Red Bull Vs Ferarri

Red Bull Vs Ferarri

Author
Discussion

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Monday 8th July 2019
quotequote all
We started this season with a supposed Merc v Ferrari 'battle'. But Ferrari have effectively won that battle (for Mercedes..).

Red bull v Ferrari though? That's starting to play out very nicely. The points won't reflect how close the two teams are this season, not with Gasly's performance - but the hard truth is that in their Ferrari's, niether driver has been able to out-perform Max and exceed his points tally. On paper at least, Ferrari are far closer to Red Bull than they are to Mercedes. We're it not for Gasly they would be in a somewhat desperate fight with Red Bull just to secure second in the WCC.

Do we think Max can end the season ahead of either Ferrari driver? Is this a true challenge or just some luck and circumstance?

AllyBassman

657 posts

67 months

Monday 8th July 2019
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
Do we think Max can end the season ahead of either Ferrari driver? Is this a true challenge or just some luck and circumstance?
Max seems to be able to keep himself in a position to pick up the pieces when Ferrari are off the boil with reliability or tactics. Not wanting to take anything away from him or RB, but Ferrari do have the quicker car (when they get it right!)

Luck and circumstance i'd say.

I don't think he will finish ahead of either of them, but we have plenty or races to go and anything is possible!

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Monday 8th July 2019
quotequote all
AllyBassman said:
Max seems to be able to keep himself in a position to pick up the pieces when Ferrari are off the boil with reliability or tactics. Not wanting to take anything away from him or RB, but Ferrari do have the quicker car (when they get it right!)

Luck and circumstance i'd say.

I don't think he will finish ahead of either of them, but we have plenty or races to go and anything is possible!
I'm also on the fence right now. I think through the course of the season so far the red bull is quicker in general than I expected, sometimes surprisingly so. In Austria they were crazy quick for the final laps because they turned the power to '11'. Is that representative of the real race pace of their car? Well, it didn't go bang and honda were at the race and must have concluded it would cope - I imagine that shows the potential for the car to get a full time power increase later this season.

It's probably headed to be close enough to Ferrari speed to make up the difference in terms of corner speed and general handling. I expect it'll be so close overall that luck and circumstance could easily swing the result either way...

Ferrari will end second this season come what may. On merit though, I'm not sure they're demonstrating and real advantage over red bull so far

HustleRussell

17,883 posts

115 months

Monday 8th July 2019
quotequote all
Verstappen is ahead of Vettel by a whisker currently. I think team strategy will play a greater role in fixing or reversing that situation over the remainder of the season compared to driver performance.

Ferrari are now positive about their recent developments, they are reliable and they have two drivers in the frame.

Conversely, Gasly isn't doing the job for Red Bull and both drivers are likely to have grid penalties towards the end of the season.

I say 'team strategy' because my feeling is that in view of the above, Verstappen and Red Bull are more interested in scoring the occasional headline-grabbing win and risking the reliability rather than taking a regular points haul for 3rd / 4th / 5th. Witness the Austrian Grand Prix.

I don't think Red Bull has a chance to beat Ferrari in the constructors, but if the stars align Verstappen may well retain 3rd in the championship. He and Red Bull have tended to come on strong at the end of the season in recent years. When they were Renault powered they tended to go well at the hot n' high weekends in Mexico and Brazil.

Nigel_O

1,822 posts

174 months

Monday 8th July 2019
quotequote all
My guess is that Max will be ahead of both Ferrari drivers in the WDC, but Ferrari will be ahead of Red Bull Racing in the WCC. Gasly's lack of performance will probably cost Red Bull second in the WCC (unless he's replaced PDQ with someone exceptional)

I'm not a Verstappen fan, but its difficult to argue against his change of fortune this year - as well as the obvious gains from the power unit, Max seems to have matured, with less of the questionable race decisions he used to make. The raw racing instinct is still there though, which is what will set him apart from a driver who is merely "good"

