Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

Author
Discussion

dickymint

24,346 posts

258 months

Thursday 18th June 2020
quotequote all
Toltec said:
So what might happen is that even if we stop producing any greenhouse gases ourselves the warming already predicted will cause a massive release of co2 which will make sure everything keeps heating up anyway?
"29 million cars evaporating into the atmosphere.”

What does that mean? Pure unscientific scaremongering - besides it's a mere drop in the ocean atmosphere as there are already 1.4 billion cars on the road already.


Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Thursday 18th June 2020
quotequote all
dickymint said:
Toltec said:
So what might happen is that even if we stop producing any greenhouse gases ourselves the warming already predicted will cause a massive release of co2 which will make sure everything keeps heating up anyway?
"29 million cars evaporating into the atmosphere.”

What does that mean? Pure unscientific scaremongering - besides it's a mere drop in the ocean atmosphere as there are already 1.4 billion cars on the road already.
As usual picking up on the analogy and not the science.

sleep

Got any views on the science in the report? Let me take a wild stab...

dickymint

24,346 posts

258 months

Thursday 18th June 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
dickymint said:
Toltec said:
So what might happen is that even if we stop producing any greenhouse gases ourselves the warming already predicted will cause a massive release of co2 which will make sure everything keeps heating up anyway?
"29 million cars evaporating into the atmosphere.”

What does that mean? Pure unscientific scaremongering - besides it's a mere drop in the ocean atmosphere as there are already 1.4 billion cars on the road already.
As usual picking up on the analogy and not the science.

sleep

Got any views on the science in the report? Let me take a wild stab...
As usual you try to provoke an argument.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Thursday 18th June 2020
quotequote all
dickymint said:
Gadgetmac said:
dickymint said:
Toltec said:
So what might happen is that even if we stop producing any greenhouse gases ourselves the warming already predicted will cause a massive release of co2 which will make sure everything keeps heating up anyway?
"29 million cars evaporating into the atmosphere.”

What does that mean? Pure unscientific scaremongering - besides it's a mere drop in the ocean atmosphere as there are already 1.4 billion cars on the road already.
As usual picking up on the analogy and not the science.

sleep

Got any views on the science in the report? Let me take a wild stab...
As usual you try to provoke an argument.
So that's a "No" again then. Colour me surprised.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
Arctic Circle sees 'highest-ever' recorded temperatures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-531...

"Verkhoyansk, home to about 1,300 people, sits just inside the Arctic Circle, in remote Siberia. It has an extreme climate with temperatures plunging in January to an average maximum of -42C and then surging in June to 20C.

But a persistent heatwave this year in the Arctic Circle has worried meteorologists. In March, April and May, the Copernicus Climate Change service reported that the average temperature was around 10C above normal."

"Year-on-year temperature records are being broken around the world, but the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth," said Dr Dann Mitchell, associate professor in atmospheric science at the University of Bristol. "So it is unsurprising to see records being broken in this region. We will see more of this in the near future."

"Over the last few months a large area of high pressure in eastern Russia has been dominant. This has led to southerly winds bringing warmer air from near the tropics, leading to higher than average temperatures.

However, the persistence of this weather pattern has led to a longevity and scale of heat that is worrying. This is consistent with what climatologists believe will happen in the Arctic with climate change.

Most scientists agree that over the past 30 years, the Arctic has warmed at a rate of twice the global average.

The graphic below shows that across the globe, through the period 1960-2019, average air temperature has generally increased by around 1C.

However, as you head closer to the North Pole - latitude 90° - the reds become darker. This shows how the temperature has increased here more than anywhere else - by around 4C."



"Warming in the Arctic is leading to the thawing of once permanently frozen permafrost below ground.

This is alarming scientists because as permafrost thaws, carbon dioxide and methane previously locked up below ground is released.

These greenhouse gases can cause further warming, and further thawing of the permafrost, in a vicious cycle known as positive feedback.

The higher temperatures also cause land ice in the Arctic to melt at a faster rate, leading to greater run-off into the ocean where it contributes to sea-level rise."

Hottest year ever?

"The Met Office, the UK's national weather service, reckons there's a 50:50 chance it'll be the hottest year ever recorded.

