

Lots of not well off pensioners ( those that didnt vote Farage of course) would have voted Labour.
They thought they'd be better off financially but now they have decided not to renew the winter fuel allowance so stiffed them.

You are right in that people with over 1mln would not have voted for a party withy a history of being Rodin Hood.

Inflation has risen, mortgage rates have stayed high for borrowers and consumer confidence is on the floor so business's are suffering and employers are now wearing the costs of increased employee NI so are passing the costs on and not hiring.

I'd say in the mainstream we are all worse off

Four years of pension rises through the triple lock will see them forgot the £300 bonus.

Anyone that doesn't get a massive pay increase will blame their employer

Interest rates are dropping and inflation is less than 3%.

it will have made very little difference to the majority of people.

Not quite, use of that tense 'will have made' signs off on impact as of now only. That's not how it works.

The chancellor has told the BBC that businesses will have to absorb the costs of paying more National Insurance or give out smaller pay rises. The OBR talks about lower wage rises and higher prices as a result, in different proportions over time. The CBI talks about not hiring as many people due to NICs and min wage changes.

The majority of working people - and others e.g. pensioners at one end of the age scale and young people looking for their first job at the other end - will be significantly and adversely affected as the impact rolls out. Very little difference applies only in cloud cuckoo land.

[davek_964]

Just received an email from the rental agency I use - their charges are increasing, and they have attributed that directly to the increase in NI......

[philv]

davek_964 said:

Just received an email from the rental agency I use - their charges are increasing, and they have attributed that directly to the increase in NI......

Sorry to hear that.
Unfortunately it's going to get worse as labour has barely begun on punitive taxes for landlords.

But no worries, Rachel from complaints has announcedv the budget is good for jobs.

[davek_964]

I think they're using it as an excuse anyway, given that the NI increase starts in April and their fees increase at the start of January......

They have been a poor agency anyway and the tenants will be told to move out shortly (not related to this), so they will lose my business

[pingu393]

turbobloke said:

Not quite, use of that tense 'will have made' signs off on impact as of now only. That's not how it works.

The chancellor has told the BBC that businesses will have to absorb the costs of paying more National Insurance or give out smaller pay rises. The OBR talks about lower wage rises and higher prices as a result, in different proportions over time. The CBI talks about not hiring as many people due to NICs and min wage changes.

The majority of working people - and others e.g. pensioners at one end of the age scale and young people looking for their first job at the other end - will be significantly and adversely affected as the impact rolls out. Very little difference applies only in cloud cuckoo land.

We won't tax the working people, but we will make it next to impossible for them to get a pay rise - unless they are on minimum wage.

This means there will be wage compression between the lowest and highest paid workers in hospitality, health care and other sectors where the minimum wage is common.

Who will want to take on the extra responsibilities for not a lot more money?

The same goes for this brilliant idea of paying the under-21s the same as the over-21s with no probationary periods.

Who will risk employing an 18 year old with no references compared to a 23 year old with references?

Rachel should have stayed working in accounts.

[Ed.Neumann]

18 year olds are always the worst anyway, usually just a stop gap for them, they get trained up and then move on.
Plus they are the ones that give the most grief in regards to turning up as they are simply at the age where they are going out a bit more, and why not? Life's short.

But there is a reason they are paid less.

We have now said no point. Just hire people who can walk into a position as they have been doing the job for years already.

[ooid]

Today, officially the press picked up the data. The property companies (housebuilders, REITS and etc...) lost massive value since the budget. The biggest lost since actually Liz Truss show.

https://www.ft.com/content/13b83ee0-7967-4323-8aa7...

Some Karl Marx lovers out there, might claim they are not 'working people' but these are essentially one of the most effective companies that create jobs in UK and have positive impact on economy. Not to mention, most of UK's population pensions (at some level) Invested in these, so any value drop in them, immediate effect on everyone.

Well done.