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Monday 8th July 2019
quotequote all
Nigel_O said:
My guess is that Max will be ahead of both Ferrari drivers in the WDC, but Ferrari will be ahead of Red Bull Racing in the WCC. Gasly's lack of performance will probably cost Red Bull second in the WCC (unless he's replaced PDQ with someone exceptional)

I'm not a Verstappen fan, but its difficult to argue against his change of fortune this year - as well as the obvious gains from the power unit, Max seems to have matured, with less of the questionable race decisions he used to make. The raw racing instinct is still there though, which is what will set him apart from a driver who is merely "good"
Red Bull clearly won't beat Ferrari in WCC, I don't think anyone see's that as a possibilty at this stage...

Max could does have a very realistic chance of besting either or both Ferrari drivers in the WDC though. The fact that Red Bull now can't take second in the WCC doesn't mean the Ferrari is the better car this year though - Red Bull are effectively handicapped by Gasly sadly.

ajprice

17,616 posts

151 months

Monday 22nd July 2019
quotequote all
https://twitter.com/tgruener/status/11531918462748...
(Article in the Twitter link is in German, Chrome will auto translate it.)

Other teams think Ferrari have a 40bhp advantage in qualifying that isn't there in the race. Mercedes did some maths based on GPS data. At Silverstone Ferraris overtaking Red Bulls was a struggle (not including Vettel's bumper cars in this), but Red Bull easily had the speed to overtake Ferrari. It might be Ferrari updates concentrating on downforce, it might be something weird. They can't change the car between quali and race, so why don't they have the straight line speed on a Sunday?

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Monday 22nd July 2019
quotequote all
ajprice said:
https://twitter.com/tgruener/status/11531918462748...
(Article in the Twitter link is in German, Chrome will auto translate it.)

Other teams think Ferrari have a 40bhp advantage in qualifying that isn't there in the race. Mercedes did some maths based on GPS data. At Silverstone Ferraris overtaking Red Bulls was a struggle (not including Vettel's bumper cars in this), but Red Bull easily had the speed to overtake Ferrari. It might be Ferrari updates concentrating on downforce, it might be something weird. They can't change the car between quali and race, so why don't they have the straight line speed on a Sunday?
Possibly they have data from the engine which suggests it's too risky to run for more than the odd fast quali lap in clean air, and have subsequently locked away the extra power in race modes?

40bhp isn't actually a dramatic amount in any case. Possibly they do lose some power in race modes, but I think the overall speed reduction since pre-season has simply been down to them trying to enhance downforce. They started with a very fast, slippery car - add further downforce to that car and all that can happen is a reduction in straight line speed.


95 fiesta si

854 posts

107 months

Wednesday 24th July 2019
quotequote all
i can see Max finishing 3rd in front of both Ferraris. Red Bull have a tendency to become stronger in the second half of a season. Given that his already in front of them now i have a felling he will keep it.

wont beat them in WCC though.....to far behind and Gasly hasnt bagged enough points even if he manages the odd top 4-6 finish

Big Nanas

407 posts

39 months

Wednesday 24th July 2019
quotequote all
Isn't Max already up to his maximum allowance of PU elements?
That's going to cause issues surely.

SturdyHSV

6,951 posts

122 months

Wednesday 24th July 2019
quotequote all
If Gasly manages to finish sensibly and Vettel can be relied on to crash in 50% of the upcoming races (not beyond the realms of possibility unfortunately) it's not totally off the cards for RBR to come 2nd in the WCC.

I expect it's going to end up a lot closer by the end of the season given the inevitable pace of RB development compared to Ferrari, but yes it does somewhat hinge on Gasly's performances really.

exelero

974 posts

44 months

Wednesday 24th July 2019
quotequote all
SturdyHSV said:
If Gasly manages to finish sensibly and Vettel can be relied on to crash in 50% of the upcoming races (not beyond the realms of possibility unfortunately) it's not totally off the cards for RBR to come 2nd in the WCC.

