The Official F1 2025 silly season *contains speculation*

The Official F1 2025 silly season *contains speculation*

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TheDeuce

26,336 posts

76 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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Muzzer79 said:
thegreenhell said:
Lawson, if it is indeed him, is the Perez replacement, not a future Max replacement. They don't want a future Max alongside current Max. You can't expect someone to play number 2 and then suddenly be number 1 when Max leaves, because they will fall short in at least one of those roles.

They don't currently have a future Max on their books. If Max leaves or retires in a year or two then they'll be looking around to sign a new star driver from outwith.
That's not the Red Bull way, at least not in their 20 year history thus far.

Red Bull has always developed and promoted talent from within. The only drivers to score podiums for Red Bull Racing in their history that weren't 'home-grown' are David Coulthard, Mark Webber and Sergio Perez, none of whom were signed as 'star' drivers.

Either

(a) Red Bull think Max won't leave, in which case Lawson is indeed a Perez replacement.

(b) Red Bull think Max might leave and don't want to be left in the cold driver-wise like they were when Vettel went to Ferrari. Lawson, in that case, is a potential Max replacement.

(c) Red Bull don't have many options because it's all a bit of a mess management-wise at the moment. They don't really know what level Lawson is at the moment but they know they can't continue with Perez and Liam is their best option, at least for the short term.

Personally, I think it's (c)
A or b may come to pass, but it's definitely mostly c.

They have an awful driver shortage across their two teams, and obviously Yuki leaves them at the end of next season, I think it highly likely Max will leave then too.

They have the money to buy out drivers from other teams, or simply outbid others for a driver, but I suspect not all drivers would want to driver for RBR and the media work, politics that come with the seat. Of course, if RBR have the/a top car come 2026 that would sway most drivers, but is that likely and can they demonstrate that likelihood ahead of 26'?

So much of their 2026 future and onwards depends on how well their shiny new in house PU development compares to Ferrari and Merc, who both have considerable experience and success in terms of PU development and supply. Also, Honda too, in the AMR penned by their old designer...


KaraK

13,307 posts

219 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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8Ace said:
I'm broadly in agreement with that. For me, Lawson is too raw and I can see some fireworks next year. Yuki is more consistent and had had a good year in 24 so it's a shame to see him overlooked.

As to who gets the RB seat alongside Yuki, I'd personally go for Franco. Hadjar hasn't really stood out to me the way that Bortoleto has and I worry he could be a bit of a hothead and cause issues. Either way, FY25, which looked very exciting at the start of the year is shaping up to be even more fun.
I think it will be Hadjar - while I agree with your assessment of him to do otherwise at this point is admitting the Junior program has failed to provide an F1-capable driver again, and I don't see Marko going for that. While Colapinto's probably the 2nd most impressive rookie of the '24 season he's not quite done enough to make him indispensable. Add in that he would cost them to acquire (rumour was that Williams were asking for some non-trivial amounts of cash) and that would be on top of whatever it's going to cost them to shuffle Checo "I've got a contract" Perez off to the F1 drivers' retirement village. Hadjar probably isn't better than Colapinto (it's hard to say since he didn't complete the F2 season but they would probably have been there or there abouts with each other at the end IMO), but he is a metric feckton cheaper and a fair bit less complicated to put there.


hondajack85

349 posts

9 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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Glad to see manifesting is still a thing.
If things do play out as people will it, then it will be funny in the future if the red bull engine is a dog and the honda is the one to have.
Reb bull pleading phone calls ingnored etc.
Obviously fans can make the red bull engine the best by sheer force of will I guess...

gmaz

4,737 posts

220 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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TheDeuce

26,336 posts

76 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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gmaz said:
As suspected. I wonder if Perez will end up at RB though?

I also assume they'll fit Hadjar in somewhere, at some point. He's good enough for an F1 seat imo, albeit he's a proper grumpy cry baby - so perhaps he really could replace Max rofl

wiliferus

4,153 posts

208 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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TheDeuce said:
As suspected. I wonder if Perez will end up at RB though?

I also assume they'll fit Hadjar in somewhere, at some point. He's good enough for an F1 seat imo, albeit he's a proper grumpy cry baby - so perhaps he really could replace Max rofl
I did wonder this too. If Perez is so adamant he has a contract and is demanding what’s reported to be huge amounts of cash, sticking him in the VCarb would save the Red Bull family a lot of money.
It would however stick a fly in their driver tetris puzzle. Lawson to Red Bull with Max. Yuki staying at RB so no seats left for Hadjar or indeed Colapinto to argue over.

