Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

[LongQ]

Scientist discover that old trees are dying and assume it's due to climate change even though the trees have lived for hundreds of years in harsh climates.

More research needed of course.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-444...

Odd, perhaps, that these trees have only started to die (apparently) after the scientists started to visit them for research purposes.

Pure coincidence I would imagine. Strange though.

[Zetec-S]

LongQ said:

Scientist discover that old trees are dying and assume it's due to climate change even though the trees have lived for hundreds of years in harsh climates.

More research needed of course.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-444...

Odd, perhaps, that these trees have only started to die (apparently) after the scientists started to visit them for research purposes.

Pure coincidence I would imagine. Strange though.

Yes, definitely a coincidence. Definitely...

Article said:

Unexpectedly, they found that eight of the 13 oldest and five of the six largest baobabs had either completely died or had their oldest parts collapse.

Unexpectedly... really?

In other news, 'scientists' discover that old people are more likely to die from old age than young people.

[budgie smuggler]

Zetec-S said:

Unexpectedly... really?

In other news, 'scientists' discover that old people are more likely to die from old age than young people.

Well yes, these trees are hard as nails and live for two to three thousand years, so for a number to die in a short period is indeed unexpected.

Not that it automatically implies climate change though of course.

[mko9]

Also, the mortality rate amongst the oldest humans on the planet was very high over the last 10 years. I expect that is also down to climate change.

[Terminator X]

grumbledoak said:

Lotus 50 said:

and 3: there's no other plausible cause for the increase in surface temps...

Except that big yellow thing in the sky, of course.

Or clouds. Or volcanic activity. Or our orbit around the Sun. Apologies again to the scientists if I'm barking up the wrong tree.

TX.

[Toltec]

budgie smuggler said:

Well yes, these trees are hard as nails and live for two to three thousand years, so for a number to die in a short period is indeed unexpected.

Not that it automatically implies climate change though of course.

Compared to the total population these 13 trees are massive outliers and are not going to be as robust as a healthy middle aged tree. By the look of the photo in the article that tree was not so much alive as not quite dead yet so even a relatively short environmental deviation that a younger tree would just weather will finally finish off an old tree.

There is a rather large and spectacular oak in the centre of a large roundabout close to where I live, when I moved in seventeen years ago and for several years afterward, while old it looked pretty healthy. A few years ago the council scooped out the earth around it, top dressed with chippings and did some other work on it, I presume in response to some kind of survey. Unfortunately the southern side now has no leaves on it and there are clearly many dead smaller branches. It is possible it could live or slowly die over another fifty years, though I suspect it will end up becoming unsafe before then and be removed.

[Terminator X]

Lotus 50 said:

grumbledoak said:

What drove global temperature changes before the Industrial Revolution then? And why did it stop?

So from your response I take it you've no evidence and concede that there is no convincing evidence to show that anything other than CO2 has cause the temp rises over the last 100 years or so.

In answer to your side-step question, over historic and geological timescales various different factors have caused surface temps to change, including changes in the Earth's orbit, solar output, greenhouse effects, vulcanism etc etc etc. They haven't stopped it's just that the current CO2 effect is super imposed on top of them and at present is over-riding them if they are causing cooling - hence it's still getting warmer.

Again apologies if a daft question, once you add some "tolerance" to the temp rise isn't it within what you'd expect to see from a general variations perspective ie the temp of the planet fluctuates up and down almost randomly in the very short term (100's, 1000's of years etc) and we are seeing no more than that? I really struggle with the "it's all CO2" mantra when surely it is vastly more complex than that?

TX.

[mondeoman]

Terminator X said:

Lotus 50 said:

grumbledoak said:

What drove global temperature changes before the Industrial Revolution then? And why did it stop?

So from your response I take it you've no evidence and concede that there is no convincing evidence to show that anything other than CO2 has cause the temp rises over the last 100 years or so.

In answer to your side-step question, over historic and geological timescales various different factors have caused surface temps to change, including changes in the Earth's orbit, solar output, greenhouse effects, vulcanism etc etc etc. They haven't stopped it's just that the current CO2 effect is super imposed on top of them and at present is over-riding them if they are causing cooling - hence it's still getting warmer.

Again apologies if a daft question, once you add some "tolerance" to the temp rise isn't it within what you'd expect to see from a general variations perspective ie the temp of the planet fluctuates up and down almost randomly in the very short term (100's, 1000's of years etc) and we are seeing no more than that? I really struggle with the "it's all CO2" mantra when surely it is vastly more complex than that?

TX.

Nope, you’re obviously in desperate need of re-education: co2 is the route to all evil.

[Flibble]

Interesting: Sucking carbon dioxide from air is cheaper than scientists thought

Maybe we can just suck up all the CO2?

[Toltec]

Flibble said:

Interesting: Sucking carbon dioxide from air is cheaper than scientists thought

Maybe we can just suck up all the CO2?

Still only viable if the power needed to do this is from non-co2 producing sources and is surplus to normal demand.

[Jinx]

Toltec said:

Flibble said:

Interesting: Sucking carbon dioxide from air is cheaper than scientists thought

Maybe we can just suck up all the CO2?

Still only viable if the power needed to do this is from non-co2 producing sources and is surplus to normal demand.

