Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

Author
Discussion

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Saturday 24th October 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
It's snow/precipitation, there are no trends being bucked or records being set that aren't expected to be set.

In fact you'd have a more coherent argument if precipitation records WEREN'T being set in those regions. biggrin
Precipitation yes but not snow records,
so all the years there were no records broken for Precipitation disproves global warming. wink

kerplunk

7,052 posts

205 months

Saturday 24th October 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
Gadgetmac said:
It's snow/precipitation, there are no trends being bucked or records being set that aren't expected to be set.

In fact you'd have a more coherent argument if precipitation records WEREN'T being set in those regions. biggrin
Precipitation yes but not snow records,
so all the years there were no records broken for Precipitation disproves global warming. wink
Talking past this:

"To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation. Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events. This includes more heavy snowstorms in regions where snowfall conditions are favourable. Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events."

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Saturday 24th October 2020
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
Gadgetmac said:
It's snow/precipitation, there are no trends being bucked or records being set that aren't expected to be set.

In fact you'd have a more coherent argument if precipitation records WEREN'T being set in those regions. biggrin
Precipitation yes but not snow records,
so all the years there were no records broken for Precipitation disproves global warming. wink
Talking past this:

"To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation. Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events. This includes more heavy snowstorms in regions where snowfall conditions are favourable. Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events."
It's almost as if that paragraph didn't exist.

Word blindness' is an old-fashioned term used to mean that a person is unable to recognize and understand words that he sees.

Alaska is showing the greatest increase in temps in America and yet...

Climate Change Has Doubled Snowfall in Alaska

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate...

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Saturday 24th October 2020
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
Gadgetmac said:
It's snow/precipitation, there are no trends being bucked or records being set that aren't expected to be set.

In fact you'd have a more coherent argument if precipitation records WEREN'T being set in those regions. biggrin
Precipitation yes but not snow records,
so all the years there were no records broken for Precipitation disproves global warming. wink
Talking past this:

"To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation. Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events. This includes more heavy snowstorms in regions where snowfall conditions are favourable. Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events."
It cannot be both, in a warming climate climate we should see more precipitation, in an area like the Arctic we should see more snow,
So is it more or less snow we should see in the Arctic?

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Saturday 24th October 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
kerplunk said:
PRTVR said:
Gadgetmac said:
It's snow/precipitation, there are no trends being bucked or records being set that aren't expected to be set.

In fact you'd have a more coherent argument if precipitation records WEREN'T being set in those regions. biggrin
Precipitation yes but not snow records,
so all the years there were no records broken for Precipitation disproves global warming. wink
Talking past this:

"To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation. Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events. This includes more heavy snowstorms in regions where snowfall conditions are favourable. Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events."
It cannot be both, in a warming climate climate we should see more precipitation, in an area like the Arctic we should see more snow,
So is it more or less snow we should see in the Arctic?
You've chosen "snowfall" in The USA as your battleground in order to try and make some point about the global temperature overall remaining the same but somehow being reorganized into other zones ie; it's getting warmer in the Arctic but as there is increased snowfall (not even falling temps but increased snowfall) in a few northern states of the USA that balances it all out ...is that right?

Seriously?

You know that there's relatively little snowfall in the Arctic right? It's not a land mass like the Antarctic it's a frozen sea.

"Snow Cover over Sea Ice

Because the Arctic Ocean is mostly covered by ice and surrounded by land, precipitation is relatively rare. Snowfall tends to be low, except near the ice edge. Antarctica, however, is entirely surrounded by ocean, so moisture is more readily available. Antarctic sea ice tends to be covered by thicker snow, which may accumulate to the point that the weight of snow pushes the ice below sea level, causing the snow to become flooded by salty ocean waters."

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Saturday 24th October 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
You've chosen "snowfall" in The USA as your battleground in order to try and make some point about the global temperature overall remaining the same but somehow being reorganized into other zones ie; it's getting warmer in the Arctic but as there is increased snowfall (not even falling temps but increased snowfall) in a few northern states of the USA that balances it all out ...is that right?

Seriously?
No I was pointing out that the cold air is coming from the Arctic down over North America allowing a change in temperatures in the Arctic, its not new "heat" just as whats happening in America is not new "cold"

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Saturday 24th October 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
Gadgetmac said:
You've chosen "snowfall" in The USA as your battleground in order to try and make some point about the global temperature overall remaining the same but somehow being reorganized into other zones ie; it's getting warmer in the Arctic but as there is increased snowfall (not even falling temps but increased snowfall) in a few northern states of the USA that balances it all out ...is that right?