Unless they do a plot twist and boot Yuki as they don’t rate him enough for the first team, so out with the old?

TheDeuce

26,336 posts

76 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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wiliferus said:
TheDeuce said:
As suspected. I wonder if Perez will end up at RB though?

I also assume they'll fit Hadjar in somewhere, at some point. He's good enough for an F1 seat imo, albeit he's a proper grumpy cry baby - so perhaps he really could replace Max rofl
I did wonder this too. If Perez is so adamant he has a contract and is demanding what’s reported to be huge amounts of cash, sticking him in the VCarb would save the Red Bull family a lot of money.
It would however stick a fly in their driver tetris puzzle. Lawson to Red Bull with Max. Yuki staying at RB so no seats left for Hadjar or indeed Colapinto to argue over.

Unless they do a plot twist and boot Yuki as they don’t rate him enough for the first team, so out with the old?
I think they'll just cycle the new kids through the seats they have, unless of course Lawson hits the ground running and they're impressed enough to give him a full season.

Muzzer79

11,394 posts

197 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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I think if Perez is out of RBR, he'll be out of Red Bull altogether.

There's no chatter or anything that he'll be put into VCARB or whatever-it's-called now.


Supersam83

879 posts

155 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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Perez will take his Mexican sponsorship money and end up at Andretti/Cadillac for 2025/2026.

Andretti has always loved having South American drivers in their Indycar teams and will also need the money.

TikTak

2,015 posts

29 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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Muzzer79 said:
I think if Perez is out of RBR, he'll be out of Red Bull altogether.

There's no chatter or anything that he'll be put into VCARB or whatever-it's-called now.
Agreed.

Cadi inbound one would assume with some of those Mexican Pesos.

Muzzer79

11,394 posts

197 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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Supersam83 said:
Perez will take his Mexican sponsorship money and end up at Andretti/Cadillac for 2025/2026.

Andretti has always loved having South American drivers in their Indycar teams and will also need the money.
One would assume it'll be one of Perez, Bottas or Ricciardo - alongside an American, maybe Herta.

Gotta say, out of the three F1 drivers, I'd take Bottas - he's the only one who hasn't under-performed his equipment.

Not sure about Andretti/Cadillac needing the money though. GM is worth over $50bn so $200m-odd to run an F1 team is chicken feed.

MustangGT

12,595 posts

290 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
quotequote all
Muzzer79 said:
Supersam83 said:
Perez will take his Mexican sponsorship money and end up at Andretti/Cadillac for 2025/2026.

Andretti has always loved having South American drivers in their Indycar teams and will also need the money.
One would assume it'll be one of Perez, Bottas or Ricciardo - alongside an American, maybe Herta.

Gotta say, out of the three F1 drivers, I'd take Bottas - he's the only one who hasn't under-performed his equipment.

Not sure about Andretti/Cadillac needing the money though. GM is worth over $50bn so $200m-odd to run an F1 team is chicken feed.
The spending cap maybe only $135m or so, but, MB had revenues of over £545m in 2023. With a profit of £83m it would indicate spend of somewhere north of £400m. There is a great deal excluded from the spending cap which needs to be paid for.

Muzzer79

11,394 posts

197 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
quotequote all
MustangGT said:
Muzzer79 said:
Supersam83 said:
Perez will take his Mexican sponsorship money and end up at Andretti/Cadillac for 2025/2026.

Andretti has always loved having South American drivers in their Indycar teams and will also need the money.
One would assume it'll be one of Perez, Bottas or Ricciardo - alongside an American, maybe Herta.

Gotta say, out of the three F1 drivers, I'd take Bottas - he's the only one who hasn't under-performed his equipment.

Not sure about Andretti/Cadillac needing the money though. GM is worth over $50bn so $200m-odd to run an F1 team is chicken feed.
The spending cap maybe only $135m or so, but, MB had revenues of over £545m in 2023. With a profit of £83m it would indicate spend of somewhere north of £400m. There is a great deal excluded from the spending cap which needs to be paid for.
Much like all other OEMs in F1, I'm sure Cadillac will take every dollar of sponsorship they can get.