I expect it's going to end up a lot closer by the end of the season given the inevitable pace of RB development compared to Ferrari, but yes it does somewhat hinge on Gasly's performances really.
He woke up now, I think

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Wednesday 24th July 2019
quotequote all
SturdyHSV said:
If Gasly manages to finish sensibly and Vettel can be relied on to crash in 50% of the upcoming races (not beyond the realms of possibility unfortunately) it's not totally off the cards for RBR to come 2nd in the WCC.

I expect it's going to end up a lot closer by the end of the season given the inevitable pace of RB development compared to Ferrari, but yes it does somewhat hinge on Gasly's performances really.
I think that despite Gasly apparently identifying and removing whatever was stuck beneath his throttle peddle, it is still beyond the realms of reasonable to predict them coming second this year.

I do agree they will get closer though, and I'm all but certain post summer break they will have a power increase - the reliability of the PU (even when pushed 'to 11' for half a race..) has been amazing, that's a pretty sure sign that it has more to give.

This year? Meh, it hardly matters. What does matter is that next year, if Gasly is either up to speed or replaced, then they will be battling Ferrari for second all the way. Which is exactly the sort of battle we need to strengthen a season where, in all probability, the dominant top team will be Mercedes once again.

SturdyHSV

6,951 posts

122 months

Wednesday 24th July 2019
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
it is still beyond the realms of reasonable to predict them coming second this year.
Agreed it's perhaps a little unreasonable to predict it, but if SV and CLC are fighting over number 1 spot, given Seb's unfortunate 'crashy' form, one not totally unreasonable double DNF and an RB 3rd / 4th is all that's really needed to properly heat things up...

Realistically if Gasly performs consistently it'll be a lot of trading of 3/4/5/6 positions for the rest of the season amongst the two teams (under the assumption Merc 1/2 everything) so my fingers are crossed at least smile

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Wednesday 24th July 2019
quotequote all
SturdyHSV said:
Agreed it's perhaps a little unreasonable to predict it, but if SV and CLC are fighting over number 1 spot, given Seb's unfortunate 'crashy' form, one not totally unreasonable double DNF and an RB 3rd / 4th is all that's really needed to properly heat things up...

Realistically if Gasly performs consistently it'll be a lot of trading of 3/4/5/6 positions for the rest of the season amongst the two teams (under the assumption Merc 1/2 everything) so my fingers are crossed at least smile
I think vettel will actually get less crashy as he slips further back. In a way, being far enough out of contention for a title or even a second actually takes the pressure off and with nothing to lose he may well perform better.

I think what you're speculating is a combined uprising of Gasly and a continued deterioration of Vettel. I can't see both happening to the extent it could swing the standings in the WCC but I wouldn't complain at all if it did smile

95 fiesta si

854 posts

107 months

Saturday 27th July 2019
quotequote all
might be an opportunity for Redbull to pull in some points over Ferrari at the German GP, maybe they could be on for 2nd in the championship

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Saturday 27th July 2019
quotequote all
95 fiesta si said:
might be an opportunity for Redbull to pull in some points over Ferrari at the German GP, maybe they could be on for 2nd in the championship
It's a huge gulf to make up to battle for second.

But regardless, Max was very good today. Ferrari also managed to f*ck up both drivers chances again, which is always nice for team Red Bull.

95 fiesta si

854 posts

107 months

Saturday 27th July 2019
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
It's a huge gulf to make up to battle for second.

But regardless, Max was very good today. Ferrari also managed to f*ck up both drivers chances again, which is always nice for team Red Bull.
agreed, big ask but possible, especially now Gasly has woken up.

TheDeuce

Original Poster:

5,468 posts

21 months

Saturday 27th July 2019
quotequote all
95 fiesta si said:
agreed, big ask but possible, especially now Gasly has woken up.
If he can maintain his new found pace without 'incidents' in between good result, maybe. Just maybe..

It would be a stunning result for sure. Followed by a record number of sackings at Marenello no doubt.

LaurasOtherHalf

17,285 posts

151 months

Saturday 27th July 2019
quotequote all
I think you underestimate VET if you think GAS can outperform him over a season at present.