Seriously?
No I was pointing out that the cold air is coming from the Arctic down over North America allowing a change in temperatures in the Arctic, its not new "heat" just as whats happening in America is not new "cold"
No it’s not new heat it’s been happening for decades, it’s a trend.

So your argument logically takes you to ‘It’s getting colder in North Amerca’ not warmer and it likewise is an equal but opposite trend? Yes?

Is it getting colder in North America? biggrin




kerplunk

7,052 posts

205 months

Saturday 24th October 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
Gadgetmac said:
You've chosen "snowfall" in The USA as your battleground in order to try and make some point about the global temperature overall remaining the same but somehow being reorganized into other zones ie; it's getting warmer in the Arctic but as there is increased snowfall (not even falling temps but increased snowfall) in a few northern states of the USA that balances it all out ...is that right?

Seriously?
No I was pointing out that the cold air is coming from the Arctic down over North America allowing a change in temperatures in the Arctic, its not new "heat" just as whats happening in America is not new "cold"
So that's a yes then

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Wednesday 28th October 2020
quotequote all
Coastal Greenland reshaped as Greenland ice sheet mass loss accelerates

https://phys.org/news/2020-10-coastal-greenland-re...

Extract

Ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has accelerated significantly over the past two decades, transforming the shape of the ice sheet edge and therefore coastal Greenland, according to scientific research led by Twila Moon, deputy lead scientist of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. These changes to the ice sheet could have far-reaching impacts on ecosystems and communities, as the flow of water under the ice sheet as well as nutrient and sediment flow are altered. Results of the research were published on October 27 in the American Geophysical Union's Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface.

"The speed of ice loss in Greenland is stunning," said Moon. "We can now see many signs of a transformed landscape from space. And as the ice sheet edge responds to rapid ice loss, the character and behavior of the system as a whole is changing, with the potential to influence ecosystems and people who depend on them."

The researchers compiled data from NASA, the United States Geological Survey, and other satellites from 1985 to 2015 to compare ice edge position, ice sheet surface elevation, and glacier flow over three decades. Advancements in satellite technology allowed them to observe the changes to the ice sheet in much greater detail than was possible in the past. Much of the data used was from the NASA Inter-mission Time Series of Land Ice Velocity and Elevation (ITS_LIVE) project, which facilitates ice sheet, ice shelf, and glacier research by providing a global record of land ice velocity and elevation derived from nearly three decades of satellite observations.

Using these comparisons, the researchers developed a few key findings. The most consistent trend, found across the entire ice sheet, is widespread ice edge retreat. While there is a range of behavior among glaciers across the ice sheet, there is a noticeable lack of sustained ocean-connected glacier advance. Out of 225 ocean-connected glaciers that were measured, none have substantially advanced while 200 have retreated, particularly since 2000. This is notable even in regions dominated by slower-moving glaciers and cooler ocean water, such as the northern and northeastern regions of the ice sheet.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Thursday 29th October 2020
quotequote all
More science to blow the cobwebs away...

Arctic sea ice at record low October levels: Danish institute

https://phys.org/news/2020-10-arctic-sea-ice-octob...

Extract:

Sea ice in the Arctic was at record lows for October, as unusually warm waters slowed the recovery of the ice, Danish researchers said Wednesday.

Diminishing sea ice comes as a reminder about how the Arctic is hit particularly hard by global warming.

Since the 1990s, warming has been twice as fast in the Arctic, compared to the rest of the world, as a phenomena dubbed "Arctic amplification," causes air, ice and water to interact in a reinforcing manner.

"The October Arctic sea ice extent is going to be the lowest on record and the sea ice growth rate is slower than normal," Rasmus Tonboe, a scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), told AFP, noting that the record was unequalled for at least 40 years.

According to preliminary satellite data used by the institute, sea ice surface area was at 6.5 million square kilometres (2.5 million square miles) on 27 October.

Every year, some of the ice formed in the Arctic waters melts in the summer.

It usually reaches a low point of about five million square kilometres, but then re-forms to cover about 15 million square kilometres in winter. Warmer temperatures are now reducing both the summer and winter extent of the ice.

Satellite data has been collected to monitor the ice precisely since 1979, and the trend towards a reduction is clear.

For the month of October, measurements show an 8.2 percent downward trend in ice over the last 10 years.

Already in September, researchers noted the second lowest extent of sea ice recorded in the Arctic, though not quite hitting the low levels recorded in 2012.