But I don't think the 6th largest car company in the world will need to hire a driver because of budget or because they "need the money"

I don't think any team in F1 at the moment is hiring drivers because they need the money......which is a great thing to finally be able to say.

MustangGT

12,595 posts

290 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
quotequote all
Muzzer79 said:
Much like all other OEMs in F1, I'm sure Cadillac will take every dollar of sponsorship they can get.

But I don't think the 6th largest car company in the world will need to hire a driver because of budget or because they "need the money"

I don't think any team in F1 at the moment is hiring drivers because they need the money......which is a great thing to finally be able to say.
Fully agree with that.

Rotary Potato

436 posts

106 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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8Ace said:
I'm broadly in agreement with that. For me, Lawson is too raw and I can see some fireworks next year. Yuki is more consistent and had had a good year in 24 so it's a shame to see him overlooked.

As to who gets the RB seat alongside Yuki, I'd personally go for Franco. Hadjar hasn't really stood out to me the way that Bortoleto has and I worry he could be a bit of a hothead and cause issues. Either way, FY25, which looked very exciting at the start of the year is shaping up to be even more fun.
I think if Franco had been a bit less crashy he would have made that a much more difficult decision. But each cloud of carbon confetti dropped his chances, and I don't think that juice is worth the squeeze for Red Bull/RB any more.

Muzzer79

11,394 posts

197 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
quotequote all
Rotary Potato said:
8Ace said:
I'm broadly in agreement with that. For me, Lawson is too raw and I can see some fireworks next year. Yuki is more consistent and had had a good year in 24 so it's a shame to see him overlooked.

As to who gets the RB seat alongside Yuki, I'd personally go for Franco. Hadjar hasn't really stood out to me the way that Bortoleto has and I worry he could be a bit of a hothead and cause issues. Either way, FY25, which looked very exciting at the start of the year is shaping up to be even more fun.
I think if Franco had been a bit less crashy he would have made that a much more difficult decision. But each cloud of carbon confetti dropped his chances, and I don't think that juice is worth the squeeze for Red Bull/RB any more.
I agree.

First rule of modern F1 is not to crash, given the value of track time and cost in relation to the cost cap.

Franco was fast but, regardless of circumstances, he threw it in the wall too often.

On this basis, coupled with his lack of experience in general, I wouldn't take him.

Red Bull kind-of have to take Hadjar to fit into their internal philosophy. If he doesn't work out, they'll just parachute the next one in.

White-Noise

4,768 posts

258 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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A question to those more in the know.

How does lawson driving and setup style compare to max? I don't mean in terms of aggressiveness I mean, pointiness under or oversteer etc.

I'm wondering if he will be able to get on with the car compared to max vs (questionably amongst other things) Sergio?

This is an exciting change for me to see, will add something new to the mix.

Tks for updates

tele_lover

671 posts

25 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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White-Noise said:
A question to those more in the know.

How does lawson driving and setup style compare to max? I don't mean in terms of aggressiveness I mean, pointiness under or oversteer etc.

I'm wondering if he will be able to get on with the car compared to max vs (questionably amongst other things) Sergio?

This is an exciting change for me to see, will add something new to the mix.

Tks for updates
Not a proper answer to your Q but I followed Lawson in F2 and I can tell you he isn't afraid to make a move.

Him at RBR will be interesting!

Muzzer79

11,394 posts

197 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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Lawson does seem to be quite bolshy.

I can’t see him being so compliant on the moving-over front like Perez has been.

TheDeuce

26,336 posts

76 months

Tuesday 17th December 2024
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Muzzer79 said:
Lawson does seem to be quite bolshy.

I can’t see him being so compliant on the moving-over front like Perez has been.
I recall Perez being considered a pretty potent driver at one point - specifically before and for the first few months of his tenure at RBR. That's the thing, it's not Lawson's style or ability that will determine his performance at the team so much as the role he is expected to deliver and subsequently the car and strategy he is handed.

Albon, Gasly, Perez... Enter: Lawson. Poor sod.

"Red Bull; Clips your wings"


(although that assumes they believe Max will remain longer term as their star driver - I think he will leave at the end of 2025, if they think the same is likely, it could be golden hour for a young talented driver who takes the No2 seat now)