Much of northern Europe and Asia has had an exceptionally mild spring and early summer with temperatures 10C higher than normal in some areas.

The hottest year to date is 2016. It is still a nose ahead, but the margins are "very close".

PRTVR

7,108 posts

221 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
Arctic Circle sees 'highest-ever' recorded temperatures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-531...

"Verkhoyansk, home to about 1,300 people, sits just inside the Arctic Circle, in remote Siberia. It has an extreme climate with temperatures plunging in January to an average maximum of -42C and then surging in June to 20C.

But a persistent heatwave this year in the Arctic Circle has worried meteorologists. In March, April and May, the Copernicus Climate Change service reported that the average temperature was around 10C above normal."

"Year-on-year temperature records are being broken around the world, but the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth," said Dr Dann Mitchell, associate professor in atmospheric science at the University of Bristol. "So it is unsurprising to see records being broken in this region. We will see more of this in the near future."

"Over the last few months a large area of high pressure in eastern Russia has been dominant. This has led to southerly winds bringing warmer air from near the tropics, leading to higher than average temperatures.

However, the persistence of this weather pattern has led to a longevity and scale of heat that is worrying. This is consistent with what climatologists believe will happen in the Arctic with climate change.

Most scientists agree that over the past 30 years, the Arctic has warmed at a rate of twice the global average.

The graphic below shows that across the globe, through the period 1960-2019, average air temperature has generally increased by around 1C.

However, as you head closer to the North Pole - latitude 90° - the reds become darker. This shows how the temperature has increased here more than anywhere else - by around 4C."



"Warming in the Arctic is leading to the thawing of once permanently frozen permafrost below ground.

This is alarming scientists because as permafrost thaws, carbon dioxide and methane previously locked up below ground is released.

These greenhouse gases can cause further warming, and further thawing of the permafrost, in a vicious cycle known as positive feedback.

The higher temperatures also cause land ice in the Arctic to melt at a faster rate, leading to greater run-off into the ocean where it contributes to sea-level rise."

Hottest year ever?

"The Met Office, the UK's national weather service, reckons there's a 50:50 chance it'll be the hottest year ever recorded.

Much of northern Europe and Asia has had an exceptionally mild spring and early summer with temperatures 10C higher than normal in some areas.

The hottest year to date is 2016. It is still a nose ahead, but the margins are "very close".
As the article says "it sits just inside the arctic circle "
What are your thoughts on the record cold temperature recorded in Greenland in January this year?
https://electroverse.net/greenland-just-set-a-new-...
I had a look for a BBC link but unsurprisingly I couldn't find one. hehe

durbster

10,276 posts

222 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
As the article says "it sits just inside the arctic circle "
What are your thoughts on the record cold temperature recorded in Greenland in January this year?
https://electroverse.net/greenland-just-set-a-new-...
I had a look for a BBC link but unsurprisingly I couldn't find one. hehe
While you were looking for a BBC link, did it ever cross your mind to question your own source?

According to this unbiased site, the lowest temperature at Camp Summit in January 2020 was -15C, not -66C as your link claims.
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/greenland/summ...

Not that it really makes any difference.

kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
Gadgetmac said:
Arctic Circle sees 'highest-ever' recorded temperatures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-531...

"Verkhoyansk, home to about 1,300 people, sits just inside the Arctic Circle, in remote Siberia. It has an extreme climate with temperatures plunging in January to an average maximum of -42C and then surging in June to 20C.

But a persistent heatwave this year in the Arctic Circle has worried meteorologists. In March, April and May, the Copernicus Climate Change service reported that the average temperature was around 10C above normal."

"Year-on-year temperature records are being broken around the world, but the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth," said Dr Dann Mitchell, associate professor in atmospheric science at the University of Bristol. "So it is unsurprising to see records being broken in this region. We will see more of this in the near future."

"Over the last few months a large area of high pressure in eastern Russia has been dominant. This has led to southerly winds bringing warmer air from near the tropics, leading to higher than average temperatures.

However, the persistence of this weather pattern has led to a longevity and scale of heat that is worrying. This is consistent with what climatologists believe will happen in the Arctic with climate change.

Most scientists agree that over the past 30 years, the Arctic has warmed at a rate of twice the global average.