Could just use trees...... only saying.

[Toltec]

Jinx said:

Toltec said:

Flibble said:

Interesting: Sucking carbon dioxide from air is cheaper than scientists thought

Maybe we can just suck up all the CO2?

Still only viable if the power needed to do this is from non-co2 producing sources and is surplus to normal demand.

Could just use trees...... only saying.

[Atomic12C]

Can somebody fill in the blanks for me - I remember being told by the government that climate change will see the UK having much milder and much wetter summers - painting a gloomy future outlook for all us CO2 emitters.

Now we have the TV saying that there are lobby groups asking government to spend spend spend on protecting the UK from much sunnier and drier future summers. Because again, thousands are predicted to die. (At least its not Al Gore's millions this time)

So a question to the CO2 experts, which is it?

[Flibble]

Both probably.

Climate change tends to increase extreme events. So there will be more mega hot and dry summers and more mega wet summers, but fewer "normal" summers.

[Atomic12C]

Flibble said:

Both probably.

Climate change tends to increase extreme events. So there will be more mega hot and dry summers and more mega wet summers, but fewer "normal" summers.

Thats not quite how I remember it being publicised.
There was a definite pushing of the notion that if we weren't taxed on CO2 emissions then the UK's summer climate would become much wetter and milder. (Accepted with more extreme events thrown in for good measure - but these were more focused on storms).
In general though, the 'shift' was to a much milder and wetter "base setting".

True this would suggest that due to increased extremes, there could be some hot and dry periods, but on the whole the 'shift' meant it would be wetter, mild and gloomy.

But now the lobby groups seem to suggest that the 'shift' is the other direction, that being dryer and sunnier. And again the solution to this is more government spending of course.

Confused.

Edited by Atomic12C on Thursday 26th July 13:10

[Toltec]

Flibble said:

Both probably.

Climate change tends to increase extreme events. So there will be more mega hot and dry summers and more mega wet summers, but fewer "normal" summers.

Some people say that and others say it will reduce extreme weather as there will be lower temperature differentials.

What is a normal summer?

[Jinx]

Toltec said:

Flibble said:

Both probably.

Climate change tends to increase extreme events. So there will be more mega hot and dry summers and more mega wet summers, but fewer "normal" summers.

Some people say that and others say it will reduce extreme weather as there will be lower temperature differentials.

What is a normal summer?

https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/102184853... latest on normalized US tornado damage.....

I guess this means tornadoes and hurricanes will have to be defined as something other than extreme weather (they haven't got with the program) ......
Had to laugh this morning with the "in 20 years time" this summer's weather will be the new normal with up to 7000 deaths. I've heard the same thing for the last 30 years and with 2015/16 having 24000 excess winter deaths puts this 7000 into perspective....

[LittleBigPlanet]

Atomic12C said:

Can somebody fill in the blanks for me - I remember being told by the government that climate change will see the UK having much milder and much wetter summers - painting a gloomy future outlook for all us CO2 emitters.

Now we have the TV saying that there are lobby groups asking government to spend spend spend on protecting the UK from much sunnier and drier future summers. Because again, thousands are predicted to die. (At least its not Al Gore's millions this time)

So a question to the CO2 experts, which is it?

You can download and interrogate the UKCP09 projections whenever you like, here: http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/. Note, UKCP18 will be released in Nov/Dec which will supersede these but, at the time of writing, these are the latest climate projections for the UK.

In short, we can expect:
- The UKCP09 projections show that in the 2080s, and under a medium emissions scenario, all areas of the UK warm on average relative to the 1961-90 baseline.
- Summers warm more than winters, particularly in southern England
- Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures increase across the UK in both summer and winter
- Average annual precipitation changes little across the UK, but winter precipitation increases in western regions while summer precipitation decreases in many, but not all, parts of the UK.
- The average amount of summer cloud cover decreases in parts of southern UK
- Relative mean sea levels rise around the UK but more so in southern than northern UK owing to relative land movements
- Significant wave heights increase in the south east in winter and in northern Scotland in the autumn
- Sea surface temperatures rise throughout UK waters while salinities decline

Source: http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/21708

Note, 'the 'precipitation on the wettest day' variable is often used as a proxy for pluvial or 'flash flooding' potential. UKCP09 projections suggest that it will be wetter in all seasons apart from summer. However, we know that heavy summer rainfall is caused by convective currents bought about by thermal heating and evaporation. These convective currents are not well replicated in climate models. A recent project on this (CONVEX at Newcastle University) suggests that we can expect an increase in summer rainfall – given this study better represents these weather systems, this is more likely. The study also suggests that we can expect more intense summer rainfall events as temperatures rise.

Alongside the above, there is a whole separate report on extreme (or 'severe') weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, windstorms and cold snaps and how these events might change over the course of the next century. You can read that here: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/...

Might be worth having a read of the above.

[Einion Yrth]

This would be predictions from models that have already been demonstrated to be hopelessly inaccurate with respect to sensitivity to CO2, yes?

Don't think I'm going to be too worried.

[durbster]

Einion Yrth said:

This would be predictions from models that have already been demonstrated to be hopelessly inaccurate with respect to sensitivity to CO2, yes?

What are you basing that statement on?