But warmer-than-normal sea water slowed the formation of new ice in October.

'Vicious spiral'

Water temperatures in the eastern part of the Arctic, north of Siberia, was two to four degrees warmer than normal, and in Baffin Bay, it was one to two degrees warmer, DMI said in a statement.

The institute said this was following a trend observed in recent years, which was described as a "vicious spiral."

"It's a trend we've been seeing the past years, with a longer open water season making the sun warm the sea for a longer time, resulting in shorter winters so the ice doesn't grow as thick as it used to," Tonboe said.

For some further reading try: https://phys.org/news/2020-09-arctic-summer-sea-ic...


Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Thursday 29th October 2020
quotequote all
'Moderate to strong' La Niña weather event develops in the Pacific

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-547...

"This La Niña, which is set to last through the first quarter of 2021, will likely have a cooling effect on global temperatures.

But it won't prevent 2020 from being one of the warmest years on record."

There are likely to be more storms in Canada and the northern US, often leading to snowy conditions.

While a La Niña event normally exerts a cooling influence on the world, this is unlikely to make too much of a difference to 2020.

"La Niña typically has a cooling effect on global temperatures, but this is more than offset by the heat trapped in our atmosphere by greenhouse gases," said Prof Petteri Taalas, from the WMO.

"Therefore, 2020 remains on track to be one of the warmest years on record and 2016-2020 is expected to be the warmest five-year period on record," he said

"La Niña years now are warmer even than years with strong El Niño events of the past."

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Friday 30th October 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
More science to blow the cobwebs away...

Arctic sea ice at record low October levels: Danish institute

https://phys.org/news/2020-10-arctic-sea-ice-octob...

Extract:

Sea ice in the Arctic was at record lows for October, as unusually warm waters slowed the recovery of the ice, Danish researchers said Wednesday.

Diminishing sea ice comes as a reminder about how the Arctic is hit particularly hard by global warming.

Since the 1990s, warming has been twice as fast in the Arctic, compared to the rest of the world, as a phenomena dubbed "Arctic amplification," causes air, ice and water to interact in a reinforcing manner.

"The October Arctic sea ice extent is going to be the lowest on record and the sea ice growth rate is slower than normal," Rasmus Tonboe, a scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), told AFP, noting that the record was unequalled for at least 40 years.

According to preliminary satellite data used by the institute, sea ice surface area was at 6.5 million square kilometres (2.5 million square miles) on 27 October.

Every year, some of the ice formed in the Arctic waters melts in the summer.

It usually reaches a low point of about five million square kilometres, but then re-forms to cover about 15 million square kilometres in winter. Warmer temperatures are now reducing both the summer and winter extent of the ice.

Satellite data has been collected to monitor the ice precisely since 1979, and the trend towards a reduction is clear.

For the month of October, measurements show an 8.2 percent downward trend in ice over the last 10 years.

Already in September, researchers noted the second lowest extent of sea ice recorded in the Arctic, though not quite hitting the low levels recorded in 2012.

But warmer-than-normal sea water slowed the formation of new ice in October.

'Vicious spiral'

Water temperatures in the eastern part of the Arctic, north of Siberia, was two to four degrees warmer than normal, and in Baffin Bay, it was one to two degrees warmer, DMI said in a statement.

The institute said this was following a trend observed in recent years, which was described as a "vicious spiral."

"It's a trend we've been seeing the past years, with a longer open water season making the sun warm the sea for a longer time, resulting in shorter winters so the ice doesn't grow as thick as it used to," Tonboe said.

For some further reading try: https://phys.org/news/2020-09-arctic-summer-sea-ic...
Here is a link to an examination of whats happening in the Arctic, also what is happening in Greenland.


https://youtu.be/jCha9_U8Dlk

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Friday 30th October 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
Here is a link to an examination of whats happening in the Arctic, also what is happening in Greenland.


https://youtu.be/jCha9_U8Dlk
Watched it right up to the point where he asks “...what are they hiding in the grey area on the map?” 12:18. And then goes on to link all of this to some conspiracy around the world bank at 13:40.

At that point what little credibility it had (and it wasn’t much) disappeared beneath an avalanche of conspiracy nonsense for me.

Time to hit the [close] button.

But then I thought No, give it another go, theres only a few minutes left....

