If Japanese GP cancelled; Hamilton takes title?

If Japanese GP cancelled; Hamilton takes title?

Author
Discussion

JonChalk

Original Poster:

2,289 posts

56 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
With the timing and location of Typhoon Hagibis uncertain, but looking ominous ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49959221 ), cancellation will see Bottas as only title contender, if my maths is right (107 pts lead over Leclerc and max 104 left from 4 races), so effectively Hamilton will be champion in all respects.

DS240

2,997 posts

164 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
Hamilton was champion many races ago despite the mathematic possibilities involved.

Even when mathematically possible you have to look at how the others could catch up. Barring a serious incident and unable to race, the idea of multiple DNF’s for Hamilton and one person winning each race, just isn’t going to happen.

Hamilton has pretty much only needed to come in 3-4th after the first 5-6 races this year.

TheDeuce

3,136 posts

12 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
JonChalk said:
With the timing and location of Typhoon Hagibis uncertain, but looking ominous ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49959221 ), cancellation will see Bottas as only title contender, if my maths is right (107 pts lead over Leclerc and max 104 left from 4 races), so effectively Hamilton will be champion in all respects.
Well they can't magic another race so if it's cancelled and your maths are correct then.. yes.

The forecast currently shows the worst rain on Friday however, and tailing off early Saturday. Could be a fun start to the weekend, or could come to nothing.

REALIST123

12,011 posts

99 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
DS240 said:
Hamilton was champion many races ago despite the mathematic possibilities involved.

Even when mathematically possible you have to look at how the others could catch up. Barring a serious incident and unable to race, the idea of multiple DNF’s for Hamilton and one person winning each race, just isn’t going to happen.

Hamilton has pretty much only needed to come in 3-4th after the first 5-6 races this year.
This. It’s been clear since May/June and often posted on here that it’s been Mercedes’ to lose.


mattdavies

18 posts

103 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
I have this from another PH member from before Spa, it demonstrates the mountain at that point that the others had to climb.

"8 Grands Prix to go.

In one of the greatest turnarounds in F1 history the Spa win acts as a catalyst for the Scuderia. With the team's allegiance equally split between their multiple WDC driver and their young charger they share the subsequent 8 wins so they each score 4 wins and 4 second places. Verstappen returns to consistent form with a remarkable series of eight 3rd places behind the flying Ferraris. Smarting from the last few GPs Bottas version 3.0 whitewashes his team-mate over the final 8 races and scores a similar sequence of 4ths.

Battling off the midfield runners a strangely demotivated Hamilton saunters in with a 5th position at each G.P from Monza to Interlagos. In Abu Dhabi hit with a 10 place grid penalty for a bad haircut he limps in with an 8th place...and wins the WDC...

I know its all fantasy but it does illustrate the mountain that they all need to climb..."

Teddy Lop

1,725 posts

13 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
mattdavies said:
I have this from another PH member from before Spa, it demonstrates the mountain at that point that the others had to climb.

"8 Grands Prix to go.

In one of the greatest turnarounds in F1 history the Spa win acts as a catalyst for the Scuderia. With the team's allegiance equally split between their multiple WDC driver and their young charger they share the subsequent 8 wins so they each score 4 wins and 4 second places. Verstappen returns to consistent form with a remarkable series of eight 3rd places behind the flying Ferraris. Smarting from the last few GPs Bottas version 3.0 whitewashes his team-mate over the final 8 races and scores a similar sequence of 4ths.

Battling off the midfield runners a strangely demotivated Hamilton saunters in with a 5th position at each G.P from Monza to Interlagos. In Abu Dhabi hit with a 10 place grid penalty for a bad haircut he limps in with an 8th place...and wins the WDC...

I know its all fantasy but it does illustrate the mountain that they all need to climb..."
merc also probably least likely team to take engine penalties too

After Lewis came so close to having 07 sewn up and McLaren just seemed to want to gift it away I'd never say never, a couple of DNFs, coming together with bottas perhaps, pressure now on, poor start meaning tangling with midfield... Although aside from his trademark panicky radio voice, Lewis persona is so unruffled these days, that's one of the key differences between him and Seb these last couple of titles.

oobster

6,240 posts

157 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
Can someone do the Official Japanese 2019 thread?

I was going to have a bash at doing one but I'm crap with formatting.

ukaskew

5,293 posts

167 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
DS240 said:
Hamilton was champion many races ago...
That may be the case but it's still interesting to think about when he might do it. If nothing else it will change the dynamics for the remaining races, that's quite exciting if he's mathematically over the line with quite a few races still to go.

LaurasOtherHalf

15,640 posts

142 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
So even if they cancel the race, he's still not champion?

ajprice

16,531 posts

142 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
Step 2 after Hamilton winning the championship will be to make sure Bottas is far enough ahead of Leclerc and Verstappen to be 2nd place. Whether that's through a few orchestrated pit stops or Bottas being let by on track is up to Toto.

C70R

5,307 posts

50 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
DS240 said:
Hamilton was champion many races ago despite the mathematic possibilities involved.

Even when mathematically possible you have to look at how the others could catch up. Barring a serious incident and unable to race, the idea of multiple DNF’s for Hamilton and one person winning each race, just isn’t going to happen.

Hamilton has pretty much only needed to come in 3-4th after the first 5-6 races this year.
This. So much this.

I honestly can't imagine why anyone would be entertaining a different outcome this season. Even the bookies aren't taking people's money - most have him with odds of 1/100.

Leclerc is next favourite, at 100/1. That's a roughly 1-in-100 chance of him winning... laugh

kambites

57,442 posts

167 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
Pft, surely they can race in 170mph winds? driving

I wonder what the windiest conditions they actually could race in would be? Would the limits be the safety of the cars from an aero stability point of view, or the medical helicopter?