The graphic below shows that across the globe, through the period 1960-2019, average air temperature has generally increased by around 1C.

However, as you head closer to the North Pole - latitude 90° - the reds become darker. This shows how the temperature has increased here more than anywhere else - by around 4C."



"Warming in the Arctic is leading to the thawing of once permanently frozen permafrost below ground.

This is alarming scientists because as permafrost thaws, carbon dioxide and methane previously locked up below ground is released.

These greenhouse gases can cause further warming, and further thawing of the permafrost, in a vicious cycle known as positive feedback.

The higher temperatures also cause land ice in the Arctic to melt at a faster rate, leading to greater run-off into the ocean where it contributes to sea-level rise."

Hottest year ever?

"The Met Office, the UK's national weather service, reckons there's a 50:50 chance it'll be the hottest year ever recorded.

Much of northern Europe and Asia has had an exceptionally mild spring and early summer with temperatures 10C higher than normal in some areas.

The hottest year to date is 2016. It is still a nose ahead, but the margins are "very close".
As the article says "it sits just inside the arctic circle "
What are your thoughts on the record cold temperature recorded in Greenland in January this year?
https://electroverse.net/greenland-just-set-a-new-...
I had a look for a BBC link but unsurprisingly I couldn't find one. hehe
New record daily lows are set at stations around the world quite frequently so in climate-change terms it's uninteresting.

What does the trend at Summit Camp look like?

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
What excellent sources PRTVR has for his science, From that link...

This could be big.

Prepare.

The cold times are returning, in line with historically low solar activity.

The jet stream is weakening, diverting brutal polar cold to the lower-latitudes:

This is how glaciers form.

This is also how ice ages begin.

Prepare accordingly — grow your own.


:rofl


kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
Prepare accordingly — grow your own.
hippy

Strange how they don't do any trend analysis isn't it.

It's effectively treating your readership like suckers to present a new record daily low as significant like that.

PRTVR

7,108 posts

221 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
New record daily lows are set at stations around the world quite frequently so in climate-change terms it's uninteresting.

What does the trend at Summit Camp look like?
But recorded highs are significant and make it into the BBC website, but record lows are totally ignored.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/jan-2020-coldest-...

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
New record daily lows are set at stations around the world quite frequently so in climate-change terms it's uninteresting.

What does the trend at Summit Camp look like?
But recorded highs are significant and make it into the BBC website, but record lows are totally ignored.
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/jan-2020-coldest-...
That's one day and You're not answering Kerplunk's question.

Try again...

Kawasicki

13,091 posts

235 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all

kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
New record daily lows are set at stations around the world quite frequently so in climate-change terms it's uninteresting.

What does the trend at Summit Camp look like?
But recorded highs are significant and make it into the BBC website, but record lows are totally ignored.
That appears contrary to the evidence:

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q=recor...

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
New record daily lows are set at stations around the world quite frequently so in climate-change terms it's uninteresting.

What does the trend at Summit Camp look like?
But recorded highs are significant and make it into the BBC website, but record lows are totally ignored.
That appears contrary to the evidence:

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q=recor...
Please, don't get in the way of a good conspiracy theory, it's not like we have enough of them on PH to start with.

PRTVR

7,108 posts

221 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
New record daily lows are set at stations around the world quite frequently so in climate-change terms it's uninteresting.

What does the trend at Summit Camp look like?
But recorded highs are significant and make it into the BBC website, but record lows are totally ignored.
That appears contrary to the evidence:

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q=recor...
The record low I was referring to was Greenland, an area that the BBC has focused on over the last few years,
https://www.google.co.uk/search?sxsrf=ALeKk01v7YUN...
With all that interest you would have thought a record low would be worth a mention. wink

kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
New record daily lows are set at stations around the world quite frequently so in climate-change terms it's uninteresting.

What does the trend at Summit Camp look like?
But recorded highs are significant and make it into the BBC website, but record lows are totally ignored.
That appears contrary to the evidence:

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&as_q=recor...
The record low I was referring to was Greenland, an area that the BBC has focused on over the last few years,
https://www.google.co.uk/search?sxsrf=ALeKk01v7YUN...
With all that interest you would have thought a record low would be worth a mention. wink
Can't see a story about a new record daily high for Greenland.