Anonymous author. Tick
Asks you the viewer “whats happening?” on many occasions. Tick
Keeps saying “I think...” Tick
Insinuates science is deliberately hiding something Tick
Links to global conspiracy Tick

I should know better than to fall for the YouTube link by now. frown

ETA Just read through the comments, what a great 15 minutes that was, better than the video itself. Everything from The Scriptures to Secret Russian Weather Experiments and American Military Secret Weapons Testing cited as a possible causes. Loads of comments on the possibility of a new Ice Age. Oh and one guy says its a previously undiscovered Super Volcano inviting you to check out his other YouTube vids. laugh


Edited by Gadgetmac on Saturday 31st October 00:16

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Saturday 31st October 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
PRTVR said:
Here is a link to an examination of whats happening in the Arctic, also what is happening in Greenland.


https://youtu.be/jCha9_U8Dlk
Watched it right up to the point where he asks “...what are they hiding in the grey area on the map?” 12:18. And then goes on to link all of this to some conspiracy around the world bank at 13:40.

At that point what little credibility it had (and it wasn’t much) disappeared beneath an avalanche of conspiracy nonsense for me.

Time to hit the [close] button.

But then I thought No, give it another go, theres only a few minutes left....

Anonymous author. Tick
Asks you the viewer “whats happening?” on many occasions. Tick
Keeps saying “I think...” Tick
Insinuates science is deliberately hiding something Tick
Links to global conspiracy Tick

I should know better than to fall for the YouTube link by now. frown

ETA Just read through the comments, what a great 15 minutes that was, better than the video itself. Everything from The Scriptures to Secret Russian Weather Experiments and American Military Secret Weapons Testing cited as a possible causes. Loads of comments on the possibility of a new Ice Age. Oh and one guy says its a previously undiscovered Super Volcano inviting you to check out his other YouTube vids. laugh


Edited by Gadgetmac on Saturday 31st October 00:16
hehe, I thought you would enjoy that,

But in alongside all the rubbish was something that sparked my interest , Greenland ice, so I went over to here

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

And if you scroll down to the section surface mass balance you will see that things have returned to normal,
now if you google Greenland and ice there is no mention of it, surely if it was so bad the previous years this would be cause for celebration ?
The changes that are happening in the Arctic are interesting, but is it an indication of a long term trend or just natural variation, if multiple record breaking cold temperatures in America can be explained by natural events why not a small rise in temperatures in the Arctic?


anonymous-user

53 months

Saturday 31st October 2020
quotequote all
Interesting that on this thread one side of the debate quotes reputable scientific journals and the other links to youtubers.

robinessex

11,046 posts

180 months

Saturday 31st October 2020
quotequote all
El stovey said:
Interesting that on this thread one side of the debate quotes reputable scientific journals and the other links to youtubers.
I assume the word reputable is a joke then?

PRTVR

7,072 posts

220 months

Saturday 31st October 2020
quotequote all
El stovey said:
Interesting that on this thread one side of the debate quotes reputable scientific journals and the other links to youtubers.
The link above is NSIDC,
Here is a link to the record cold temperatures falling in America, 30°c below normal, think about that for a moment, not just one degree warmer than the past.........
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/arcti...
Here is a YouTube video of the effects of the ice storm in Oklahoma City.


https://youtu.be/-x744QnIokI

anonymous-user

53 months

Saturday 31st October 2020
quotequote all
robinessex said:
El stovey said:
Interesting that on this thread one side of the debate quotes reputable scientific journals and the other links to youtubers.
I assume the word reputable is a joke then?
When I saw them talking about Greenland earlier, I wondered if you might post that it used to be green again hehe

robinessex

11,046 posts

180 months

Saturday 31st October 2020
quotequote all
El stovey said:
robinessex said:
El stovey said:
Interesting that on this thread one side of the debate quotes reputable scientific journals and the other links to youtubers.
I assume the word reputable is a joke then?
When I saw them talking about Greenland earlier, I wondered if you might post that it used to be green again hehe
Unless you're stupid, you should know the land name 'Greenland' isn't a literal meaning.

Edited by robinessex on Saturday 31st October 11:45

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

107 months

Saturday 31st October 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
hehe, I thought you would enjoy that,

But in alongside all the rubbish was something that sparked my interest , Greenland ice, so I went over to here

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

And if you scroll down to the section surface mass balance you will see that things have returned to normal,
now if you google Greenland and ice there is no mention of it, surely if it was so bad the previous years this would be cause for celebration ?
The changes that are happening in the Arctic are interesting, but is it an indication of a long term trend or just natural variation, if multiple record breaking cold temperatures in America can be explained by natural events why not a small rise in temperatures in the Arctic?
Is it part of a downward trend or are temperatures still trending upwards in the US?