Anyway yes, if it's cancelled Mercedes are guaranteed the WDC. The WCC is still theoretically open but it would pretty much require Ferrari to get 1-2s in every race and Mercedes to fail to finish every race with both cars. As above though, realistically both championships are over regardless of whether this race is run or not.

Edited by kambites on Tuesday 8th October 14:31

TheDeuce

3,136 posts

12 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
kambites said:
Pft, surely they can race in 170mph winds? driving

I wonder what the windiest conditions they actually could race in would be? Would the limits be the safety of the cars from an aero stability point of view, or the medical helicopter?


Anyway yes, if it's cancelled Mercedes are guaranteed the WDC. The WCC is still theoretically open but it would pretty much require Ferrari to get 1-2s in every race and Mercedes to fail to finish every race with both cars. As above though, realistically both championships are over regardless of whether this race is run or not.

Edited by kambites on Tuesday 8th October 14:31
I think helicopters would def be out of the question with typhoon wind speeds, potentially gusting up to 100mph - you can imagine the problems taking off and setting down... And for the cars it would be deadly really, could find themselves cornering under full load and then all their aero downforce instantly disappears. It would be quite comical to watch initially but it would only be a matter of time before a very nasty incident resulted.

So yea, if/when the typhoon crosses over, if it's causing significant gusts, any F1 activity really would have to be halted - it's not just sensationalist media reaction and the race schedules have been affected by Typhoons before. Only during the period when the Typhoon is at it strongest over the track though, before/after, no real danger other than potentially bucket loads of rain in advance of, and in the wake of the wind storm.

The good news is it's entirely possible it will be weakened sufficiently by the time it arrives to not be an issue, and we can look forward to a probably nicely wet circuit smile

StevieBee

7,999 posts

201 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
kambites said:
Pft, surely they can race in 170mph winds? driving
What would be the aero loading of a F1 car travelling forward at 170mph into a 170mph headwind?

I'm guessing it would act rather like a tarmac plough!

Exige77

3,864 posts

137 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
StevieBee said:
kambites said:
Pft, surely they can race in 170mph winds? driving
What would be the aero loading of a F1 car travelling forward at 170mph into a 170mph headwind?

I'm guessing it would act rather like a tarmac plough!
You would heed a hell of a lot more power than they have now to travel at 170mph into a 170mph head wind.



TheDeuce

3,136 posts

12 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
StevieBee said:
What would be the aero loading of a F1 car travelling forward at 170mph into a 170mph headwind?

I'm guessing it would act rather like a tarmac plough!
I think at those sorts of speeds most cars would be producing around 1000-1300 kg's of downforce. If it were possible for them to maintain that speed in the face of wind also hitting them at 170mph, the downforce would roughly double - except it wouldn't be for very long, as the wings would snap off!

Mr_Thyroid

1,756 posts

173 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
StevieBee said:
What would be the aero loading of a F1 car travelling forward at 170mph into a 170mph headwind?

I'm guessing it would act rather like a tarmac plough!
I think at those sorts of speeds most cars would be producing around 1000-1300 kg's of downforce. If it were possible for them to maintain that speed in the face of wind also hitting them at 170mph, the downforce would roughly double - except it wouldn't be for very long, as the wings would snap off!
Drag squares with speed so it would quadruple.

I wonder whether driving into the wind is the biggest problem or whether it's driving with the wind? I wouldn't fancy heading into 130R when there's a chance a gust of wind could mean you effectively have zero downforce.

Having said that, I think wind speed is typically measured at 10 m above ground - at 80 cm (the height of the rear wing) it'll be a bit sheltered.

TheDeuce

3,136 posts

12 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
Mr_Thyroid said:
Drag squares with speed so it would quadruple.

I wonder whether driving into the wind is the biggest problem or whether it's driving with the wind? I wouldn't fancy heading into 130R when there's a chance a gust of wind could mean you effectively have zero downforce.

Having said that, I think wind speed is typically measured at 10 m above ground - at 80 cm (the height of the rear wing) it'll be a bit sheltered.
Good point, yes my bad maths.

Driving into high wind wouldn't be a problem as such, other than it slowing the cars down considerably. I think definitely worse if the wind is with the car, asyou say it would remove downforce - potentially when it's only downforce that is stopping the car flying off a corner. That's precisely the danger of racing in high wind, you could get a gust in the wrong place that would invisibly disable the cars ability to remain on track.

We hear a lot of communication and discussion about crosswinds at some circuits, which is fine so long as they're relatively weak and predictable in their direction. A typhoon on the other hand can be whipping the air about at ground level in a powerful and entirely unpredictable manner.

ukaskew

5,293 posts

167 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
I'm not sure what the road connections to local hospitals are like, but I'm guessing something as simple as the helicopter not being able to safely fly to whatever designated hospital they use would kill any chance of the race happening long before it being too windy for the cars.

Spectator safety would also be high on the list, it's a well attended event from Thursday right through till Sunday.

Teddy Lop

1,725 posts

13 months

Tuesday 8th October
quotequote all
ukaskew said:
I'm not sure what the road connections to local hospitals are like, but I'm guessing something as simple as the helicopter not being able to safely fly to whatever designated hospital they use would kill any chance of the race happening long before it being too windy for the cars.

Spectator safety would also be high on the list, it's a well attended event from Thursday right through till Sunday.
Suzukas a decent sized city no? I believe if road ambulance can make a hospital with the required grade of trauma care in a certain time the race can proceed with or without the helicopter