I have doubts it was a new record for Greenland (maybe just that station). Jo Nova trumpets it as such citing confirmation from DMI in a reply to Paul Homewood but leaves out this bit of the reply:

"I do not know if that a record breaking temperature at NOAA Geosummit. You have to ask NOAA about that?"

So the DMI haven't confirmed a new record for that station let alone Greenland.

Without some official agency declaring it I doubt the beeb would run it.

Wiki has the Greenland record low at -66.1C at North Face in January 1954:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_reco...





durbster

10,276 posts

222 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
The record low I was referring to was Greenland, an area that the BBC has focused on over the last few years,
https://www.google.co.uk/search?sxsrf=ALeKk01v7YUN...
With all that interest you would have thought a record low would be worth a mention. wink
Your only evidence that this happened is that somebody said so on some home made blog that nobody's heard of.

It turns out Greenland actually had a record high temperature on that day. It was recorded at 89.36 degrees C at midday.

And now I've published that claim on a website, it has as much validity as your source. Do you believe my statement too?

So perhaps the reason you can't find a BBC story about it is that it didn't actually happen, and they don't just accept something as fact because it's written on the internet.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Thursday 25th June 2020
quotequote all
More on the unusual Verkhoyansk temperature readings of late:

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-arctic-siberian-alar...






excerpts:

Persistently warm weather, especially if coupled with wildfires, causes permafrost to thaw faster, which in turn exacerbates global warming by releasing large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that's 28 times stronger than carbon dioxide, said Katey Walter Anthony, a University of Alaska Fairbanks expert on methane release from frozen Arctic soil.

"Methane escaping from permafrost thaw sites enters the atmosphere and circulates around the globe," she said. "Methane that originates in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. It has global ramifications."

And what happens in the Arctic can even warp the weather in the United States and Europe.




In the summer, the unusual warming lessens the temperature and pressure difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes where more people live, said Judah Cohen, a winter weather expert at Atmospheric Environmental Research, a commercial firm outside Boston.

That seems to weaken and sometimes even stall the jet stream, meaning weather systems such as those bringing extreme heat or rain can stay parked over places for days on end, Cohen said.




Scientists agree that the spike is indicative of a much bigger global warming trend.

"The key point is that the climate is changing and global temperatures are warming," said Freja Vamborg, senior scientist at the Copernicus Climate Change Service in the U.K. "We will be breaking more and more records as we go."

"What is clear is that the warming Arctic adds fuel to the warming of the whole planet," said Waleed Abdalati, a former NASA chief scientist who is now at the University of Colorado.


dickymint

24,346 posts

258 months

Thursday 25th June 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
More on the unusual Verkhoyansk temperature readings of late:

https://phys.org/news/2020-06-arctic-siberian-alar...






excerpts:

Persistently warm weather, especially if coupled with wildfires, causes permafrost to thaw faster, which in turn exacerbates global warming by releasing large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that's 28 times stronger than carbon dioxide, said Katey Walter Anthony, a University of Alaska Fairbanks expert on methane release from frozen Arctic soil.

"Methane escaping from permafrost thaw sites enters the atmosphere and circulates around the globe," she said. "Methane that originates in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. It has global ramifications."

And what happens in the Arctic can even warp the weather in the United States and Europe.




In the summer, the unusual warming lessens the temperature and pressure difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes where more people live, said Judah Cohen, a winter weather expert at Atmospheric Environmental Research, a commercial firm outside Boston.

That seems to weaken and sometimes even stall the jet stream, meaning weather systems such as those bringing extreme heat or rain can stay parked over places for days on end, Cohen said.




Scientists agree that the spike is indicative of a much bigger global warming trend.

"The key point is that the climate is changing and global temperatures are warming," said Freja Vamborg, senior scientist at the Copernicus Climate Change Service in the U.K. "We will be breaking more and more records as we go."

"What is clear is that the warming Arctic adds fuel to the warming of the whole planet," said Waleed Abdalati, a former NASA chief scientist who is now at the University of Colorado.
Your "excerpts" are nice freshly picked cherries - you couldn't even bring yourself to quote the headline.....

"The Arctic is on fire: Siberian heat wave alarms scientists".